ESPN College Football

College Football Live's panel of experts discuss the upcoming season for the LSU Tigers.

College Football Live's panel of experts discusses the upcoming season for the Crimson Tide.

In case you haven't noticed, we've got a bit of a theme going on this week -- important games in the Pac-12. Obviously, everyone is circling the Nov. 3 showdown between USC and Oregon in Los Angeles. But there are other games to enjoy along the way. So this week we're looking at games we're most excited about.

Ted Miller: I like measuring-stick games, games that perhaps reveal the talent and heart of a team, as well as, of course, where they rank in the Pac-12 pecking order. We have a perfect example Sept. 27 (a Thursday) in Seattle: Stanford's visit to Washington, which will be played in CenturyLink Field, the Seahawks' stadium.

The obvious measure of this game's importance is this: The winner steps up in the Pac-12 North Division pecking order, the loser steps back. The winner can imagine challenging Oregon for the division title, while the loser's attention likely turns to more attainable quarry. But it's more than that. For one, it's likely both teams already will have suffered a defeat. The Huskies visit LSU on Sept. 8, while Stanford hosts USC on Sept. 15. Those opponents likely will rank Nos. 1 and 2 in the nation. This game, therefore, can serve to redirect one team's early-season trajectory. It's much better to head into October with one loss than with two.

For Stanford, this is about announcing the program's health in the post-Andrew Luck Era. Beating the Huskies on the road likely would re-establish the Cardinal as a top-25 team, where, based on the schedule, they could remain all season.

But, really, the weight falls more heavily on Washington. Why? For one, Stanford has beaten the Huskies four games in a row. But that's not the biggest issue. It's not even that the three most recent games have been blowouts. It's the nature of those blowouts. Stanford has unmanned Washington during that winning streak. Huskies fans, cover your eyes. You don't want to read this. Stanford has averaged 322 yards rushing in those four victories. 322! Last year, the Cardinal set a school record with 446 yards rushing in a 65-21 victory. The Cardinal only had 278 in 2010, but, of course, the final count was 41-zip. At Husky Stadium!

It hurts to lose no matter what. And it hurts to get blown out. But for a football team to get physically manhandled ... that's humiliation. It's hard to describe the recent turn in this series any other way. The Huskies' pride is on the line. New defensive coordinator Justin Wilcox was brought in to make sure no opponent rushes for 322 yards against Washington. It will be interesting to see if he can deliver in this early conference test. Or if post-Luck Stanford keeps churning along, winning with character and cruelty.

Kevin Gemmell: I too enjoy a good measuring-stick game -- and I don't think there is a bigger one early in the season than USC's trip to Utah on Oct. 4. First, it's a Thursday night game, which means a national TV audience. It's at Rice-Eccles Stadium -- one of my favorite venues -- and the place should be going crazy.

For the sake of argument, I'm going to work off the assumption that both USC and Utah are 4-0 heading into this game. If any Hawaii, Syracuse, Stanford, Cal, Northern Colorado, Utah State, Brigham Young or Arizona State fans take exception to that argument, I know Ted would love to hear about it in his mailbag.

In terms of measuring-stick games, there is none bigger on the 2012 schedule than this one for Utah -- which is desperate to find its way into the conversation as one of the Pac-12's elite. A victory over the Trojans -- who presumably will be one of the top-ranked teams in the country (if not No. 1) on Oct. 4 -- would go a long way toward achieving that.

Both teams will be coming off a bye week, so there is a good chance they will be rested and healthy. But the Trojans have the tougher road through the first four weeks. USC will have been put through the meat grinder against two top-rated defenses in Stanford and Cal before their bye. Then they come to Salt Lake City against -- arguably -- the best defensive front in the conference.

That makes this a pretty significant measuring-stick game for the Trojans, too. Three consecutive wins over three of the top front-sevens in the Pac-12 will likely answer any questions about the Trojans' toughness. By the way, they're on the road again the following week at Washington. This is just step three in an awfully difficult four-game stretch.

USC has the stronger offense -- even Utah fans won't dispute what the Trojans bring to the table with Matt Barkley and Co.-- but Utah's defensive line is as good as it gets. And one cannot throw the ball if one's face is buried in the turf.

This projects to be a brutal, physical game with the winner taking decisive command of the Pac-12 South.

A victory for Utah would catapult the Utes into conference legitimacy and mark that they have arrived. A USC victory re-affirms its status as the team to beat in the South and will likely leave the rest of us licking our chops for Nov. 3.

1. Commissioner John Marinatto paid for his inability to keep the two constituencies of the Big East Conference on one path Monday when he submitted his resignation. Whether anyone could have kept the conference’s original basketball-oriented members and its football-playing newbies happy is a fair question. It’s no knock on Marinatto, a back-of-the-house guy, that he failed. The conference presidents made a poor decision when they promoted him, as Dana O’Neil wrote Monday, and it may be too late to fix.

2. Alabama and LSU, the teams that played for the BCS Championship -- can we say playoff finalists yet? -- had a combined 10 freshmen enroll in January in time to participate in spring ball. At Oregon, which is on the quarter system, coach Chip Kelly chose not to begin spring ball until April, when spring quarter began. Three Duck signees who didn’t finish high school in December completed their studies in time to enroll for spring quarter. It’s a wonder more coaches don’t advocate for the quarter system.

3. Nebraska assistant coach Ron Brown wrote an open letter, published by the Lincoln Journal-Star over the weekend, saying he would never punish a gay athlete in his charge. As proof, he cited the Huskers who have played for him without repercussion even as they had heterosexual sex outside of marriage. That, too, is a sin, Brown wrote. If you’re scoring at home, Brown is using fornication to defend his ability to coach. Can’t wait to see what happens next.

