ESPN Mixed Martial Arts

In the UFC, the latest winner will always have the most compelling case. That’s the nature of hype, and hype has always been the game. More specifically, hype is the essence that drives the thing forward.

By know everybody knows this. And if they don’t, they should pay attention to Donald Cerrone.

Last week Nate Diaz beat Jim Miller to claim the disputed top contender seed behind titleholder Benson Henderson and challenger Frankie Edgar. On Tuesday, Cerrone beat Jeremy Stephens for three loud rounds only to make his case even louder in the aftermath: He’d like a fight in Denver at UFC 150, against anybody, but preferably against Nate Diaz, who put a surgical beatdown on him in December.

This was of course fishing on “Cowboy’s” part.

Cerrone knows the likelihood of the UFC granting a rematch of a one-sided fight that happened only a few months ago isn’t great. Having thought of that, he made another point clear: That he wasn’t himself that night in December. With that being his fifth fight in 2011, he was just an old husk, not the full ear of corn. Besides, he fought a dumb fight. Just too stubborn.

Now, the Donald Cerrone that methodically picked apart Jeremy Stephens -- that was the genuine article. That’s the one who would threaten Diaz’s bearings if the UFC would give him the chance.

Cowboy was just planting seeds. He knows he has a point. He was smart enough to make his point while momentum was on his side, having just beat Stephens impressively. Forget that Stephens isn’t a top ten lightweight, in the 155-pound division jockeying for position is mandatory. On UFC on Fuel’s post-fight show, Chael Sonnen said he’d like to see Cerrone catapulted into a title shot right away. That’s how swift the tide rolls back in for the latest victors.

Problem is, there will be others soon enough, and they will have arguments of merit and timing and will carry updated casualty lists.

So, just where do things stand in the UFC’s lightweight division? Because on June 22 in Atlantic City, N.J., Clay Guida and Gray Maynard -- two perennial contenders -- would like to know. The winner of that fight then becomes the day’s fresh case-maker. To help promote that fight, we’re sure to hear about the winner being in the proverbial title mix. We’ll hear each guy make his case for it, too.

At this point it might be easier to hold a raffle for the next lightweight title shot, provided that Diaz has the most tickets in the bowl. There are so many deserving fighters hovering near the top.

Was Cerrone overshooting to throw Diaz’s name out there? No. His aim was just right. Maybe his doing that gets Diaz’s blood boiling enough to call matchmaker Joe Silva to book it. And why not? Over the course of years, the UFC has been good about listening to those audacious enough to call their own shots. If Cerrone’s not given Diaz, he’ll likely get one of the scintillating young stars like Edson Barboza -- should he get by Jamie Varner at UFC 146 next week -- or Anthony Pettis. Pettis has been dog-eared for that title shot since downing Joe Lauzon at UFC 144 with that head kick. He’s the forever No. 1 contender B.

Where does the winner of Maynard/Guida factor in? What about if/when Eddie Alvarez makes his way into the UFC’s 155-pound cluster? It all depends on the what/when/where at lightweight. Who went last, who did what, who got the last word.

But if you can’t pass half a dozen contenders in one swoop, call out the guy at the front whom you suspect isn’t cut out for idling for months on end. Call out Diaz in a rematch, the guy who displaced you. And if that can’t be arranged, settle for a top-five fight in your hometown of Denver. That’s how you handle things coming off a dominant victory over a career .500 UFC fighter like Stephens.

Ask for it all, and settle for something far better than you might deserve.

Donald Cerrone gets a lot of credit for being exciting.

We laud his technical striking skills and proficient ground game, offering as evidence 14 stoppages among his 18 professional wins. We like to say he’s a “natural born fighter” -- a compliment in our world -- because he obviously loves his job so much. Spend a few minutes talking to the “Cowboy” and you come away feeling certain there’s nothing he’d rather do with his Saturday nights than beat somebody up for money.

He’s funny, flashy, confident-bordering-on-cocky and there’s an edge to him that’s just a little bit scary. In short, he’s everything fans want in an MMA fighter.

After watching him dismantle Jeremy Stephens on Tuesday at the UFC’s third live show on FuelTV though, one thing is clear: Amid all the praise we heap at his feet, we still don’t give Cerrone enough credit for being smart.

That’s a shame, because while the showy skillset and the flair for the dramatic will likely keep getting him big fights in the Octagon, it’s his brain that will give him a chance to win them.

Cerrone's unanimous decision win over Stephens was nothing if not shrewd. He clearly learned some things during his December 2011 loss to Nate Diaz, a fight where he let the prefight trash talk go to his head so badly that he sprinted out of his corner and into the teeth of Diaz’s attack at the opening bell. Though he lasted the full 15 minutes against the current No. 1 contender, the fight was clearly over by the middle of the first round -- it may have been over before it began -- after Diaz had already battered and frustrated him with his trademark speed-bag punches.

Leading up their showdown in Fairfax, Va., Stephens had tried his hand at getting into Cerrone’s dome, saying he thought Diaz “broke” the Colorado native during their bout. This time however, Cerrone proved above the verbal fray. Sure, he made Stephens eat his words (especially that ill-conceived line about how Stephens “[didn’t] care about his kicks”) but he did it with craft instead of wrath.

Getting suckered into a brawl against a power-puncher like Stephens is a good way to end the night explaining your strategy to the ringside doctor, so Cerrone opted for a slightly more advanced game plan. He engaged Stephens at range, punished his legs with a steady diet of -- ahem -- kicks and picked apart his defense with an unpredictable mix of punching combinations and even the occasional takedown.

That’s the longwinded way of saying Cerrone simply out-fought Stephens on this night.

The end result was that “Lil’ Heathen” looked completely out of his league and Cerrone reestablished himself as one of the UFC’s top-tier lightweights. Now 5-1 in the Octagon, he appears to have learned one of the cage’s most valuable lessons: Everyone loses. Everyone experiences adversity. The fighters that stick around for the long-term are the ones that make adjustments.

Cerrone made them wonderfully for this fight. Frankly, he needs to stay in that habit, because now comes the most important stage of his young UFC career. From here, he can either make his loss to Diaz look like an aberration -- that one time he let his emotions get the best of him and he got beat -- or he can fall back into the trap of being the guy who is good enough to defeat everyone except the best fighters in his division.

Of course, nobody wants to be the latter.

Ever active, Cerrone is angling for an appearance at UFC 150 in August, when the Octagon comes to his old stomping grounds in Denver. That timing would seem to dovetail nicely with the return of top contender Anthony Pettis, who reportedly had surgery for an undisclosed injury in March. If not Pettis, Cerrone could make a good first real test for Edson Barboza, provided the 26-year-old Brazilian can get by replacement opponent Jamie Varner later this month at UFC 146.

