College Football Nation: fearless predictions 083010
Anybody can pick divisional winners, players of the year and games of the year.
But let’s delve a little deeper into what to expect this season in the SEC.
Here are 10 fearless predictions to live by in 2010:
1. Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson will both rush for 1,000 yards: That’s never happened at Alabama, and it’s not something that has happened very often, period, in the SEC. The gold standard in this league for teammates rushing for more than 1,000 yards in the same season was established by Arkansas’ Darren McFadden and Felix Jones in 2007. They combined for 2,943 yards. McFadden finished with 1,830 and Jones with 1,113 that season, each averaging at least 5.6 yards per carry.
2. Mississippi State will violate the great Cowbell Compromise by the first SEC game: It’s a novel concept. But you know the first time Auburn is backed up deep in that Thursday night affair, that stadium starts to rock and Cameron Newton is trying to change a play, those bells are going to clang away.
3. Vanderbilt will score 20 points or more in an SEC game: OK, I know you’re saying, "Way to go out on a limb there, Low." But keep in mind that the Commodores never scored more than 16 points last season in an SEC game and averaged just 8.9 points in eight games against league foes.
4. Jeremiah Masoli will take the bulk of the snaps this season at quarterback for Ole Miss: However, he won’t take the first snap. Look for sophomore Nathan Stanley to start the opener, but for Masoli to take over by that first SEC game against Vanderbilt.
5. For the third time in the past six seasons, Tennessee will lose at least six games: There’s just too much youth and inexperience for Derek Dooley to overcome in his first season in Knoxville. The real goal will be avoiding a third losing season in the past six years. Since joining the SEC in 1933, the Vols have never had three losing seasons over a six-year span.
6. The LSU threesome of Terrence Toliver, Rueben Randle and Russell Shepard will emerge as one of the most dangerous receiving triumvirates in the SEC: They combined for five touchdown catches last season. Don’t be surprised if that number triples in 2010.
7. Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett will throw 40 touchdown passes: Yep, that seems like a lot. But Mallett has the arm, the presence in the pocket and the talent at receiver and tight end to do it. Kentucky’s Andre Woodson is the only SEC quarterback to throw 40 or more touchdown passes in a season. He threw exactly 40 in 2007.
8. Georgia will win at least 10 games, the seventh time that Mark Richt has done that in 10 seasons in Athens: Granted, they judge you in this league by how many championships you win. But consistency counts for something.
9. Kentucky’s Randall Cobb will score touchdowns four different ways – running, passing, receiving and on special teams: The guy’s so versatile that he might even write a few of my stories after games this season, direct traffic off campus and then finish his night by cleaning up the stadium. He was second in the SEC to Mark Ingram with 15 touchdowns last season.
10. SEC commissioner Mike Slive will average three more hours of sleep per night with Lane Kiffin no longer in the conference: And Slive's cell phone bill will be cut in half now that he won't be making daily calls to Tennessee athletic director Mike Hamilton, who's probably sleeping better himself.
But let’s delve a little deeper into what to expect this season in the SEC.
Here are 10 fearless predictions to live by in 2010:
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AP Photo/Mark J. TerrillMark Ingram will be part of a dynamic rushing duo for Alabama this season.
AP Photo/Mark J. TerrillMark Ingram will be part of a dynamic rushing duo for Alabama this season.2. Mississippi State will violate the great Cowbell Compromise by the first SEC game: It’s a novel concept. But you know the first time Auburn is backed up deep in that Thursday night affair, that stadium starts to rock and Cameron Newton is trying to change a play, those bells are going to clang away.
3. Vanderbilt will score 20 points or more in an SEC game: OK, I know you’re saying, "Way to go out on a limb there, Low." But keep in mind that the Commodores never scored more than 16 points last season in an SEC game and averaged just 8.9 points in eight games against league foes.
4. Jeremiah Masoli will take the bulk of the snaps this season at quarterback for Ole Miss: However, he won’t take the first snap. Look for sophomore Nathan Stanley to start the opener, but for Masoli to take over by that first SEC game against Vanderbilt.
5. For the third time in the past six seasons, Tennessee will lose at least six games: There’s just too much youth and inexperience for Derek Dooley to overcome in his first season in Knoxville. The real goal will be avoiding a third losing season in the past six years. Since joining the SEC in 1933, the Vols have never had three losing seasons over a six-year span.
6. The LSU threesome of Terrence Toliver, Rueben Randle and Russell Shepard will emerge as one of the most dangerous receiving triumvirates in the SEC: They combined for five touchdown catches last season. Don’t be surprised if that number triples in 2010.
7. Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett will throw 40 touchdown passes: Yep, that seems like a lot. But Mallett has the arm, the presence in the pocket and the talent at receiver and tight end to do it. Kentucky’s Andre Woodson is the only SEC quarterback to throw 40 or more touchdown passes in a season. He threw exactly 40 in 2007.
8. Georgia will win at least 10 games, the seventh time that Mark Richt has done that in 10 seasons in Athens: Granted, they judge you in this league by how many championships you win. But consistency counts for something.
9. Kentucky’s Randall Cobb will score touchdowns four different ways – running, passing, receiving and on special teams: The guy’s so versatile that he might even write a few of my stories after games this season, direct traffic off campus and then finish his night by cleaning up the stadium. He was second in the SEC to Mark Ingram with 15 touchdowns last season.
10. SEC commissioner Mike Slive will average three more hours of sleep per night with Lane Kiffin no longer in the conference: And Slive's cell phone bill will be cut in half now that he won't be making daily calls to Tennessee athletic director Mike Hamilton, who's probably sleeping better himself.
Here are 10 "fearless" predictions in advance of the 2010 season.
1. No team will go undefeated in conference play: You may have heard this: The Pac-10 is deep with good teams but appears to lack a dominant team. It would be a fairly substantial surprise if the Pac-10 champion goes 9-0 in conference play. It's more likely the champ will win a tiebreaker with a couple of other two-loss teams.
