ESPN College Football

NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- I've been on Vanderbilt's campus for much of the day and spent some time with the Commodores' coaches and players.

There's no question a new energy surrounds this program, and there's certainly not a feeling of contentment just because Vanderbilt went to a bowl game last season in James Franklin's first year on the job.

"We were 6-7. We had a losing record," Vanderbilt senior cornerback Trey Wilson said. "We expect a lot more out of ourselves than that, and we're going back to work to make sure we get a lot more out of next season. Nobody around here is satisfied."

Franklin is bringing in the highest-rated signing class in school history. Most of those guys won't be on campus until the summer, but Franklin envisions even more competition for positions than last season.

And he means everywhere.

"We still don't have the depth we need, but we're going to have competition," Franklin said. "I want everybody in the program to feel like there's no favoritism and no politics. Even for the guys who played last year, and they have a leg up, but you're going to have to earn your job every day. That's important, and getting these freshmen in here and allowing them to have an opportunity to compete and play will help us."

One of the hottest battles could be at quarterback. Jordan Rodgers stepped in at midseason a year ago and provided a huge boost to the offense, but Austyn Carta-Samuels is eligible after transferring from Wyoming and is pushing hard this spring.

"The sky's the limit for us with the competitive nature that coach Franklin has created," said Carta-Samuels, whose grandfather, Tom, played baseball at Vanderbilt. "That's why I came here, and you know you're going to get an opportunity to play if you're the best player."

Carta-Samuels had 2,094 yards in total offense in 2010 and started 11 games that season for Wyoming. He said he visited Vanderbilt out of high school and that there's no comparison in the caliber of players here now as compared to 2008 when he was visiting.

Two of the Commodores' priorities this spring, according to Franklin, are throwing the ball more accurately than they did last season on offense and not giving up as many big plays on defense. They completed just 51.7 percent of their passes, and defensive coordinator Bob Shoop said they gave up 46 big plays (a running play of at least 15 yards or passing play of at least 25 yards).

Shoop said the Commodores' goal is no more than two big plays per game.

"Where we fell short was we gave up too many big plays," Shoop said. "Five percent of the snaps against us accounted for one-third of the total offense."

Replacing middle linebacker Chris Marve and his leadership will also be a chore. Shoop said a key to the Commodores' success last season (they finished 18th nationally in total defense) was the way Marve bought into Shoop and his defense.

Junior Chase Garnham is moving into Marve's middle linebacker spot, but it will take several players to fill the leadership void created by Marve's departure. Defensive end Walker May, defensive tackle Rob Lohr, safety Javon Marshall and Wilson are all ready to take that step.

"We're light years ahead of where we were last year," Shoop said. "Our first group out there practicing right now ... I like the way they're practicing. Our second group, those guys are a lot of redshirt guys and scout-team guys. They're figuring it out."

Freshman linebacker Darreon Herring is an early enrollee and going through spring practice. Shoop thinks he has an excellent chance to be in the rotation next season. The same goes for freshman linebacker Jake Sealand, who will be on campus this summer.

Today we will take a look at open quarterback competitions among the non-AQ schools going into the spring. There will be plenty of fresh faces throughout the non-AQs, and you will see that in the Mountain West. Incredibly, TCU will have a new starting quarterback for the first time since 2006 with Andy Dalton gone to the next level.

Three other schools have open positions as well. Let’s take a closer look:

New Mexico

Who’s competing: Nobody is really out as the starter, considering the Lobos played four different quarterbacks this past season for various reasons. All four are back. B.R. Holbrook, the presumptive starter, had knee surgery at the end of the season and his status for the spring is up in the air. Freshman Stump Godfrey started the last five games, and freshman Tarean Austin also played. So did Brad Gruner, who has been a backup his entire career. Godfrey and Austin definitely gained experience last season, so that should help them out, but coach Mike Locksley wants this to be a wide-open competition to see who will step up.

TCU

Who’s out: Dalton.

Who’s competing: Sophomore Casey Pachall and redshirt freshman Matt Brown. Pachall served as Dalton’s backup last season and saw extended action in the season finale against New Mexico after Dalton injured his elbow. He appears to be the heir apparent. But just because he has some playing experience doesn’t mean the job will be handed to him. Brown was one of the top dual-threat quarterbacks in Texas when he signed with the Horned Frogs in 2010 after initially committing to Arizona. He redshirted this past season. Both have ability, but you know coach Gary Patterson will be looking for that huge intangible Dalton had in spades -- leadership. One other note: Yogi Gallegos, on the roster the past three seasons, has elected to transfer.

UNLV

Who’s out: Omar Clayton ended his career as one of the best quarterbacks in school history.

