ESPN College Football

I cooled off a bit last week, going 5-1 and missing Kentucky’s upset of Georgia.

So that means I’ve hit 20 of my last 21. Notice the trace of disappointment in my voice? You see, we strive for perfection in the SEC.

One bad season, one bad week … and you’re gone in this league.

For the year, I’m now 75-14 (.843). Big week coming up. But, then, they’re all big.

Here are my picks for week 13:

FRIDAY

Alabama 27, Auburn 21: Something says that Auburn is going to rise up and play one of its best games of the season. The Tigers have had a week off, and you know Gus Malzahn is going to have a few wrinkles for the Alabama defense. Look for another fourth-quarter game … and another Alabama win.

SATURDAY

Ole Miss 24, Mississippi State 17: This has classic letup written all over it for the Rebels, who are coming off two huge wins at home. Meanwhile, this is the Bulldogs’ last chance to salvage their season and keep from finishing 4-8 for the second year in a row. It won’t be easy, but the Rebels will make enough plays on defense to survive this Egg Bowl test.

Georgia Tech 38, Georgia 28: The Bulldogs haven’t lost two in a row to the Yellow Jackets since dropping three straight in this series from 1998-2000. You just wonder where this Georgia team is emotionally right now. It’s already been a long season for Mark Richt and Co., and it’s about to get even longer.

Florida 37, Florida State 13: It’s sure to be a teary-eyed sendoff for the Florida seniors, who’ve compiled a 46-6 record during their stay in Gainesville. None of those guys have ever lost to the Seminoles, either, and they’re not about to start now. Tim Tebow and his classmates will go out in style in the Swamp.

LSU 28, Arkansas 24: While realizing that the Hogs haven’t been the same team on the road this season, the real mystery in this one is how the Tigers will respond from the bitter Ole Miss loss and the avalanche of negativity this week surrounding Les Miles. Look for the Tigers to rally around their embattled coach and lock up a trip to the Cotton Bowl.

Tennessee 24, Kentucky 20: A lot of signs point to the Wildcats breaking through and ending the drought once and for all. They’re playing well. They’re playing with confidence, and the Vols are beaten up on defense. But seeing is believing, and for whatever reason, Tennessee has always seemed to find a way to win this game and Kentucky has always found a way to lose it.

South Carolina 21, Clemson 20: Talk about going against the grain. Clemson has won 10 of the last 12 meetings in this series and is streaking toward a date with Georgia Tech in the ACC championship game. South Carolina, on the other hand, is trying to avoid a late-season collapse for the third straight year. The Gamecocks have had a week off and are good enough on defense to keep C.J. Spiller in check. They’re also due for a big win at home.

It’s the last week of the season for many teams and, for several, the last chance to wrap up division and conference titles. It’s hard to pick which matchup I’m most looking forward to seeing -- probably East Carolina and Southern Miss -- but Friday's game between Boise State and Nevada should be interesting as well. And don't forget the MAC East game between Temple and Ohio, which should be a doozy.

I went 7-3 last week to bring my season record to 86-36. That’s a 70 percent average for those scoring at home. I’m hoping to bring it up to 71 percent after this week. Lucky for me, I’ll wipe the slate clean for championship week and bowls.

Temple 26, Ohio 21: The battle for the MAC East title comes down to this one game. Temple has been one of the hottest teams in the country, winning nine straight after losing their first two. However, Ohio has battled its way into this position and won’t give up title without a fight. Temple’s running game has been tough to stop all season and that’s what does Ohio in this week.

Wyoming 24, Colorado State 20: The Battle for the Bronze Boot could mean a bowl berth for Wyoming if they can pull out a victory in Fort Collins, Colo. The Rams have won four of the last five meetings, but have yet to win a conference game this year. Wyoming is coming off a bad loss to TCU, but Cowboys have been able to beat the lower teams in the conference this season.

Bowling Green 31, Toledo 24: This is a rivalry game, but only Bowling Green is playing for something other than pride. The Falcons need a win to notch seven victories on the season and earn a bowl berth. Toledo has been beaten up the past couple weeks and is playing a freshman quarterback. Bowling Green has won three consecutive games since its bye week.

Boise State 34, Nevada 24: A lot of people are expecting this to be a high scoring game, but I’m going against the grain. The Nevada running game will be going against the toughest run defense it’s faced this season. The run game will wear down the clock, which will keep the scoring low. The key for Nevada will be controlling the Boise State passing game, which is one of the best in the country. The Nevada secondary has been one of the weaker spots of the team.

