ESPN Mixed Martial Arts

The flyweights debuted in the UFC in February, though the concept of high-octane little dudes had existed for a long time. Long before then, Tachi Palace Fights was the North American home to 125 pounders, and it always felt like the Central California town of Lemoore was in on a secret. Not anymore.

As for the heavyweights?

That’s the dinosaur division in the UFC. It goes back to MMA’s prehistoric times. It’s gone through periods, times of near dormancy. In the beginning, a heavyweight of 500 pounds was allowed entrance into the eight-sided cage, and he’d take on Gi-donning fighters the size of thimbles. In those days, there were talks of moats that thankfully never came to be.

In the middle times, when weight classes were better designated, a guy barely over the minimum weight of 206 pounds became king. Twelve pounds of it were heart, the same weight as the belt.

This was known as the Couture Era. It was revisited, but always short-lived.

Then came Brock Lesnar and the rift of perceptions. He was a circus, a bull, a collegiate wrestler, a bona-fide martial artist, a charlatan, a mercenary, a hermit and a comic book character with a sworded thorax all into one. He couldn’t take a punch; he had more heart than we knew. He was a novelty; he is a future hall of famer.

We still have no idea how to assess him.

That’s part of the reason that, as we arrive at UFC 146, there’s a feeling of something inaugural going on even though the division has always been. Something like the "Modern Era" of the UFC heavies is finally upon us.

This is the era of Junior dos Santos and his level-changing boxing quicks and heavy hands, and Cain Velasquez and his legit wrestling. This is Antonio Silva, and the resilient Frank Mir. It’s Alistair Overeem, so long as Lorenzo Fertitta stands behind him when his suspension is up. It’s Lavar Johnson and Stipe Miocic and beanstalk fighters like Stefan Struve and returning fighters like Shane Carwin.

It’s a lot of guys, rather than a few. And for once we are about to have a consolidated idea of where the heavyweight division stands. The division has gotten so hot that Chad Griggs had to get out of the kitchen. Soon Daniel Cormier and Josh Barnett will enter the mix. Jon Jones will be there before we know it, but right now the division has newfound depth. And it’s deep enough that when MMA Fighting’s Ariel Helwani asked Dana White about Cormier’s future, White replied that he wouldn’t mind seeing Cormier as a light heavyweight.

When the Strikeforce heavyweight grand prix champion looks like a spare piece to the company president, you know the division has arrived.

Saturday night’s fight card is historic in that way. Gone are the days of Andrei Arlovski and Tim Sylvia and a deck of middling hopefuls. Depending on how things play out in Las Vegas, the next title fight could be anything. It could be Velasquez/dos Santos II. It could be Mir/Velasquez, the fight that was supposed to happen anyway. It could be Bigfoot/JDS, or Cormier/JDS, or Mir/Cormier. This is the first time ever that not just one scenario makes sense, but they all do. Better yet, people would be excited to see any of those match-ups. In other words, UFC 146 in all its historical significance is hardly the culminating point.

For once, there is a broad horizon. This feels more like the beginning than the usual pitch. For once, heavyweights have something in common with the lightweights and the welterweights. The 265-pound division has the feeling of an ongoing story playing out, rather than one wrapping up.

The novelty isn’t an ageless wonder like Couture beating guys half his age and size, or a pro wrestler turned fighter who froths at the mouth and tramples people like it’s the running of the bulls. The novelty is that the division has the funny feeling of something complete.

And that can’t help but be anything other than exciting for fans of big boy MMA.

Junior dos Santos has told Frank Mir that he is too slow to win the UFC heavyweight title, and the Brazilian warned the rest of the division that nobody is taking his belt for the foreseeable future. More »

Frank Mir claims his capacity to stand with out-and-out strikers has been vastly overlooked heading into his UFC 146 heavyweight title bout with Junior Dos Santos. More »

Frank Mir has turned up the heat on Junior Dos Santos ahead of their UFC 146 main event, insisting the heavyweight champion has "no chance" of winning if the fight hits the mat. More »

Training camps have become their own game of roulette, and Dominick Cruz -- who trains fiendishly year round -- is the latest casualty.

Cruz tore his anterior cruciate ligament Thursday while prepping for his July 7 title fight with Urijah Faber, and now 2012 will pass by without the UFC bantamweight champion ever stepping into the octagon.

Bummer.