2. A Pac-10 player will go to New York for the Heisman Trophy ceremony: No conference boasts as many obvious Heisman Trophy candidates: Oregon State RB Jacquizz Rodgers, Washington QB Jake Locker, Stanford QB Andrew Luck, Oregon RB LaMichael James, etc. One of them will emerge from the "pac" and get invited to New York for the ceremony. Who? What are we: Nostradamus?
3. The Pac-10 will go 23-8 in nonconference games: UCLA is not going to beat Texas. Arizona State's chances at Wisconsin aren't good. Arizona and Washington will be underdogs at home vs. Iowa and Nebraska, respectively. Oregon should handle Tennessee. Oregon State is going to beat either TCU or Boise State. I feel pretty good about California's chances against UC Davis. USC won't lose a nonconference game because no team outside of the Pac-10 can beat USC (it hasn't happened in the regular season since 2002). I'm not going to write a phrase about 31 games, but you can feel free to do so below.
4. Chip Kelly will provide a brief answer to many, many questions: Chip, are you worried about your QB making his second career start in front of 105,000 at Neyland Stadium? "No." Coach, tell us about your recruiting philosophy? "Speed." What are your feelings on LaMichael James' 229 yards rushing? "Good." Coach, I bet my sister I could get you to say two words. "Lose." Coach, you just won Pac-10 coach of the year for the second time in two years as Oregon's coach? "Thanks."
5. Arizona DEs Ricky Elmore and Brooks Reed will combine for 18 sacks: The qualifier is both staying healthy all season, but this is the best pair of defensive ends in the Pac-10. When you scan the offensive lines in the conference, there aren't a whole lot of teams that will match them with equally capable tackles.
6. Lane Kiffin will order a turkey sandwich; controversy will ensue: Who does he think he is ordering a turkey sandwich in this economy? Turkey? He's not qualified to eat turkey! The Pilgrims ate turkey for golly-gosh sakes, and Kiffin is no Pilgrim. Isn't ordering a turkey sandwich a secondary NCAA rules violation? He hasn't earned that turkey sandwich! He didn't order a turkey sandwich: He called the counter guy a turkey and starting ordering him around. What actually happened: He got a recruiting hostess to order the turkey sandwich for him, which sounds corrupt even if it isn't. Oh, sure, Lane: That's your dream turkey sandwich, right! We have just as good turkey back here in Knoxville, I'll have you know. Did you hear: He falsely accused the turkey of being ham!
7. Arizona State's offense will be better -- and its defense worse -- than most folks think: The Sun Devils have better talent at the skill positions than many think and the offensive line -- if it can stay healthy and jell -- will be at least adequate, as will QB Steven Threet. This unit could average 25-26 or so points a game. Meanwhile, the defensive line depth has taken a couple of hits of late and, despite talent at all three levels, the fact remains that seven starters from last year's strong crew are gone.
8. Five teams will end up ranked in the final AP poll: Or at least they will deserve to be. The question will be will a 9-4 team in the Pac-10 get the respect it will deserve? As for who those teams will be, here's one: Oregon. Got to move on to No. 9 now.
9. No coach will be fired at season's end: Many pundits have dumped Arizona State's Dennis Erickson and Washington State's Paul Wulff onto the hot seat. I think both return for the 2011 season for a couple of reasons. 1. Their teams will improve enough that boosters and administrators will sense an upward trajectory; 2. In this economy, buying out a contract, even if it's not huge, is not advisable, unless your athletic department is awash in cash. Neither ASU nor WSU are.
10. The Pac-10 blog will be wrong about something: No, really. At some point this season, I will type a prediction and it will wrong. Of course, I'm being serious. Look it's happened before. Four times.
1. No team will go undefeated in conference play: You may have heard this: The Pac-10 is deep with good teams but appears to lack a dominant team. It would be a fairly substantial surprise if the Pac-10 champion goes 9-0 in conference play. It's more likely the champ will win a tiebreaker with a couple of other two-loss teams.
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Jesse Beals/Icon SMIJake Locker could be one of several Pac-10 players with a shot at the Heisman Trophy.
Jesse Beals/Icon SMIJake Locker could be one of several Pac-10 players with a shot at the Heisman Trophy.3. The Pac-10 will go 23-8 in nonconference games: UCLA is not going to beat Texas. Arizona State's chances at Wisconsin aren't good. Arizona and Washington will be underdogs at home vs. Iowa and Nebraska, respectively. Oregon should handle Tennessee. Oregon State is going to beat either TCU or Boise State. I feel pretty good about California's chances against UC Davis. USC won't lose a nonconference game because no team outside of the Pac-10 can beat USC (it hasn't happened in the regular season since 2002). I'm not going to write a phrase about 31 games, but you can feel free to do so below.
4. Chip Kelly will provide a brief answer to many, many questions: Chip, are you worried about your QB making his second career start in front of 105,000 at Neyland Stadium? "No." Coach, tell us about your recruiting philosophy? "Speed." What are your feelings on LaMichael James' 229 yards rushing? "Good." Coach, I bet my sister I could get you to say two words. "Lose." Coach, you just won Pac-10 coach of the year for the second time in two years as Oregon's coach? "Thanks."
5. Arizona DEs Ricky Elmore and Brooks Reed will combine for 18 sacks: The qualifier is both staying healthy all season, but this is the best pair of defensive ends in the Pac-10. When you scan the offensive lines in the conference, there aren't a whole lot of teams that will match them with equally capable tackles.
6. Lane Kiffin will order a turkey sandwich; controversy will ensue: Who does he think he is ordering a turkey sandwich in this economy? Turkey? He's not qualified to eat turkey! The Pilgrims ate turkey for golly-gosh sakes, and Kiffin is no Pilgrim. Isn't ordering a turkey sandwich a secondary NCAA rules violation? He hasn't earned that turkey sandwich! He didn't order a turkey sandwich: He called the counter guy a turkey and starting ordering him around. What actually happened: He got a recruiting hostess to order the turkey sandwich for him, which sounds corrupt even if it isn't. Oh, sure, Lane: That's your dream turkey sandwich, right! We have just as good turkey back here in Knoxville, I'll have you know. Did you hear: He falsely accused the turkey of being ham!
