NCF Nation: bowl look 112413

ACC bowl projections: Week 13

November, 24, 2013
Ten teams are now bowl eligible, tying the ACC record. Here's where we think they will end up:

VIZIO BCS National Championship Game, Jan. 6: Florida State
Discover Orange Bowl, Jan. 3: Clemson
Chick-fil-A Bowl, Dec. 31: Miami
Russell Athletic Bowl, Dec. 28: Duke
Hyundai Sun Bowl, Dec. 31: Virginia Tech
Belk Bowl, Dec. 28: North Carolina
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl, Dec. 30: Georgia Tech
AdvoCare V100 Bowl, Dec. 31: Boston College
Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman, Dec. 27: Maryland

* Pitt at-large
With just one week to go before championship week, we know exactly which Big Ten teams are going bowling and which ones are staying home. And we've got some big changes in our bowl projections.

For the first time, we are now projecting the conference to get an at-large bid. Our thinking goes like this: Oregon's loss to Arizona (thanks, RichRod!) means the Pac-12 could be limited to one bid. If Clemson loses to South Carolina this week, the Tigers might not get an at-large bid coming off a loss. And Orange Bowl officials, who are desperate to fill seats after some undesirable matchups in recent years, would rather bet on a Big Ten team and its huge fan base than on Baylor, a program that has trouble filling its own stadium.

So which Big Ten team do we see heading to Miami? Right now, it's Wisconsin. We think the Badgers, who should end the year on a seven-game winning streak, get the slight nod over Michigan State, which will be an underdog to Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. But check back with us on that in a week.

That keeps Michigan State in the Capital One Bowl for now. We have a potential 9-3 Nebraska going back to Florida in the Outback Bowl, while Iowa -- which could finish two wins behind the Huskers unless it pulls off the victory in Lincoln on Friday -- heads back to familiar territory in Phoenix.

The Gator Bowl would choose between Minnesota and Michigan, two squads likely ending the season on losing streaks. Although Gator Bowl officials have been known for going with the big name (see: a 6-6 Ohio State team in 2011), there's way more enthusiasm around Minnesota than Michigan right now. Minnesota athletic director Norwood Teague has some selling to do, but we think he'll get the job done and get the Gophers to Jacksonville. That puts Michigan in the Texas Bowl.

The full projections:

Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO, Jan. 1: Ohio State
Discover Orange Bowl, Jan. 3: Wisconsin
Capital One Bowl, Jan. 1: Michigan State
Outback Bowl, Jan. 1: Nebraska
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, Dec. 28: Iowa Gator Bowl, Jan. 1: Minnesota
Texas Bowl, Dec. 27: Michigan
Heart of Dallas Bowl, Jan. 1: Not filled
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl, Dec. 26: Not filled

Big 12 bowl projections: Week 13

November, 24, 2013
Everything has come full circle. Oklahoma State's blowout win over Baylor has put the Cowboys back into their preseason spot as the Big 12 favorite. The Cowboys can win their second title in three seasons with a victory over Oklahoma on Dec. 7. Baylor faces an uphill battle to earn the Big 12 a second BCS bowl berth with Fresno State positioning itself for a spot and quality candidates in the Big Ten.

Here are our Week 13 bowl projections for the Big 12:

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 1): Oklahoma State vs. BCS at-large
AT&T Cotton Bowl (Jan. 3): Baylor vs. SEC No. 3/4
Valero Alamo Bowl (Dec. 30): Oklahoma vs. Pac-12 No. 2
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl (Dec. 28): Texas vs. Big Ten No. 4/5
National University Holiday Bowl (Dec. 30): Kansas State vs. Pac-12 No. 3
Texas Bowl (Dec. 27): Texas Tech vs. Big Ten No. 6
New Era Pinstripe Bowl (Dec. 28): None available vs. American No. 4
Heart of Dallas Bowl (Jan. 1): None available vs. Big Ten No. 7

Pac-12 bowl projections: Week 13

November, 24, 2013
Another week, another shakeup. And the Pac-12 now has nine bowl-eligible teams -- welcome Washington State.

We continue to believe all nine will get bowl berths, even with two more teams than the Pac-12 has bowl contracts.