Whoever matchmakers line up next, Cerrone used his performance at UFC on Fuel 3 to remind us (and maybe himself) of what should be a golden rule for him moving forward: When he fights with his mind instead of running on pure heart, he ranks among the best in the world.

If your first thought after learning that Dominick Cruz tore an anterior cruciate ligament was anything like mine, then you've wondered whether or not a fighter who made his name off speed and movement is in danger of stumbling back to the pack.

It will be a year before we know the answer to that important question. In the meantime, Cruz's division apparently must march forward, which means Zuffa booked an interim bantamweight title fight between Urijah Faber and a to-be-determined opponent.

As is usually the case, the creation of a belt and a stand-in champion isn't needed. It's especially less so considering Faber fights on July 7, when most of the prefight coverage is expected to zero in on Silva-Sonnen 2. A healthy Cruz against his rival Faber, both off the reality show, wouldn't have generated a ton of interest considering the circumstances. So why push a fake belt? I don't get it.

At best, Faber versus TBD is a worthy No. 1 contender fight. And that's not so terrible. There are bouts at 135 pounds for Faber that line up to be terrific contests.

Renan Barao, ranked third at 135, is the obvious choice. Zuffa can break up his match against Ivan Menjivar, serendipitously scheduled for July 7, and it wouldn't upset too many people. If not the Brazilian, then an argument can be made to slot in 21-year-old Michael McDonald. I think that's the wrong way to go for the youngster, but it would be a fight with intriguing possibilities.

No matter how it pans out, hopefully Cruz makes a full recovery. It would be a shame to see someone who’s worked so hard, has so much potential, and hasn’t yet cashed in, take a knock that permanently changed the way he fights.

Is Koch ready?

Two weeks after what promises to be an epic UFC event in Las Vegas, Erik Koch’s title challenge July 21 in Calgary against featherweight champion Jose Aldo will feel small; maybe like it’s not even happening.

Depending on the outcome, of course, the 23-year-old Koch may wish it hadn’t. Then again, he wouldn’t be the first kid to come out of nowhere and pull off something many of us felt was impossible. And let’s be real here, there are few things in MMA more difficult to do than defeating Jose Aldo.

I thought it interesting that Hatsu Hioki, who based on his résumé is as ready to fight Aldo as any fighter in the world, has decided to take his time. Rather than jump at the chance to fight Aldo, Hioki meets Ricardo Lamas in a preliminary bout in June. The decision confused me, and it left the door open for Koch.

The first thing to notice when looking at Koch’s record, which is nowhere as good as Hioki’s, is his level of competition. He’s fought scrappy guys that helped make him look good. That’s not Aldo. Aldo is an offensive machine. I have the feeling Koch is in big trouble here.

Ratings ebb and flow

Somewhere between a heavyweight championship attraction and a card filled with scrappers is the truth when it comes to UFC ratings on Fox.

The number of households that tuned into Saturday’s network event, headlined by Nate Diaz and Jim Miller, plummeted compared to the previous two fight nights, but attempting to extrapolate what that means for future cards is risky business.

The May 5 card averaged 2.4 million viewers, a drop off of more than 50 percent from the first offering in November (5.7 million viewers), and this January (4.7 million). There were plenty of things to do Saturday, including a bevy of sports-watching options, not the least of which was Floyd Mayweather fighting Miguel Cotto on pay-per-view.

The UFC should regard the 2.4 million number as a baseline, the minimum number of viewers that will tune in to a Fox card. Considering the disappointment (and some have called it that) of Junior dos Santos’s early knockout against Cain Velasquez, and the decision-heavy second offering headlined by a five-round snoozer between Rashad Evans and Phil Davis, if people tuned in to watch a card without any star power and/or title fights they’re likely the most passionate watchers out of the casual group.

UFC’s third event on Fox was its most typical: just a solid lineup of action and good MMA. Had the evening gone another way, then there might be something to really worry about for Zuffa. But the bottom line is fighters performed and viewers likely felt as if the experience was worth doing again on Aug. 4.

Weekend viewing options

Zuffa is off until a Tuesday night fight card featuring Dustin Poirier and Chan Sung Jung, but that only opens the space up for multiple promoters. (By the way, with Hioki bowing out, the winner of this fight would have been my pick to face Aldo at UFC 149.)

May 10: Former Bellator featherweight champion Joe Soto has dropped to 135 and will fight for a respected regional title when he takes on Chad George at Tachi Palace Fights 13. The card streams on Sherdog.com

May 11: Speaking of ratings, Bellator and MTV2 earned an increase with the return of Michael Chandler on Friday. That’s a great sign for the lightweight titleholder. This week, Bellator heads to Atlantic City. Featherweights Marlon Sandro and Daniel Straus fight for the fight to get next crack at the 145-pound title after Patricio Freire. Should be a competitive fight.

On HDNet, Legacy Fighting Championship 11 from Houston features a mix of prospects and veterans. If you caught my podcast this week, you heard the interview with Chad Robichaux. The decorated special forces veteran, making his flyweight debut against Joseph Sandoval, has formed a non-profit -- Mighty Oaks Foundation -- to aid military personal stricken with Post Traumatic Stress Disorder.

Training camps have become their own game of roulette, and Dominick Cruz -- who trains fiendishly year round -- is the latest casualty.

Cruz tore his anterior cruciate ligament Thursday while prepping for his July 7 title fight with Urijah Faber, and now 2012 will pass by without the UFC bantamweight champion ever stepping into the octagon.

Bummer.

When 10 top contenders can’t beat you, ACL’s are around to remind us that there is such a thing as destructibility. Look at Georges St. Pierre, who suffered the exact same fate. It’s all eggshells before fight night, because injuries remain stubbornly indiscriminate (and prefight drug screenings have a way of coming back hot).

The big difference between Cruz and St. Pierre? St. Pierre’s injury took Carlos Condit with him.

In Faber’s case, he’ll still be dealt a fresh new face, likely in the form of Brazilian Renan Barao or the 21-year old Michael McDonald. Neither one of them provide a gussied-up, trilogy-fight storyline, but both stand a fantastic chance of dialing Faber’s mystique back for good -- which is to say, both have the power to derail Faber’s trilogy fight with Cruz forever.

In a game centered on hype, situations change at far greater speeds than belts. Very likely, whoever wins the rejiggered UFC 148 bout will have the placeholder belt and will wait out Cruz’s timetable for recovery to unify things.

And this is where things fall into a familiar sludge.