7. Arizona State's offense will be better -- and its defense worse -- than most folks think: The Sun Devils have better talent at the skill positions than many think and the offensive line -- if it can stay healthy and jell -- will be at least adequate, as will QB Steven Threet. This unit could average 25-26 or so points a game. Meanwhile, the defensive line depth has taken a couple of hits of late and, despite talent at all three levels, the fact remains that seven starters from last year's strong crew are gone.
8. Five teams will end up ranked in the final AP poll: Or at least they will deserve to be. The question will be will a 9-4 team in the Pac-10 get the respect it will deserve? As for who those teams will be, here's one: Oregon. Got to move on to No. 9 now.
9. No coach will be fired at season's end: Many pundits have dumped Arizona State's Dennis Erickson and Washington State's Paul Wulff onto the hot seat. I think both return for the 2011 season for a couple of reasons. 1. Their teams will improve enough that boosters and administrators will sense an upward trajectory; 2. In this economy, buying out a contract, even if it's not huge, is not advisable, unless your athletic department is awash in cash. Neither ASU nor WSU are.
10. The Pac-10 blog will be wrong about something: No, really. At some point this season, I will type a prediction and it will wrong. Of course, I'm being serious. Look it's happened before. Four times.
Big East fearless predictions for 2010
August, 30, 2010
8/30/10
10:36
AM ET
By
Brian Bennett | ESPN.com
Fortune favors the bold.
Or at least that's what I tell myself when my preseason predictions invariably turn out wrong. I'm still waiting for my fortune.
Still, if you're going to try to divine (not Devine) the future, you might as well go big and bold. Here are 10 fearless predictions for the 2010 Big East season:
1. Noel Devine will go to New York for the Heisman ceremony: The West Virginia senior will have a career year, and his highlight runs in big games will ensure that he becomes a Heisman Trophy finalist.
2. Zach Collaros will break the Big East's single-season yardage record: We're basically talking 4,000 yards here -- Louisville's Brian Brohm compiled 3,978 yards in 2007. So that's a huge number, and Collaros will have to average more than 300 yards a game over the course of 13 contests. But Central Michigan's Dan LeFevour went over 4,000 twice when Butch Jones was his coach. Collaros averaged 356 total yards in four starts a year ago and has a plethora of weapons; plus, Cincinnati might have to win some shootouts.
3. UConn will win at least nine games -- in Randy Edsall's last season: In no way is Edsall scrambling to leave UConn. He's been there for a decade, has some of the finest facilities anywhere and is in total control of his program. But he's also a hot commodity in the coaching business, and his already high respect level soared with the way he handled the Jasper Howard tragedy last year. Some blue-chip program will make Edsall an offer he can't refuse this offseason.
4. The league will score three big nonconference victories: And those three will be: UConn over Michigan in Week 1; Pitt over Miami on Sept. 23; and West Virginia in the biggest upset at LSU on Sept. 25.
5. The Pitt-West Virginia winner will be in the BCS title chase: In three of the past four years, the Big East champion has been in the thick of the national title hunt in November or beyond. That trend continues this year, and Pittsburgh and West Virginia are the two most likely teams to carry that mantle, given its schedules and returning talent. If the Mountaineers do beat LSU, watch out. Similarly, even if Pitt loses early, the Panthers will have a chance to get back in the race.
6. The Big East will have to wait until 2011 to experience the Champs Sports Bowl: The league's new No. 2 bowl spot has the option of taking Notre Dame once in the next four years. That once will be this year, as the Irish finish between seven and nine wins, and the bowl eagerly snaps them up. Remember the Gator and Sun Bowls had a chance to take Notre Dame twice in a four-year span and never did because Notre Dame couldn't qualify. The Champs people know this and won't let the opportunity pass them by. That means a Big East team could win 10 or 11 games, finish second in the league and still end up in Charlotte for the Meineke Car Care Bowl.
7. Syracuse will challenge for a bowl bid: The Orange haven't made the postseason since going 6-6 in 2004. They'll have a chance this year. They should be no worse than 3-1 to start the year, with Akron, Maine and Colgate on the schedule. If Syracuse can find just two wins elsewhere, it will go into the regular season finale at home against Boston College for a chance to break even. Playing two FCS teams means that 6-6 guarantees nothing; but with so many bowl spots open, long-suffering Orange fans will have hope.
8. South Florida will struggle to make a bowl: With games at Florida, at Miami, at Cincinnati and at West Virginia, the Bulls don't have much room for error in 2010. They'll still make a bowl game at 7-5, but bigger things will be on the horizon once Skip Holtz establishes his program.
9. Rutgers will play in the first New Era Pinstripe Bowl: OK, this isn't that bold. If Rutgers is available -- and with Norfolk State, FIU, Army and Tulane on the schedule, bowl eligibility is all but inevitable -- the Scarlet Knights are the logical choice to play the first-ever bowl game in new Yankee Stadium.
10. Rutgers and Pittsburgh will be invited to the Big Ten in January: Well, I said I was going bold.
Or at least that's what I tell myself when my preseason predictions invariably turn out wrong. I'm still waiting for my fortune.
Still, if you're going to try to divine (not Devine) the future, you might as well go big and bold. Here are 10 fearless predictions for the 2010 Big East season:
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Ken McKimm/Icon SMIWest Virginia running back Noel Devine will have a career year and be a Heisman finalist, Big East blogger Brian Bennett boldly predicts.
Ken McKimm/Icon SMIWest Virginia running back Noel Devine will have a career year and be a Heisman finalist, Big East blogger Brian Bennett boldly predicts.2. Zach Collaros will break the Big East's single-season yardage record: We're basically talking 4,000 yards here -- Louisville's Brian Brohm compiled 3,978 yards in 2007. So that's a huge number, and Collaros will have to average more than 300 yards a game over the course of 13 contests. But Central Michigan's Dan LeFevour went over 4,000 twice when Butch Jones was his coach. Collaros averaged 356 total yards in four starts a year ago and has a plethora of weapons; plus, Cincinnati might have to win some shootouts.