When 10 top contenders can’t beat you, ACL’s are around to remind us that there is such a thing as destructibility. Look at Georges St. Pierre, who suffered the exact same fate. It’s all eggshells before fight night, because injuries remain stubbornly indiscriminate (and prefight drug screenings have a way of coming back hot).

The big difference between Cruz and St. Pierre? St. Pierre’s injury took Carlos Condit with him.

In Faber’s case, he’ll still be dealt a fresh new face, likely in the form of Brazilian Renan Barao or the 21-year old Michael McDonald. Neither one of them provide a gussied-up, trilogy-fight storyline, but both stand a fantastic chance of dialing Faber’s mystique back for good -- which is to say, both have the power to derail Faber’s trilogy fight with Cruz forever.

In a game centered on hype, situations change at far greater speeds than belts. Very likely, whoever wins the rejiggered UFC 148 bout will have the placeholder belt and will wait out Cruz’s timetable for recovery to unify things.

And this is where things fall into a familiar sludge.

How many titlists and top contenders can be on the shelf at once? How many actual and theoretical belts can we introduce without it becoming charades? Whatever the case, matchmakers Joe Silva and Sean Shelby are becoming fluent in the laws of attrition. Taking a look at the tops of the UFC’s weight classes right now -- with all the conditions, exceptions, suspensions and voluntary sabbaticals -- most are a total mess.

St. Pierre will fight only once this year (hopefully), and Anderson Silva possibly the same (but hopefully not). Junior dos Santos is fighting in his first title defense in a few weeks (knock on wood), yet the top contender he was supposed to face -- Alistair Overeem -- is suspended. Likewise, Nick Diaz is suspended at welterweight.

Circumstantially, the latest contenders are putting themselves on hiatus, too. Nate Diaz says he’ll wait out Frankie Edgar/Benson Henderson, a fight that’ll likely take place in September. That means the earliest we see No. 1 contender Diaz again is in December. It’s even rockier for Johny Hendricks at welterweight. If he waits out the tentative November showdown between Condit and St. Pierre, he won’t surface again this year.

Title fights in 2012 are becoming scarce. Out of eight weight classes, we’ve had three in five months, and are on pace for maybe 14. Even the flyweight coronation was postponed due to a bumbled math job in Australia. Big fights are being made, and big fights are falling through. It’s the nature of the fight game to roll with the punches, but what a collision course of rotten luck.

What can you do? To use the most common refrain in MMA right now, it is what it is. The UFC can’t issue a memorandum that says, “tread light before the fight.” With Cruz out for the next nine months, it means opportunity for either Barao or McDonald. And the UFC has always been very good at branding optimism and opportunism above all else.

As for this year they have to, because that's what's for sale.

As one might expect, Frank Mir found it incredibly difficult to prepare for Cain Velasquez when circumstances -- and every story he read on the Internet -- said he’d be fighting Junior dos Santos.

The UFC announced over the weekend Mir would replace Alistair Overeem in next month’s heavyweight title fight against dos Santos in Las Vegas. Overeem, who is scheduled to appear in front of the Nevada State Athletic Commission on Tuesday, failed a random drug test in Las Vegas late last month.

Technically, Overeem hasn’t failed to receive a license from the commission yet, meaning there was an outside chance he’d still be available on May 26. That meant until the UFC’s announcement, Mir had been in limbo on whether he’d fight dos Santos or his originally scheduled opponent, Cain Velasquez.

Realistically, he admitted, his thoughts had more or less settled on the title fight.

“I would be lying if I said it didn’t pull me away from my preparations for Velasquez,” Mir told ESPN.com. “The fact it came through was a good thing, because I already had one eye on dos Santos.”

In the early parts of camp, Mir was going home and watching Internet videos of college wrestling matches, according to his head trainer, Jimmy Gifford. Once the Overeem news was announced, those late-night film sessions mysteriously switched to videos of boxing classics.

“He came in saying, ‘Yeah, I watched Joe Louis fights last night,’” Gifford said. “I told him, 'I thought you were watching wrestling.'

“I’m actually happy the fight got changed. We were like everyone else -- reading the Internet, saying this guy tested positive; what’s up? He was already pretty checked out.”

The best stabilizing force in the camp, according to Mir, was his father. He wouldn’t argue the fact it looked as though his son was headed to a title fight, but still found a fairly creative yet effective way to keep the focus on Velasquez.