How many titlists and top contenders can be on the shelf at once? How many actual and theoretical belts can we introduce without it becoming charades? Whatever the case, matchmakers Joe Silva and Sean Shelby are becoming fluent in the laws of attrition. Taking a look at the tops of the UFC’s weight classes right now -- with all the conditions, exceptions, suspensions and voluntary sabbaticals -- most are a total mess.

St. Pierre will fight only once this year (hopefully), and Anderson Silva possibly the same (but hopefully not). Junior dos Santos is fighting in his first title defense in a few weeks (knock on wood), yet the top contender he was supposed to face -- Alistair Overeem -- is suspended. Likewise, Nick Diaz is suspended at welterweight.

Circumstantially, the latest contenders are putting themselves on hiatus, too. Nate Diaz says he’ll wait out Frankie Edgar/Benson Henderson, a fight that’ll likely take place in September. That means the earliest we see No. 1 contender Diaz again is in December. It’s even rockier for Johny Hendricks at welterweight. If he waits out the tentative November showdown between Condit and St. Pierre, he won’t surface again this year.

Title fights in 2012 are becoming scarce. Out of eight weight classes, we’ve had three in five months, and are on pace for maybe 14. Even the flyweight coronation was postponed due to a bumbled math job in Australia. Big fights are being made, and big fights are falling through. It’s the nature of the fight game to roll with the punches, but what a collision course of rotten luck.

What can you do? To use the most common refrain in MMA right now, it is what it is. The UFC can’t issue a memorandum that says, “tread light before the fight.” With Cruz out for the next nine months, it means opportunity for either Barao or McDonald. And the UFC has always been very good at branding optimism and opportunism above all else.

As for this year they have to, because that's what's for sale.

We’ve come to expect, even look forward to the passionate postfight ramblings of the Diaz brothers.

It wouldn’t really feel like a Diaz victory, after all, without copious shout-outs to the homies. It wouldn’t feel right without some chest-thumping on behalf of the 209, or Stockton, or NorCal, or just California in general (it seems the place the Diazes call home gets bigger the farther away they get). The evening just wouldn’t be complete without the now obligatory praise for a newly vanquished opponent and at least one out-of-the-blue announcement to make us all narrow our eyes at the TV a little bit and go: “Huh?”

On Saturday night in New Jersey, it was Nate Diaz’s turn.

Diaz had just defeated Jim Miller at UFC on Fox 3 to solidify his position as top contender for the organization’s lightweight title. In an absolutely appropriate summation by UFC color commentator Joe Rogan, Diaz had “completely handled” Miller en route to dealing him the first stoppage loss of his MMA career via funky second-round guillotine choke. It was Diaz’s third win in a row since dropping back down from welterweight last year. He seems to have suddenly come into his own inside the Octagon and is now set to take on the winner of the Aug. 11 do-over between champion Ben Henderson and ex-champ Frankie Edgar.

When asked by Rogan how he views his own standing in the sport’s most competitive division, Diaz first stumbled through the typical clichés about wanting to be top dog, but then tacked on an addendum that -- while not exactly surprising -- speaks to the unique landscape of the 155-pound division right now.

“I’m trying to be the No. 1 in this world,” Diaz said. “There’s only one person above all of us and that’s Gilbert "El Nino" Melendez, the true world champion lightweight.”

Diaz, of course, is terribly biased. He and Melendez are longtime teammates on the Cesar Gracie fight team, so it’s in no way shocking that he would use a live mic on national television to give the Strikeforce champion his propers. However, it is somewhat surprising that anyone on the doorstep of a UFC title shot would so readily and publicly admit he thinks the best fighter in his weight class competes elsewhere.

Also, even if Diaz didn’t know it, he had a point. His words actually did much to underscore the fractured state of the lightweight ranks right now.

For perhaps the first time in the modern history of the sport -- or, at least, in recent memory -- there are no fewer than five fighters who can lay somewhat serious claim to being the No.1 lightweight in the world. Sure, maybe not all of them could make overwhelming cases for themselves, but you wouldn’t immediately laugh any of them out of the room, either.

Since, as Diaz sort of pointed out, several of said guys don’t fight in the UFC, it makes the question of who is truly the best in the world more difficult to answer than ever. It also obviously makes the 155 pound class one of the most interesting in the sport.

Considering that what we typically do when we fill out MMA top 10 lists is just insert “Whoever has UFC Title” at No. 1, Henderson is the conventional pick as top lightweight of the moment. In the former WEC titlist’s case, however, his meteoric rise is undermined a tad by the razor-close decision in his championship victory over Edgar at UFC 144.

At least some observers think Edgar rightly should have gotten the nod in that bout and people who subscribe to the old adage that it's necessary to “take” the title off a standing champion might be able to make a convincing case that Edgar is still the best lightweight on the planet. That matchmakers granted him an immediate rematch against Henderson at UFC 150 only adds fuel to that argument.

Michael Chandler is the undefeated 155-pound champion of Bellator and the 26-year-old Xtreme Couture product has spent the last couple of years laying waste to most of the competition in MMA’s highest profile mid-major organization. His title victory over Eddie Alvarez was a fight of the year candidate for 2011, but the back-and-forth nature of that affair’s three-plus rounds might lead some to wonder if Chandler is truly even the best lightweight in his own promotion right now. As long as Bellator doesn’t move to set up a Chandler-Alvarez rematch, instead appearing content to book its champ in quizzical, non-title fights against guys like Akihiro Gono, we might never know how good Chandler actually is.

Since that loss in November, Alvarez might have the least compelling case as a legitimate world No. 1, but nonetheless still deserves to be in the discussion. Prior to that defeat, he’d won seven fights in a row dating back to 2008 and last month followed up the loss of his Bellator title by dispatching erstwhile top-10 lightweight Shinya Aoki (also the last guy to beat Alvarez prior to Chandler) in just two minutes, 14 seconds. Alvarez is just barely hanging onto his own top 10 spot in the latest ESPN.com rankings, but remains the sort of guy who could beat any other lightweight on the list on any given night.

You can’t have a conversation about who's the best without at least mentioning his name.

Then there’s Melendez, who can likely make the best case for the top spot of any non-UFC fighter. At 20-2, he too is undefeated since 2008 and has avenged both his career losses during that current stretch. In his last four fights, Melendez has looked every bit the part of the world’s best lightweight but, similar to Chandler in Bellator, Strikeforce just doesn’t have the clout to offer him many new an interesting tests, especially with Zuffa still opting not to lessen its own glut of lightweights by sending them Melendez’s way.

At this point, it seems the most Strikeforce can do is book him into an endless series of rematches against Josh Tompson. They’ll fight for a third time on May 19 and if Melendez wins, his tenure in Strikeforce will seem more pointless and maddening than ever.

Should Melendez lose? Well, that seems like an even worse outcome.