3. UConn will win at least nine games -- in Randy Edsall's last season: In no way is Edsall scrambling to leave UConn. He's been there for a decade, has some of the finest facilities anywhere and is in total control of his program. But he's also a hot commodity in the coaching business, and his already high respect level soared with the way he handled the Jasper Howard tragedy last year. Some blue-chip program will make Edsall an offer he can't refuse this offseason.
4. The league will score three big nonconference victories: And those three will be: UConn over Michigan in Week 1; Pitt over Miami on Sept. 23; and West Virginia in the biggest upset at LSU on Sept. 25.
5. The Pitt-West Virginia winner will be in the BCS title chase: In three of the past four years, the Big East champion has been in the thick of the national title hunt in November or beyond. That trend continues this year, and Pittsburgh and West Virginia are the two most likely teams to carry that mantle, given its schedules and returning talent. If the Mountaineers do beat LSU, watch out. Similarly, even if Pitt loses early, the Panthers will have a chance to get back in the race.
6. The Big East will have to wait until 2011 to experience the Champs Sports Bowl: The league's new No. 2 bowl spot has the option of taking Notre Dame once in the next four years. That once will be this year, as the Irish finish between seven and nine wins, and the bowl eagerly snaps them up. Remember the Gator and Sun Bowls had a chance to take Notre Dame twice in a four-year span and never did because Notre Dame couldn't qualify. The Champs people know this and won't let the opportunity pass them by. That means a Big East team could win 10 or 11 games, finish second in the league and still end up in Charlotte for the Meineke Car Care Bowl.
7. Syracuse will challenge for a bowl bid: The Orange haven't made the postseason since going 6-6 in 2004. They'll have a chance this year. They should be no worse than 3-1 to start the year, with Akron, Maine and Colgate on the schedule. If Syracuse can find just two wins elsewhere, it will go into the regular season finale at home against Boston College for a chance to break even. Playing two FCS teams means that 6-6 guarantees nothing; but with so many bowl spots open, long-suffering Orange fans will have hope.
8. South Florida will struggle to make a bowl: With games at Florida, at Miami, at Cincinnati and at West Virginia, the Bulls don't have much room for error in 2010. They'll still make a bowl game at 7-5, but bigger things will be on the horizon once Skip Holtz establishes his program.
9. Rutgers will play in the first New Era Pinstripe Bowl: OK, this isn't that bold. If Rutgers is available -- and with Norfolk State, FIU, Army and Tulane on the schedule, bowl eligibility is all but inevitable -- the Scarlet Knights are the logical choice to play the first-ever bowl game in new Yankee Stadium.
10. Rutgers and Pittsburgh will be invited to the Big Ten in January: Well, I said I was going bold.
Fearless predictions in the Big Ten
August, 30, 2010
8/30/10
10:35
AM ET
By
Adam Rittenberg | ESPN.com
You've already sampled the standard fare for Big Ten predictions this fall. Now it's time for the fun part.
Here are 10 fearless predictions in the Big Ten, which kicks off the 2010 season Thursday night!
1. The Big Ten faces Nebraska in a BCS bowl: Ohio State will get back to the national title game for the first time in three years. Because of the new Rose Bowl rule, a non-AQ team heads to Pasadena, but the Big Ten gets an at-large BCS berth for the sixth consecutive season. Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn State or Michigan State heads to the Fiesta Bowl to face Big 12 champion and soon-to-be Big Ten member Nebraska on New Year's Day.
2. The Game changes dates: I really hope I'm wrong on this one, but too many signs point to the Ohio State-Michigan game moving up on the schedule beginning in 2011. Perhaps the Big Ten bigwigs listen to their fans, but the potential for an Ohio State-Michigan clash in the Big Ten championship game could be too valuable ($$$) to pass up. My bet is on the Buckeyes and Wolverines ending up in different divisions when the alignment comes out.
3. Joe Paterno secures career win No. 400 against Michigan: I don't see Penn State beating Alabama or Iowa on the road, but the Lions take a 5-2 mark into the Michigan game on Oct. 30 and beat the Wolverines for the third consecutive season. Another possibility is the Oct. 23 game at Minnesota. Paterno enters the fall with a record 394 career victories.
4. Michigan and Penn State both play three quarterbacks: Not an overly fearless pick here, but I expect two gifted true freshmen, Penn State's Robert Bolden and Michigan's Devin Gardner, to see the field this fall. Penn State will want to evaluate more than one quarterback in a game setting, and it's rare when a quarterback playing in a spread offense like Rich Rodriguez's lasts the entire season without injury. Denard Robinson likely starts the opener, but Gardner and Tate Forcier also will play at some point.
5. Michigan State's Greg Jones records two interceptions: Jones has done everything but intercept a pass in his first three seasons at Michigan State. Things change this fall, as the linebacker becomes a bigger factor in coverage and records a pair of picks to earn consensus All-America honors for the second consecutive year.
6. MarQueis Gray leads Minnesota in receiving: After competing with Adam Weber for the Gophers' starting quarterback job this spring, Gray becomes Weber's top target in the passing game. He catches on quickly at receiver and uses his size and good hands to become a reliable possession option.
7. Bill Lynch chucks his chewing gum against Michigan again: Once again, a bad call in the Michigan game on Oct. 2 will bring Howard Beale out of the normally subdued Lynch. Maybe it's a touchdown called back on a phantom holding penalty, or a fumble that never was, but Lynch's gum surely will take flight.
8. The Big Ten has at least one forced and one unforced coaching change: Several Big Ten coaches enter the season on the hot seat, including Michigan's Rodriguez, Illinois' Ron Zook, Minnesota's Tim Brewster and, to a lesser extent, Indiana's Lynch. Someone gets pink-slipped in November or December. Will this be Paterno's final season at Penn State? A lot of people think it will be. Also, if Ohio State wins a national title, it wouldn't be totally shocking to see Jim Tressel move on.