Who’s competing: The Rebels only have two returning quarterbacks on the roster: sophomore-to-be Caleb Herring and redshirt freshman Taylor Barnhill. But they did sign a junior college transfer in January who is already enrolled in school (Sean Reilly). He spent last season starting for Saddleback College in Mission Viejo, Calif., going 200-for-330 for 2,323 yards and 20 touchdowns with just six interceptions. Herring was Clayton’s backup last season and saw extended playing time, looking good in spurts. But this one appears to be a three-man race headed into the spring, with Herring and Reilly the top two challengers.

Wyoming

Who’s out: Austyn Carta-Samuels decided to transfer.

Who’s competing: Redshirt freshman Emory Miller and true freshman Brett Smith. Not the ideal situation for the Cowboys, who were banking on Carta-Samuels returning until he changed his mind. Backup Dax Crum was a senior so now you are left with two players who have never taken a snap in a college game. At least Miller has been in the program for one season after redshirting in 2010. Smith graduated from high school early, enrolled in January and will be eligible for spring practice.

Earlier today, I had a breakdown on why Houston missed a bowl game this season. Now here is a breakdown of several other 2009 bowl teams that missed out in 2010.

Bowling Green

What happened: The Falcons had one of the youngest teams in the country going into the season and they had big shoes to fill with the departure of quarterback Tyler Sheehan and receiver Freddie Barnes. The offense struggled all season, especially the run game, which ranked last in the nation. The Falcons also lost four games by three points or fewer.

Bowling in 2011? Plenty of players return, so they should have the experience, but a big question is whether Matt Schilz can take the next step at quarterback. He already has his go-to target in Kamar Jorden.

Central Michigan

What happened: It's never easy to replace one of the best players in school history in Dan LeFevour, who led the team in rushing and passing last season. Ryan Radcliff held his own at quarterback, but threw way too many interceptions (17 TDs and 17 INTs). The Chippewas struggled to find consistency with their offensive line, failing to protect the quarterback (33 sacks allowed) or establish a decent run game. They also had problems taking care of the football, ranking as one of the worst in the country in turnover margin.

Bowling in 2011? It all depends on the development of Radcliff, and a big-time replacement for linebacker Nick Bellore.

Idaho

What happened: Quarterback Nathan Enderle may have thrown for more yards this season than last, but that is because he had way more attempts. The reason? Idaho could never get its running game going, averaging 88.5 yards a game. The offensive line was a problem because it also failed to protect Enderle -- Idaho gave up 45 sacks this season, third worst in the country. Enderle also saw his completion percentage and yards per attempt drop, and his interceptions go up (from nine to 16). The Vandals were also one of the most penalized teams in the nation.

Bowling in 2011? Leaning no. Idaho is losing Enderle and a lot of senior leadership in defensive end Aaron Lavarias, linebacker JoJo Dickson, safety Shiloh Keoh, tight end Daniel Hardy and receiver Eric Greenwood.

Marshall

What happened: Inconsistency at quarterback, along the offensive line and in the kicking game. Marshall struggled to run the ball, ranking No. 113 in the country and averaging 97.2 yards a game. Much of that was because of a young offensive line. The scoring suffered, too, as the Herd only averaged 20.8 points a game.

Bowling in 2011? Depends on what happens with the quarterback and offensive line. Brian Anderson is gone, leaving A.J. Graham and Eddie Sullivan as the lone returners with experience.

Temple

What happened: The Owls were bowl eligible at 8-4, but were not chosen to go bowling, thanks in part to two straight losses to close the year to Ohio and Miami (Ohio). Turnovers hurt in the loss to the Bobcats, and the offense just never showed up against the RedHawks. Leading rusher Bernard Pierce was banged up all season, though Matt Brown did a nice job filling in. The Owls also made a quarterback change midway through the season, finishing up with Mike Gerardi because Chester Stewart was too inconsistent.

Bowling in 2011? Depends on who Temple hires to replace Al Golden. There is talent here. Can the new coach continue to build on what Golden did the last two seasons?

Wyoming

What happened:A brutal schedule is what happened. After opening against Southern Utah, Wyoming played eight straight bowl teams, including nonconference games at Texas and home to Boise State. The offense took a step back, ranking No. 116 in total offense and 107 in scoring offense. Despite speculation that he may transfer, quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels will return. The Cowboys also dealt with tragedy early in the year when freshman Ruben Narcisse was killed in a car accident Sept. 6.

Bowling in 2011? It is going to be close. Wyoming has an easier out of conference schedule, but it does play two FCS schools. That means the Cowboys have to get to seven wins. They get Nebraska and TCU at home, but Air Force, Boise State and San Diego State on the road.