“My father said, ‘Even if they give us dos Santos, what if he gets hurt?’” Mir said. “Oh, they’ll put me back in with Cain. OK. We’ll prepare for Cain.”

One month out, the focus has officially turned to dos Santos, and it’s a fight Mir and his camp are confident in despite the shortened camp.

A positive for the former champ is that although he was preparing for a three-round fight instead of five, the fact that Velasquez fights at a “middleweight’s pace,” borrowing a phrase from Gifford, forced Mir into the best physical shape of his career.

“In all honesty, I think three rounds with Cain is as vicious as five with anyone else,” Mir said. “As far as what he brings to a fight, Cain is a lawnmower. He keeps moving forward. He threw 300 punches in the Cheick Kongo fight. I don’t think some welterweights can match that. So I am in better shape cardio-wise now than I have been at any point in my life.”

While Mir’s team prepares for a title fight, Overeem released a statement Monday that the positive drug test resulted from an “anti-inflammatory medication that was mixed with testosterone,” prescribed to him by his doctor for a rib injury.

Overeem stated he was unaware the substance contained testosterone, which led to his elevated levels.

When asked if that’s an issue he’s ever dealt with in his 11-year career, Mir said he’s made it a point to inform the promotion he’s fighting for exactly what substances he’s on to avoid similar issues.

“Anytime a doctor tells me to take something, I’m immediately telling the UFC,” Mir said. “They have doctors on staff. So, I say, ‘Hey, I have an injury. This is what I’m going to do.’ I’m just very transparent with everything I do. That way, I feel if my doctor gives me something, if I have everyone on board and tell everyone what’s going on, it can be immediately addressed.”

UFC president Dana White has ruled out the option of having Mark Hunt fight Junior dos Santos for the heavyweight title. More »

UFC light heavyweight champion Jon Jones has confirmed that, under normal circumstances, he would have been happy to step up and fight the heavyweight champion at UFC 146, but not if that champion is Junior Dos Santos. More »

In the “who’s out there to challenge Jon Jones” discussion, Alexander Gustafsson is the light heavyweight intrigue right now. He is the horizon, the challenge looming at the end of the Mayan calendar for the current champion. Should he lose to Thiago Silva this weekend in his native Sweden in the biggest fight of his young career, intrigue becomes pretty scarce in what has traditionally been the UFC’s glamour division.

So what happened to the well depth at 205 pounds?

Jones happened. Jones happened so fast and Jones pummeled so furious that people are already talking about what he can do to as a heavyweight. Everybody knows that imagination is always first to round the curve, but in this case it feels like meteorological forecasting. Jones is a storm front. In fact, he himself says his days at 205 pounds are numbered, because those skinny legs that earned him the nickname “Bones” will eventually fill in.

And all of this is conversational because Jones has yet to meet his equivalent in a weight class that had for so long been defined by parity. He’s already defended the belt more than anybody since Chuck Liddell’s run from 2005-2007. Since then Quinton Jackson, Forrest Griffin, Rashad Evans, Lyoto Machida -- remember the Machida Era? -- and Mauricio Rua have tried on the belt, couldn’t handle its weight, and ceded it. They’ve all become afterthoughts to Jones’ run -- except for Griffin (who no longer looks like an imposition) and Evans (whom he faces in Atlanta on April 21).

None of the above has made it even so far as the judge’s scorecards.

If Jones defeats Evans at UFC 145, he will still have to get by Dan Henderson, who has been patiently waiting in line since November. After Henderson? As much of a stretch as it seems, it’s Gustafsson. That is, if Gustafsson continues to win. If Silva triumphs in Stockholm over its native son, it could be the heavyweight division sooner rather than later for Jones.

In other words, it’s possible that Jones will have cleaned out the division by summer of 2012. Nobody cleans out divisions nowadays -- nobody. And you know the power of his star is immense when there’s nothing far-fetched in any of this, except for the usual cautions that come with taking anything for granted. For as dominant as Jones is, this sport was not founded on foregone conclusions. If there is a wrench, it looks like this: Jones beats Jones. This is what Greg Jackson and the entire Albuquerque crew are guarding against as much as they are Evans’ takedown ability.

But the next two weeks could clue us in a little bit on Jon Jones’ (extrapolated) future. If Gustafsson holds court, he will have effectively graduated to title talk, which is big in a division of expiring names. Gustafsson might still have to win one more in pursuit of the 205-pound title, but he’d at least appear as viable. In the game of marketable matchmaking, appearances might have to do.