9. Purdue, Michigan State and Northwestern all pull off upsets: Michigan State should be an improved team and has three opportunities for upsets against Wisconsin (Oct. 2 at home), Iowa (Oct. 30 on the road) and Penn State (Nov. 27). The Spartans win at least one of those games. Purdue could be a dangerous team by the time Wisconsin visits on Nov. 6. Northwestern pulls off an upset every season and could get Iowa again (Nov. 13) or Penn State (Oct. 30).
10. Evan Royster and Derrell Johnson-Koulianos will set team records against ... Royster, the Penn State senior running back, gets a steady diet of carries early in the season and breaks Curt Warner's team career rushing record against Illinois on Oct. 9. Johnson-Koulianos, the Iowa senior receiver, needs 401 yards for the Iowa receiving record and gets it Oct. 30 against Michigan State.
Here are 10 fearless predictions in the Big Ten, which kicks off the 2010 season Thursday night!
1. The Big Ten faces Nebraska in a BCS bowl: Ohio State will get back to the national title game for the first time in three years. Because of the new Rose Bowl rule, a non-AQ team heads to Pasadena, but the Big Ten gets an at-large BCS berth for the sixth consecutive season. Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn State or Michigan State heads to the Fiesta Bowl to face Big 12 champion and soon-to-be Big Ten member Nebraska on New Year's Day.
2. The Game changes dates: I really hope I'm wrong on this one, but too many signs point to the Ohio State-Michigan game moving up on the schedule beginning in 2011. Perhaps the Big Ten bigwigs listen to their fans, but the potential for an Ohio State-Michigan clash in the Big Ten championship game could be too valuable ($$$) to pass up. My bet is on the Buckeyes and Wolverines ending up in different divisions when the alignment comes out.
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AP Photo/M. Spencer GreenJoe Paterno's 400th win will come against Michigan.
AP Photo/M. Spencer GreenJoe Paterno's 400th win will come against Michigan.4. Michigan and Penn State both play three quarterbacks: Not an overly fearless pick here, but I expect two gifted true freshmen, Penn State's Robert Bolden and Michigan's Devin Gardner, to see the field this fall. Penn State will want to evaluate more than one quarterback in a game setting, and it's rare when a quarterback playing in a spread offense like Rich Rodriguez's lasts the entire season without injury. Denard Robinson likely starts the opener, but Gardner and Tate Forcier also will play at some point.
5. Michigan State's Greg Jones records two interceptions: Jones has done everything but intercept a pass in his first three seasons at Michigan State. Things change this fall, as the linebacker becomes a bigger factor in coverage and records a pair of picks to earn consensus All-America honors for the second consecutive year.
6. MarQueis Gray leads Minnesota in receiving: After competing with Adam Weber for the Gophers' starting quarterback job this spring, Gray becomes Weber's top target in the passing game. He catches on quickly at receiver and uses his size and good hands to become a reliable possession option.
7. Bill Lynch chucks his chewing gum against Michigan again: Once again, a bad call in the Michigan game on Oct. 2 will bring Howard Beale out of the normally subdued Lynch. Maybe it's a touchdown called back on a phantom holding penalty, or a fumble that never was, but Lynch's gum surely will take flight.
8. The Big Ten has at least one forced and one unforced coaching change: Several Big Ten coaches enter the season on the hot seat, including Michigan's Rodriguez, Illinois' Ron Zook, Minnesota's Tim Brewster and, to a lesser extent, Indiana's Lynch. Someone gets pink-slipped in November or December. Will this be Paterno's final season at Penn State? A lot of people think it will be. Also, if Ohio State wins a national title, it wouldn't be totally shocking to see Jim Tressel move on.
9. Purdue, Michigan State and Northwestern all pull off upsets: Michigan State should be an improved team and has three opportunities for upsets against Wisconsin (Oct. 2 at home), Iowa (Oct. 30 on the road) and Penn State (Nov. 27). The Spartans win at least one of those games. Purdue could be a dangerous team by the time Wisconsin visits on Nov. 6. Northwestern pulls off an upset every season and could get Iowa again (Nov. 13) or Penn State (Oct. 30).
10. Evan Royster and Derrell Johnson-Koulianos will set team records against ... Royster, the Penn State senior running back, gets a steady diet of carries early in the season and breaks Curt Warner's team career rushing record against Illinois on Oct. 9. Johnson-Koulianos, the Iowa senior receiver, needs 401 yards for the Iowa receiving record and gets it Oct. 30 against Michigan State.
Let's be clear about this: Would I bet on any of these things? Maybe some of them. Definitely not all of them.
But there are limbs that need to be stepped out onto. I'm here to oblige. Let's swing for the fences on some predictions for 2010, and maybe have some fun on the way out of the ballpark.
1. Oklahoma and Texas will play in another BCS bowl. Nebraska will be relegated to the Cotton Bowl. Whoever doesn't win the South will still have at least 10 wins and be ranked in the top 10. Nebraska won't be able to reach a BCS bowl without beating Oklahoma or Texas in Dallas. The second-place South team will slide in over the Big 12 runner-up Huskers.
2. Texas will throw the ball 35 times against Oklahoma. The Longhorns' commitment to the running game may make it past Texas Tech. It should make it past UCLA. It won't make it past the first quarter against Oklahoma's stout front seven. Texas may recommit to the downhill game in the weeks that follow, but running the ball 35 times at 2.5 yards per carry is a recipe for a Red River loss.
3. Baylor will make -- and win -- a bowl game. The schedule sets up nicely for the Bears to reach a bowl game without needing a massive upset. A 3-1 record in nonconference is awesome, but they'll have to beat Kansas and Colorado to set up a make-or-break game against Kansas State on Oct. 23. Lose that, and they'll need a win in Stillwater or a home upset against Texas A&M to notch their sixth win. Bears fans will flock to the Dallas Football Classic at the Cotton Bowl, where Michigan's Rich Rodriguez offers Robert Griffin a spot on his team after the Bears knock off the Wolverines. Griffin declines.
