College Football Nation: conference-race-103111
Two huge games highlight the SEC schedule this coming weekend and will go a long way toward determining which two teams will be in Atlanta in December.
The Alabama-LSU winner takes a commanding lead in the Western Division race, although if the Tigers win, they still have to beat Arkansas in the regular-season finale on Nov. 25. That game is in Baton Rouge.
If Alabama wins this Saturday, it would take a major upset to keep the Crimson Tide from making their third trip to the SEC championship game in the past four years. They have Mississippi State and Auburn remaining in the conference, although both games are on the road.
Should LSU win on Saturday and then lose to Arkansas, creating a three-way tie among the teams, the tiebreaker would be determined by the BCS standings that come out the Sunday following the final regular-season games. Here’s the caveat: The tied team with the highest ranking in the BCS standings would be the West representative unless the second of the tied teams is within five or fewer places of the highest ranked team.
In that case, the head-to-head results of the top two ranked teams would determine the West representative.
For example, if Arkansas were to rise to No. 3 in the BCS standings after beating LSU, and Alabama was No. 4 and LSU No. 5, Alabama would be the West champ because it beat Arkansas head-to-head during the regular season and was within five spots of Arkansas in the BCS standings. In that scenario, LSU would be eliminated from the process as the third highest team in the BCS standings.
Now that we’re all clear on that, the East race is officially a two-team race between Georgia and South Carolina.
They each have one loss apiece in the SEC, while the other four teams in the East all have at least four conference losses.
The Gamecocks hold the head-to-head tiebreaker based on their 45-42 win over the Bulldogs the second week of the season. If South Carolina wins its next two games against Arkansas on the road and Florida at home, Steve Spurrier’s club will make its second straight trip to the SEC championship game.
So the Bulldogs, despite winning their last six games, still need some help. Their schedule the rest of the way is a little easier. They get Auburn and Kentucky, both at home.
Georgia hasn’t played in the SEC championship game since winning its last SEC title in 2005.
The Alabama-LSU winner takes a commanding lead in the Western Division race, although if the Tigers win, they still have to beat Arkansas in the regular-season finale on Nov. 25. That game is in Baton Rouge.
If Alabama wins this Saturday, it would take a major upset to keep the Crimson Tide from making their third trip to the SEC championship game in the past four years. They have Mississippi State and Auburn remaining in the conference, although both games are on the road.
Should LSU win on Saturday and then lose to Arkansas, creating a three-way tie among the teams, the tiebreaker would be determined by the BCS standings that come out the Sunday following the final regular-season games. Here’s the caveat: The tied team with the highest ranking in the BCS standings would be the West representative unless the second of the tied teams is within five or fewer places of the highest ranked team.
In that case, the head-to-head results of the top two ranked teams would determine the West representative.
For example, if Arkansas were to rise to No. 3 in the BCS standings after beating LSU, and Alabama was No. 4 and LSU No. 5, Alabama would be the West champ because it beat Arkansas head-to-head during the regular season and was within five spots of Arkansas in the BCS standings. In that scenario, LSU would be eliminated from the process as the third highest team in the BCS standings.
Now that we’re all clear on that, the East race is officially a two-team race between Georgia and South Carolina.
They each have one loss apiece in the SEC, while the other four teams in the East all have at least four conference losses.
The Gamecocks hold the head-to-head tiebreaker based on their 45-42 win over the Bulldogs the second week of the season. If South Carolina wins its next two games against Arkansas on the road and Florida at home, Steve Spurrier’s club will make its second straight trip to the SEC championship game.
So the Bulldogs, despite winning their last six games, still need some help. Their schedule the rest of the way is a little easier. They get Auburn and Kentucky, both at home.
Georgia hasn’t played in the SEC championship game since winning its last SEC title in 2005.
A once-complicated Big 12 race has gotten pretty simple.
After Texas A&M's loss, it's boiled down to essentially one game and two teams. Sounds like Bedlam.
Oklahoma State and Oklahoma have clearly proven themselves as the Big 12's elite teams. Oklahoma did it once again on Saturday, delivering a second convincing blowout win over a team with a winning record.
Oklahoma State did the same, laying waste to Baylor at Boone Pickens Stadium.
Kansas State is still very much in the race, but the league's top two teams in the standings will meet in Stillwater on Saturday, and the Wildcats are a three-touchdown underdog after losing to Oklahoma by 41 points.
