College Football Nation: Bowl-look-112810
The Big Ten's big three all won Saturday, so the projected selection order doesn't change.
Is it fair to Michigan State? Absolutely not. But the bowl system never claimed to be fair. The Spartans have a strong case for BCS selection based on what happened between the lines, but these decisions typically are based on outside factors. Maybe the big bowls surprise us this year, but Michigan State almost certainly will be on the outside looking in.
Saturday wasn't good for the Big Ten's other bowl eligible teams, aside from Illinois, which didn't play. Northwestern and Michigan both ended the regular season with back-to-back blowout losses, while Iowa ended on a three-game slide. While Penn State showed more fire in its game against Michigan State, the Lions clearly aren't an elite squad this year.
The most interesting decision rests with the Outback Bowl, which likely will decide between Penn State and Iowa.
Illinois' regular-season finale on Friday at Fresno State could impact things, although I don't think it will.
My projections are exactly the same as they were a week ago:
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. BCS team
Sugar or Orange Bowl: Ohio State vs. BCS team
Capital One Bowl: Michigan State vs. SEC team
Outback Bowl: Penn State vs. SEC team
Gator Bowl: Iowa vs. SEC team
Insight Bowl: Michigan vs. Big 12 team
Texas Bowl: Illinois vs. Big 12 team
TicketCity Bowl: Northwestern vs. Big 12 team
The Big Ten won't fill its slot in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl. Purdue, Indiana and Minnesota aren't bowl eligible.
Is it fair to Michigan State? Absolutely not. But the bowl system never claimed to be fair. The Spartans have a strong case for BCS selection based on what happened between the lines, but these decisions typically are based on outside factors. Maybe the big bowls surprise us this year, but Michigan State almost certainly will be on the outside looking in.
Saturday wasn't good for the Big Ten's other bowl eligible teams, aside from Illinois, which didn't play. Northwestern and Michigan both ended the regular season with back-to-back blowout losses, while Iowa ended on a three-game slide. While Penn State showed more fire in its game against Michigan State, the Lions clearly aren't an elite squad this year.
The most interesting decision rests with the Outback Bowl, which likely will decide between Penn State and Iowa.
Illinois' regular-season finale on Friday at Fresno State could impact things, although I don't think it will.
My projections are exactly the same as they were a week ago:
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. BCS team
Sugar or Orange Bowl: Ohio State vs. BCS team
Capital One Bowl: Michigan State vs. SEC team
Outback Bowl: Penn State vs. SEC team
Gator Bowl: Iowa vs. SEC team
Insight Bowl: Michigan vs. Big 12 team
Texas Bowl: Illinois vs. Big 12 team
TicketCity Bowl: Northwestern vs. Big 12 team
The Big Ten won't fill its slot in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl. Purdue, Indiana and Minnesota aren't bowl eligible.
The results of this past weekend coupled with the firing of former Miami coach Randy Shannon opened up the possibilities for the ACC’s nine bowl-eligible teams, but the beginning and the end of the selection process are unlikely to change. Virginia Tech and Florida State, the two division winners, will be the first two chosen, and Boston College will probably still be the last team taken.
The Champs Sports Bowl is the one that will determine how the rest of the selection process unfolds this year. If it doesn’t take Maryland – a deserving, eight-win team, it’s quite possible the Terps still fall as far as the Military Bowl. While an uneventful “home game” in a lower-tier bowl isn’t fair to Ralph Friedgen’s team considering the turnaround it has had this year, ticket sales still remain a driving factor in the selection process, and attendance in Byrd Stadium has been lacking. Again.
How bowls view Miami’s status with interim head coach Jeff Stoutland will also be a factor, but odds are the program’s national brand will still make the Canes an attractive pick.