4. Missouri's Aldon Smith will lead the league in sacks. The scariest part? He'll keep getting better into 2011.
5. Daniel Thomas will win his second Big 12 rushing title in two years. Alexander Robinson has to face four teams with fearsome front fours. Roy Helu Jr. will split carries with Rex Burkhead. The same at Texas A&M. Kendall Hunter will be busy catching balls as much as he's carrying them. And I'll believe DeMarco Murray can handle a 275-carry load when I see it.
6. Kansas will finish as the Big 12's most improved team in November. They won't win either game, but they'll put a major, major scare into Nebraska or Missouri in one of the season's last three weeks.
7. Texas will lead the league in scoring defense, outdoing Oklahoma and Nebraska. They'll need big years out of defensive tackle Kheeston Randall and safety Christian Scott to do it. Both will deliver.
8. Brandon Weeden will lead the league in completion percentage. He'll be comfortable enough after three warmup games in Stillwater to start the season as the league's second-leading passer behind Jerrod Johnson through three weeks. His yardage and touchdowns will slip a bit as conference play hits, but he'll make smart decisions and give his receivers plenty of YAC opportunities.
9. Iowa State will be better than Kansas and Colorado. They will have a worse record overall and in conference. The schedule will get the best of the Cyclones in 2010. Jerome Tiller should be ready to fill in after Austen Arnaud in 2011, and with Paul Rhoads, the future looks bright in Ames.
10. Texas Tech will be in the top third of the league in turnover differential. They will be in the bottom third in scoring defense. How will that manifest itself in the win column? I have no idea. That's why we play the games, folks.
But there are limbs that need to be stepped out onto. I'm here to oblige. Let's swing for the fences on some predictions for 2010, and maybe have some fun on the way out of the ballpark.
1. Oklahoma and Texas will play in another BCS bowl. Nebraska will be relegated to the Cotton Bowl. Whoever doesn't win the South will still have at least 10 wins and be ranked in the top 10. Nebraska won't be able to reach a BCS bowl without beating Oklahoma or Texas in Dallas. The second-place South team will slide in over the Big 12 runner-up Huskers.
2. Texas will throw the ball 35 times against Oklahoma. The Longhorns' commitment to the running game may make it past Texas Tech. It should make it past UCLA. It won't make it past the first quarter against Oklahoma's stout front seven. Texas may recommit to the downhill game in the weeks that follow, but running the ball 35 times at 2.5 yards per carry is a recipe for a Red River loss.
3. Baylor will make -- and win -- a bowl game. The schedule sets up nicely for the Bears to reach a bowl game without needing a massive upset. A 3-1 record in nonconference is awesome, but they'll have to beat Kansas and Colorado to set up a make-or-break game against Kansas State on Oct. 23. Lose that, and they'll need a win in Stillwater or a home upset against Texas A&M to notch their sixth win. Bears fans will flock to the Dallas Football Classic at the Cotton Bowl, where Michigan's Rich Rodriguez offers Robert Griffin a spot on his team after the Bears knock off the Wolverines. Griffin declines.
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Jeff Moffett/Icon SMIMissouri defensive end Aldon Smith could lead the Big 12 in sacks.
Jeff Moffett/Icon SMIMissouri defensive end Aldon Smith could lead the Big 12 in sacks.5. Daniel Thomas will win his second Big 12 rushing title in two years. Alexander Robinson has to face four teams with fearsome front fours. Roy Helu Jr. will split carries with Rex Burkhead. The same at Texas A&M. Kendall Hunter will be busy catching balls as much as he's carrying them. And I'll believe DeMarco Murray can handle a 275-carry load when I see it.
6. Kansas will finish as the Big 12's most improved team in November. They won't win either game, but they'll put a major, major scare into Nebraska or Missouri in one of the season's last three weeks.
7. Texas will lead the league in scoring defense, outdoing Oklahoma and Nebraska. They'll need big years out of defensive tackle Kheeston Randall and safety Christian Scott to do it. Both will deliver.
8. Brandon Weeden will lead the league in completion percentage. He'll be comfortable enough after three warmup games in Stillwater to start the season as the league's second-leading passer behind Jerrod Johnson through three weeks. His yardage and touchdowns will slip a bit as conference play hits, but he'll make smart decisions and give his receivers plenty of YAC opportunities.
9. Iowa State will be better than Kansas and Colorado. They will have a worse record overall and in conference. The schedule will get the best of the Cyclones in 2010. Jerome Tiller should be ready to fill in after Austen Arnaud in 2011, and with Paul Rhoads, the future looks bright in Ames.
10. Texas Tech will be in the top third of the league in turnover differential. They will be in the bottom third in scoring defense. How will that manifest itself in the win column? I have no idea. That's why we play the games, folks.
The ACC is one of the most unpredictable conferences in the country, but that makes this list even more fun. Here are 10 things I think will -- or won’t -- happen in the conference this fall:
1. BC linebacker Mark Herzlich plays in the season opener against Weber State and is back to his 2008 form in time for the home game against Virginia Tech on Sept. 25.
2. Running backs Darren Evans, Ryan Williams and backup quarterback Logan Thomas are all on the field at the same time. Why not? They’ve got the talent, may as well use it.
3. The ACC goes 3-4 against the SEC with wins over South Carolina, Georgia and Vanderbilt. Yes, this prediction has changed since earlier this summer when I thought North Carolina would beat LSU.
4. Maryland coach Ralph Friedgen gets to a bowl game, but it's not enough to save his job. A new athletic director is hired and demands more than, say, a win over Nevada in the Humanitarian Bowl.
5. Virginia’s seniors win their first home opener. It’s something they haven’t done yet, but first-year coach Mike London will have them ready for his former team, Richmond.
6. Duke upsets North Carolina in the season finale, which is at Wallace Wade. Hey, they’re fearless predictions, remember? If UNC’s season unravels thanks to all of the outside distractions, don’t count it out.
7. The ACC enters 2010 with five 1,000-yard rushers and finishes the season with three -- Anthony Allen, Da’Rel Scott and Montel Harris. Darren Evans and Ryan Williams will be splitting the carries, and Joshua Nesbitt will throw it more. Everyone else has too much depth for one player to reach the 1,000-yard mark.