That doesn't inspire a lot of confidence, and I don't have a lot of faith that after Saturday, K-State will still be in the race. The Wildcats are a great team, but not one I believed could hang with the most talented teams in the league.
Speaking of the most talented teams in the league, Texas A&M suffered a third embarrassing loss on Saturday to all but eliminate itself from the race. Even if the Aggies knock off Oklahoma on Saturday, they would need Oklahoma State to lose three times to win the league.
Good luck with that.
The losses aren't so much embarrassing in opponent, but embarrassing in the box score. The Aggies have memorably blown leads of 18, 17 and 14 points to Arkansas, Oklahoma State and Missouri, and all of a sudden, a once-promising season has taken an ugly turn.
Thus, here we are. Bedlam for all the proverbial marbles on Dec. 3.
Big 12 standings:
T-1. Oklahoma State (4-0)
T-2. Kansas State (4-1)
T-2. Oklahoma (4-1)
4. Texas A&M (3-2)
5. Texas Tech (2-3)
6. Texas (2-2)
7. Missouri (2-3)
8. Baylor (1-3)
9. Iowa State (1-4)
10. Kansas (0-5)
After Texas A&M's loss, it's boiled down to essentially one game and two teams. Sounds like Bedlam.
Oklahoma State and Oklahoma have clearly proven themselves as the Big 12's elite teams. Oklahoma did it once again on Saturday, delivering a second convincing blowout win over a team with a winning record.
Oklahoma State did the same, laying waste to Baylor at Boone Pickens Stadium.
Kansas State is still very much in the race, but the league's top two teams in the standings will meet in Stillwater on Saturday, and the Wildcats are a three-touchdown underdog after losing to Oklahoma by 41 points.
That doesn't inspire a lot of confidence, and I don't have a lot of faith that after Saturday, K-State will still be in the race. The Wildcats are a great team, but not one I believed could hang with the most talented teams in the league.
Speaking of the most talented teams in the league, Texas A&M suffered a third embarrassing loss on Saturday to all but eliminate itself from the race. Even if the Aggies knock off Oklahoma on Saturday, they would need Oklahoma State to lose three times to win the league.
Good luck with that.
The losses aren't so much embarrassing in opponent, but embarrassing in the box score. The Aggies have memorably blown leads of 18, 17 and 14 points to Arkansas, Oklahoma State and Missouri, and all of a sudden, a once-promising season has taken an ugly turn.
Thus, here we are. Bedlam for all the proverbial marbles on Dec. 3.
Big 12 standings:
T-1. Oklahoma State (4-0)
T-2. Kansas State (4-1)
T-2. Oklahoma (4-1)
4. Texas A&M (3-2)
5. Texas Tech (2-3)
6. Texas (2-2)
7. Missouri (2-3)
8. Baylor (1-3)
9. Iowa State (1-4)
10. Kansas (0-5)
Little changed over the weekend in the Pac-12.
The most likely scenario for the Pac-12 title race is the winner of the Oregon-Stanford game on Nov. 12 earning the North Division title and playing host to South Division winner Arizona State in the Pac-12 championship game on Dec. 2.
It would require a dramatic turn of events for that not to happen. The biggest bits of intrigue: 1. Will Stanford win out and play for the national title? 2. Can the conference produce two BCS bowl teams?
You can see the Pac-12 standings here.
Of course, with UCLA's win over California, the Bruins are in the South Division picture: If they beat Arizona State on Saturday and win out, the Bruins would win the South. (USC isn't eligible because of NCAA sanctions).
In the North, Washington could make a stunning move this weekend against Oregon, though it needs Stanford to lose twice. Unlikely but not impossible.
Still, the most reasonable scenario is clear: The Sun Devils are likely headed to either Stanford or Oregon for the Pac-12 title game, which will be played on the home field of the team with the best conference record (tie-breakers are: 1. head-to-head; 2. BCS standings ranking).
The most likely scenario for the Pac-12 title race is the winner of the Oregon-Stanford game on Nov. 12 earning the North Division title and playing host to South Division winner Arizona State in the Pac-12 championship game on Dec. 2.
It would require a dramatic turn of events for that not to happen. The biggest bits of intrigue: 1. Will Stanford win out and play for the national title? 2. Can the conference produce two BCS bowl teams?
