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TCU/Boise State overload in mailbag

11/17/2010

Thanks to all who have sent in messages this week. Keep them coming! Shockingly, they are nearly all about Boise State and TCU. Let me address the most common one at the top.

Kevin in Boise writes: I was hoping you could elaborate on your decision to still project TCU in the national championship game. TCU only has (1-9) New Mexico remaining. By projecting the Horned Frogs ahead of the Broncos are you assuming Boise will have a close game/ scare against either Fresno or Reno?

Andrea Adelson writes: Do you remember the outcry after Boise State beat Louisiana Tech 49-20 on a Tuesday night in October, having the audacity to give up 20 points on a “really weak” WAC team? Boise State dropped the following week from No. 2 to No. 3 in the coaches’ and Harris polls, and also dropped to No. 4 in the BCS standings. So, for those who think it is an absolute given for Boise State to pass TCU if both win out, think again. Boise State is under the same microscope from human voters that just dropped TCU in the polls last week because of a close win over a very good San Diego State team (a team that at 7-2 had a better record than Fresno State (6-3) going into Friday’s game against the Broncos). The computer average of Boise State and TCU will be very close at the end of the year, but I cannot say with 100 percent certainty that the voters will keep Boise State ahead of TCU in the human polls if the Broncos win any of these games unimpressively- - especially the finale against a bad Utah State team.

I love me some sarcasm, yes I do. These two made me chuckle:

Bill in Plano, Texas, writes: Since the Boise fans want to take the 2009-10 season into account for comparison purposes, don't you think that TCU should remain ranked above LSU since we beat them in the 1936 Sugar Bowl? Or should we just really consider the 2010 season on its own merit?

A retort from John in Boise, perhaps: Three part question. What team has the highest winning percentage all time in Division I-A/FBS. What team has the highest winning percentage in Division I-A/FBS over the last 10 years. What team has never lost a regular season game against the Mountain West Conference.

Brandon Brown in Cincinnati writes: After watching Auburn in person in Lexington (against Kentucky), I have no doubt Boise State could beat them.

Adelson writes: As Pat Forde would say, "Bus."


Joe in Tulsa writes: Enough about Boise and TCU. Let’s put them both in the Big 12 and then see how they fare.

Adelson writes: I'm sure they would love that. But alas, commissioner Dan Beebe and the rest of the Big 12 don't love that.


Tim A. in East Lansing writes: I was wondering whether you thought the biggest BCS enemy of Boise/TCU is the computers or the humans? After all, the computer rankings of TCU and Boise are 2 and 5 respectively. It's not like they're 8/9 in the computers. The computers do give them some respect. However, the humans seem to continually come up with reasons why they shouldn't be in the title game. Yet everyone blames the BCS and the computers and how it excludes the Non-AQ teams. Why aren't they blaming the humans? I think the humans are the part of the BCS that works the least, the computers are as objective as you can be.

Adelson writes: First, I would not call the human voters "enemies." But the human votes do have more weight than the computers do: two-thirds to one-third. At the end of the season, TCU and Boise State will have a computer average that is pretty close, so the human vote is most likely going to determine where they end up.


Kevin in Houston writes: Although there have been some big mistakes (i.e. dual quarterback rotation) this season, would you say that the way Bronco Mendenhall has been able to help this team regain its composure and gain excitement shows the great coach that he is?

Adelson writes: Mendenhall said yesterday this would be his most gratifying season if BYU made it to a bowl game. Granted, BYU has gotten the ship righted against some of the worst teams in the Mountain West. But you are right: the dual QBs combined with a brutal start to the schedule, then switching gears to a true freshman QB in Jake Heaps really killed BYU early on. That game against Utah all of a sudden is not looking like such a sure thing for the Utes.


Joshua Persson in Sherwood, Ark., writes: If TCU, Boise State, and Oregon win out and Auburn loses at Alabama but still beats South Carolina in the SEC Championship, would a one-loss, SEC champion Auburn still go to the BCS National Championship or would Boise State or TCU?

Adelson writes: Joshua, that is one of the biggest unanswered questions looming for Boise State and TCU. Much of it would depend on the human voters and how far they drop Auburn should the Tigers lose to Alabama. That to me will be quite interesting indeed, because it is quite possible the pollsters will still keep them ranked ahead of undefeated Boise State or TCU, especially if it’s a close game on the road against a rival. I believe a one-loss Auburn team is the biggest one-loss threat to the non-AQs.