Here’s a look at this week’s bowl projections:
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. BCS
Chick-fil-A Bowl: Florida State vs. SEC
Champs Sports Bowl: NC State vs. Big East
Hyundai Sun Bowl: Miami vs. Pac-10
Meineke Car Care Bowl: Clemson vs. Big East
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl: North Carolina vs. SEC
Advocare V100 Independence Bowl: Maryland vs. Mountain West
Military Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Conference USA
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Boston College vs. WAC
The Champs Sports Bowl is the one that will determine how the rest of the selection process unfolds this year. If it doesn’t take Maryland – a deserving, eight-win team, it’s quite possible the Terps still fall as far as the Military Bowl. While an uneventful “home game” in a lower-tier bowl isn’t fair to Ralph Friedgen’s team considering the turnaround it has had this year, ticket sales still remain a driving factor in the selection process, and attendance in Byrd Stadium has been lacking. Again.
How bowls view Miami’s status with interim head coach Jeff Stoutland will also be a factor, but odds are the program’s national brand will still make the Canes an attractive pick.
Here’s a look at this week’s bowl projections:
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. BCS
Chick-fil-A Bowl: Florida State vs. SEC
Champs Sports Bowl: NC State vs. Big East
Hyundai Sun Bowl: Miami vs. Pac-10
Meineke Car Care Bowl: Clemson vs. Big East
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl: North Carolina vs. SEC
Advocare V100 Independence Bowl: Maryland vs. Mountain West
Military Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Conference USA
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Boston College vs. WAC
Some changes in the bowl projections this week, with Stanford and Washington leading the charge.
We continue to project Oregon in the national title game, only we have replaced the Ducks' opponent. It is now Auburn. That matchup will be great fun.
If Auburn wins the SEC title game, that means TCU is going to the Rose Bowl, because of a clause in the BCS contract. But we are also projecting Stanford will climb into the No. 4 position in the BCS standings, which will earn the Cardinal a guaranteed spot in a BCS bowl, because of a clause in the BCS contract.
See: Sometimes clauses work for you.
The machination of bowl games are often hard to figure, but I am now projecting that Stanford ends up in the Fiesta Bowl. Why? Why not. It makes the most regional sense, and while the Cardinal doesn't have a huge fan base, it will drive TV ratings, with lots of folks tuning in to see quarterback Andrew Luck. And maybe some fans who have Jim Harbaugh on their coaching wish list this Christmas will be interested.
If you want to see an excellent breakdown of Stanford scenarios, go here.
The other big change is Washington to the Holiday Bowl, which means we believe the Huskies will win at Washington State on Saturday and improve to 6-6.
Finally, there's the Territorial Cup: Arizona State at Arizona.
The Sun Devils (5-6) bowl hopes are over. With 70 bowl-eligible teams, there is no need for the Pac-10 to apply for an NCAA waiver for the Sun Devils, who played two FCS teams and therefore, by NCAA rules, need seven wins to earn bowl eligibility.
Arizona State, however, might be able to make the Alamo Bowl think twice about taking the Wildcats. If the Sun Devils win Thursday, Arizona will finish the season with a four-game losing streak. Bowls don't like that.
While Washington lost big at Arizona, and would have a worse overall record, the Huskies would be 5-4 in Pac-10 play, the Wildcats 4-5. That might be enough for the Alamo Bowl to pick Jake Locker -- a big name for the game -- over the Wildcats.
Not sure the Holiday Bowl would be thrilled from a repeat visit from Arizona, but in that scenario it wouldn't have much of a choice.
We continue to project Oregon in the national title game, only we have replaced the Ducks' opponent. It is now Auburn. That matchup will be great fun.
If Auburn wins the SEC title game, that means TCU is going to the Rose Bowl, because of a clause in the BCS contract. But we are also projecting Stanford will climb into the No. 4 position in the BCS standings, which will earn the Cardinal a guaranteed spot in a BCS bowl, because of a clause in the BCS contract.
See: Sometimes clauses work for you.
The machination of bowl games are often hard to figure, but I am now projecting that Stanford ends up in the Fiesta Bowl. Why? Why not. It makes the most regional sense, and while the Cardinal doesn't have a huge fan base, it will drive TV ratings, with lots of folks tuning in to see quarterback Andrew Luck. And maybe some fans who have Jim Harbaugh on their coaching wish list this Christmas will be interested.