TCU 51, New Mexico 10: TCU needs this win to secure an outright Mountain West title and a BCS berth. The Horned Frogs didn’t get up for their game against Wyoming last week and still walked away with a 45-10 win. The same could happen this week, though I think the defense will play inspired since its senior day for players such as defensive end Jerry Hughes and linebacker Daryl Washington.

Southern Miss 27, East Carolina 26: This game could really go either way because these teams are pretty even. I’m going with Southern Miss because I picked the Golden Eagles to win the East title back in the summer. They have a better quarterback and a more consistent running game. The key will be turnovers and which team’s defense shows up to play.

BYU 24, Utah 20: For the first time since the 2005 season, this game will not decide the conference champion, but it’s still the Holy War and there’s still a lot of emotions at stake as these teams battle for second place in the conference. BYU gets the edge because it’s a veteran team and it’s playing at home, but Utah has played well all season and BYU has buckled in pressure games at home this year.

Louisiana-Monroe 30, Middle Tennessee 28: This is the upset special of the week. Louisiana-Monroe is playing for its bowl life in this game. It needs a seventh win to guarantee a postseason spot. Middle Tennessee has been great this season, but the Warhawks are the best team the Blue Raiders have faced in awhile and with so much on the line, ULM will give MTSU a run for its money.

Troy 31, Louisiana-Lafayette 24: The Trojans are on verge of history. They could finish the conference season undefeated for the first time and win their second outright conference title. Louisiana-Lafayette has put itself in a position to go to a bowl game with a win, but Troy has dominated every Sun Belt team it has faced and this shouldn’t be any different.

Houston 40, Rice 20: The Battle for the Bayou Bucket is just as intriguing as it was a year ago. Last year, Rice knocked Houston out of contention for the C-USA West title and could do so again with a win. Houston has struggled against some of its conference opponents and Rice, which has won its last two games, will have a little bit of a swagger coming in.

It’s Thanksgiving week, so our schedule is a little different and the picks are coming at you early.

I got one wrong last week. I should’ve stuck with my gut and picked North Carolina, but I was impressed with BC’s ability to win at home. So it goes. My overall picks percentage stands at 70.4 percent (62 of 88), and I’ve got one final week in the regular season to redeem myself. Here goes:

Maryland 21, BC 17 – If the Terps were going to give up this year, they would’ve done it long before the last play of the fourth quarter at Florida State last week. Boston College is turning the ball over at an alarming rate, and got fortunate with its road win over Virginia. I say the Terps win one for the Fridge on Senior Day.

Clemson 20, South Carolina 10 – The Gamecocks’ offense is inept, but their young defense is respectable. Just ask NC State, which is scoring 30.5 points per game now but was held to three in the season opener. Still, the Tigers’ defensive line will handily win the battle up front and that will be the difference.

Florida 31, Florida State 21 – This isn’t going to be a “name your score” type of game, but Florida’s defense will be too much for the Noles to overcome. Odds are it takes E.J. Manuel some time to settle down in his first trip to the Swamp, but Jimbo Fisher’s offense will continue to score and Florida’s offense will continue to look pedestrian, even against FSU’s defense.

North Carolina 21, NC State 17 – In the end, North Carolina’s defense will outweigh all of the Wolfpack’s emotion, and the Tar Heels’ juniors will get their first win in the series. UNC will pressure quarterback Russell Wilson into a few mistakes, and the Tar Heels will have a respectable day on offense against a defense ranked No. 100 in the nation in scoring defense.

Georgia Tech 35, Georgia 17 – The Bulldogs don’t have a dependable quarterback or a defense, and the Yellow Jackets have both. Georgia Tech’s defense has shown steady improvement over the past few weeks, while Georgia’s has allowed at least 30 points in 10 of its past 20 games. The Jackets were able to run at will in their win in Athens last year and should have similar success at home on Saturday.

South Florida 24, Miami 21 – The Bulls' loss at Rutgers was a fluke, but it seems like they go as their quarterback, B.J. Daniels goes. Same situation at Miami, as the Canes seem to thrive on the energy of Jacory Harris. We saw what Daniels was able to do against Florida State, and Miami’s defense doesn’t seem as scary these days.

Virginia Tech 21, Virginia 17 – Because this game is in Charlottesville, it should be close. It’s likely to be a final farewell not only to the seniors, but also to coach Al Groh, whose future at Virginia is in doubt. But the Hokies are the better team and they’ve held the upper hand in this rivalry. There’s no reason to think that will change now.