Wyoming will be without starting quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels for its big game at No. 5 TCU on Saturday, making a tough challenge even harder.

Carta-Samuels is out with an unspecified injury, the school said Friday. The only information the school would release is that Carta-Samuels had an injury that was diagnosed during the week. It was hoped that he would improve during the week, but he was not cleared to play and did not make the trip.

Senior Dax Crum will start in his place. Crum has started five career games, all in 2008. He has appeared in two games this year against Texas and Boise State.

Carta-Samuels is the leader of the Cowboys offense. He is 71-of-109 for 803 yards with four touchdowns and five interceptions on the season. He had started 14 straight games.

For Boise State, the business of getting back to football begins Saturday at Wyoming. But even then, the Broncos will be judged on more than their performance on the field.

We have seen it already. No. 3 Boise State was off last week after its 33-30 win against Virginia Tech, but might as well have lost for all the hand-wringing that ensued following the Hokies’ loss to James Madison. What Boise State does in its games is no longer good enough.

People will wonder not only whether they did enough to win (i.e. did they win by enough points), but they will look at their opponents to see how they did, too. When you are an outsider playing in a non-AQ conference, hoping to become the first to play for a BCS national championship, the over-scrutiny goes along with your performance.

Boise State coach Chris Petersen has done his best to preach to his team to avoid listening to what everybody else says about his team.

“We just hear so much outside noise, you can never win,” he said. “It just doesn’t matter. We’re past Virginia Tech, and Virginia Tech has got their own season. We’re just worried about Wyoming.”

Boise State should just worry about Wyoming. Though critics cite the remaining Broncos schedule as a bunch of cupcakes, Virginia Tech proved last week that no win is a given.

The Cowboys have played the Broncos tough in their most recent meetings, and especially the last time the two teams met in Laramie in 2006. Wyoming outgained Boise State and had the ball in the fourth quarter with a chance to tie the game before throwing an interception. The Broncos won 17-10 en route to their undefeated season and eventual win in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl.

Wyoming brings a high-octane spread offense into the game with Austyn Carta-Samuels leading the way. Petersen called the Cowboys “extremely” creative on offense. They certainly have that capability, and could try to pick on Jamar Taylor early the way the Hokies did in the opener.

But they are no doubt facing a very tough defense, one that kept the pressure on Tyrod Taylor all night. This game is also in the middle of a tough stretch for the Cowboys, after going on the road to play Texas last week and losing 34-7.

The difficulty of playing back-to-back teams ranked in the Top 5 is not lost on Wyoming coach Dave Christensen, though he refuses to use that as an excuse. Wyoming's last victory against a Top 25 came on Oct. 26, 2002, when the Cowboys defeated No. 22 ranked Air Force 34-26.

On top of the challenge of playing consecutive ranked teams, Wyoming has had to deal with the tragic death of freshman linebacker Ruben Narcisse, killed in a car accident last week.

Wyoming held a memorial service for Narcisse this past Monday. His family attended and spoke to the team.

“We’re in a better place right now than we were a week ago,” Christensen said. “We’re moving forward. We’re not trying to move on, but we’re in a better place now than we were.”

The atmosphere is sure to be intense on Saturday night. The game is sold out, and Boise State comes into town as the second highest ranked team ever to play in Laramie, behind No. 2 Texas last year.

Wyoming wants to harness that excitement into an upset. Boise State must avoid that at all costs. Now the Broncos face the task of playing again after a week off, and perhaps losing some of the momentum they built in the opener.

“Early in the season, you’re trying to get into a rhythm,” Petersen said. “You start to develop and then you have a bye. It is what it is and we just try to make the best of it.”

Houston offensive coordinator Jason Phillips said the team is preparing as if Case Keenum (concussion) will be able to play. If not, Cotton Turner would get the nod.

The TCU-Baylor game should be an emotional one for the former SWC rivals.

BYU hasn't forgotten about its debacle against Florida State last year.

Wyoming quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels has cowboy charisma.

Purdue DE Ryan Kerrigan will be a load for Ball State to handle.

Louisiana Tech is still searching for the right situation at quarterback.

Injuries are a growing concern for Navy. Quarterback Ricky Dobbs hasn't practiced full this week with a sprained ankle, and starting cornerback Emmett Merchant could be out against Louisiana Tech.

UTEP running back Donald Buckram says he will play Saturday. "The way the knee feels today, it's a lot better than it was Saturday," he told the El Paso Times.

Injuries are piling up at North Texas, too.