Lightweight remains the most vibrant and hotly-contested weight class in our sport, but it’s also the most maddening, considering the wealth of high-level talent spread out over numerous promotions. There are enough contenders jockeying for position in the UFC alone to keep us busy for the next few months, but the question of who can lay legitimate claim to the 155-pound throne will be too-close-to-call until all the top fighters congregate under the same banner.

Until then, at least we know who has Nate Diaz’s vote.

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. -- When Nate Diaz bolted the 155-pound division 2½ years ago, he had lost three of four fights and was in need of a change. He tried to kick-start his career as a welterweight; and yet, after four fights there, he went 2-2.

For as promising as his UFC career started -- going 5-0 after winning Season 5 of "The Ultimate Fighter" -- people weren’t talking about Diaz after his one-sided beatdown at UFC 129 against Rory MacDonald at UFC 129.

Nick Diaz’s little brother had essentially plateaued.

Yet on Saturday night, in just his third fight in his reimagining as a lightweight, Diaz is now in pole position for a title shot in what might be the promotion’s most competitive division. His second-round submission of New Jersey native Jim Miller put an exclamation mark on his latest run. Diaz tapped out the hometown hero with a guillotine choke -- on national television, no less.

To put that in perspective, consider this: Nobody -- not Gray Maynard, not Frankie Edgar, not Benson Henderson -- has ever stopped Miller (now 10-3 in the UFC).

“I just trained hard for the fight, and I just went in there and fought hard and it went good,” said a terse Diaz at the postfight news conference.

Indeed he did. Saturday was the night that Nate Diaz truly arrived. And talk about a turn of events -- who would have thought six months ago that, when discussing a Diaz in a title fight, it would be Nate instead of Nick.

But that’s where we’re at. Since returning to lightweight, Nate Diaz finished Takanori Gomi, landed a record number of strikes against Donald Cerrone and now became the first fighter to finish Miller. What’s up with the resurgence?

To hear him say it, it’s all about pushing the right buttons in training.

“I’m getting matchups with top contenders at lightweight, and that’s a little motivating,” he told ESPN.com. “It’s hard to stay motivated and fight somebody that nobody knows, who you’re kind of more popular than. I don’t mean to sound like I’m all popular, but sometimes it’s hard when everybody expects you to win. I like fighting a top contender and being counted out.

“I feel it in training,” he said. “[Miller] is supposed to beat me? We’ll see.”

The Stockton native will likely be an underdog in his next fight, too. It was announced tonight that the new No. 1 contender in the 155-pound division will wait out the Edgar/Henderson bout to face the winner, even if the fight takes place very late in 2012.

“He’s going to wait for the title shot,” Dana White said. When asked about waiting, Diaz simply replied, “I’m down for whatever, but [waiting] sounded great to me.”

And, just like it was for Henderson, beating Miller was the way to a title shot. Miller said the game plan was to pressure Diaz and make move backward while staying out of his range.

Easier said than done. Miller couldn’t get anything going in the first round and got caught in a scramble that led to him tapping in the second. Afterward, Miller doffed his cap to Diaz’s superior game plan.

“He fought a beautiful fight, and he had my number,” Miller said of Diaz.

Diaz has had everybody’s number that he’s faced since returning to lightweight. Perhaps he said it best himself in the postfight news conference.

“Yeah, he’s tough,” he said. “It was him or me, and I’m glad it went the way it did. Guess I got lucky, just my time to shine, I guess.”

NEW YORK -- For as stacked as the UFC 146 card appears for Memorial Day weekend, it’s really two title fights (Urijah Faber/Dominick Cruz and Chael Sonnen/Anderson Silva) and a pack of glitzy non-consequential match-ups (Cung Le/Rich Franklin and Forrest Griffin/Tito Ortiz).

Not so for New Jersey and this weekend’s free UFC on FOX 3 card. No belts will change hands, but situations are in play. Complicated situations. Theoretical ones. Titles dangling in the balance, right there for some and just out of reach for others. And there is, of course, much obfuscation.

For example: If Nate Diaz capitalizes on his broadcast television main event and downs Jim Miller, he is essentially guaranteed a title shot at 155 pounds. However, with Benson Henderson and Frankie Edgar fighting for the title in August, that shot might come in a wintry month like December. That’s a long time to wait for a guy who A.) fights for money, B.) likes fighting and C.) has a nice head of momentum. When asked if he’d wait in that situation at Thursday’s news conference, Diaz said simply, “I have a fight on Saturday.”

This drew a New York cheer. Diaz, for all his volume in punching, is a man of few words.

If Jim Miller beats Diaz, on the other hand, he isn’t guaranteed anything. Rather, he is guaranteed to be cheering for Frankie Edgar at UFC 150 when Edgar fights Henderson, because in that case Miller would potentially get to fight Edgar (his erstwhile training partner/friend).

Got it?

Here’s what Miller had to say when asked if he’s confused by Diaz getting a title shot with a win (even though he’s 3-3 in his last six lightweight bouts) while he (10-2 as a lightweight in the UFC) won’t necessarily:

“You know, honestly, it doesn’t matter to me right now. I’ve got a fight in two days, and that’s where my focus is. From doing that [10-2 record] and having that seven-win stretch and dealing with the rematches in this division, it really cemented that things change -- and things happen. So I’m not going to sit here and try and predict what’ll happen with a win or with a loss. I’m just focused on the fight itself, and after that, then it’s time to speculate about the next fight.”

If he won’t speculate, we sure will, and we’ll add a name to the mix: Anthony Pettis.

Pettis, who is a quasi-No. 1 contender, will be coming back to full health some time in the summer. Logic would say that the winner of Diaz/Miller will end up fighting Pettis to establish a true No. 1 contender, while Henderson/Edgar II plays out.

Meanwhile, the co-main event has its own wild set of conditions. Should Johny Hendricks beat Josh Koscheck, he is the No. 1 contender for a title fight. Problem is, once again, that Georges St. Pierre and Carlos Condit are likely fighting in November to settle up the permanent and interim belts. There’s no way that Hendricks will want to wait for that to play out for a spring 2013 title fight.

Yet if Koscheck wins, he will have to pull for Condit to beat St. Pierre to have a word in the title conversation.

Confused? You should be. If we learned anything from the final prefight news conference, it’s this -- the UFC doesn’t want repetition. Koscheck/St. Pierre and Henderson/Miller happened too soon ago to happen again. The UFC craves new blood.

It’s the most complicated contender-type card that ever was, and it’s going down Saturday night in New Jersey.

First UFC "super fight" in January?

In the post news conference scrum, a media member asked Dana White about a potential fight card at Cowboys Stadium in Dallas, a venue which can hold 100,000 people.

