Posted by ESPN.com’s Graham Watson

I was 6-4 last week after a couple tough losses, so that puts my overall record at 35-15 heading into the fifth week of the season. We’re getting into conference play, which means a little more parity in the matchups. There are a lot of good games this week, including a couple of nice tilts in the snow of Colorado.

Central Michigan 38, Eastern Michigan 10: For some reason Eastern Michigan has had Central Michigan’s number. The Eagles have won the last two and four of the last five against their in-state brethren. But all that stops this week. This is a confident Central Michigan team that is on a nice roll and could further distance itself in the MAC West race. It also helps that EMU quarterback Andy Schmitt, who broke all sorts of records against the Chippewas, including the NCAA record (all divisions) for completions, won’t be playing in the game.

Houston 48, Mississippi State 32: Houston is going to be motivated in the game to prove that it’s a better team than the one that lost to UTEP last week. The problem for Mississippi State is going to be keeping up with the Cougars scoring. Yes, the Houston defense has struggled this season, but Mississippi State hasn’t shown much on offense all year. If Houston quarterback Case Keenum can get into a rhythm, he should be able to do enough to keep a comfortable distance from the Bulldogs.

Utah 31, Colorado State 24: Utah has had two weeks to correct its issues, find running back depth and embrace the team that defeated Louisville before the break. Coach Kyle Whittingham said that was the best his team had played in all facets and he’s looking forward to seeing it again. But it won’t be easy. Colorado State is in a bit of a skid right now, but that doesn’t mean the Rams aren’t still a formidable contender. It's just a matter of whether the Rams defense can stop the Utes.

TCU 21, Air Force 6: This could be a hangover game for an Air Force team that suffered a rough loss to Navy last week. Although TCU has had some slow starts, it’s handled most of the opponents it’s faced with ease. The key here will by TCU’s rushing defense, which is tops in the country once again. The Horned Frogs are allowing 47 yards per game on the ground and the Air Force offense hasn’t shown a lot of diversity this season.

Louisville 30, Southern Miss 17: Southern Miss coach Larry Fedora has a lot of confidence in new starting quarterback Martevious Young, but starting his first game at Louisville is not an ideal situation. It will help that receiver DeAndre Brown and running back Damion Fletcher will be back in the lineup, but Young’s lack of passing experience in an actual game likely will hamper the offense.

Idaho 41, San Jose State 17: Anyone who’s watched Idaho this season should be pretty convinced that the Vandals offense is for real. The defense, on the other hand, is still a work in progress. However, against a San Jose State team that ranks last in the country in total offense with just 256.75 yards per game that might not be a problem. Idaho already has proven that it can win on the road and this game gets the Vandals one game away from bowl eligibility.

Fresno State 34, Hawaii 21: Hawaii’s rushing defense was severely exposed last week after allowing 352 rushing yards to Louisiana Tech, which should have Fresno State feeling pretty confident about notching its second win of the season. Running back Ryan Mathews is the nation’s second leading rusher with nearly 150 yards per game. And Hawaii will be breaking in a new quarterback, which might put the Warriors’ normally stout offense back on its heels.

UTEP 38, Memphis 17: The Miners are a bit of a mystery so far especially after putting up 58 points on a previously undefeated Houston team. But the team that beat the Cougars more closely resembles the one many expected the Miners to be this year. They should continue the winning trend against a Memphis team that at 1-4 (only win over Tennessee-Martin) has been a major disappointment so far this season.

Nevada 32, Louisiana Tech 27: Has Nevada finally shaken out of its funk? It’s hard to say, but the Nevada team that decimated UNLV last week sure looked like the one many were waiting for in South Bend in the season opener. However, Louisiana Tech comes in high off its win against Hawaii and now that it has its running game working, this could be an interesting ground matchup.

Toledo 34, Western Michigan 31: Honestly, it was between picking this game or UNLV-BYU and I went with the game I thought would be more competitive. Western Michigan was challenged this week to change the path its 2-3 season is currently on. The Broncos should give Toledo a game, but I’m not sure they can stay with the Rockets.

Wyoming 28, New Mexico 27: Although New Mexico is 0-5, the Lobos are actually getting better. Each week, they’ve scored more points than they did the previous week, and while I have them scoring fewer points this week, I think they give Wyoming a game. However, the Cowboys are playing really well behind freshman starting quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels and are going to be tough to beat, especially at home.