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I finally broke out of my streak of going .500 every week -- barely -- by sweeping the three conference games but whiffing on the two out-of-league contests last week. Last chance to improve my regular-season record beckons.

South Florida 27, Connecticut 24: This is my game of the week. Check my video post this afternoon for a full explanation of this pick and a breakdown of the game.

West Virginia 35, Rutgers 7: This one has the potential to get ugly as the nation's No. 3 defense takes on maybe the worst offensive line in the country. The Mountaineers have to win and then wait for a shot at the BCS; the Scarlet Knights are just waiting for this miserable season to end.

Pittsburgh 38, Cincinnati 35: This might be the who-cares bowl. Pitt still has a theoretical chance to claim the Big East's BCS bid but still must be smarting from last week's Backyard Brawl beatdown. The Bearcats have already been eliminated from bowl contention. Everybody scores at least 30 on Cincinnati, so why not a wild shootout to end two very disappointing seasons?

Last week: 3-2

Season results: 46-16 (74.2 percent)

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The Pig and the Bucket got me.

While players from Minnesota and Indiana raised rivalry trophies Saturday afternoon, my record took a dive. A 3-2 week simply isn't good enough, although my decision to switch the Michigan State-Penn State prediction paid off as the Spartans came through.

There's only one Big Ten game on the slate this week, so I had better get it right.

Illinois 34, Fresno State 28: Pat Hill doesn't have his best team this season, and the Bulldogs have dropped home games to both Nevada and Hawaii. Still, it's never easy to travel West and win, and Fresno can be a very tough place to play. Illinois knows it's going bowling, and I think a rested Illini team comes off of the open week loose and fresh and continues to build on the momentum it generated from the Wrigley Field game. No one has slowed down Illini running back Mikel Leshoure in recent weeks, and Fresno State struggled to stop him last season. The teams trade touchdowns for a while before Illinois pulls away behind Leshoure and quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase, who combine for four rushing touchdowns. Illinois secures a winning season and possibly moves up in the Big Ten bowl pecking order.

Last week: 3-2

Season record: 71-16 (.816)

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There's only one this week, so the pressure is on.

For those of you who have been following my weekly bowl projections, you know I've had Virginia Tech headed to the Orange Bowl from the beginning. That pick isn't going to change this week.

The Hokies are on a 10-game winning streak, and what will give them the edge in this game is their defense, which has been a takeaway factory in recent weeks. Virginia Tech has had 12 interceptions in the past five games. The Hokies lead the nation in turnover margin at plus-16. Virginia Tech will force quarterback Christian Ponder into one more mistake, and this time, it will cost the Noles an ACC championship.

Final score: Virginia Tech 28, Florida State 27

Upsets cost me all three games last week and I ended up 7-3 again. But hey, I nailed Akron’s first win of the season!

With a 86-48 overall record, bring on Week 14.

No. 11 Boise State 55, Utah State 10. This game could go two ways: the Broncos could sleepwalk their way through after their devastating 34-31 overtime loss last week to Nevada. Or they could absolutely dominate in their final home game of the season, to close out their stint in the WAC with a perfect home record. Betting on the latter.

No. 17 Nevada 35, Louisiana Tech 24. Nevada might suffer an emotional hangover after its big win, and Louisiana Tech is fighting for a bowl berth. The Bulldogs are at home, and with a win they become bowl eligible. Lennon Creer has been outstanding, and so has Phillip Livas. But Colin Kaepernick, Vai Taua and Rishard Matthews are going to be hard to stop for a team that allowed one-win San Jose State to score 38 last week.

No. 25 Northern Illinois 38, Miami (Ohio) 20 (Friday). The Huskies have won nine straight and are the heavy favorites headed into the MAC title game in Detroit. Meanwhile, Miami (Ohio) was the least likely team to make it this far, after going 1-11 last season. The combination of Chad Spann and Chandler Harnish is going to be too hard to stop. This offense has averaged 65 points in its last three games.

UCF 31, SMU 21. The Knights are in the Conference USA title game for the third time, while SMU is making its first appearance. UCF has the best defense in the conference, and is bigger and more physical along the line of scrimmage. That should help the Knights slow down Zach Line, who leads the league in rushing. SMU has struggled making big plays this season, and it will be tough sledding against UCF.

FIU 35, Middle Tennessee 28. The Panthers have won four straight and already clinched a share of the Sun Belt championship, while the Blue Raiders are playing for their bowl lives. A win for Middle Tennessee and they become bowl eligible. Dwight Dasher has been inconsistent, while FIU is playing with a confidence never before seen in this program.

UPSET SPECIAL: Fresno State 40, Illinois 35 (Friday). You know the Illini will be seeking revenge for what happened last season, when the Bulldogs won a wild 53-52 game after offensive lineman Devan Cunningham caught a deflected pass on a 2-point conversion with seconds left in the game. This has been a disappointing season for the Bulldogs, but three of their losses have been to AP Top 25 teams. Count on Logan Harrell and Chris Carter to be able to get pressure on Nathan Scheelhaase, and a big game from QB Ryan Colburn.

