Monday, December 30, 2013
SEC bowl picks
By Chris Low
Ready or not, the bowl season is upon us, and the first of 10 games involving SEC teams kicks off later Monday when Mississippi State takes on Rice in the Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl.
As my esteemed colleague, Edward Aschoff, has reminded you at every turn over the last few weeks, he takes a three-game lead into the bowl games. It’s reminiscent of a year ago when I dug myself a hole and couldn’t climb out of it.
We’ll see if I have better luck this time.
The only game we’re not picking at this point is the VIZIO BCS National Championship Game. We’ll wait until we’re a little closer to the Jan. 6 matchup between Auburn and Florida State to unveil our picks for that contest.
Edward is 97-17 (.851) for the season after correctly picking Auburn to beat Missouri in the SEC championship game. I’m 94-20 (.825) after picking the wrong set of Tigers in that game.
But we’re all about the future on the SEC blog, and let’s hope my vision into the future is at least three games better than the ATL Kid’s.
Here’s a look at our picks:
FRANKLIN AMERICAN MORTGAGE MUSIC CITY BOWL
Edward Aschoff: The Rebels didn't end the season on a very high note, as losses to Missouri and Mississippi State put a bit of a damper on an otherwise impressive season. But this team is highly motivated for this game and should have the advantage in the playmaker department. … Ole Miss 24, Georgia Tech 21
Chris Low: Ole Miss’ offense went missing the last two regular-season games. The Rebels managed just one offensive touchdown in losses to Missouri and Mississippi State. It’s never much fun going up against a triple-option offense, either, but Ole Miss and Bo Wallace will gain a little redemption heading into the offseason. … Ole Miss 31, Georgia Tech 21
AUTOZONE LIBERTY BOWL
Aschoff: The Bulldogs pulled out back-to-back overtime wins to get into this game. It wasn't a pretty season, but Dan Mullen has now guided his team to a fourth straight bowl game for the first time in school history. While the Bulldogs are riding high, Rice has won nine out of 10 and has the running game to frustrate Mississippi State's defense. … Rice 24, Mississippi State 21
Low: Having a healthy Dak Prescott will be huge for Mississippi State, which also happens to be playing its best defense of the season. The Bulldogs won’t completely shut down Rice’s running game, but will slow it down enough to get the Owls out of their comfort zone. There will be a ton of maroon in the stands at the Liberty Bowl, and their short trip back home will be a happy one. … Mississippi State 28, Rice 24
Aschoff: Johnny Manziel is no stranger to the ATL, but he finally gets a shot at getting a victory inside the Georgia Dome. The Aggies ended the season on a bit of a skid, but the layoff should give them a chance to get both healthy and focused. Duke has been a great story this year, but the Blue Devils just don't have the athletes to slow down A&M. … Texas A&M 41, Duke 27
Low: It’s Manziel’s last stand in a Texas A&M uniform, and he’s hoping to go out a lot better than he finished the regular season. The Aggies had better not sleep on a Duke team that hasn’t won a bowl game in more than 50 years. The Blue Devils are a capable and confident bunch, but a rested, healthier Manziel will be too much for the Duke defense. … Texas A&M 45, Duke 28
TAXSLAYER.COM GATOR BOWL
Aschoff: The Hutson Mason era takes yet another big step forward. If only we hadn't seen this game a year ago. Still, the Bulldogs should be motivated to get some momentum going into the offseason. This one should feature a lot of scoring and some big plays from Todd Gurley, which will prove to be the difference. … Georgia 38, Nebraska 31
Low: Even without record-setting quarterback Aaron Murray, Georgia is a heavy favorite. Nebraska didn’t play particularly well during the second half of the season and enters the game having lost two of its last three. Bowl rematches aren’t ideal, but the Dawgs will get a glimpse of the future with QB Mason leading them to their ninth win of the season. … Georgia 35, Nebraska 24
BBVA COMPASS BOWL