Some of you have noticed inconsistency with these Sunday evening projections and then Kevin's and my predictions on Thursday. It's pretty simple. Our thinking of the impending week's matchups often changes by Thursday when we do predictions. We also might find out that, say, Utah has lost its starting QB for the season, so we both pick the Cougars to beat the Utes, even though we didn't project the Cougs to earn bowl eligibility the previous Sunday.

So obviously, predictions are part of this. And those might change during the week. We certainly feel more informed on Thursday than today.

We have Stanford beating Arizona State in the Pac-12 championship game, though we are given a long pause by the fact that Arizona State will host the Pac-12 title game if it beats Arizona on Saturday.

We then have the Valero Alamo Bowl going with the Oregon brand over the Sun Devils.

Next, we project a UCLA win over USC, but I'm not sure that will change the bowl pecking order. The Hyundai Sun Bowl probably doesn't want a repeat visit from USC, though the Ed Orgeron story -- with a victory over the Bruins -- might be hard to resist.

That's also our thinking for Washington State going to the Gildan New Mexico Bowl. Arizona went there last season, and the Cougars beat the Wildcats. And the Cougs will be enthusiastic about getting invited, much more so than other Pac-12 possibilities.

As for the Wildcats and Oregon State, they both obviously could increase their stock by winning rivalry games this weekend. The Wildcats seem almost certain to get, at least, an at-large berth because RB Ka'Deem Carey is certain to be a two-time first-team All-American.

Rose Bowl Game presented by Vizio (Jan. 1, 2014): Stanford vs. Big Ten
Valero Alamo Bowl (Dec. 30): Oregon vs. Big 12
National University Holiday Bowl (Dec. 30): Arizona State vs. Big 12
Hyundai Sun Bowl (Dec. 31): UCLA vs. ACC
Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl (Dec. 21): USC vs. MWC
Fight Hunger Bowl (Dec. 27): Washington vs. BYU
Gildan New Mexico Bowl (Dec. 21): Washington State vs. MWC
Heart of Dallas Bowl (Jan. 1, 2014): Arizona vs. Conference USA
Little Caesars (Dec. 26): Oregon State vs. American

SEC bowl projections: Week 13

November, 24, 2013
The drill at the top is still the same. Alabama to the BCS title game, Auburn likely to the Sugar Bowl. The chances of Auburn getting passed by Texas A&M for the Sugar Bowl just went out the window with the Aggies falling to LSU and picking up their third loss as a result (Auburn can not finish with more than two losses now).

So given that, where does that leave Missouri? The Tigers can clinch an SEC championship game berth with a win over Texas A&M, a loss means South Carolina goes. Either way, if Bama finishes its job and gets to the title game, Missouri will have a second loss, meaning South Carolina could jump the Tigers and be the first non-BCS bowl pick to the Capital One Bowl.

The next question is, who does the Cotton Bowl take? It has first preference from the West Division -- does it take LSU or Texas A&M, who both have three losses. Though the Tigers beat A&M head-to-head, I'm betting the Aggies still get chosen because of the draw of Johnny Manziel.

That would send LSU to either the Outback or the Chick-Fil-A bowls but Missouri, if it gets to the SEC championship game and is passed by South Carolina for the Capital One Bowl, would be next on the list.

Tennessee's bowl eligibility is out the window, so Mississippi State is back in the postseason picture. But the Bulldogs need a win in the Egg Bowl to clinch bowl eligibility. Ole Miss' loss puts the Rebels down a spot and lets Georgia move up a spot to the Gator Bowl. And Vanderbilt continued its winning ways and looks poised for a Liberty Bowl berth.

VIZIO BCS National Championship Game, Jan. 6: Alabama
Allstate Sugar Bowl, Jan. 2: Auburn
Capital One Bowl, Jan. 1: South Carolina
AT&T Cotton Bowl, Jan. 3: Texas A&M
Outback Bowl, Jan. 1: Missouri
Chick-fil-A Bowl, Dec. 31: LSU Gator Bowl, Jan. 1: Georgia
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl, Dec. 30: Ole Miss
AutoZone Liberty Bowl, Dec. 31: Vanderbilt
BBVA Compass Bowl, Jan. 4: Mississippi State