White said all that flirtation about holding an event there was not only real, but is a serious possibility. He also alluded to a big January card that could potentially be so massive.

“We’re always looking for a potential big fight,” White said. “We’ve always wanted to do a fight, and we’ve been talking to [Jerry] Jones and his crew about doing a fight down in Dallas Cowboys Stadium, but we need a fight big enough to do it. The last fight that I was going to try and make there was Brock [Lesnar] and Fedor [Emelianenko].”

There is potentially a fight out there that’s big enough.

Running through the timelines of “super fight” candidates for a place like Dallas Cowboys Stadium, or a second event at the Rogers Centre in Toronto (or at the old, reliable stand-by in Las Vegas), one could envision a Jon Jones/Anderson Silva match-up at least being discussed.

Think about it. If Jones beats Dan Henderson in September, that would be four months ahead of January -- perfect for the turn around. Anderson Silva fights in July. Should be beat Chael Sonnen for his record 10th title defense, there would be only one way to raise the ante -- and it wouldn’t be to take on Mark Munoz or Hector Lombard.

It would be to fight Jones, who’d have tidied his own division up just in time. Is that what the UFC has in mind?

“I don’t know,” White said. “We’ll see what happens. We’ll see what we end up putting together.”

New York state of mind

By now, everyone knows about the MMA ban in New York, even as we make our way through open-minded 2012. This is why the UFC dangles its product just across the Hudson River -- to reinforce that all notions of “human cockfighting” are antiquated and hyperbolic. Whether the sport hasn’t been sanctioned in the Empire State is about “gangsters” in the Culinary Union (as Dana White says) or something less ominous, it depends on whom you talk to.

But when MMA does finally get legalized in New York, the UFC plans on doing it big.

“When we finally do break through and do a big event here, I think the event at Madison Square Garden that we do will be huge, and it’s be a great time to pull off a Fan Expo here in New York,” White said. “I think it would be huge.”

In the meantime, those in New York who want to catch MMA in a live setting must go underground. Or, underwater. For MMA, there’s light at the end of the Lincoln Tunnel, across the way in East Rutherford, N.J., where the UFC will once again mock New York with the one thing it doesn’t have.

Leading up to the biggest fight of his life this weekend at the UFC’s third live show on Fox, Nate Diaz has had to answer more than a few questions on behalf of his brother.

Of course, this will only strike you as odd if you don’t know who Nate Diaz’s brother is, and if you’ve spent any time at all around MMA, if you are indeed reading this right now, that’s probably impossible.

Even as he stands poised for an opportunity at becoming the No. 1 contender for the UFC lightweight title, Nate remains the lesser known of the fighting Diaz men. His older brother, Nick -- he of the impulsive retirement announcement and ongoing marijuana suspension -- remains the bigger draw, the bigger perceived talent and in most tangible ways the all-around bigger deal.

All of this is despite the fact Nate actually has three more UFC appearances (15, in all) and three more Octagon wins (10) than Nick. Despite the fact he’s proven to be the more reliable Diaz, the kindler/gentler Diaz and -- if all goes well on Saturday night -- stands a decent chance of going on to become the first Diaz to wear UFC gold.

Also, you know, not to mention the fact that if we take him at his own word, Nick Diaz’s MMA career is already over.

Among two different men, such an unequal dynamic might be a problem -- but not with these two. Throughout his career, Nate Diaz has consistently credited his brother not only as a coach and training partner but also lists him first on his official UFC profile page when asked: Do you have any heroes?

We have no sense at all that Nate Diaz wants to fight his way out of his brother’s shadow. In a sport where fighters are seemingly constantly leaving one training facility for another over some perceived slight, where egos run rampant and where there are as many spats and hurt feelings outside of the cage as inside, there has never been a hint of significant strife between the Diaz brothers.

In fact, it’s quite the opposite. When asked about his brother’s future this week, Nate Diaz contended that Nick still isn’t interested in returning to the cage (despite the fact he has a lawsuit pending against the Nevada State Athletic Commission) and in his brother’s stead he (Nate, that is) will carry the family’s honor into battle on Saturday night against Jim Miller.

“I feel like I perform for both of us," Nate said during open workouts in New York. "I don’t want to let my team down; my brother down. He helps coach me, and I hope I can go out there and do good and make everyone look good."

Nate Diaz came to the UFC as a work in progress in 2007 and the fact that we’ve watched him experience some growing pains along the way -- while his brother was dominating the competition in EliteXC and Strikeforce -- likely has a lot to do with why we continue to view him as the lesser of two Diazes. Only in recent appearances have we started to see what he’s truly capable of, with his first round submission of Takanori Gomi and thorough beatdown of Donald Cerrone in 2011.

If he defeats Miller to solidify his status as No. 1 contender, we might have to start thinking of him on equal footing with his better known brother. If he becomes UFC champ, well, then he might wake up one day and find himself the more accomplished of the two.

Nate Diaz is 25 minutes and one victory away from a shot at the UFC lightweight title, Dana White revealed on Wednesday. More »

As soon as the judges’ scorecards were read, Ricardo Almeida knew it was time to end his fighting career.

Almeida still believed he could compete against UFC’s top welterweights. What he could no longer do was defeat some of the sport’s questionable judging.

Fighting in his home state of New Jersey on March 19, 2011, at UFC 128, Almeida came out on the short end of a unanimous decision to Mike Pyle.

“As a fighter, I’ve been on the wrong end of a couple of bad decisions, fights I thought I’d won but lost,” Almeida, who spent most of his mixed martial arts career at middleweight, told ESPN.com. “The one closest to my heart is the last fight in Jersey.

“It was close, but I thought I won that fight.”

Rather than be victimized by another "bad" decision, Almeida decided to take off his gloves for good. He might have lost to Pyle, but he wasn’t done fighting. Almeida was just getting started.

You know the saying, "if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em"? Well, Almeida took that saying to heart and, shortly after his loss to Pyle, became an MMA judge with the New Jersey State Athletic Control Board.

The experience has been satisfying and eye-opening for Almeida, who has a newfound appreciation for some of the obstacles judges must overcome while scoring fights.

“Personally, it’s just giving back to a sport that has given a lot to my life,” Almeida said. “[NJSACB attorney] Nick Lembo invited me and I’ve had a great relationship with the New Jersey State Athletic Control Board and I accepted right away.

“What people don’t understand is that the view a judge has watching the fight isn’t the same view fans have watching on TV. It’s hard; it’s a different perspective.”

A judge’s vision can sometimes be obstructed by poles, referees and poor seating angles, which strengthens Almeida’s belief that former fighters are best equipped to score today’s action.

