Scouting the Hokies' chances at the national title
October, 12, 2009
10/12/09
5:40
PM ET
Posted by ESPN.com's Heather Dinich
ESPN just released its Mock BCS Standings, and Virginia Tech is No. 3.
I just spent over 20 minutes on the phone with Brad Edwards, our BCS guru, who is the right man to help me explain this to you. Here are the main points of our conversation:
- First of all, it's important to remember that this mock ranking is based on the here and now -- what it would look like this week -- NOT what the real BCS Standings might look like on Sunday. Right now, most of the computers have Texas ranked in the double digits. Virginia Tech has the edge over Texas because of their strength of schedule (SOS). Even though the Hokies have a loss, it's a high quality loss. Virginia Tech's two wins over Nebraska and Miami are bigger of any of Texas' wins.
- The problem for the Hokies is that there's nowhere for them to climb. Edwards told me that even if the Hokies beat Georgia Tech on Saturday, they'll most likely stay where they are in the computers. Meanwhile, though, a win over Oklahoma would boost Texas above them. So don't expect Virginia Tech to still be sitting at No. 3 on Sunday if the Longhorns win.
- If Iowa wins out, they would probably jump Virginia Tech. The same isn't necessarily true for Cincinnati. The fact is the Big Ten would get more credit than the Big East. USC also has a chance to jump Virginia Tech, as does LSU.
- What Virginia Tech really needs is for Alabama to lose twice. If Bama has one loss, many voters would probably have a hard time putting the Hokies ahead of them because of the head-to-head Bama win. Also, there's a human element, and some pollsters might not want to see a rematch of a game that was already played this year. In the end, this could be the second time in three seasons that Virginia Tech misses the national championship because it was bold enough to schedule an SEC team. While playing Bama helped the Hokies' SOS, the loss could come back to haunt them just like it did against LSU in 2007.
- The most important thing for the Hokies to do right now is win and look good doing it. They can hold off the teams behind them, but they can't control Alabama. Virginia Tech has to be the first in line of one-loss teams.
- This Georgia Tech game is the biggest one remaining on the Hokies' schedule. USC, however, still has Notre Dame and Oregon. This week's game in Atlanta can offset USC's matchup against the Irish. And the fact that the Hokies are already ahead of USC in the polls will help. But Virginia Tech cannot afford to play close games against what would be regarded as inferior competition. If they beat Georgia Tech and win out handily, they should be able to hold off USC.
For those of you wondering about Miami, Edwards had the Canes at No. 12 in the mock ranking. He said the two computers we can see right now have the Canes as the 13th best team. Why? Because FSU has gone downhill and Oklahoma's two losses in five games isn't impressive.
Hopefully that answers a lot of your questions. We'll revisit this when the real BCS Standings when they are released on Sunday.



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