You can see the Pac-12 standings here.
Of course, with UCLA's win over California, the Bruins are in the South Division picture: If they beat Arizona State on Saturday and win out, the Bruins would win the South. (USC isn't eligible because of NCAA sanctions).
In the North, Washington could make a stunning move this weekend against Oregon, though it needs Stanford to lose twice. Unlikely but not impossible.
Still, the most reasonable scenario is clear: The Sun Devils are likely headed to either Stanford or Oregon for the Pac-12 title game, which will be played on the home field of the team with the best conference record (tie-breakers are: 1. head-to-head; 2. BCS standings ranking).
There are only two teams remaining with one conference loss each -- Clemson in the Atlantic Division and Virginia Tech in the Coastal Division. Both teams are the frontrunners to win their respective divisions and meet in Charlotte for the ACC championship game, but with a month of games still remaining, the ACC race is far from wrapped up. While there are still several scenarios that could play out, let’s focus on the teams that have the best chances.
In the Atlantic Division, Wake Forest is the top challenger to Clemson. The Demon Deacons play Notre Dame this weekend, but travel to Clemson on Nov. 12. If Wake pulls off the upset in Death Valley, it would win the head-to-head tiebreaker, but would still have to beat Maryland. If Florida State wins out and finishes 6-2 in the ACC standings, it still would need both Wake Forest and Clemson to finish with three losses each because it loses the tiebreaker to both of those teams.
The Coastal Division is a little more complicated with Georgia Tech and Virginia trailing the Hokies with two losses each. If Georgia Tech wins out and finishes with a 6-2 record, it would win the tiebreaker over Virginia Tech, but it needs Virginia to lose, because it would lose the tiebreaker with the Cavaliers. If the Hoos win out, they would go to the ACC championship game because they would have beaten Georgia Tech AND Virginia Tech and finished with a 6-2 record.
Bottom line: It's still too early to crown anyone champs in either division.
In the Atlantic Division, Wake Forest is the top challenger to Clemson. The Demon Deacons play Notre Dame this weekend, but travel to Clemson on Nov. 12. If Wake pulls off the upset in Death Valley, it would win the head-to-head tiebreaker, but would still have to beat Maryland. If Florida State wins out and finishes 6-2 in the ACC standings, it still would need both Wake Forest and Clemson to finish with three losses each because it loses the tiebreaker to both of those teams.
The Coastal Division is a little more complicated with Georgia Tech and Virginia trailing the Hokies with two losses each. If Georgia Tech wins out and finishes with a 6-2 record, it would win the tiebreaker over Virginia Tech, but it needs Virginia to lose, because it would lose the tiebreaker with the Cavaliers. If the Hoos win out, they would go to the ACC championship game because they would have beaten Georgia Tech AND Virginia Tech and finished with a 6-2 record.
Bottom line: It's still too early to crown anyone champs in either division.
Let's check in on how the Big East race is shaking out. Cincinnati, West Virginia and Pitt actually control their own destinies because none of these teams has faced each other. So simply put: If Cincinnati wins out, the Bearcats are the league champs; if West Virginia wins out, the Mountaineers are the league champs; if Pitt wins out, the Panthers are the league champs.
1. Cincinnati (2-0). As the only team unbeaten in league play, the Bearcats are still in the driver's seat. Remaining schedule: at Pitt; West Virginia; at Rutgers; at Syracuse; UConn.
2. West Virginia (2-1). The Mountaineers have a tough home game against Louisville this weekend, then go to Cincinnati; have a bye; home to Pitt, then close up at USF. That game against the Bearcats is going to have huge Big East championship implications.
3. Pittsburgh (2-1). Believe it or not, the Panthers do have a shot at the Big East. They would go a very long way toward that goal with a victory over Cincinnati on Saturday. Then they play at Louisville; bye; at West Virginia; then home to Syracuse.
4. Louisville (2-1). The Cardinals would need some help but stranger things have happened. They need to win out, then hope for Cincinnati to lose twice. The Bearcats already won the head-to-head meeting. Louisville goes to West Virginia on Saturday, then Pitt; at UConn; at USF.