Would Silva look as viable? It’s possible. But right now Silva’s biggest wins are against guys that looked far more imposing before he fought them than after. Guys like Houston Alexander, Keith Jardine and Brandon Vera (which was overturned to a "no contest" due to steroids). Silva is set further back than Gustafsson. Even if he beat the Swede he’d have a harder time convincing the masses that he’s the fork in Jones’ road.

The bottom line is this: If the two favorites in the next two UFC main events win, that means a collision course is setting up. If Jones wins and Gustafsson doesn’t? It’s one last defense with Dan Henderson, and then a lot of talk about how Jones will match up with the likes of Junior dos Santos, Frank Mir and Cain Velasquez.

Dana White’s twitter account says Frank Mir will still be fighting Cain Velasquez on May 26. Just about everything else, though, suggests otherwise.

In a response to a fan on the social networking site Friday, the UFC president wrote, “Cain vs. Mir will happen,” referencing the UFC 146 co-main event scheduled for next month.

Many interpreted White’s statement as the end of speculation that Mir would be the one to replace Alistair Overeem in the night’s main event, should he fail to receive a license from the commission after recently failing a random drug test in Las Vegas.

As much fun as it’s been for fans to rally behind Mark Hunt or fantasize about the sight of a certain Russian in the Octagon, once May 26 rolls around, chances are we’ll be right back where the speculation started -- meaning, with Mir.

Am I calling White a liar? Not exactly. What, then, did that tweet mean exactly?

Remember for a second how White found out that Overeem, a man who’s faced accusations of steroid use in the past and was barely licensed for his UFC debut against Brock Lesnar, tested hot.

It was right before he was scheduled to hop on a conference call with members of the Canadian media. So, you’ve got the UFC president finding out one of his major summer fights is in jeopardy moments before entering a setting where anything he says becomes very public.

The situation led to a few very candid responses from White on how he felt about the news. He was admittedly “beyond p---ed.” He implied Overeem to be “an absolute moron,” and even hinted the promotion might cut him.

Nothing wrong with those statements -- except that Overeem isn’t quite cooked yet. The UFC is committed to seeing what happens when he applies for a license on April 24 before it moves on.

Even though the likelihood of Overeem getting a license is downright awful, it certainly doesn’t help his small chances if the president of the promotion basically acknowledges his guilt before the hearing.

Clearly, White is not in the wrong for saying what he did. Seems like a rather large majority agrees with him. It does the UFC no good, though, at this time. Watch. It’s unlikely White, or any other UFC spokesman, says anything negative regarding Overeem until after the hearing.

So, it’s possible that by saying, “No, the most obvious choice to replace Overeem -- Mir -- isn’t being considered,” is actually an attempt to say, “Well, hopefully no replacement will be necessary at all.”

The reason everyone pegged Mir as Plan B is because he’s the only viable option -- from a competitive standpoint, marketing standpoint, common sense standpoint.

Until the UFC announces “Dos Santos vs. Mir,” nothing is certain. If you’re Mir, of course, continue training with Velasquez in mind -- but don’t be afraid to schedule a boxing session, too. Just in case.

Alistair Overeem hasn't spoken publicly since news broke Wednesday that he tested positive for an increased testosterone-to-epitestosterone ratio. He probably doesn't have to for Josh Barnett to understand what the 31-year-old Dutch heavyweight is feeling right now.

Barnett, of course, paid a heavy price when he failed a prefight drug test in California almost three years ago. Lost was a huge payday against Fedor Emelianenko, then ranked No. 1 in the division and widely considered among the best competitors in mixed martial arts. The loss of the fight was also the impetus for Affliction Entertainment going under, a situation that rattled the business, fostered the growth and subsequent decline of Strikeforce, and eventually led to Zuffa's move to consolidate the industry.

It's unclear what penalties Overeem will suffer, but similar to Barnett (32-5) he could easily surrender a huge payday as well as the most important fight of his career -- a UFC title tilt against Junior dos Santos. Hey, at least he doesn't have to worry about bringing down a promotion, though he might not be around to partake in UFC's continuing prosperity.

Still, with dark clouds currently hanging over his head, Overeem should take solace in the notion of Barnett's return the UFC for the first time in a decade -- the message being: No matter how badly someone messes up, Zuffa is prone to forgive under the right circumstances.