If you want to see an excellent breakdown of Stanford scenarios, go here.
The other big change is Washington to the Holiday Bowl, which means we believe the Huskies will win at Washington State on Saturday and improve to 6-6.
Finally, there's the Territorial Cup: Arizona State at Arizona.
The Sun Devils (5-6) bowl hopes are over. With 70 bowl-eligible teams, there is no need for the Pac-10 to apply for an NCAA waiver for the Sun Devils, who played two FCS teams and therefore, by NCAA rules, need seven wins to earn bowl eligibility.
Arizona State, however, might be able to make the Alamo Bowl think twice about taking the Wildcats. If the Sun Devils win Thursday, Arizona will finish the season with a four-game losing streak. Bowls don't like that.
While Washington lost big at Arizona, and would have a worse overall record, the Huskies would be 5-4 in Pac-10 play, the Wildcats 4-5. That might be enough for the Alamo Bowl to pick Jake Locker -- a big name for the game -- over the Wildcats.
Not sure the Holiday Bowl would be thrilled from a repeat visit from Arizona, but in that scenario it wouldn't have much of a choice.
- Tostitos BCS National Championship Game: Oregon vs. Auburn
- Rose Bowl Game: TCU vs. Big Ten
- Fiesta Bowl: Stanford vs. Big 12 champion
- Valero Alamo: Arizona vs. Big 12
- Bridgepoint Education Holiday: Washington vs. Big 12
- Hyundai Sun: No team.
- MAACO Las Vegas: No team
- Kraft Fight Hunger: No team.
The good news for the Big East bowl picture from over the weekend is that the league has exactly six bowl eligible teams for six spots. The bad news is that Notre Dame won at USC to get its seventh win, making it eligible to take the Big East's No. 2 slot in the Champs Sports Bowl.
I think the Orlando game will snatch up the Irish, who are on a three-game winning streak, leaving one Big East team searching for an at-large spot. And that team will be 6-6 Louisville, which I'm projecting to take the vacant Big Ten spot in the Little Caesars Bowl (Hello, December in Detroit!).
You can tell by the rest of my projections who I expect to win this week's big matchups.
BCS (Fiesta): West Virginia
Meineke Car Care: Connecticut
BBVA Compass: South Florida
New Era Pinstripe: Syracuse
Beef O'Brady's: Pittsburgh
Little Caesars (at-large): Louisville
Eliminated from postseason: Rutgers, Cincinnati
I think the Orlando game will snatch up the Irish, who are on a three-game winning streak, leaving one Big East team searching for an at-large spot. And that team will be 6-6 Louisville, which I'm projecting to take the vacant Big Ten spot in the Little Caesars Bowl (Hello, December in Detroit!).
You can tell by the rest of my projections who I expect to win this week's big matchups.
BCS (Fiesta): West Virginia
Meineke Car Care: Connecticut
BBVA Compass: South Florida
New Era Pinstripe: Syracuse
Beef O'Brady's: Pittsburgh
Little Caesars (at-large): Louisville
Eliminated from postseason: Rutgers, Cincinnati
For the fifth straight year, it looks like the SEC will get two teams in BCS bowl games.
The big winner this past weekend was Arkansas, which is headed to the Sugar Bowl if Auburn can beat South Carolina this coming Saturday in the SEC championship game and secure a spot in the BCS National Championship Game.
The Hogs, who beat LSU 31-23 on Saturday to run their winning streak to six straight games, last played in the Sugar Bowl in 1980. An Arkansas-Ohio State matchup looks like a strong possibility in New Orleans, but only if Auburn wins this coming weekend in Atlanta.
If South Carolina upsets Auburn, then the Gamecocks would play in the Sugar Bowl and Auburn likely in the Orange Bowl.
Georgia and Tennessee both won their games over the weekend to get to six wins and gain bowl eligibility. This will be the 14th straight season that Georgia has gone to a bowl game.
The Vols, who were winless during the month of October, won their last four games to qualify for a bowl. They will likely stay in-state and play in the Music City Bowl against an ACC team.