Other conference links:

ACC

Big 12

Big East

Big Ten

Wyoming announced Tuesday that it was extending the contract of coach Dave Christensen an extra season so that his contract ends on Dec. 31, 2013.

That was a smart move by Wyoming.

In just one season, Christensen transformed the mentality of the team and the fanbase. He became the first Wyoming head coach to win a bowl game in his first season and just the second Wyoming head coach to make a bowl game in his first year (Paul Roach, 1987).

“In his first year, coach Christensen did an outstanding job of returning Wyoming football to a competitive position in the Mountain West Conference,” Wyoming athletic director Tom Burman said in a statement. “He led our football program to a winning record and a New Mexico Bowl victory, and it was evident by the large number of fans at the bowl game that he has reenergized our fan base.

“We are excited about the future of Cowboy football and the leadership that coach Christensen has provided, and we are pleased to announce this extension of his contract.”

Make no mistake that Christensen’s 7-6 season with Cowboys did not go unnoticed nationally and one more bowl berth might make him a candidate for some of the open positions available after next season. But you never know how that second year might go (see Steve Fairchild at Colorado State), which is why Wyoming’s decision to add a year to Christensen’s contract is good all around. It gives both Christensen and the school some security depending on next year’s outcome and the extension shows the type of commitment Christensen can sell while recruiting.

Christensen does have high hopes for the 2010 season. With Austyn Carta-Samuels, the reigning Mountain West Freshman of the Year, returning, and several junior college transfers to help on both sides of the ball, Christensen expects more from his second season.

“We lost some pretty good players and some leadership in that senior class, but it’s exciting to know that we’ve got so many young guys coming back that can play and contribute, and then we’ll add another class to that," Christensen said in an earlier interview with ESPN.com. "We’re still building. We haven’t arrived by any means. We’ve laid a foundation and now we’ve got to continue to build upon that foundation.”

For Wyoming coach Dave Christensen, the difference in this year’s spring football and last year's is like night and day.

When Christensen took over for Joe Glenn last year, he had to instill a different work ethic and level of discipline that the players weren’t used to. He lost some players who didn’t want to do the work and some whose bodies couldn’t handle the work, but he came out of the spring with a team that was better equipped to handle the rigors of the Cowboys’ brutal schedule.

While Christensen said he felt like the team bought in early, it wasn’t until after its New Mexico Bowl win against Fresno State that he saw the attitudes change. Players started to believe in Christensen and his staff because they’d seen tangible results. So, this offseason, the Cowboys have been dedicated to winter workouts and coming into spring practice, which started last Saturday, as a team ready to experience success on a consistent basis.

“The work ethic has been unbelievable,” Christensen said. “Our kids are working extremely hard and were much more athletic and much faster and a more explosive football team than we were a year ago. They’ve been through it, they know that it works and now they’ve bought in and they’re giving great effort.”

One of the biggest advantages this year will be an increase in talent and a steady quarterback situation. Last year, three quarterbacks duked it out in spring football and none of them ended up being the starter. Freshman Austyn Carta-Samuels took the reins late in nonconference play and led the Cowboys to their first bowl game and winning record since 2004.

Carta-Samuels earned Mountain West Conference Freshman of the Year honors after throwing for 1,953 yards, 10 touchdowns and just five interceptions.

“I’d say he exceeded my expectations,” Christensen said of Carta-Samuels. “He did a nice job of directing the team, made great decisions with the football and being a playmaker with his feet to get out of trouble. Yeah, I’d probably say he did exceed my expectations.”

Carta-Samuels will have some extra help this year with junior college wide receivers Mazi Ogbonna and DeJay Lester and freshman running back Nehemie Kankolongo joining the mix.

The addition of some better playmakers means that Wyoming can actually expand its offense and not rely on Carta-Samuels so much. Christensen was not able to put his entire playbook in place as he was tailoring it to his personnel. But this year, Christensen is confident that he’ll have the people around Carta-Samuels to make the Cowboys even better than they were a year ago.

“It’s going to make it a little easier for [Carta-Samuels] not having to make all the plays,” Christensen said. “To have offensive success, you have to have a number of playmakers to get the ball in their hands. We can’t just rely on one guy. We need five or six guys to make that happen and I think we'll have those guys.”

It’s March (I can’t believe it’s already March) and that means spring football is going to start across the non-AQ conferences. Air Force, Army and San Diego State are already in full swing, but five other teams will begin their spring practices this week.

Here’s a look at the teams and their biggest issue:

Florida International, March 3

Biggest issue: The Golden Panthers are looking for a starting quarterback after Paul McCall's graduation. Mississippi State transfer Wesley Carroll will be the top candidate.