Barnett's new lease on a UFC life is incumbent on defeating Daniel Cormier on May 19 to cap off the Strikeforce heavyweight grand prix tournament. If that happens, UFC president Dana White has suggested that the 34-year-old American could enter the Octagon for the first time since stopping Randy Couture in 2002 to claim the promotional title.

How would he fare against the men ranked above him (which for the time being continues to include Overeem)?

Frank Mir

At stake would be the title of best submission grappler in the heavyweight division. Mir, 32, may have usurped that title by breaking off a piece of Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, and you know Barnett would love the opportunity to make a point against the former UFC heavyweight champion.

On the floor it's essentially an even fight, though Barnett is much better when he fights from the top. Mir's strength comes in attacking arms. Barnett can do that too; he just prefers the leg techniques born out of catch-wrestling. I can't help but think a grappling-heavy fight between the two would be incredibly appealing.

Both have shown the ability to hurt opponents while standing, but Mir (16-5) owns a slight edge here based on recent results.

If they fought 10 times ... they'd split.

Cain Velasquez

Barnett would carry a significant experience advantage over Velasquez (9-1) and he wouldn't get pushed around by a mid-sized heavyweight.

Barnett utilizes his size and athleticism to squash other grapplers, and if Velasquez winds up on his back he may not stand up or get a reversal. You do not want to face a situation where Barnett establishes top control. He is much more dangerous from the top than Brock Lesnar ever was because he'll string together submissions, is very adept at guard-passing, and is happy to grind away at someone's facial features with his elbows.

Barnett cedes ground in this matchup when it comes to speed, striking technique, and pure wrestling. Velasquez, 29, would have to keep moving against Barnett, never let the bigger man tie him up in the clinch, especially along the fence, and stay off bottom. That's obviously the key.

If they fought 10 times ... Velasquez wins 6 of 10.

Alistair Overeem

Filling a column full of "ifs," Overeem's status remains the largest. So in this scenario, the reprieve Barnett could receive from Dana White extends to Overeem.

Now to the matchup. Overeem is a different class of striker, and while Barnett might be tempted to engage the Dutch fighter's strength it would be a mistake. Getting Overeem (36-11) to the floor isn't easy. Toying around in the clinch, which Barnett does not mind doing, might result in a rocket of a knee puncturing his midsection. Barnett does not react well to body shots, as proven by Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic, so that could be a major factor.

Barnett has to put the fight on the floor and push the pace against Overeem, whose stamina can be a question mark.

This is a violent matchup, one that surely wouldn't last the distance.

If they fought 10 times ... Barnett wins 6 of 10.

Junior dos Santos

The current UFC heavyweight champion is all about speed, movement and anvil-like punches. He's as tall as Barnett with about 25 less pounds to move around.

Barnett would lose if he stood with dos Santos, simple as that. The question is, can he take the 27-year-old Brazilian champion down without absorbing too much damage?

Barnett would be best served by roughing up dos Santos (14-1) against the fence, fighting for takedowns (just not from the outside so dos Santos can counter with knees or sprawl on the American's head), and establishing top control. Presuming he can do those things, he can win. Otherwise chances are good he'd be rendered unconscious.

If they fought 10 times ... dos Santos wins 7 of 10.

Another day, another hot urine test, another busted main event ... and, alas, another (potential) domino sequence. So continues life in the mixed martial arts.

This time it’s Alistair Overeem who raised the red flag, the very same Overeem who eluded such conflict ahead of UFC 141 by simply skipping a mandatory drug test. If nothing else, this is a man who knows how to poke at the chest of scrutiny. Overeem showed up March 27 for the UFC 146 hype conference in Las Vegas apparently unaware that this could be a perfect moment for the Nevada State Athletic Commission to spring a “random” test on him (part of the deal from the Brock Lesnar fight fallout). Out of six heavyweights tested, only Overeem’s came back positive. His testesterone/epitestosterone registered a 14:1 ratio, more than double the particularly generous threshold in Nevada of 6:1.

So much for the biggest fight of his career. And all that promotional material the UFC was creating, the big pay day, the belt he could have added to his collection? Moot.