8. Butch Davis feels the heat. It would be surprising if UNC escapes sanctions from both the NCAA and the university for two separate investigations. Although athletic and academic officials have publicly stood behind Davis, the repercussions could be too much for Davis to retain his job much longer -- especially if the Tar Heels fail to win another bowl game.
9. Jimbo Fisher carries on the Wide Right tradition. Maybe it will happen against Miami. Maybe Florida. Maybe in the ACC championship game. But at some point this season, he’ll feel the pain of those before him thanks to a missed field goal.
10. Virginia Tech earns its seventh straight 10-win season, but none of them include any titles. The November stretch against three of the top teams in their division is what will doom the Hokies -- not Boise State.
1. BC linebacker Mark Herzlich plays in the season opener against Weber State and is back to his 2008 form in time for the home game against Virginia Tech on Sept. 25.
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Paul Abell/US PresswireRalph Friedgen will not be able to save his job.
Paul Abell/US PresswireRalph Friedgen will not be able to save his job.3. The ACC goes 3-4 against the SEC with wins over South Carolina, Georgia and Vanderbilt. Yes, this prediction has changed since earlier this summer when I thought North Carolina would beat LSU.
4. Maryland coach Ralph Friedgen gets to a bowl game, but it's not enough to save his job. A new athletic director is hired and demands more than, say, a win over Nevada in the Humanitarian Bowl.
5. Virginia’s seniors win their first home opener. It’s something they haven’t done yet, but first-year coach Mike London will have them ready for his former team, Richmond.
6. Duke upsets North Carolina in the season finale, which is at Wallace Wade. Hey, they’re fearless predictions, remember? If UNC’s season unravels thanks to all of the outside distractions, don’t count it out.
7. The ACC enters 2010 with five 1,000-yard rushers and finishes the season with three -- Anthony Allen, Da’Rel Scott and Montel Harris. Darren Evans and Ryan Williams will be splitting the carries, and Joshua Nesbitt will throw it more. Everyone else has too much depth for one player to reach the 1,000-yard mark.
8. Butch Davis feels the heat. It would be surprising if UNC escapes sanctions from both the NCAA and the university for two separate investigations. Although athletic and academic officials have publicly stood behind Davis, the repercussions could be too much for Davis to retain his job much longer -- especially if the Tar Heels fail to win another bowl game.
9. Jimbo Fisher carries on the Wide Right tradition. Maybe it will happen against Miami. Maybe Florida. Maybe in the ACC championship game. But at some point this season, he’ll feel the pain of those before him thanks to a missed field goal.
10. Virginia Tech earns its seventh straight 10-win season, but none of them include any titles. The November stretch against three of the top teams in their division is what will doom the Hokies -- not Boise State.
Fearless non-AQ season predictions
August, 30, 2010
8/30/10
10:30
AM ET
By
Andrea Adelson | ESPN.com
My crystal ball is out, and my Magic 8-ball is handy just in case. Now let us take a look at some fearless non-AQ predictions for the 2010 season:
1. Who loses first, Boise State or TCU?
The top non-AQ teams are targeting not only a BCS berth but a chance to play for an unprecedented national championship this season. The Broncos open with the way more difficult game, against No. 10 Virginia Tech, but TCU will have its hands full with Oregon State (though in much friendlier confines at Cowboys Stadium). I project both teams to go undefeated, so maybe this was not such a great question.
2. How many times will people call Case Keenum a “system quarterback?”
How many breaths do we take in a day? OK, maybe that is an exaggeration, but Keenum and system quarterback may as well be interchangeable this season because you can bet nobody is going to describe him any other way.
3. Who will finish higher in Heisman voting: Kellen Moore or Keenum?
If last season is any indication, the answer is Moore, especially if system QB Keenum keeps being discounted because of his heavy passing numbers.
4. Will there be a more creative argument against Boise State than deriding its conference schedule?
Nope. The same old, same old weak sisters of the poor argument has already been hashed and rehashed during the offseason. If Boise State beats Virginia Tech, prepare for more rehashing as the season goes on.
5. How long will it take before BYU decides on one quarterback?
Coach Bronco Mendenhall does not seem to be in much of a hurry to figure that out, having announced last week he would play Jake Heaps and Riley Nelson in the opener against Washington. But two-quarterback systems have proven to be difficult to maintain. With a brutal opening stretch, Mendenhall might want to keep it going, but Heaps should be the eventual starter come the heart of the Mountain West conference schedule.
6. Will Ricky Dobbs of Navy break his own NCAA record for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback?
Dobbs broke Tim Tebow’s record in 2009 with 27 rushing TDs -- despite missing time because of a knee injury. If Dobbs stays healthy, bet on him to get at least 30 rushing TDs this season.
7. How long before Kent State is referred to as the Temple of the 2010 season?
Hopes are high for the Golden Flashes, even though they have been through many, many years of football futility. The last time they had a winning season was 1987, but with 15 starters returning, that could change this year. Linebacker Cobrani Mixon is one of the best in the MAC and so is wide receiver Tyshon Goode.
8. Will Middle Tennessee quarterback Dwight Dasher play this season?
The NCAA doesn’t take too kindly to anybody violating rules. If the NCAA wants to send a no-tolerance message, then he won’t be back this season, especially since he allegedly took the $1,500 loan to gamble.
9. When will Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch decry the BCS again?
Right around October, when the BCS standings are released for the first time. Hatch has vowed to keep up his fight against the BCS, even though Utah will join the Pac-10 next season. But fans seem to be growing weary of government involvement in sports.
10. Who is the hottest coach among the non-AQs?
Gary Patterson and Chris Petersen have done good work at their respective schools. But Temple coach Al Golden is the hottest non-AQ coach. He already interviewed at Tennessee and Notre Dame last season. A contract extension won’t keep him from interviewing or even leaving -- maybe even a big, big school in Pennsylvania should its coach decide to retire.
1. Who loses first, Boise State or TCU?
The top non-AQ teams are targeting not only a BCS berth but a chance to play for an unprecedented national championship this season. The Broncos open with the way more difficult game, against No. 10 Virginia Tech, but TCU will have its hands full with Oregon State (though in much friendlier confines at Cowboys Stadium). I project both teams to go undefeated, so maybe this was not such a great question.