Louisiana-Lafayette, March 3

Biggest issue: The Ragin’ Cajuns had one of the top running games in the nation in 2008, but slipped to 71st in 2009. Sophomore Yobes Walker will need to prove he is the guy to pull the running game out of its funk.

Southern Miss, March 3

Biggest issue: The Golden Eagles missed six extra points last year, including one against East Carolina that cost them a trip to the Conference USA title game. Consistency in the kicking game will be a top priority.

Nevada, March 5

Biggest issue: Defense has been an Achilles’ heel for the Wolf Pack, but new defensive coordinator Andy Buh will work yp change that this spring.

Wyoming, March 6

Biggest issue: As funny as it sounds, the Cowboys will have to battle complacency after going to a bowl game in coach Dave Christensen’s first season. Quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels will have a couple of new playmakers and the defense will move from a 3-4 to a 4-3.

Wyoming’s 35-28 overtime win against Fresno State in the New Mexico Bowl last month won’t affect the Cowboys’ recruiting too much come signing day next week; the Cowboys’ class was almost filled by the time the come-from-behind win was completed.

But the effects of that monumental bowl win, Wyoming’s first since 2004, have resonated through the staff and the current players. The win was validation for all the yelling and running and hard work each player put in when coach Dave Christensen took the job more than 13 months ago. Christensen’s style was in stark contrast to his predecessor Joe Glenn and not everyone responded well. Both those who did were rewarded with a seven-win season and the understanding of what it takes to play on a winning football team.

“It really solidifies what we’re trying to do,” Christensen said. “I don’t have to sell on my philosophy and my vision because now it's there. And now [the current players] are going to sell it because they got through it and they know how it works.”

Prior to Christensen’s arrival, the Cowboys hadn’t had a winning season since 2004 and they were on the cusp of another losing season had it not been for some late-season heroics against San Diego State and Colorado State that earned them a bowl berth. In the New Mexico Bowl, the Cowboys were trailing 28-17 in the fourth quarter and scored 18 unanswered points for the overtime win.

In all three games, freshman quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels was the catalyst. Christensen named him the starter against UNLV late in September and the team responded immediately. Carta-Samuels was named Mountain West Conference Freshman of the Year and is the main reason why Wyoming is so hopeful that its winning season will not be a fluke.

“We lost some pretty good players and some leadership in that senior class, but it’s exciting to know that we’ve got so many young guys coming back that can play and contribute, and then we’ll add another class to that," Christensen said. "We’re still building. We haven’t arrived by any means. We’ve laid a foundation and now we’ve got to continue to build upon that foundation.”

Christensen said the bowl win was a nice building block, but that establishing a pattern of consistency will really be the difference in the program. Glenn also led the team to a bowl win in his first season, but was not able to replicate the success. Christensen said he’s working on making sure that’s not the case with his regime.

“We need to do everything we did the first 12 months that we were here,” Christensen said. “We need to make sure there’s no complacency in any area of the program whether it be support staff, coaching staff, players, whatever. You can’t get complacent. You’ve got to work as hard as the first 12 months every month for the rest of the time we’re here. That’s the only way you can be consistent.”

Once that consistency starts showing, Christensen is confident better recruits are going to flock to Laramie. Currently, Wyoming has 25 commitments and most of those players are on the defensive side of the ball where the Cowboys needed the most help.

With better recruits means a better program and the possibility of bringing Wyoming back to its heyday of the late 1980s and early 90s.

“If you go to a bowl game and then you go to another bowl game, all of a sudden you have stability in your program,” Christensen said. “The big this is to be able to sustain a winning program and go every year to a bowl game. That’s when it comes into recruiting. When recruits know that you’ve gone two, three years in a row, then they know that your program is pretty solid.”

The New Mexico Bowl turned out to be a great start to the bowl season with a double overtime affair. Wyoming came away with the upset win over Fresno State to end coach Dave Christensen's first season with a winning record.

Player of the game: Wyoming quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels put the Cowboys on his back and carried them to victory. On both the game-tying and game-winning drives, Carta-Samuels made several plays to keep his team in the game.

What this means: This was a huge win for a Wyoming team that was picked to finish last in the Mountain West. Christensen did more with less than any coach in the country and now he has a huge win to build on for his young team heading into next season.

Second guessing: In the first overtime, Fresno State opted to go for the touchdown on fourth-and-1 rather than take the points with a chipshot field goal.

Best call: Wyoming converted three fourth downs on the final drive of regulation to put itself in position for Ian Watts to kick the game-tying field goal.