Rutgers, Syracuse and UConn each has two league losses. It's not out of the realm of possibility for a two-loss team to win the league — it happened last season. But each of these three would have to win out and then hope for some major help. USF (0-3) is essentially eliminated. No three-loss team has ever won the conference.
1. Cincinnati (2-0). As the only team unbeaten in league play, the Bearcats are still in the driver's seat. Remaining schedule: at Pitt; West Virginia; at Rutgers; at Syracuse; UConn.
2. West Virginia (2-1). The Mountaineers have a tough home game against Louisville this weekend, then go to Cincinnati; have a bye; home to Pitt, then close up at USF. That game against the Bearcats is going to have huge Big East championship implications.
3. Pittsburgh (2-1). Believe it or not, the Panthers do have a shot at the Big East. They would go a very long way toward that goal with a victory over Cincinnati on Saturday. Then they play at Louisville; bye; at West Virginia; then home to Syracuse.
4. Louisville (2-1). The Cardinals would need some help but stranger things have happened. They need to win out, then hope for Cincinnati to lose twice. The Bearcats already won the head-to-head meeting. Louisville goes to West Virginia on Saturday, then Pitt; at UConn; at USF.
Rutgers, Syracuse and UConn each has two league losses. It's not out of the realm of possibility for a two-loss team to win the league — it happened last season. But each of these three would have to win out and then hope for some major help. USF (0-3) is essentially eliminated. No three-loss team has ever won the conference.
If the Big Ten title race has your head spinning, you're not alone.
We know two teams will meet Dec. 3 in Indianapolis for the inaugural Big Ten championship game, but forecasting which squads head to Naptown is no easy task. Right now, each division features three primary contenders (sorry, Iowa and Illinois).
LEADERS
The team with the most direct path, Penn State, seemingly has the toughest remaining schedule of any contender (Nebraska, at Ohio State, at Wisconsin). While Penn State holds a two-and-a-half game lead in the Leaders Division over both Ohio State and Wisconsin, the Lions can't go on cruise control.
The Legends Division race is more convoluted as three teams -- Nebraska, Michigan State and Michigan -- are tied for first place at 3-1. I wrote several weeks ago that the team within this group that can win on the road has the best chance of heading to Indianapolis. Michigan has stumbled at Michigan State and Michigan State has stumbled at Nebraska. If the Huskers find a way to win in the Big House on Nov. 19, don't be surprised to see them in Indy two weeks later.
A lot of you are asking about the tiebreakers, and we'll explore them more as things continue to shake out. Here's the full breakdown. The thing to remember: division games really matter. For example, if Nebraska has to lose one game the rest of the way, falling to Penn State would be better than falling to Michigan.
In an effort to break down the division races and these six teams during my flight home from Columbus, I looked at the remaining schedules and made two lists: most likely to win out and most likely to lose twice. I'd be very surprised if a team with three conference losses has a chance to go to the title game.
In compiling these lists, I took into account several factors such as game site, how a team is performing right now and when certain players return from injuries/suspensions.
LIST No. 1: MOST LIKELY TO WIN OUT
1. Wisconsin (Purdue and Penn State at home; Minnesota and Illinois on road)
2. Michigan State (Minnesota and Indiana at home; Iowa and Northwestern on road)
3. Ohio State (Indiana and Penn State at home; Purdue and Michigan on road)
4. Michigan (Nebraska and Ohio State at home; Iowa and Illinois on road)
5. Nebraska (Northwestern at Iowa at home; Penn State and Michigan on road)
6. Penn State (Nebraska at home, Ohio State and Wisconsin on road)
We can debate these rankings -- and I trust that you will -- but it helps shape how I think the races will play out. Despite losing Saturday, Wisconsin and Michigan State clearly have the easiest remaining schedules. Ohio State has the mojo and gets Penn State at home before visiting archrival Michigan, a team it has dominated recently. Michigan has no gimme games left, although the Wolverines' two toughest contests are at home. Nebraska and Penn State are at the bottom because they have the toughest remaining road schedules.
LIST No. 2: MOST LIKELY TO LOSE TWO GAMES
1. Penn State
2. Michigan
3. Nebraska
4. Ohio State
5. Wisconsin
6. Michigan State
Again, not to rip on Joe Paterno's crew, but I don't see Penn State winning in Madison. Could the Lions beat both Nebraska and Ohio State? Sure. But a 1-1 split seems more likely. While Michigan might have a better chance of winning out than Nebraska, Brady Hoke's crew has no easy games given the sites and could easily fall twice. Michigan State might lose once on the road but should handle its other games, while Wisconsin could fall to Illinois and Penn State.