2. How many times will people call Case Keenum a “system quarterback?”
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Steve Conner/Icon SMIA fast start should keep Kellen Moore in the Heisman Trophy conversation.
Steve Conner/Icon SMIA fast start should keep Kellen Moore in the Heisman Trophy conversation.3. Who will finish higher in Heisman voting: Kellen Moore or Keenum?
If last season is any indication, the answer is Moore, especially if system QB Keenum keeps being discounted because of his heavy passing numbers.
4. Will there be a more creative argument against Boise State than deriding its conference schedule?
Nope. The same old, same old weak sisters of the poor argument has already been hashed and rehashed during the offseason. If Boise State beats Virginia Tech, prepare for more rehashing as the season goes on.
5. How long will it take before BYU decides on one quarterback?
Coach Bronco Mendenhall does not seem to be in much of a hurry to figure that out, having announced last week he would play Jake Heaps and Riley Nelson in the opener against Washington. But two-quarterback systems have proven to be difficult to maintain. With a brutal opening stretch, Mendenhall might want to keep it going, but Heaps should be the eventual starter come the heart of the Mountain West conference schedule.
6. Will Ricky Dobbs of Navy break his own NCAA record for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback?
Dobbs broke Tim Tebow’s record in 2009 with 27 rushing TDs -- despite missing time because of a knee injury. If Dobbs stays healthy, bet on him to get at least 30 rushing TDs this season.
7. How long before Kent State is referred to as the Temple of the 2010 season?
Hopes are high for the Golden Flashes, even though they have been through many, many years of football futility. The last time they had a winning season was 1987, but with 15 starters returning, that could change this year. Linebacker Cobrani Mixon is one of the best in the MAC and so is wide receiver Tyshon Goode.
8. Will Middle Tennessee quarterback Dwight Dasher play this season?
The NCAA doesn’t take too kindly to anybody violating rules. If the NCAA wants to send a no-tolerance message, then he won’t be back this season, especially since he allegedly took the $1,500 loan to gamble.
9. When will Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch decry the BCS again?
Right around October, when the BCS standings are released for the first time. Hatch has vowed to keep up his fight against the BCS, even though Utah will join the Pac-10 next season. But fans seem to be growing weary of government involvement in sports.
10. Who is the hottest coach among the non-AQs?
Gary Patterson and Chris Petersen have done good work at their respective schools. But Temple coach Al Golden is the hottest non-AQ coach. He already interviewed at Tennessee and Notre Dame last season. A contract extension won’t keep him from interviewing or even leaving -- maybe even a big, big school in Pennsylvania should its coach decide to retire.
Notre Dame fearless predictions for 2010
August, 30, 2010
8/30/10
10:27
AM ET
By
Brian Bennett | ESPN.com
What lies in store for Notre Dame in 2010? Here are three fearless predictions:
1. The Irish will win at least eight games: There are four games on the schedule where Notre Dame figures to be a heavy favorite: Western Michigan, Navy, Tulsa and Army (and Navy fans might dispute their team's inclusion on that list). Seven others are virtual toss-ups, while the Irish would be underdogs at USC if the game was held today.
So why the confidence in a team that has gone 16-21 the past three years? Simply put, it's the Brian Kelly factor. Kelly has a knack for quick turnarounds, and few would doubt this team has enough talent to go 8-4. (Seven home games and two neutral-site contests don't hurt, either.) The Irish were in every game last year while finishing 6-6. Kelly's way of doing things will be good for at least two more wins.
2. The Notre Dame defense will rank in the top 60 nationally: The Irish were 86th in total defense last year, a main reason why they couldn't save Charlie Weis' job. New defensive coordinator Bob Diaco's 3-4 scheme better suits the players, and he won't gamble on blitzes the way Jon Tenuta did. Instead, Diaco will follow the model he used last year at Cincinnati by preventing big plays and making offenses work underneath -- while they try to catch up to Kelly's quick-strike offense.
The defense won't wow anyone but will hold its own enough to allow the Irish to win games.
3. Dayne Crist will miss at least one start: The worst fear for Irish fans is that quarterback Crist will get hurt. Well, Kelly's history and the nature of college football in general suggests that it's extremely difficult to keep a quarterback healthy an entire season -- and Crist is already operating on a surgically-repaired knee.
Odds are that Notre Dame will have to win at least one game with Tommy Rees, Nate Montana or someone else under center.
1. The Irish will win at least eight games: There are four games on the schedule where Notre Dame figures to be a heavy favorite: Western Michigan, Navy, Tulsa and Army (and Navy fans might dispute their team's inclusion on that list). Seven others are virtual toss-ups, while the Irish would be underdogs at USC if the game was held today.
So why the confidence in a team that has gone 16-21 the past three years? Simply put, it's the Brian Kelly factor. Kelly has a knack for quick turnarounds, and few would doubt this team has enough talent to go 8-4. (Seven home games and two neutral-site contests don't hurt, either.) The Irish were in every game last year while finishing 6-6. Kelly's way of doing things will be good for at least two more wins.
2. The Notre Dame defense will rank in the top 60 nationally: The Irish were 86th in total defense last year, a main reason why they couldn't save Charlie Weis' job. New defensive coordinator Bob Diaco's 3-4 scheme better suits the players, and he won't gamble on blitzes the way Jon Tenuta did. Instead, Diaco will follow the model he used last year at Cincinnati by preventing big plays and making offenses work underneath -- while they try to catch up to Kelly's quick-strike offense.
The defense won't wow anyone but will hold its own enough to allow the Irish to win games.
3. Dayne Crist will miss at least one start: The worst fear for Irish fans is that quarterback Crist will get hurt. Well, Kelly's history and the nature of college football in general suggests that it's extremely difficult to keep a quarterback healthy an entire season -- and Crist is already operating on a surgically-repaired knee.
Odds are that Notre Dame will have to win at least one game with Tommy Rees, Nate Montana or someone else under center.
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