A look at Pac-10 bowl possibilities, take 3

Posted by ESPN.com's Ted Miller

The picture begins to clear...

Who's in: USC (10-1. 7-1), Oregon (9-3, 7-2), Oregon State (8-4, 7-2), California (7-4, 5-3), Arizona (6-5, 4-4)

Who's out: Stanford, UCLA, Washington and Washington State.

Who's a maybe: Arizona State.

Arizona State needs to beat Arizona on Saturday to earn bowl eligibility.

At most, the Pac-10 can have six bowl-eligible teams. Or it can end up with only five, meaning it won't fill at least two of its seven bowl contracts.

The bowl contracts (selection order): Rose (1), Holiday (2), Sun (3), Las Vegas (4 or 5), Emerald (4 or 5) and Hawaii (6). The Poinsettia (7) is out.

The selection rule: If there is a tie for the Pac-10 championship, the head-to-head winner among the tied teams shall be awarded the Conference's top bowl position. In the event of a tie for any position in the standings other than the championship, the selecting bowl may choose its participant from among the tied teams.

The week's intrigue: If USC loses to UCLA, Oregon State wins a three-way tiebreaker with the Trojans and Oregon and goes to the Rose Bowl. USC then goes to the Holiday Bowl and Oregon would go to the Sun or Las Vegas -- the latter if the Sun uses its no-repeat clause.

If California loses to Washington, it would drop to 5-4 in the conference and be tied with the Arizona and Arizona State winner.

Quirks of note: 1. The Sun Bowl has the right to reject a team that played in the game last year, meaning Oregon. 2. The Las Vegas and Emerald Bowls have a relationship, meaning Vegas might give up Cal to give the Emerald Bowl a local angle.

Here's the team-by-team breakdown.


Possibilities: Vegas, Emerald, Hawaii

Prediction: Vegas.

Arizona State

Possibilities: Vegas, Emerald or Hawaii

Prediction: Out.


Possibilities: Vegas, Emerald

Prediction: Emerald


Possibilities: Holiday, Sun or Vegas

Prediction: Holiday

Oregon State

Possibilities: Rose, Holiday, Sun

Prediction: Sun


Possibilities: Rose, Holiday

Prediction: Rose