“There is always going to be controversy, but the more we can get guys who understand what’s going on inside the Octagon, the results are going to be a little more consistent,” Almeida said. “Another side of it is that the sport is evolving so quickly that a lot of fans don’t even understand the sport now.”

For a little more than a year, Almeida has been fine-tuning his skills as a professional MMA judge. On Saturday night he gets to show off what he’s learned on the sport’s grandest stage --UFC on Fox at the Izod Center in East Rutherford, N.J.

Almeida will score several bouts on that card, including the co-main event which pits welterweight Johny Hendricks against Josh Koscheck.

His presence as a judge has already garnered support from the fighters.

“He’s going to know a little bit more about the sport,” Hendricks said during a recent conference call. “He’ll know what position really means, and he’ll know when a strike actually lands.”

Koscheck added: “It’s good for the sport. It gets the perspective of a fighter, someone who’s been in the Octagon and knows jiu-jitsu and knows wrestling and understands the sport.

“As this sport grows we’re going to see more ex-UFC fighters become judges. It’s a good start.”

This will be the biggest night of Almeida’s young career as a judge. While he is judging the fighters’ performances, others are sure to judge his.

But with several events under his belt -- among them, Cage Fury Fighting Championships, Ring of Combat and Bellator Fighting Championships -- Judge Almeida is fully prepared for his UFC debut.

“It will be pretty intense, but I will be on my toes with this UFC event, because I know all eyes are going to be on me,” Almeida said.

“Yeah, I’m going to be nervous. It’ll be like I’m walking into a fight myself. But the spotlight only makes me want to be sharper and do a better job.”

In addition to his knowledge of MMA, Almeida also brings his high level of integrity. Some might question if having Almeida judge fights is a conflict of interest. He still runs his gym in Hamilton, N.J., where several high-profile fighters train, including former UFC lightweight champion Frankie Edgar.

No worries; Almeida will never be assigned to judge a bout that has a direct impact on one of his fighters.

“Obviously that is not going to happen,” Lembo told ESPN.com. “There are disclosure forms and conflict of interest forms that every official has to fill out. If anything, Ricardo has voluntarily disclosed some things that I didn’t even think, as the commission attorney, disqualified him.

“That’s one of the reasons why he’s not on that [Nate Diaz-Jim Miller] fight. Diaz has a [Cesar] Gracie connection and Miller’s side [American Martial Arts] also has a connection to Renzo Gracie.”

Miller and Diaz are competing in a lightweight bout that could land the winner a shot at the title. Champion Benson Henderson is tentatively slated to face Edgar in a rematch on Aug. 11 at UFC 150. Almeida and Edgar are closely affiliated with Renzo Gracie.

“I don’t want to be part of a fight where there is any conflict of interest of any kind,” Almeida said. “I’ve trained with Jim Miller and we’re very close with Nate Diaz.”

Knowledge, enthusiasm and integrity: Almeida will bring it all with him as a judge Saturday. Besides, he’s developed into a solid judge, according to his superiors.

“He’s been very good or we wouldn’t use him,” Lembo said. “We’re not using him because he’s Ricardo Almeida; that doesn’t do use any good.

“We’re not in the business of selling tickets or getting media attention; we’re in the business of trying to assure the health and safety of the fighters, and provide the best officiating that we can.”

This Saturday’s main event between Jon Jones and Rashad Evans is the cautionary tale of what becomes of elite teammates who coexist in the same weight class.

It’s fitting for this card, because you know who looks a lot like the Jon Jones of two years ago? Rory MacDonald -- the guy who is being showcased in the co-main event at UFC 145 against Che Mills. Why a showcase? Because it’s an honest-looking challenge in a fight everybody expects the upstart to win. Just like when Jones fought guys like Brandon Vera and Vladimir Matyushenko. These fights happened right after Jones relocated from an anonymous upstate New York gym to Greg Jackson’s contender’s den in Albuquerque, N.M.

That was around the time he began training with Evans, who started off as his mentor -- the big brother who had a hand in molding raw talent. Even with Jones’ radar going off, it didn’t seem like Jones was coming for Evans' legacy at the time -- at least, not to them. To us, it always appeared different.

You see where things ended up.

Another win narrows MacDonald’s path to the top. The top is the determined goal for a young fighter who wants to rewrite history at 170 pounds. That means the top will also present itself as a crossroads, because Georges St. Pierre -- a training partner that MacDonald calls his mentor -- currently occupies that rarified space. MacDonald moved across country, from British Columbia to French Quebec, to train with St. Pierre.

Since then he’s won a pair in a row, including a one-sided drubbing of Nate Diaz. To be the best, you learn from the best.

Problem is, there can be only one best.

When I spoke to MacDonald for a piece in ESPN the Magazine last month, he laid it out.

“There’s no question that I’m going to be champion; it’s about when,” he said. “And that’s not my only goal in this sport. First, I’m going to get that done, but you guys will see in the future, I’m going to accomplish things that nobody else has done in this sport. I have a long career ahead of me; I just have to stay smart.”

Right now, MacDonald and St. Pierre are leaving such eventualities to blow around in the abstract. That’s fine. There are a million scenarios that could prevent a GSP/MacDonald encounter down the road. MacDonald, only 22, could slip along the way -- or move up in weight. Ditto St. Pierre, who has flirted with middleweight. St. Pierre could retire, or never recover from that knee injury. He could even lose to Condit.

Easier to imagine? He just keeps being GSP, the dominating force who is forever vigilant of complacency -- the last of his known vulnerabilities (thanks to Matt Serra).

But MacDonald is coming. If he beats Mills (and does so impressively), he’ll be a consensus top-10 welterweight. From there, all rungs take him a little bit closer to detachment. There’s a reason it’s lonely at the top.

“At the moment, you know, Georges is a friend of mind, and we train at the same gym with the same trainers with the same regiment,” he said in the Magazine interview. “Georges has looked out for me for the last year and been a good friend, and I have to respect that. I just never say never, but Georges is a friend of mine, and it’s something I can’t answer right now. I don’t foresee it.”

Neither did Jones see the clash on the horizon with Evans. Not seeing it doesn’t mean it’s not on course to happen, it just means it’s preferable not to look.

In a year or two, it could be MacDonald in the headlining spot fighting for the belt. His potential is great enough that it doesn’t seem far-fetched in the slightest. If and when the time comes, to achieve what he's after, the man standing in front of him can’t matter.

A lot of things should go into booking Benson Henderson’s next fight, beginning with marketability and ending with scruples.

Does the UFC book an immediate rematch with a very deserving Frankie Edgar? Or do they give the shot to Anthony Pettis, who was the last man to defeat Henderson back at WEC 58?

Never mind the merits of Nate Diaz and Jim Miller for the time being. They are set up on a distant horizon, too distant to factor into a demanding public’s want of matchmaking immediacy.