Aschoff: After another successful season under James Franklin, the Commodores are headed to a school-record third straight bowl game. Two fun offenses take the field in Birmingham, but Vandy will be without its starting quarterback. This is a big stage for Patton Robinette, but having Jordan Matthews next to him to make plays should take the pressure off him. … Vanderbilt 23, Houston 21
Low: Think of the money you could have won in Vegas had you predicted Vanderbilt to win nine games in back-to-back seasons. The Commodores can do just that if they can take care of Houston in Birmingham. The Cougars hit the skids down the stretch and lost three of their last four games. They were held to 17 points or fewer in all three losses. The Commodores' secondary, one of the better ones in the SEC, will be the difference in this game. ... Vanderbilt 28, Houston 23
Aschoff: The Tigers showed some real heart and guts after losing to Alabama in early November. But with Zach Mettenberger out with a knee injury, the Tigers turn to freshman Anthony Jennings. Iowa doesn't light the scoreboard up, but it grinds games out and isn't afraid to get really physical. There's something about the Hawkeyes and the SEC, and it doesn't bode well for the Tigers, who know all too well how dangerous Iowa is. … Iowa 24, LSU 20
Low: Like Georgia and Vanderbilt, LSU will be playing without its starting quarterback in the bowl game. Mettenberger injured his knee in the regular-season finale. Jennings will have his hands full, but he has enough offensive firepower around him in the form of Jeremy Hill, Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. that the Tigers will snap their two-game bowl losing streak. … LSU 27, Iowa 23
CAPITAL ONE BOWL
Aschoff: The Badgers own one of the nation's best rushing attacks, while the Gamecocks have one of the country's best defensive lines. We've found out lately just how fast Jadeveon Clowney can be, and he'll have his hands full with Wisconsin's offensive line and running back duo of Melvin Gordon and James White. Something tells me this Gamecocks' line is excited about the challenge. … South Carolina 27, Wisconsin 20
Low: The Head Ball Coach and the Gamecocks are shooting for their third consecutive 11-win season but will have to go through a tough Wisconsin team to do it. This has all the makings of being one of the best games of the bowl season. Mike Davis will upstage Wisconsin’s two-pronged running attack to give South Carolina its third straight bowl victory. … South Carolina 30, Wisconsin 27
AT&T COTTON BOWL
Aschoff: It's like we'll be watching an old Big 12 game inside Jerry's World! And with the way both of these offenses played during the regular season, the scoreboard will look like it, too. Both of these teams are hungry to prove themselves after losing out on BCS bowl games the last time they went out. Mizzou's defense was run over by Auburn and now has to face a very good passing offense. The good news is that the Tigers can air it out and grind it out themselves. … Missouri 34, Oklahoma State 31
Low: It has been a terrific bounce-back season for Missouri in its second year in the SEC. Getting to the SEC championship game and winning 11 games, especially with starting quarterback James Franklin missing a key stretch of the season, speaks for itself. The Tigers, though, run into an Oklahoma State team in the bowl game that can also score points and is much improved on defense. … Oklahoma State 38, Missouri 34
ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL
Aschoff: Alabama's dream of a BCS title three-peat ended on a miracle play on the Plains, so now the Crimson Tide have to figure out a way to be motivated on Bourbon Street. Oklahoma has a ton of momentum after its upset win over Oklahoma State to get into this game. Bama wanted more, but players sound motivated and they'll carry the responsibility of representing the "SEC propaganda" OU coach Bob Stoops is tired of. … Alabama 31, Oklahoma 14
Low: If not for one of the most improbable plays we’ve seen in college football, maybe ever, Alabama easily could be playing for its third straight national championship. Instead, the Crimson Tide will have to settle for a Sugar Bowl matchup with Oklahoma and are itching to take out a little frustration on the Sooners. That’s no propaganda, either. … Alabama 38, Oklahoma 17