Duke 28, Wake Forest 24 – Both teams have lost their bowl opportunities, and are very similar statistically, but this game will feature two of the ACC’s most accomplished senior quarterbacks, and neither of them want to go out on a losing note. Wake quarterback Riley Skinner took the loss to Florida State pretty hard, and he had the bye week to think about it. Duke squandered a third-quarter lead at Miami, but quarterback Thaddeus Lewis has a chance to leave with six wins.

First, Happy Thanksgiving week to everybody. We all have so much to be thankful for.

I only hope these picks this week will have a little less stuffing and a little more meat on the bone as we finish the regular season.

Another solid 5-for-6 picking week for me again last week, missing only on Oklahoma at Texas Tech. I didn’t think the Red Raiders or their quarterback Taylor “Nick” Potts could humble the Oklahoma defense like he did.

We’ve got some interesting games this week that will determine whether Texas still has national championship hopes and if Oklahoma State has a legitimate shot to make the BCS as an at-large selection.

Here’s how I see them:

Texas 31, Texas A&M 20: Colt McCoy’s competitive juices will be flowing as he faces a Texas A&M team that beat him twice and knocked him out of the game as a freshman. Those memories will be all that he will need to get ready for the Aggies. Will Muschamp was worried about all of the missed tackles against Kansas and he’ll be facing a similarly talented team with an underrated quarterback in Jerrod Johnson. The Aggies will keep this close for awhile, but Texas has too much riding on the results to expect anything less than the best effort from the Longhorns.

Nebraska 23, Colorado 10: These two teams have played some great games in recent seasons. But the Cornhuskers’ defense is too solid not to come prepared, even if it did clinch the North title last week. The Colorado team should be poised for an emotional effort in what could be Dan Hawkins’ last game. Despite Colorado’s ‘strong showing at Oklahoma State last week, the Nebraska defense will be ready to throttle Tyler Hansen and whatever offense the Buffaloes can muster. Look for Alex Henery to be a huge factor kicking in the high altitude in Boulder.

Oklahoma 24, Oklahoma State 21: The Sooners were humiliated in a blowout loss at Texas Tech that ranks as one of the most humbling defeats in the Bob Stoops era. Oklahoma State comes to Norman with more riding on the game than in any in their recent history as the Cowboys could claim a BCS at-large berth with a victory if Texas wins the Big 12 title next week. Mike Gundy promises that Zac Robinson will be ready to play after sitting out last week with a shoulder injury. The Sooners still have “Jump Around” ringing in their ears after last week’s debacle on the High Plains. That memory alone should have them ready to rebound as they attempt to stretch their nation-best 29-game home winning streak.

Missouri 45, Kansas 35: These two old rivals hook up for the 118th time as the Indian War Drum will be at stake. Mark Mangino’s job appears to be on the line as an internal investigation collects information about his coaching methods. The Jayhawks will be playing for a bowl berth that would give them three post-season trips for an unprecedented season. But they will be facing a sizzling Missouri offense keyed by Blaine Gabbert and Danario Alexander that appears to be peaking as the season continues. In the end, the Tigers have too much firepower as they will outscore the Jayhawks in what should be an offensive battle.

Texas Tech 35, Baylor 21: The Bears and Red Raiders visit Cowboys Stadium in Arlington for the first neutral-site battle in the 68-game history of the series. Baylor’s bowl hopes were quashed with last week’s loss at Texas A&M. And Texas Tech is coming off its most impressive victory of the season after a resounding 41-13 thumping of Oklahoma. Even with both programs seemingly headed in different directions, Baylor coach Art Briles will have his team ready to play against his old employers. But the Red Raiders have too many offensive and defensive weapons and should wear down the Bears in the second half.

Last week: 5-1 (83.3 percent)

Season record: 69-23 (75.0 percent)

OK, I've officially learned my lesson about being cocky.

Last week, I got chesty about my run of undefeated weeks and even talked trash to the other ESPN.com bloggers about how my record was the best on the site. The results were predictable.

Crash. Burn.

Last week's 1-2 record was my worst showing of the year. I'm half-convinced that Syracuse won its first Big East game since 2006 over somebody other than Louisville just to deflate my ego. Oh, well. We've got a full slate of games this week, and I enter it humbled and hungry.

Friday

Pitt 24, West Virginia 17: Pitt has owned West Virginia the past two years, and this is the best Panthers team that Dave Wannstedt has brought into the Backyard Brawl. Given how the Mountaineers have struggled to score points over the last month and change, plus how well Pitt is playing defensively, I see this becoming a three-game win streak and setting us up for the mother of all Big East showdowns on Dec. 5.

