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If college football were like "Lost," then Notre Dame is the cork in the island that keeps chaos from taking over.

The Irish could very well hold the key to the entire expansion puzzle, as Pete Thamel writes in the New York Times. If Notre Dame decided to join the Big Ten, that might cap the expansion for that league. The Irish would rather be the 12th member of a bigger Big Ten then one of 16 members. If that were to happen, then Nebraska wouldn't have the Big Ten as an option for leaving the Big 12, so perhaps the Big 12 stays intact and avoids crumbling under a Pac-10 merger.

Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick rebuffed reports that he was in negotiations with the Big Ten.

“First of all, there haven’t been any sort of deliberations,” he told the Times. “Internally, we talk about this stuff all the time. We have not entered into discussions with anyone. The only thing we’ve done externally is try and work as closely as we can with the Big East and try and help them.

Swarbrick said in March that the Irish might be forced to join a league if "seismic" changes to the college landscape forced their hand. Well, what could be more seismic than a 16-team Big Ten and Pac-10 and possibly a dismantled Big 12 and Big East? Then Notre Dame wouldn't have a home for its non-football sports, and it could potentially be left out in the cold as the era of superconferences begin.

It's an extremely tricky decision for the Golden Domers, who cherish their independent status and view it as a huge part of their identity (here is a good take on what independence means to the average Notre Dame fan). Swarbrick told the Times that he thinks the expansion scenarios will become clear by the start of fall practice in August.

The Irish may have to decide before then if they want to be the cork in the island, or if they want to risk being deserted in a new landscape.

If the Big Ten chooses to expand, it will look at factors like athletic success, TV market and fan following. But trust me, academic reputation will play a major role in this decision.

That's why I can eliminate several of your expansion suggestions right off the bat. The Big Ten prides itself on its academic reputation, and it's not going to compromise just for more money.

There are certainly several ways to rank institutions, but US News & World Report's Best Colleges series is arguably the most respected source on this subject. Here's a breakdown of how the US News rankings work.

First, let's examine where the current Big Ten schools come in in the 2010 edition of national universities rankings:

No. 12: Northwestern
No. 27: Michigan
No. 39 (tie): Illinois
No. 39 (tie): Wisconsin
No. 47 (tie): Penn State
No. 53 (tie): Ohio State
No. 61 (tie): Purdue
No. 61 (tie): Minnesota
No. 71 (tie): Indiana
No. 71 (tie): Michigan State
No. 71 (tie): Iowa

As you can see, having all 11 members ranked among the nation's top 75 national universities is pretty impressive.

Now let's look at where some potential expansion candidates rank. I'm casting a very wide net here on purpose.

No. 20: Notre Dame
No. 34: Boston College
No. 47 (tie): Texas
No. 56 (tie): Pittsburgh
No. 58 (tie): Syracuse
No. 66 (tie): Rutgers
No. 88 (tie): Iowa State
No. 96 (tie): Kansas
No. 96 (tie): Nebraska
No. 102 (tie): Missouri
No. 126 (tie): Utah
No. 128: Kentucky

Schools ranked below 128 are classified in Tier 3 and Tier 4.

Tier 3: Cincinnati
Tier 3: West Virginia

Don't hold your breath on Cincinnati or West Virginia becoming the 12th team. Missouri, my top choice, ranks a little low as well. The three top Big East candidates -- Rutgers, Syracuse and Pitt -- all certainly would satisfy the Big Ten's academic demands. As for Notre Dame? We all know ND is the obvious choice, but the school likely will never relinquish its independent status until it absolutely has to.

For the first time in a decade, the Big Ten will actively explore the possibility of expansion.

In a statement released Tuesday afternoon, the Big Ten's Council of Presidents/Chancellors (COP/C) said the "timing is right" for the league to explore its options for adding a 12th team. Following a meeting last week at the Big Ten offices, the COP/C asked league commissioner Jim Delany to begin the evaluation process, expected to take 12 to 18 months.

What does this all mean? The Big Ten might expand, or it might not. But the league will explore all of its options.

There's certainly more support for expansion around the league, from powerful voices like Penn State head football coach Joe Paterno and Wisconsin athletic director Barry Alvarez. The league certainly could benefit from a 12th team in football, which would allow for two divisions and a league championship game played the same day as those from the SEC, Big 12 and ACC.

But the real reason why this is happening now is the league can truly focus on expansion. The Big Ten Network, which dominated the league's time and energy the last few years, is in place and operating successfully. As a league source told me, "Sometimes you're forced in to fighting two wars at the same time, but if you can afford to, you space it [out]."

There are three phases to the expansion process:

1. Evaluating all the possibilities for expansion
2. Identifying the options preferred internally
3. Making contact to the schools to gauge mutual interest

The Big Ten said it will contact commissioners of affected conferences before making any overtures to an institution.

OK, now let's get to the good part.

Who are the candidates?

Contrary to popular belief, a candidate doesn't need to be a member of the Association of American Universities or be located within the Big Ten footprint or in a bordering state. Though the schools must fit what the Big Ten looks for, "there’s no prescription that you have to have 30,000 undergrads or you have to be a major research institution," a source tells me.

This opens up the pool, and Alvarez said last week that the league will explore schools "from all over the country." Still, I can't see the Big Ten looking too far outside the Midwest or the New York market.

Many of you have brought up Notre Dame. While the school makes a ton of sense for the Big Ten, it's just not happening, folks. Notre Dame isn't about to give up its TV contract, and the Big Ten isn't going to make a third attempt at adding the Fighting Irish.

Here's my realistic list of Big Ten expansion possibilities:

• Missouri
• Syracuse
• Pittsburgh
• Nebraska
• Rutgers

And here's the full statement from the league's Council of Presidents/Chancellors:

Penn State joined the Big Ten Conference in June of 1990 and its addition has been an unqualified success. In 1993, 1998 and 2003 the COP/C, in coordination with the commissioner’s office, reviewed the issue of conference structure and expansion. The COP/C believes that the timing is right for the conference to once again conduct a thorough evaluation of options for conference structure and expansion. As a result, the commissioner was asked to provide recommendations for consideration by the COP/C over the next 12 to 18 months.

The COP/C understands that speculation about the conference is ongoing. The COP/C has asked the conference office to obtain, to the extent possible, information necessary to construct preliminary options and recommendations without engaging in formal discussions with leadership of other institutions. If and when such discussions become necessary the COP/C has instructed Commissioner James E. Delany to inform the Chair of the COP/C, Michigan State University President Lou Anna K. Simon, and then to notify the commissioner of the affected conference(s). Only after these notices have occurred will the Big Ten engage in formal expansion discussions with other institutions. This process will allow the Big Ten to evaluate options, while respecting peer conferences and their member institutions. No action by the COP/C is expected in the near term. No interim statements will be made by the Big Ten or the COP/C until after the COP/C receives the commissioner’s recommendations and the COP/C determines next steps, if any, in this area.