Turning point: With 8:20 remaining in the fourth quarter, Wyoming defensive lineman Mitch Unrein stripped Fresno State running back Ryan Mathews to give the Cowboys the ball and ultimately send them on the game-tying drive.

Fresno State (8-4)

1. Run the ball: Ryan Mathews is the best running back in the country and has been the workhorse for the Bulldogs all season. This might be his final game as he weighs his decision to leave school early for the NFL. The Cowboys' rushing defense is one of the worst in the country, allowing 170.50 yards per game.

2. Contain Carta-Samuels: Wyoming freshman quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels is the most dangerous offensive player for the Cowboys. He has the ability to make plays with his feet, keep plays alive and create something out of nothing. Fresno State needs to keep him in the pocket to limit his effectiveness.

3. Make it a shootout: Fresno State can score and if it can score consistently, it can run away with this game. Wyoming doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Bulldogs. So, if Fresno State puts Wyoming in a hole early, it should come away with a win.

Wyoming (6-6)

1. Limit the big plays: Wyoming knows Mathews is going to get his yards, but limiting the big plays will help keep him out of the end zone and keep the Bulldogs off the scoreboard. Wyoming needs to be realistic, but have a bend but don’t break attitude.

2. Limit turnover: One of the assets that have made Wyoming so successful this season has been limiting the turnovers. But the Cowboys also have to force turnovers. That shouldn't be too hard against a Fresno State team that already has lost 23 turnovers this season.

3. Help Austyn: The best games for Wyoming this season have been those where the rest of the team has picked up the play around quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels. Samuels can create, but having a few players complement him will limit Fresno State's ability to spy him and lock him in the pocket.

Wyoming coach Dave Christensen vowed to turn the Cowboys around, but few thought it would come so quickly. The Cowboys are playing in their first bowl game since 2004 and were one of the rare success stories among the nonautomatic qualifying schools with new head coaches. But winning the bowl against a Fresno State team that has won at least eight games for the seventh time this decade will be a difficult task.

WHO TO WATCH: Ryan Mathews, RB, Fresno State

Mathews, a junior, has been the Bulldogs' greatest offensive weapon this season and this might be his last game in a Fresno State uniform if he leaves for the NFL. Mathews led the nation in rushing with 151.27 yards per game. He rushed for more than 100 yards in 10 games this season. The only two games he didn’t were the ones he missed due to a concussion.

WHAT TO WATCH: The play of Wyoming QB Austyn Carta-Samuels

Carta-Samuels is one of the best young talents this year and a treat to watch because of his playmaking ability. The Mountain West’s Freshman of the Year doesn’t have a lot of help around him, but has the ability to make plays with both his arm and feet and can create plays out of nothing. He’s young, but he’s the reason the Cowboys are in a bowl game.

WHY TO WATCH: Fresno State could be Wyoming’s future

Fresno State has been a model of consistency most of this decade and is the type of team Wyoming would like to emulate under new head coach Dave Christensen. This bowl game has been a long time coming for Cowboys fans. In Christensen’s first season, he’s turned the program around and with talented recruits coming in, this might be a sign of the success the Cowboys could have on a consistent basis.

PREDICTION: Fresno State has been here before -- literally. The Bulldogs lost this bowl a year ago. But with Mathews going against Wyoming’s weak rushing defense, it’s going to be tough for the Cowboys to keep up. Wyoming’s best bet is to limit the big plays, but Mathews has played well even against some of the best defenses. The Bulldogs win this one 30-14.

Back in May, I broke down the new non-AQ coaches, dissected what each of them brought to the table, the challenges they faced and my projected outlook for the season.

Well, today I’m going to revisit those predictions and see how accurate (far off) I was from what actually happened. I think my powers of prediction have been discussed at length around here, so these revelations should come as no surprise to anyone. Actually, I did surprisingly well outside of New Mexico. But really, who could have predicted that?

I’m starting with the Mountain West’s new coaches this week and I’ll hit the Mid-American Conference and the rest of the new hires as the week progresses.

NEW MEXICO

Coach: Mike Locksley

Previous school and position: Illinois, offensive coordinator

Head coaching experience: None

New Mexico’s 2008 record: 4-8, 2-6 MWC

Returning players: Offense 8, defense 3

Likelihood of pulling off a winning season (circa May 2009): The Lobos have a tough non-conference schedule, probably tougher than Locksley would have liked in his first season. The Lobos might be able to play with Texas A&M considering no one knows what to expect out of the Aggies, but they’re going to have a tough time with the offensive firepower of Tulsa and Texas Tech to end the non-conference. The Lobos also have games against Air Force and New Mexico State before they get into conference play full time. The Lobos could easily start the season 2-3 and could nab wins at Wyoming, against UNLV and at San Diego State to be 5-3 heading into the meat of the conference schedule. And that’s where it will get dicey. Luckily for New Mexico, it gets Utah, BYU and TCU toward the end of the season, which will give the Lobos more time to get their new system down. Still, the only winnable game left in their final stretch might be Colorado State for that elusive sixth win.