Hawaii 55, UNLV 13. The Warriors should become the sixth team in school history to win 10 games. Key stat to watch: Greg Salas needs eight receptions to break Davone Bess’ single-season record of 108 set in 2007 and 133 yards to eclipse Ashley Lelie’s single-season mark of 1,713 set in 2001. Also, can Alex Green get 300 yards rushing again?

Idaho 38, San Jose State 20. The Spartans got a huge game from Jordan La Secla last week in a loss to Louisiana Tech, but go into their season finale with just four healthy seniors available to play. The injury bug has been absolutely brutal. Idaho, meanwhile, has had a disappointing season after going to a bowl in 2009 but has more talent and depth to win.

Troy 28, FAU 17. The Owls got off to a rocky start this season, then fought their way back to near bowl eligibility before losing last week to Middle Tennessee. Though the Trojans have struggled and are having a subpar season by their standards, they have won six of their seven meetings with FAU and are playing for bowl positioning.

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The perfect weeks have been elusive this year. I've missed a single game plenty of times, but managed a perfect week just once. I thought I might have one heading into Bedlam on Saturday night, but alas, it wasn't to be. I'm pretty satisfied with my record on the season, but after a season of doing it, I should be in good position for a perfect record in 2011.

We'll see if I can manage one this week with a schedule chock full of one whole game.

Last week: 5-1 (.833)

Overall: 76-19 (.800)

Oklahoma 17, Nebraska 16. This could end up being one of the more physical games of the entire season, but Oklahoma will cash in when it reaches the red zone more than Nebraska, and two touchdowns are better than one, of course. Alex Henery shows once again why he's so valuable, as do the Blackshirts, but Oklahoma's handful of offensive weapons prove to be too much. Landry Jones doesn't have a great statistical game, but he takes care of the ball, and supplementary offensive talents like Kenny Stills and Cameron Kenney make enough plays to win. Oklahoma confuses the Huskers front seven with its Diamond package enough to move the ball with some consistency, too.

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Went 4-1 last week. Season record stands at 54-18.

Thursday

Arizona 30, Arizona State 27: Count on this one coming down to the wire in a tough, physical game. The difference? Expect the 'Zona Zoo to make a difference and turn up the heat on Sun Devils QB Brock Osweiler, who will be making his first start of the season.

Saturday

Oregon 48, Oregon State 24: The Beavers figure to put up an early fight -- and probably throw a lot at the Ducks -- but the Ducks will wear them down and finish a perfect season that will earn them a berth in the national title game.

Washington 28, Washington State 24: A Cougars upset would not surprise me, but the Huskies' late surge suggests they have enough to earn the program's first bowl since 2002.

USC 27, UCLA 20: Remember how everyone called the Oregon game USC's bowl game? This one feels more like the Trojans bowl game -- hey, it's in the Rose Bowl, after all -- which is why, even if Matt Barkley isn't ready to go or isn't 100 percent if he is, USC should prevail: It will be focused and motivated.

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At least I have the SEC championship game to redeem myself before we hit the bowl season.

I was a very disappointing 5-3 last week, missing the Alabama-Auburn, Mississippi State-Ole Miss and Vanderbilt-Wake Forest games.

I’m barely hovering above the .800 mark for the season with a 77-19 record (.802).

This is where you’re judged, though. Nobody cares that you correctly picked Florida over Appalachian State or Jacksonville State over Ole Miss … oops.

Well, you get the idea.

This is the SEC championship game, the game that will determine whether or not the league gets a shot at its fifth straight BCS national championship.

These are the games you’ve got to get right. If you don’t, you can take that .800 percentage and deposit it in the nearest trash dumpster.

Before I offer up my pick for Saturday’s game, I’d like to remind everyone that I nailed each of the past two SEC championship games, picking Alabama last year and Florida the year before.

Here’s my stab at making it three in a row:

Auburn 38, South Carolina 28: The cloud has lifted for Auburn and Cam Newton, and there won’t be any more uncertainty regarding his eligibility heading into Saturday’s game. Of course, like it’s really mattered the past couple of games. He’s been lights out since everything broke, accounting for eight touchdowns in the Tigers’ past two games. The Gamecocks will no doubt play Newton differently than they did the first time when he ran for 176 yards and three scores. For starters, they will play him more to run and won’t be dropping as many defenders into coverage. South Carolina is playing its best football right now and has the offensive playmakers (Marcus Lattimore and Alshon Jeffery) to give Auburn fits. Jeffery, in particular, had a big day in the first game. What nobody has been able to do all season is keep the Tigers’ offense off the field. They’re so explosive that they put pressure on you to score every time you have the ball, and the defense is uncanny in its ability to come up with clutch stops and turnovers when it has to in the second half. The Head Ball Coach will have his team ready, but this is an Auburn team that doesn’t flinch regardless of how many points it falls behind. It’s also an Auburn team that has Newton at quarterback. That combination has been good enough for 12 wins in a row. Why not 13 in a row?