As Dana White said upon hearing the news, he doesn’t have a plan B. Meaning, at least at the time of this writing, waiting out Overeem’s “B” sample becomes the plan B by default. Problem is, those results could take a couple of weeks to get back, and “B” samples rarely contradict “A” samples anyway. But the show must go on. White has said that dos Santos will defend his title at UFC 146 whether it’s against Overeem or somebody else.

In other words, it’s time to speculate into these somebody else’s, and -- just for theatrical value -- assess their chances in carefully considered odds.

Frank Mir

The NSAC’s Keith Kizer sent out the mass email at 4:40 p.m. ET with the results of the UFC 146 news conference tests. Twitter went wild. At 6:15 ET, Mir released a statement via email saying, “I would be excited if given the opportunity to compete for the UFC’s heavyweight title at UFC 146 if the reports released earlier today regarding Alistair Overeem failing his "A" sample drug test are true.” Mir went on to say it’s a dream of his to be the first three-time champion. He swooped in quicker on a dangling title shot than he did on Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira’s ill-placed limb.

His case: How many times have we heard Dana White say he admires it when guys step up? That’s what Mir’s doing. A no-hesitation lobby job, knowing that out of the full panoramic spectrum of heavies he has the best credentials to get the shot, having won three in a row. He also snapped dos Santos’ friend Big Nog’s arm, which makes him a sort of dark cloud gathering over the champion.

Chances of him getting it: 2-1

Cain Velasquez

Velasquez had the belt for 13 months, but lost it in the 64th second of his first title defense against dos Santos. How’s that for anticlimax? Though a rematch between Velasquez and dos Santos might appear sort of uninspired, the fact is, there were conditions.

His case: Velasquez was dealing with a bum knee that night in November, but couldn’t back out of a fight that was hyped as the biggest thing since Frazier/Ali across FOX platforms. It was a red carpet affair, the long-stemmed aperitif to the seven-year network deal, the bonus bout meant to tempt the semi-curious masses into peeping. Whether coaxed or not, he went through with it, and lost. Everybody knows we didn’t see the best Cain Velasquez that night, just as everybody knows we probably would this time through.

Chances of getting it: 3-1

Mark Hunt

It seems ridiculous to even type Mark Hunt in this space, but Hunt is a fan favorite and a surprisingly popular choice for the gig. Have people lost their marbles in wanting to see a resurrected 38-year old New Zealander step in there with the champion? Is this not a meritocracy? The answer is no: This is a pinch. And so long as Hunt is a nice guy, a long-shot Cinderella and a bad basher to boot, he’ll get the sentimentalist’s vote. We’re a nation of softies.

His case: Hunt was a liability to the UFC when he came over, a barnacle on the Pride purchase. Hunt lost to Sean stinking McCorkle in his Octagon debut, further exacerbating the situation. Then the unthinkable started happening. Hunt knocked out Chris Tuchscherer, decisioned Ben Rothwell, and then flattened Cheick Kongo. Talk about resuscitation! And here we thought we had lost him.

Chances of getting it: 15-1

Dan Henderson

Henderson as a candidate sort of slowly dawned on people. It went like this -- “Henderson? LOL!” to “isn’t he waiting for Jon Jones-Rashad Evans to play out?” to “you know something, that dude’s batty enough to do it” to “Hendo would plant JDS into the soft earth!” The truth is, Henderson has flirted with the idea of fighting at heavyweight -- which he’s done before, most recently against Fedor Emelianenko in Strikeforce -- and he doesn’t concern himself with the usual neuroses of modern day fighters (short notice, size discrepancies, JDS’s mangling hooks). Why? You tell Henderson he can’t do something, he gets defiant. It’s his most admirable trait. And he likes money, which is his more cliché one.

His case: Besides willingness? He wouldn’t have to cut weight. He could still feasibly keep his spot in line at light heavyweight regardless of outcome with the relative meshing of schedules and the dearth of viable contenders behind him. Remember that he fought Quinton Jackson (205) and Anderson Silva (185) in back-to-back title challenges in 2007-2008.

Chances of getting it: 12-1

Fedor Emelianenko

This is more of a fan’s choice than a UFC one. Dana White reluctantly gave into the idea of signing Emelianenko a couple of years ago, offered him wheelbarrows of cash that would turn other comparable fighters faces purple with rage, and was rebuffed. White’s assessment then -- that Fedor's people were crazy and crooked -- is probably his assessment now. Negotiations between M-1 and the UFC ride along the Cold War divide. But given that White’s running refrain has always been to give the people the fights they want to see, you can’t just accept it as impossible. Fedor still has his legions. He still sells.