My prediction: 6-6, 4-4 MWC

What really happened: Mike Locksley’s first season at New Mexico might have been the most disastrous first season of any head coach -- ever -- and it had little to do with what happened on the field. Yes, the Lobos finished 1-11, but it was the off-field incidents that really defined Locksley’s rookie year. From an issue with a former secretary to an alleged physical dispute with a former coach, Locksley put the New Mexico program in the spotlight for all the wrong reasons. Whether the off-field conflict perpetuated the on-field disappointment is unknown, but what we do know is that New Mexico had its worst season since going winless in 1987. The good news is the Lobos can only go up from here.

The end result: 1-11, 1-8 MWC

SAN DIEGO STATE

Coach: Brady Hoke

Previous school and position: Ball State, head coach

Head coaching experience: Ball State, 2003-08

San Diego State’s 2008 record: 2-10, 1-7 MWC

Returning players: Offense 9, defense 6

Likelihood of pulling off a winning season (circa May 2009): Hoke faces the toughest turnaround in the conference. His defense, which allowed 460.75 yards and 37.17 points per game last season, is learning defensive coordinator Rocky Long’s new high-pressure system and that is going to take some time to perfect. Quarterback Ryan Lindley was essentially all of the Aztecs offense last year. The running game was one of the worst in the country and was often non-existent. Offensive coordinator Al Borges said he wanted to balance the offense, which again, is going to take some time to find the right players to run and compete with some of the best defenses in the country.

I will say this, San Diego State will be competitive. That’s one trait that Hoke brings to his team. It might not have the talent to win consistently in the Mountain West right away, but it will play hard and give some teams a run for their money. That might even translate into some upset wins over some teams that are taking the Aztecs lightly.

San Diego State does have a favorable schedule with games against Southern Utah, Idaho and New Mexico State before getting into the heart of conference play. If the team progresses during fall camp, it could start the season 3-2. But then things get tough. The Aztecs will have trouble in their next four against BYU, Colorado State, New Mexico and TCU, though I’m not sure what to expect out of CSU considering they don’t have a steady quarterback yet. Wyoming at home is a maybe, though not likely, and the Aztecs could split their final two games against Utah and UNLV, though that UNLV game is in Las Vegas.

My prediction: 4-8, 1-7 MWC

What really happened: Had New Mexico not struggled so much, my prediction probably would have come to fruition in terms of the conference record. However, I was spot-on with what I thought Hoke would be able to do with his current roster and a few new faces. The Aztecs were competitive and played better as the season progressed. The running game continued to be one of the worst in the country and will need to be addressed during recruiting this offseason. Quarterback Ryan Lindley was a rock, ranking third in the conference in total offense. The Aztecs defense, which was learning Long's 3-3-5 system, did OK in its first season. San Diego State will only get better as Hoke is able to bring in players that fit his style of play and his defensive system.

The end result: 4-8, 2-6 MWC

WYOMING COWBOYS

Coach: Dave Christensen

Previous school and position: Missouri, offensive coordinator

Head coaching experience: None

Wyoming’s 2008 record: 4-8, 1-7 MWC

Returning players: Offense 7, defense 8

Likelihood of pulling off a winning season (circa May 2009): Christensen’s hard-nosed style wasn’t received well by a few of last year players and he’s faced some defections. He finished camp with about 53 healthy players, so he’ll have to find bodies just to give his first-teamers a breather in the fall. He brings in one of the best recruiting classes in Wyoming history, which might create a little bit of as rift between the players that are already there since the recruits were hand-picked to play in Christensen’s system. Wyoming also has to settle on a quarterback. Senior Karsten Sween is the guy heading into fall camp, but recruits Austyn Carta-Samuels and Robert Benjamin are definitely going to be in the mix come fall.

Wyoming’s non-conference schedule is a lot tougher than Christensen probably would have liked it to be in his first season, especially with a team that’s more or less starting from scratch. Weber State should be a win to open the year, but then back-to-back Big 12 games against Texas and Colorado are going to be tough. The Cowboys have a conference game against UNLV, which is winnable, before traveling to play a tough Florida Atlantic squad. This could easily be a 2-3 start.

