Posted by ESPN.com’s Graham Watson
It’s fair to say that neither TCU nor Boise State have even footing as the BCS standings continue to shift like tectonic plates from week to week.
Last week, Boise State was No. 4 and crushed Hawaii, but fell to No. 7. TCU started the weekend No. 8 and jumped up to No. 6 with a win over BYU.
And what’s funny is that the roles could easily be reversed next week.
It’s not the human polls that are creating havoc in the BCS standings, it’s the computer rankings, which take into account strength of schedule not only of the teams in question but of the teams they’ve played. Hawaii’s strength of schedule was significantly lower than BYU’s, which helped push TCU ahead. TCU also was helped by Clemson’s win over a ranked Miami team. Boise State might have dropped further had Oregon not defeated Washington, which according to the Sagarin ratings, currently has the nation’s toughest schedule.
The Sagarin ratings are one of the six computer rankings used to make up one third of the poll. The coaches' poll and Harris poll are the other two components. The Broncos also were greatly aided by the confidence of the human polls, which both kept them at No. 5, above TCU.
“For Boise to have any chance of finishing ahead of TCU, they’re going to have to hold on to the advantage in the [human] polls,” ESPN BCS expert Brad Edwards said. “Depending on where the gap in the computers goes, it could increase from where it is now and Boise would obviously have to increase their lead in the polls in order to make up for it.
“If you asked me to handicap the race right now, with six weeks left, my money would be on them both finishing undefeated because I don’t think either one of them is going to lose. But then my prediction would be the TCU finishes ahead in the BCS.”
This week, Boise State and TCU could swap places again if both win and the human polls stay the same. Boise State’s opponent, San Jose State, has a Sagarin strength of schedule of No. 7. UNLV, TCU’s opponent, is No. 94.
As the weeks go by, it's becoming increasingly clear that that the Broncos might not be able to stay high in the BCS standings based on what they do on the field. They’re going to have to rely on Oregon, their best win, to continue to keep them high enough in the computer rankings.
“Whether Boise State is going to be able to stay close to TCU in the computers is going to depend on what Oregon does,” Edwards said. “One of the things the computers look at is who was your best win against? What is your best win and how good is it? And whenever you beat a team that hasn’t lost to anybody other than you, that’s as good as it gets as far as that element of the computer program. ... As long as Oregon hasn’t lost to anyone other than Boise State, it has a chance to help offset a lot of the weakness of the WAC. But if Oregon loses to USC, and especially if it loses again, then I think TCU could end up blowing by Boise in the computers.”
This is a tough situation for Boise State, with its fate tied to another team. All Boise State can do is beat the teams on its schedule and hope for the best, and as we’ve seen in past seasons, sometimes the Broncos' best isn’t good enough in the BCS’ eyes.
“Probably more so than any other team in the top 10, I think style points matter more for Boise State,” Edwards said. “I don’t think they can afford to play a close game.
“As far as what Boise can control, all they can control is going out and beating every opponent by as many points as possible to continue to impress the voters. They can’t control what Oregon does, they can’t control the weakness of the WAC. All they can do is just do everything in their power to stay ahead of TCU in the [human] polls.”
It’s fair to say that neither TCU nor Boise State have even footing as the BCS standings continue to shift like tectonic plates from week to week.
 | |
| Boyd Ivey/Icon SMI | |
| TCU running back Joseph Turner and the Horned Frogs jumped ahead in the polls after a win over BYU on Saturday. |
And what’s funny is that the roles could easily be reversed next week.
It’s not the human polls that are creating havoc in the BCS standings, it’s the computer rankings, which take into account strength of schedule not only of the teams in question but of the teams they’ve played. Hawaii’s strength of schedule was significantly lower than BYU’s, which helped push TCU ahead. TCU also was helped by Clemson’s win over a ranked Miami team. Boise State might have dropped further had Oregon not defeated Washington, which according to the Sagarin ratings, currently has the nation’s toughest schedule.
The Sagarin ratings are one of the six computer rankings used to make up one third of the poll. The coaches' poll and Harris poll are the other two components. The Broncos also were greatly aided by the confidence of the human polls, which both kept them at No. 5, above TCU.
“For Boise to have any chance of finishing ahead of TCU, they’re going to have to hold on to the advantage in the [human] polls,” ESPN BCS expert Brad Edwards said. “Depending on where the gap in the computers goes, it could increase from where it is now and Boise would obviously have to increase their lead in the polls in order to make up for it.
“If you asked me to handicap the race right now, with six weeks left, my money would be on them both finishing undefeated because I don’t think either one of them is going to lose. But then my prediction would be the TCU finishes ahead in the BCS.”
This week, Boise State and TCU could swap places again if both win and the human polls stay the same. Boise State’s opponent, San Jose State, has a Sagarin strength of schedule of No. 7. UNLV, TCU’s opponent, is No. 94.
As the weeks go by, it's becoming increasingly clear that that the Broncos might not be able to stay high in the BCS standings based on what they do on the field. They’re going to have to rely on Oregon, their best win, to continue to keep them high enough in the computer rankings.
“Whether Boise State is going to be able to stay close to TCU in the computers is going to depend on what Oregon does,” Edwards said. “One of the things the computers look at is who was your best win against? What is your best win and how good is it? And whenever you beat a team that hasn’t lost to anybody other than you, that’s as good as it gets as far as that element of the computer program. ... As long as Oregon hasn’t lost to anyone other than Boise State, it has a chance to help offset a lot of the weakness of the WAC. But if Oregon loses to USC, and especially if it loses again, then I think TCU could end up blowing by Boise in the computers.”
This is a tough situation for Boise State, with its fate tied to another team. All Boise State can do is beat the teams on its schedule and hope for the best, and as we’ve seen in past seasons, sometimes the Broncos' best isn’t good enough in the BCS’ eyes.
“Probably more so than any other team in the top 10, I think style points matter more for Boise State,” Edwards said. “I don’t think they can afford to play a close game.
“As far as what Boise can control, all they can control is going out and beating every opponent by as many points as possible to continue to impress the voters. They can’t control what Oregon does, they can’t control the weakness of the WAC. All they can do is just do everything in their power to stay ahead of TCU in the [human] polls.”
ABOUT THIS BLOG
College Football Nation
Have a question about college football? Ask our bloggers:
You must be signed in to post a comment