And still, both situations are complicated.

If the UFC eschews Edgar’s request for a rematch, it looks like he’s getting a raw deal for a guy who has been nothing but a model champion for the last two years. Did he complain about having to back up his victory over B.J. Penn? Under his breath, maybe. He also handled the Maynard series with the kind of professionalism that fans could get used to. For all his deeds, how can the UFC simply ignore the case he’s presenting for rematch in a fight that was so close enough as to warrant one?

There are plenty of reasons, and most weigh around 155 pounds.

The fact that Edgar has been involved in consecutive rematches at the top of the lightweight division means it’s been off limits to contenders for going on two years. That’s a long time to hijack a division, fair or not. For one disgruntled former champion, there’s a mob scene going on just below him of people who have their own cases to hear. The perpetual logjam at the top at 155 pounds isn’t Edgar’s fault, or Pettis’s, for that matter. Or Jim Miller’s, or Melvin Guillard’s, or Donald Cerrone’s.

If the UFC books Edgar/Henderson II, all the contenders who have been looking for an opening for that belt will effectively be snubbed yet again. “What’s right?” Edgar asked at the postfight news conference at UFC 144, meaning he’s done right by the UFC, and now it’s time for the UFC to do right by him.

Maybe so, but “what’s right?” in this case is a complicated question.

And of all the wayside contenders to lose out in a new rematch scenario, Pettis would be the one most affronted. He was the one who lost out on the last rematch scenario. Remember, it was the reigning WEC lightweight champ Pettis who came into the UFC as the No. 1 contender to fight the Maynard/Edgar winner to start 2011. When the fight went to a draw, Pettis, who was then 23 years old, didn’t want to sit out and wait and so took a stay-busy fight with Clay Guida. Then he lost, and that set him back a full year. Now he knocks out Joe Lauzon and re-establishes himself as a (less clear-cut) No. 1 contender, and his reward could be to stand aside again.

Or to take a fight and stay busy while this thing sorts out.

That’s not an ideal situation to be in once, much less twice. People fight to make money, but also to earn a chance at a belt. That’s the ultimate goal, and at some point it becomes a goal held in vain when no opening in the title picture can be found.

So what does the UFC do? Does it book the rematch with Henderson and Edgar, and do what’s right by one deserving man? Or does it open the belt up for business, and allow Pettis to finally walk toward the light?

Tricky stuff. But you can see why Dana White is so bent on having Edgar drop down to 145 pounds to challenge Jose Aldo. It’s the only scenario where everybody more or less wins -- and traffic can get moving in both divisions.

There were those who thought that Nick Diaz beat Carlos Condit at UFC 143, pointing to his constant pursuit as evidence. Diaz stalked, mocked and talked. He was "Stalkton." He was exactly who we thought he was.

Problem was, Condit wasn’t.

Condit went into the nastiest kind of retreat, one that stuck and ducked and moved and circled and landed leg kicks and counter shots with isolated ease. Isolated? Wait -- wasn’t Condit supposed to stand in front of Diaz and trade, looking for that big curtain closer? Weren’t chins supposed to come into question? Wasn’t Condit supposed to be tailor-made for the high-volume striking assault that Diaz is known for?

Condit had a mute button for the volume. He was either brilliant, or he was a high stakes version of Kalib Starnes, depending on your bias. In all circles, it was clear that he consciously avoided a brawl. And this is where feelings got hurt. In the end, Condit wasn’t about meeting bloodthirsty expectations so much as winning the fight, and he executed his game plan brilliantly. Good for (or shame on) him. Now he’s the interim welterweight champion, and don’t expect apologies from Albuquerque.

Yet for all the scorecard dissection that ensued, nobody was as disappointed or disillusioned as Diaz, who sort of retired right after. A totally impromptu retirement -- just a hundred seconds after a stubborn war he could never incite.

“I don’t need this s---,” he said to Joe Rogan.

He said he’d continue to help train his brother, Nate, but as for him and the whole pack of incompetent judges and all the pressure-filled, bustling hate? Devil take it. He doesn’t need the racket.

Which we all of course took with a grain of salt.

Nobody really thinks that the 28-year-old Diaz is walking. He does need the racket. All the dude has done since his earliest memories is mean mug whoever gets in his grill, and fight. He went so far as to balance out the street menace early by funneling it into jiu-jitsu in his formative years. These days, he is as much Cesar Gracie as Cesar Gracie. Diaz is known for his fiendish work ethic, and he trains compulsively. It’s what he does. It’s how he copes, and how he vents. We like it because we see such focused discipline coming out of unknown wilds. Maybe more than anybody, this game is Diaz’s lifeblood.

Only it’s not a game to Diaz, it’s fighting -- and that’s why judge’s scorecards become absurd to such a literalist.

This last distinction is why he’ll return to the cage before long. The old Dana White proverb to “never leave it in the hands of the judges” will resonate in him and work as kindling. Losing that way won’t sit well in the 209. White senses it, just like you and I. In fact, White was already dangling Josh Koscheck out there as a possible next opponent in the postfight news conference. Emotions got the better of Diaz, who has never filtered the urge to say what’s on his mind like typical professionals.

It helps that there are possibilities all over the place. Realistically, with Georges St. Pierre on the shelf until something like November, a rematch with Condit isn’t out of the question. Neither is fighting a Johny Hendricks or a Jon Fitch or a Rory MacDonald to avenge his brother’s loss. Or maybe Jake Ellenberger, who would love nothing better than to stand and trade heat with Diaz. How about rematch with Diego Sanchez, who knows the buttons to push to get Diaz’s chest puffing back out?

There will be suitors, some of them equipped with the kinds of mouths that will get to Diaz.

But that’s all window dressing. The thing is, Diaz doesn’t have it in him to quit, and there’s still too much left unresolved and just too many reasons for him to walk away.

And for those who have paid attention to Diaz’s competitiveness over the years, the biggest might be this -- he simply can’t.

CHICAGO -- Based on the less-than-favorable receptions former UFC light heavyweight champion Rashad Evans receives from fans whenever he is introduced, it’s safe to say that most don’t care for him much.

But whether fans like Evans or not, no one can say the man doesn’t speak his mind. Evans can be brutally honest about his feelings toward whoever happens to be his opponent, or potential opponent, for a given event.

Fast-rising Phil Davis is the man who now gets to hear Evans’ personal thoughts about him. And considering the statements Evans has uttered in recent weeks, he doesn’t have a favorable opinion of the man who will oppose him Saturday night in the Octagon at UFC on Fox 2.

But unlike Quinton Jackson and Jon Jones, both of whom Evans dislikes personally, his dislike to Davis isn't personal. It's just business.