The Cowboys then play New Mexico, which will be interesting since Locksley and Christensen are familiar with each other from their days at rivals Illinois and Missouri and those games were offensive shootouts. The Cowboys have back-to-back road games at Air Force and Utah before hosting BYU. That’s a really tough three-game stretch. The Cowboys can win at San Diego State before hosting TCU, which always an interesting game in Laramie, Wyo., and then the rivalry game against Colorado State to end the season.

How quickly Wyoming can learn its new system and how healthy the team can get, especially on defense, will determine whether the Cowboys are a bowl team because the potential to be one is there.

My prediction: 5-7, 4-4 MWC

What really happened: While Wyoming finished about where I thought it would, Christensen deserves major props for making the Cowboys a bowl team with what was essentially smoke and mirrors. Making true freshman quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels the starter early in the year was what pointed the Cowboys in the right direction. Although they were smacked by the best teams in the conference, they still managed to defeat the teams they should have beaten, including Colorado State at the end of the year to become bowl eligible. Carta-Samuels was named the Mountain West’s Freshman of the Year, and he’s the reason the Cowboys are one of just two non-AQ teams with a new head coach participating in the postseason.

The end result: 6-6, 4-4 MWC

Austyn Carta-Samuels didn’t get to see TCU’s 55-28 win over Utah live, but he was able to catch the replay the next day.

As Wyoming’s starting quarterback settled in and started to watch the game, he realized he had made a big mistake.

The announcers were lauding TCU’s defensive play. They were replaying defensive hits on Utah freshman quarterback Jordan Wynn often with a comment about how good the defense is or how much Wynn must have felt the hit.

All of this didn't exactly sit well with Carta-Samuels.

“To be honest, I don’t like to watch live games with commentary just because that will get you psyched out,” Carta-Samuels said. “They’re the No. 4 team in the country and I think they’re one of the top-5 defenses in the country and to hear those announcers go, ‘Oh my, look at this and look at this.’ It scares you a little bit playing quarterback.”

Carta-Samuels, Wyoming freshman starter, will get to experience TCU firsthand in Laramie, Wyo., this weekend. He's already played the other top teams in the conference -- BYU, Utah and Air Force -- but he said after watching TCU on film, there’s not a team he’s faced that compares to the Frogs' team speed.

“It’s an exciting opportunity ahead,” Carta-Samuels said. “Personally, I think TCU is faster than all of those [Mountain West] defenses. I don’t know whether they’re at the same level I think they are, but it will definitely be [an] awesome chance for me to get my feet wet in a situation like this.”

Carta-Samuels and the Wyoming offense didn’t fare well against the other top teams in the conference. They were outscored 84-10 and were shut out against Air Force and BYU. Those three games game produced the three lowest offensive outputs for the Cowboys this season.

And TCU has beaten all three.

Carta-Samuels said having the experience of playing those games prior to facing TCU should help him understand what works and what doesn’t. He said the fact that the offense wasn’t able to do much in those games has actually given him patience, something he knows he’ll need against a TCU team that allows just 12.9 points per game and 244.90 yards per game.

“What I’ve been able to do better after playing those three games is cope with my frustration a lot because I get frustrated when we’re not moving the football,” Carta-Samuels said. “I maybe let it affect me a little bit in the past. I know how that feels, coach knows how I am when that happens and so this Saturday, if things don’t start off the right way, we know how to deal with that. I can learn from the mistakes that I made in those other games and take it into this one.”

Wyoming coach Dave Christensen said his faith in Carta-Samuels never wavered despite the lack of offensive production against those opponents. He chalked them up as learning experiences that will only help Carta-Samuels as he gets older.

Wyoming saw some of that experience pay off last weekend as Carta-Samuels led the Cowboys back from a 21-point deficit in the fourth quarter against San Diego State, which put Wyoming one game away from bowl eligibility with two games to play.

“He’s done a nice job and he’s tried to make a lot of things happen and last Saturday a bunch of other guys started making plays,” Christensen said. “He improves daily and weekly and the more experience he gets the better he’s going to be.”

Carta-Samuels knows this weekend’s game will be an uphill battle, but he’s eager for the opportunity. After playing four top teams already this season, including Texas, Carta-Samuels said he feels he’s ready to face this challenge.

“They’re unbelievable. They’re a special team, no doubt,” Carta-Samuels said. “You have an opportunity to beat the No. 4 team in the country, to play with the No. 4 team in the country. Jerry Hughes on the defensive line. Everyone’s probably predicting him to sack me eight times on Saturday, so you have an opportunity to get away from that and beat that. It’s just a lot of good things ahead of us. And while I’m not accepting a loss at all by any means, I expect to win, but you lose to the No. 4 team in the country and that’s what everyone expected.”