His case: What, beating Jeff Monson over the course of three rounds doesn’t say it all? Flattening Satoshi Ishii doesn’t carry the right momentum? The “Last Emperor” and a million loyalists care what you think. And besides, the idea of Fedor against Junior dos Santos has something beyond novelty appeal. In the spirit of a fight, it has actual curiosity.

Chances of getting it: About the same as the Ukraine opening up Chernobyl as a tourist attraction next week.

On March 27, following a news conference in Las Vegas hyping UFC 146, half a dozen fighters were subjected to unannounced tests for drugs of abuse and, more to the point, the performance-enhancing variety.

Five of the six -- UFC champion Junior dos Santos, former titleholders Cain Velasquez and Frank Mir, as well as Antonio Silva and Roy Nelson -- came back as they should: clean.

Alistair Overeem, long the subject of speculation in regards to performance-enhancing drug use, did not.

According to the Nevada State Athletic Commission, Overeem rendered a smoking gun of a testosterone-to-epitestosterone ratio.

(The NSAC allows for a 6:1 ratio, 50 percent higher than the World Anti-Doping Agency standard. Overeem’s elevated T/E ratio was 14:1, according to the commission.)

Ironically, the last person who should have been caught off guard by the randomness of the commission's request is Overeem. The Dutch heavyweight was well aware that prior to June he owed the NSAC two urine tests at times and places of their choosing.

You remember why?

Overeem, 31, took a month to provide a suitable urine sample following a request by the NSAC leading up to his fight versus Brock Lesnar on Dec. 30. The muscular heavyweight had 48 hours from the date of the request, Nov. 17, to get himself to an accredited facility. He did not do so until Dec. 14.

A murky story led the NSAC to issue Overeem a conditional one-year license. Commissioners, right to be wary, decreed that Overeem submit himself to further testing. He was clean the rest of the way leading up to his destruction of Lesnar, earning a title shot against dos Santos that brought him back to Las Vegas just over a week ago.

Overeem, who hasn't addressed the NSAC's allegations of an elevated T/E ratio, had to consider the possibility that he would get tested.

Right?

Overeem claimed on multiple occasions that he never used performance-enhancing drugs. His massive build, the “Ubereem” effect, was a product of eating well and lifting weights.

Yet, after all that posturing, he’s seemingly dirty.

So what happened? Why the positive result? One of the worst bets in Vegas history? Was Overeem too arrogant to consider the possibility of a positive test? A false positive? What?

Overeem deserves an opportunity to respond. But will a commission that already felt toyed with remain open to whatever he has to tell them? I tend to think not. Presuming Overeem doesn’t have an unbelievably convincing argument, he’ll lose that conditional license, and perhaps even his place in the UFC. Oh yes, he’ll have to answer to his promoter too, which just unveiled its marketing campaign for UFC 146 as tickets went on sale Friday.

UFC president Dana White learned of the news while speaking on a conference call with Canadian media and was understandably apoplectic.

How could this happen? Fighters have to be so stupid to use, he said.

After being around Overeem over the years, I'm comfortable saying he doesn't come across as a stupid man. Flying into Nevada, owing the commission two tests the way he did, odds were good they’d come calling.

Overeem's test had to be the least surprising pop quiz in history.

Yet he failed.

The thing is, one could argue that UFC’s mixed-messaging on PEDs is partly to blame. At a minimum it’s become a source of growing and legitimate criticism leveled at the organization.

Take Brazilian Thiago Silva, for example. Not only did he use steroids, he attempted to deliver fake urine to Nevada officials to cover it up. And yet next week, in his first bout back, he's headlining UFC's debut event in Sweden.

If Overeem is indeed guilty of what's been accused, the UFC should do to him what they needed to do to Silva and others of this ilk. Use is rampant and the only thing that will shake fighters out of feeling like a.) it's OK to do or b.) they have to in order to compete, is alter the perception that taking this stuff is how business is done.

You do that by shaking the earth, rattling the status quo.

And isn't that exactly how White and Lorenzo Fertitta have operated the UFC for the last decade? Yet White said recently it's "impossible" to keep tabs on the drug-enhancing proclivities of some 375 fighters he has under contract. The man who wants to make MMA the biggest sport in the world claimed something was "impossible," which I didn't think was possible.