The bowl matchups will be finalized later this week and following the SEC championship game, but here’s the way I see things shaking out now that the regular season has concluded.
The big winner this past weekend was Arkansas, which is headed to the Sugar Bowl if Auburn can beat South Carolina this coming Saturday in the SEC championship game and secure a spot in the BCS National Championship Game.
The Hogs, who beat LSU 31-23 on Saturday to run their winning streak to six straight games, last played in the Sugar Bowl in 1980. An Arkansas-Ohio State matchup looks like a strong possibility in New Orleans, but only if Auburn wins this coming weekend in Atlanta.
If South Carolina upsets Auburn, then the Gamecocks would play in the Sugar Bowl and Auburn likely in the Orange Bowl.
Georgia and Tennessee both won their games over the weekend to get to six wins and gain bowl eligibility. This will be the 14th straight season that Georgia has gone to a bowl game.
The Vols, who were winless during the month of October, won their last four games to qualify for a bowl. They will likely stay in-state and play in the Music City Bowl against an ACC team.
The bowl matchups will be finalized later this week and following the SEC championship game, but here’s the way I see things shaking out now that the regular season has concluded.
- Tostitos BCS National Championship Game (Jan. 10, 8:30 p.m. ET): Auburn vs. BCS team
- Allstate Sugar Bowl (Jan. 4, 8:30 p.m. ET): Arkansas vs. BCS team
- Capital One Bowl (Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET): LSU vs. Big Ten team
- AT&T Cotton Bowl (Jan. 7, 8 p.m. ET): Alabama vs. Big 12 team
- Outback Bowl (Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET): South Carolina vs. Big Ten team
- Chick-fil-A Bowl (Dec. 31, 7:30 p.m. ET): Mississippi State vs. ACC team
- Gator Bowl (Jan. 1, 1:30 p.m. ET): Florida vs. Big Ten team
- Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl (Dec. 30, 6:40 p.m. ET): Tennessee vs. ACC team
- AutoZone Liberty Bowl (Dec. 31, 3:30 p.m. ET): Georgia vs. Conference USA team
- BBVA Compass Bowl (Jan. 8, noon ET): Kentucky vs. Big East team
The top is mostly settled. The Big 12 champion will go to the Fiesta Bowl, of course, and the Big 12 also has a chance -- albeit a very, very slim one -- to nab a second BCS bid.
The bottom of the bowl projections are mostly settled after Texas Tech and Kansas State took care of business in nonconference games to close the season.
But, oh, that dastardly muddled middle. The loser of the Big 12 title game won't be headed back to Cowboys Stadium five weeks later, but the manner in which it loses will probably have at least some effect on how far it falls. Texas A&M will almost certainly land in the Cotton Bowl, but no order of the next three bowls would surprise me. Very little is settled, and some is dependent on what happens in Dallas next weekend.
And to close matters, there are 70 bowl-eligible teams, so Texas is in the clear to clean out its lockers. No 5-7 teams will be bowling this year.
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. BCS
AT&T Cotton Bowl: Texas A&M vs. SEC
Valero Alamo Bowl: Nebraska vs. Pac-10
Insight Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Big Ten
Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl: Missouri vs. Pac-10
Texas Bowl: Baylor vs. Big Ten
New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Kansas State vs. Big East
TicketCity Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Big Ten
The bottom of the bowl projections are mostly settled after Texas Tech and Kansas State took care of business in nonconference games to close the season.
But, oh, that dastardly muddled middle. The loser of the Big 12 title game won't be headed back to Cowboys Stadium five weeks later, but the manner in which it loses will probably have at least some effect on how far it falls. Texas A&M will almost certainly land in the Cotton Bowl, but no order of the next three bowls would surprise me. Very little is settled, and some is dependent on what happens in Dallas next weekend.
And to close matters, there are 70 bowl-eligible teams, so Texas is in the clear to clean out its lockers. No 5-7 teams will be bowling this year.