Cincinnati 38, Illinois 17: The Illini are dangerous, especially on offense. They put up 38 in a win over Michigan and 35 in a victory at Minnesota. But the Bearcats have had a week off to prepare, and they've gotten an earful about how they weren't as impressive as TCU the past two times out. With that as motivation, and the return of Tony Pike at quarterback for Senior Day at Nippert Stadium, I sense a big performance coming.

Rutgers 20, Louisville 12: This is not one that fans of exciting offense will want to DVR. The Cardinals are the lowest-scoring team in the Big East, while Rutgers has plenty of trouble moving the ball. I think the Scarlet Knights are still smarting from last week's loss at Syracuse and won't repeat the same mistakes they made. Louisville has been sneakily decent defensively and will keep this game close. But Rutgers' blitz packages and cornerbacks will prevent the Cardinals from finding the end zone enough to win.

Saturday

Miami 31, South Florida 24: This is exactly the kind of game you can envision South Florida winning. Sold-out stadium, players jacked up against an in-state behemoth. The Bulls certainly rode a tidal wave of emotion to great effect at Florida State in September. But this Miami team is better than the Seminoles and has the athletes to contain B.J. Daniels as the Hurricanes' defense showed in a win over option-happy Georgia Tech earlier in the year. South Florida hangs around and has a chance to win late but will have to settle for one defining win over the Big Three this season.

Connecticut 23, Syracuse 13: I get the feeling that the Notre Dame win lifted a burden off UConn's shoulders after all those close losses, and the team will finish strong down the stretch. I also get the feeling that the Orange emptied their payload in the Rutgers win at home. The Huskies probably aren't capable of really blowing anyone out, and the Syracuse run defense can keep Jordan Todman and Andre Dixon below their normal stats. But in the end UConn gets bowl eligible without too much resistance.

Last week: 1-2

Season record: 50-10 (83.3 percent)

Only one game on tap this week, and it's a chance for the Big Ten to notch a major nonconference victory.

Cincinnati 38, Illinois 27: The Illini have quietly run the ball well this year, ranking 24th nationally in rushing, and Cincinnati seems vulnerable against the run right now. Running backs Mikel LeShoure and Jason Ford keep Illinois in this one for a while, but the Bearcats offense eventually proves to be too much. Cincinnati simply has too many weapons for an Illinois defense that struggles in the back seven. Zach Collaros and the Bearcats pull away late, and Mardy Gilyard hauls in two touchdowns.

Week 12 record: 4-1

Season record: 61-24 (.717)

Picks come early on Thanksgiving week.

Went 3-1 last week and improved to 50-17 on the year.

USC 24, UCLA 21: I'm curious to see how USC comes out after a bye week. The Bruins need to win to improve their chances of receiving an at-large bowl berth. USC needs to win to keep its Holiday Bowl hopes alive! It must be very exciting for the Trojans not to have to suffer through another, ugh!, Rose Bowl.

Arizona 28, Arizona State 17: These are two wounded teams, both physically and emotionally. The Wildcats should win because they are the better team. That said, it won't be easy to bounce back from the dispiriting loss to Oregon.

Stanford 44, Notre Dame 35: Charlie Weis' last game atop the Fighting Irish? Might his team play hard for the ole coach? Maybe. But it seems like the matchup of the Cardinal's physical run game against the Irish's bad run defense is a major mismatch.

Washington 40, Washington State 24: The Huskies probably won't get 50, as predicted by tight end Kavario Middleton, but they will win big at home vs. the limping Cougars.

Like Charlie Weis, I took a loss last week. Unlike Weis, I'm not going to lose my job because of it. Right, boss? Uh, boss?

One more to go. Let's finish strong.

Stanford 35, Notre Dame 28: What possible evidence do we have to suggest Notre Dame can win this game?

The Irish defense has been steamrolled in the running game for three straight weeks, and now it must somehow deal with the bull in a china shop that is Toby Gerhart, the nation's third-leading rusher. Gerhart and quarterback Andrew Luck should have a fun time at Jon Tenuta's expense, and you know Jim Harbaugh wants to drop the hammer as much as possible, just like he did against USC.

Notre Dame doesn't have much to play for, with a coach on his way out and already saddled with five losses. But to pick anything more than a seven-point margin would be to ignore the history of this season. Perhaps Weis rallies the team around him for a last stand; more likely, it will resemble Custer's attempt at the same feat.

Last week's pick: Notre Dame 28, UConn 24

Actual score: UConn 33, Notre Dame 30 (2OT)

Season record: 8-3