Let's give White the benefit of the doubt. Maybe it is logistically impossible and fiscally impractical to monitor everyone all the time. Maybe White is also correct when he says the matter of testing fighters belongs in the hands of the regulatory bodies, not promoters. But isn't there something Zuffa, in its role as the sport's dominant institution, could do?

Common sense -- i.e. use, get caught, bye bye -- would be a much better option and deterrent than anything currently in place -- i.e. use, get caught, come back following suspension and receive a rich fight. Repeating the latter accomplishes nothing except fulfilling some people's definition of insanity. It could be argued all this actually serves as a deterrent to preventing this sort of stuff.

Absent that, expect this garbage to persist until, eventually, something not so trivial as losing a chance to crown the UFC heavyweight titleholder as MMA's linear heavyweight king for the first time in years (a pending reality when Overeem was set to meet dos Santos) is lost. Nothing is guaranteed, of course, but it sure seems headed that way.

Former UFC heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez is in a focused mood ahead of his UFC 146 encounter with Frank Mir, and he admits his recent loss to Junior Dos Santos will be the driving force that fires the rest of his career. More »

A couple of months from now, the UFC will go high concept.

Or at least, heavy concept.

Last week’s confirmation that a bout between Stefan Struve and Mark Hunt will open the main card of UFC 146 on May 26 means that the show will be an all-heavyweight affair. For the first time in the company’s modern history, it will put nothing but 265-pound fights on the pay-per-view portion of a broadcast.

It’s the kind of thing that’ll look great on a poster -- Five Exciting Heavyweight Fights! -- and the cherry on top will be Junior dos Santos defending his UFC title for the first time against the mountainous Alistair Overeem.

The public’s fascination with heavyweights is well-documented, so this particular promotional gambit can’t possibly hurt in the lead-up to UFC 146. Whether or not it significantly moves the needle while a slew of equally promotable, but lighter fighters are left on the undercard, though, remains to be seen.

Either way, it could be fairly instructive for the future.

Here’s the problem, though: Our preoccupation with heavyweights, aside from the sheer spectacle of it all, is rooted in boxing, where conventional wisdom dictates that the bigger the dude, the better the chance of fireworks. In MMA however, this doesn’t always translate. Sure, heavyweights can produce crowd-pleasing knockouts, but with four-ounce gloves, so too can flyweights. For the practical application of this, see: Benavidez, Joseph.

Though certainly in the running for most popular, MMA’s heavyweight division is also arguably the one most likely to let you down. Heavyweights get tired. Heavyweights are often inexperienced. Heavyweight bouts can be over before you know it, or they can slog to 15-minute decisions that seem to take an hour. In other words, in this sport, 265-pound fights are typically either great or terrible, with very little gray area in between.

That makes UFC 146 a fairly significant risk for those who shell out the dough to watch it.

The heavyweight division has produced some marvelous entertainment in recent months -- stunning comeback wins from Cheick Kongo and Frank Mir both come to mind -- but those stellar outcomes feel more like the exception than the rule.

More often than not, heavyweight MMA fights go one of two ways: They become a boat race to see who can be first to stick one in the other guy’s ear, ala dos Santos’ 64 second title victory over Cain Velasquez last November, or then they run the risk of becoming tepid and exasperating letdowns like Overeem’s decision win over Fabricio Werdum in the opening round of the Strikeforce grand prix last June.

When they're great, they're great. Worst case scenario? Well, when a heavyweight fight goes bad, there's nothing worse in all of MMA.

They can be so dreadful that fights like Gabriel Gonzaga’s epic staring contest with Kevin Jordan still haunt our dreams, even though it happened at UFC 56, a little more than six years ago. That bout was so painful that not even Gonzaga’s third round knockout victory via Superman punch could save it ... and that’s bad.

Perhaps the best testament to the reliably unreliable nature of the heavyweight division is the overall history of the UFC 265-pound title, where inconsistency, short championship reigns and freak accidents have always been the natural order of things. Stays at the top are fleeting, and they are just as likely to end with a whimper as a bang.

It’s likely there will be some great heavyweight fights at UFC 146. There is also a good chance some of the fights end up limping to the finish line. Those are the breaks when it comes to the heavies.

Personally, give me a card full of welterweights (and lighter) any day. They might not look quite as good on the poster, but they typically bring more action from bell to bell.