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. BCS
AT&T Cotton Bowl: Texas A&M vs. SEC
Valero Alamo Bowl: Nebraska vs. Pac-10
Insight Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Big Ten
Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl: Missouri vs. Pac-10
Texas Bowl: Baylor vs. Big Ten
New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Kansas State vs. Big East
TicketCity Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Big Ten
After Auburn won and Boise State lost this weekend, I am projecting no non-AQ team in the BCS title game. The Tigers impressed me with their comeback win, and I think they beat South Carolina in the SEC championship game. That leaves TCU in the Rose Bowl -- a pretty sweet consolation prize if the Horned Frogs get left out of the BCS title game.
Right now, I have Boise State in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, but that is not a guarantee. There are several factors that come into play, and one that could have the WAC work out a deal to get the Broncos into a game without a WAC tie-in. The Las Vegas Bowl against Utah could be a possibility, depending on agreements worked out with other bowls and conferences. That game will not have a Pac-10 representative, and Notre Dame is likely out of the mix. Right now, its at-large spot would most likely go to a MAC team.
As for the others: I still have UCF winning the C-USA championship game, and Northern Illinois winning the MAC title game. The only bowl eligible team that gets left out this week is Western Michigan (6-6). ULM is out after losing its finale to Louisiana. Middle Tennessee still has hopes of becoming eligible -- it would get there with a win against conference champ FIU on Saturday. If the Blue Raiders do become eligible, they would head to the Little Caesars Bowl, which has a backup agreement with the Sun Belt.
Bowl games:
Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO: Wisconsin vs. TCU
Kraft Fight Hunger: Boston College vs. Boise State
GoDaddy.com: Miami (Ohio) vs. Troy
AutoZone Liberty: UCF vs. Georgia
Hyundai Sun: Miami vs. Toledo
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces: SMU vs. Army
Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman: Clemson vs. Southern Miss
AdvoCare V100 Independence: Georgia Tech vs. Air Force
Little Caesars: Louisville vs. Northern Illinois
Sheraton Hawaii: Tulsa vs. Hawaii*
S.D. County Credit Union Poinsettia: San Diego State vs. Navy*
MAACO Las Vegas: Utah vs. Ohio
Beef 'O' Brady's St. Petersburg: USF vs. East Carolina
R+L Carriers New Orleans: UTEP vs. FIU
uDrove Humanitarian: Temple vs. Nevada
New Mexico: BYU vs. Fresno State
Right now, I have Boise State in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, but that is not a guarantee. There are several factors that come into play, and one that could have the WAC work out a deal to get the Broncos into a game without a WAC tie-in. The Las Vegas Bowl against Utah could be a possibility, depending on agreements worked out with other bowls and conferences. That game will not have a Pac-10 representative, and Notre Dame is likely out of the mix. Right now, its at-large spot would most likely go to a MAC team.
As for the others: I still have UCF winning the C-USA championship game, and Northern Illinois winning the MAC title game. The only bowl eligible team that gets left out this week is Western Michigan (6-6). ULM is out after losing its finale to Louisiana. Middle Tennessee still has hopes of becoming eligible -- it would get there with a win against conference champ FIU on Saturday. If the Blue Raiders do become eligible, they would head to the Little Caesars Bowl, which has a backup agreement with the Sun Belt.
Bowl games:
Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO: Wisconsin vs. TCU
Kraft Fight Hunger: Boston College vs. Boise State
GoDaddy.com: Miami (Ohio) vs. Troy
AutoZone Liberty: UCF vs. Georgia
Hyundai Sun: Miami vs. Toledo
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces: SMU vs. Army
Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman: Clemson vs. Southern Miss
AdvoCare V100 Independence: Georgia Tech vs. Air Force
Little Caesars: Louisville vs. Northern Illinois
Sheraton Hawaii: Tulsa vs. Hawaii*
S.D. County Credit Union Poinsettia: San Diego State vs. Navy*
MAACO Las Vegas: Utah vs. Ohio
Beef 'O' Brady's St. Petersburg: USF vs. East Carolina
R+L Carriers New Orleans: UTEP vs. FIU
uDrove Humanitarian: Temple vs. Nevada
New Mexico: BYU vs. Fresno State
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