“A fight is a fight. And sometimes it’s easier to fight somebody when you don’t like them,” Evans said during a news conference on Friday. “For the most part I’ve really got nothing against Phil, but we have to fight each other so I have a lot against him right now.”

Finding a reason to dislike Davis is difficult. He is one of the kindest guys in the sport and never has a harsh word to say to anyone.

But after digging, Evans fought something negative to pin on Davis: His resume. As far as Evans is concerned, Davis has no business in the cage with him at this time. Evans prides himself on facing the best fighters at 205 pounds, and he doesn't believe Davis fits the criteria.

“Phil is just a nice guy,” Evans said during a recent conference call. “He’s not a fighter. He’s an athlete, a great athlete, but not a fighter. He has no killer instinct for this and he’s got no experience at this level.

“He’s never fought at heavyweight like I had to [on “The Ultimate Fighter” 2] to get into the UFC. He didn’t get punched by Chuck Liddell and Jackson like I did.

“He’s not had to dig deep at all. He’s in deep water, and I’m the shark.”

White not buying Lawal’s denials

Former Strikeforce light heavyweight champion Muhammed Lawal vehemently denies ever taking an anabolic steroid, despite a recent positive test result administered by the Nevada State Athletic Commission.

Lawal tested positive for Drostanolone.

“I’m very surprised about this,” Lawal told ESPN.com’s Josh Gross earlier this month. “I’m very careful about what I put in my body. I’ve never tested positive for a performance-enhancing drug. I’ve gone through, and still welcome, Olympic-style testing.

“I will do whatever is necessary to get to the bottom of this.”

But UFC president Dana White isn’t moved by Lawal’s passionate pleas. White wants Lawal to take a different approach.

“If you get caught doing something, admit you did it,” White told ESPN.com. “This whole, ‘somebody put something in my system that I didn’t know about.’ ... Who here lets somebody put s--- in them that you don’t know about?

“I don’t buy that s---. Own up to what you did. Everybody makes mistakes.”

White went on to say that Lawal or any fighter who tests positive for a performance-enhancing drug and fails to admit the error of his ways risks never again fighting in a Zuffa-promoted event.

So what does the future hold for Lawal or former Strikeforce women’s featherweight titleholder Cristaine Santos, who also recently tested positive for a performance-enhancing drug earlier this month?

“I don’t know,” White said. “It depends on how they handle themselves. We will see.”

Title shot likely for Miller-Diaz winner

It’s too soon to start calling the lightweight showdown between Jim Miller and Nate Diaz a title eliminator, but that is likely to be the case when they step inside the cage May 5 in East Rutherford, N.J.

“Obviously the guy who wins that fight will probably get a shot at the title,” White told ESPN.com.

But White isn’t quite ready to completely remove former WEC lightweight champion Anthony Pettis from the No. 1 title-contender discussion. Pettis will face Joe Lauzon at UFC 144 in Japan on Feb. 25.

When asked about Pettis’ status, White said: “I don’t know. We’ll see.”

While the Miller-Diaz winner has a good chance of fighting for the lightweight title, the fight won’t headline the UFC on Fox 3 card. White said he is still working to put a high-profile main event together for that event.

Feel-good stories in MMA are hard to sustain, and even harder to get off the ground. As quick and cobbled as the story of the Blackzilians is being put together as a sort of wrecking crew/adoption agency, old tendencies are returning to its fighters.

This isn’t a happy trend.

One week ago, Anthony Johnson failed to make weight (by a country mile) in Rio de Janeiro at UFC 142, marking the third time in two different weight classes he’s showed up to the scale way over. He was cut for the third strike after losing to Vitor Belfort. Now Melvin Guillard, who recently relocated to Florida full-time to train with the Blackzilians, gets submitted in a round by Jim Miller.

If any of this looks familiar it’s because he was tapped by Joe Lauzon in his previous fight at UFC 136, which was thought to be something of a winking aberration. Turns out it wasn’t, and it never really was. The fact is that nine of Guillard’s 10 losses have come via submission. The other fight he lost (against Jake Short in 2004) was a decision. Guillard has never been knocked out, but he dangles neck and limb out there to be snatched while pursuing knockouts.

His fixation is leaving him vulnerable. For as much as it’s fun to watch Guillard’s aggression, it plays out like roulette.

Yet the case of Guillard is interesting, because so many people -- coaches, fans, honchos at Zuffa -- see him as a fighter that’s a few tweaks from being a champion. He has the quicks and athleticism to rival any lightweight, and arguably the strongest hands in the division. There’s no doubting his explosiveness. In fact, he had Miller in trouble early by landing some big shots. Then again, lapses in judgment have always hindered him, both in and out of the cage. And those lapses in judgment in the cage put him in all kinds of hot water against smart grapplers, the kind who feast on mistakes.

Lauzon told me that he was leery of four offensive moves that Guillard presented, and he had them easily memorized before their fight. He saw all of them in the 47 seconds they stood across from each other. As for the defensive side of the equation? No worries at all -- Guillard trends offensively. He trusts his offense enough to override any specific holes in his submission defense.

And at this point that sort of thinking is the problem unless he’s fighting somebody who accommodates him by not playing jiu-jitsu.

Against wrestlers (Shane Roller, Evan Dunham, Waylon Lowe), Guillard does fine. Against guys who like to stand and bang (Jeremy Stephens, Dennis Siver), he’s right at home. But against submission specialists (Nate Diaz, Joe Lauzon, Jim Miller), guys who can force mistakes or at the very least pounce on them, he gets caught.

After the Miller choke, ESPN.com’s Brett Okamoto suggested Guillard needed to be locked in a room with some black belts for a year, then he’d return a champion. Whether that’s true or not, it couldn’t hurt.

But the mistakes are the thing. Against Miller it was an ill-timed flying knee that allowed the grappler to get things to the ground. From there it was clinical -- just as Miller went to mount, Guillard scrambled and gave up his back. Seconds later, he was tapping.

This has become a recurring theme for Guillard, who for just a little while at Greg Jackson’s Academy in Albuquerque seemed to have found a balance in his game that might be described best as “smart aggressiveness.” The thing that Jackson and striking coach Mike Winkeljohn were working on with Guillard was ultimately judgment, with a broader focus on his maturity. He was riding a five-fight winning streak when he left Jackson’s for Boca Raton midway through training for Lauzon. Up until then, he was beating wrestlers and boxers.

Since then he’s 0-2 against jiu-jitsu aces. Losing the way he did long before he got to Jackson’s.

Would it have mattered if he’d stayed in New Mexico? Who knows. But Guillard is a work in progress, and it’s been a pretty lousy week for the Blackzilians.