Monday, November 30, 2009
How likely is an Alabama-Florida rematch?
By Chris Low
As you might expect, the "what if?" question is circulating pretty rapidly among Alabama and Florida fans right now.
In short, what happens if Alabama and Florida play a classic game that goes down to the final minutes and Texas loses to Nebraska in the Big 12 championship game?
According to Brad Edwards, ESPN's BCS expert, a rematch between Alabama and Florida in the BCS National Championship Game isn't likely.
He thinks TCU would have the best chance in that scenario to slip into the BCS National Championship Game followed by Cincinnati, provided the Bearcats beat Pittsburgh. Edwards thinks the odds are against a one-loss SEC team hurdling an unbeaten TCU or an unbeaten Cincinnati into one of those top two spots in the final BCS standings.
But he's also not completely ruling it out.
If it does happen, he thinks a one-loss Florida team would have a better chance than a one-loss Alabama team.
The key would be the two human polls, because Edwards thinks a one-loss Florida team would still be ranked ahead of TCU in the computers. That means TCU would need to be ahead of Florida on about two-thirds of the human ballots to make up the difference.
Here's the other thing to consider: Can you imagine being either Alabama or Florida and making it through the season unscathed in the SEC and then winning the championship game against an unbeaten team ... and then turning around a month later and having to play that same team again?
Something tells me that the team that wins this weekend in Atlanta wouldn't be too keen on that scenario.