Based on these lists, I wouldn't be shocked to see a Wisconsin-Michigan State rematch in Indianapolis. I also wouldn't be surprised if Penn State, Ohio State, Nebraska or Michigan made it to Lucas Oil Stadium, either. Nothing should surprise us about this league right now.
There's a very long way to go, and a lot will change from now until Nov. 26.
We know two teams will meet Dec. 3 in Indianapolis for the inaugural Big Ten championship game, but forecasting which squads head to Naptown is no easy task. Right now, each division features three primary contenders (sorry, Iowa and Illinois).
LEADERS
- Penn State (8-1, 5-0)
- Wisconsin (6-2, 2-2)
- Ohio State (5-3, 2-2)
- Nebraska (7-1, 3-1)
- Michigan (7-1, 3-1)
- Michigan State (6-2, 3-1)
The team with the most direct path, Penn State, seemingly has the toughest remaining schedule of any contender (Nebraska, at Ohio State, at Wisconsin). While Penn State holds a two-and-a-half game lead in the Leaders Division over both Ohio State and Wisconsin, the Lions can't go on cruise control.
The Legends Division race is more convoluted as three teams -- Nebraska, Michigan State and Michigan -- are tied for first place at 3-1. I wrote several weeks ago that the team within this group that can win on the road has the best chance of heading to Indianapolis. Michigan has stumbled at Michigan State and Michigan State has stumbled at Nebraska. If the Huskers find a way to win in the Big House on Nov. 19, don't be surprised to see them in Indy two weeks later.
A lot of you are asking about the tiebreakers, and we'll explore them more as things continue to shake out. Here's the full breakdown. The thing to remember: division games really matter. For example, if Nebraska has to lose one game the rest of the way, falling to Penn State would be better than falling to Michigan.
In an effort to break down the division races and these six teams during my flight home from Columbus, I looked at the remaining schedules and made two lists: most likely to win out and most likely to lose twice. I'd be very surprised if a team with three conference losses has a chance to go to the title game.
In compiling these lists, I took into account several factors such as game site, how a team is performing right now and when certain players return from injuries/suspensions.
LIST No. 1: MOST LIKELY TO WIN OUT
1. Wisconsin (Purdue and Penn State at home; Minnesota and Illinois on road)
2. Michigan State (Minnesota and Indiana at home; Iowa and Northwestern on road)
3. Ohio State (Indiana and Penn State at home; Purdue and Michigan on road)
4. Michigan (Nebraska and Ohio State at home; Iowa and Illinois on road)
5. Nebraska (Northwestern at Iowa at home; Penn State and Michigan on road)
6. Penn State (Nebraska at home, Ohio State and Wisconsin on road)
We can debate these rankings -- and I trust that you will -- but it helps shape how I think the races will play out. Despite losing Saturday, Wisconsin and Michigan State clearly have the easiest remaining schedules. Ohio State has the mojo and gets Penn State at home before visiting archrival Michigan, a team it has dominated recently. Michigan has no gimme games left, although the Wolverines' two toughest contests are at home. Nebraska and Penn State are at the bottom because they have the toughest remaining road schedules.
LIST No. 2: MOST LIKELY TO LOSE TWO GAMES
1. Penn State
2. Michigan
3. Nebraska
4. Ohio State
5. Wisconsin
6. Michigan State
Again, not to rip on Joe Paterno's crew, but I don't see Penn State winning in Madison. Could the Lions beat both Nebraska and Ohio State? Sure. But a 1-1 split seems more likely. While Michigan might have a better chance of winning out than Nebraska, Brady Hoke's crew has no easy games given the sites and could easily fall twice. Michigan State might lose once on the road but should handle its other games, while Wisconsin could fall to Illinois and Penn State.
Based on these lists, I wouldn't be shocked to see a Wisconsin-Michigan State rematch in Indianapolis. I also wouldn't be surprised if Penn State, Ohio State, Nebraska or Michigan made it to Lucas Oil Stadium, either. Nothing should surprise us about this league right now.
There's a very long way to go, and a lot will change from now until Nov. 26.
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