The Pac-12 is the conference of quarterbacks. The SEC is all about defense.

Oh, and winning national championships.

But as good as the defenses are in the SEC, what role does poor-to-middling offense play in that perception? As in, what would happen if those defenses played against a series of future NFL quarterbacks, as Pac-12 (and Big 12) defenses do?

The question before us is this: How would USC quarterback Matt Barkley do against those rough-tough SEC defenses?

Ted Miller: It’s sort of a chicken and the egg question. Are SEC defenses so good because they rarely play against A-list quarterbacks? Or do Pac-12 quarterbacks pile up eye-popping numbers because they don’t play against SEC defenses?

Is it more notable that four of the top 11 quarterbacks in the nation in terms of passing efficiency in 2011 were from the Pac-12, compared to none in the top 20 from the SEC? Or is it more important that six SEC defenses ranked in the top 17 in pass efficiency defense compared to zero for the Pac-12?

It’s hard to say. It’s likely a person’s home -- Los Angeles or Baton Rouge -- has a large influence on his or her opinion.

Pac-12 fans would be prone to point out: In 2005, LSU ranked No. 3 in the nation in passing efficiency defense. But in the Tigers' trip to Tempe that season, Arizona State’s Sam Keller completed 35 of 56 passes for 461 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in a 35-31 defeat.

Or this: LSU’s defense did a nice job against Oregon’s offense in the 2011 season opener. Of course, the Ducks scored more points on LSU than ANY OF THE OTHER 13 TEAMS LSU PLAYED.

Apologies for the caps lock. Reckless typing.

While we can all acknowledge the SEC -- at least the elite teams -- play better defense than the rest of the nation, it is also worth noting that when future first-round NFL draft picks played quarterback in the SEC, they put up good numbers, whether we’re talking about the Manning brothers, Matt Stafford or Cam Newton. And I’m sure, one day in the future --perhaps this decade! -- we’ll be able to add a name to that list.

There are some nice quartebacks in the SEC: Tyler Wilson, AJ McCarron and Aaron Murray. All three seem like they’d have a good chance of winning the backup job at USC. Maybe.

Chris Low: No way am I going to argue that Barkley wouldn't have success in the SEC.

He's a future pro and probably the front-runner to win the Heisman Trophy in 2012.

The question is: How much success would he have, and would he hit the proverbial wall going against SEC defenses on a weekly basis?

My feeling is that all quarterbacks hit that wall. Any coach will tell you (ask your buddy Lane Kiffin) that what separates SEC defenses is the speed in the front seven, particularly in the defensive line. There are fast players all over the country in college football, but the SEC has cornered the market on fast, explosive defensive linemen and pass-rushers who also have the size and strength to overpower people.

That's the difference, and that's where Barkley would notice the greatest difference.

It wasn't a banner year for quarterbacks in the SEC last season. And, yes, I realize that's an understatement. But it was a banner year for premier defensive players. That's why the first round of the NFL draft next month is going to look like an SEC who's who. As many as 10 SEC defensive players could go in the first round.

Don't sleep on the SEC's quarterback class this coming season, either. Wilson may be a future first-rounder. Murray has thrown nearly 60 touchdown passes in his first two seasons, and we all saw what McCarron did in the BCS title game against an LSU defense that was outstanding.

Barkley's a big-time talent, no question. But it's a different game when you're trying to throw from your back.

And in this league, ALL QUARTERBACKS (sorry, my caps tend to lock up, too) encounter that problem.

Ted Miller: Truth is, Wilson, Murray and McCarron are good quarterbacks who look like guys with NFL futures. Loved how McCarron handled the pressure of the title game, and Murray has Pac-12-type talent.

We're trash talking here, but if you can't acknowledge what is real, well, then it's just noise.

And the reality of this debate is this: Barkley would be more challenged on a weekly basis by SEC defenses than by Pac-12 defenses -- which I believe are underrated but still a step behind the SEC for the reasons the Inimitable Low mentioned above. If Barkley played at Vanderbilt, Mississippi State or Kentucky, he'd just be the best quarterback in the history of those programs while leading those teams to "historic" seasons. Like a third-place finish in their divisions.

Yet what makes Barkley, Barkley is not just Barkley. It's USC. It's his supporting cast. It's receivers Robert Woods and Marqise Lee, who will both have NFL careers. And two tight ends who will also. And a good offensive line, and a 1,000-yard rusher who averaged 6.9 yards per carry in 2011 (Curtis McNeal).

By the way, if you wonder where USC's true potential Achilles heel is this year, it's the defensive line. The Trojans have three A-listers -- guys who would be touted in the SEC -- but are thin thereafter. That's a problem for a team that views itself as a national title contender.

That's ultimately the rub here, too. If all goes according to plan, Barkley and USC should be in position to play for the national title. It's hard to imagine that wouldn't be against another SEC team.

Now, Chris, wouldn't it be fun if it were USC and LSU? Recall that in 2003, LSU won 1/16 of the national title when no one in the entire world thought LSU was better than USC, other than computers obviously loaded with all sorts of viruses.

Or USC-Alabama? Great history, and Saban versus Barkley & Co. would certainly attract plenty of eyeballs.

Chris Low: One of the most compelling things that could happen to college football next season would be for USC and Barkley to take their shot at an SEC defense in the money game.

Then, we could quit debating and let it play out on the field. As much as I knew that Alabama and LSU were the two best teams in the country last season, there was a part of me that wanted to see Oklahoma State against either the Alabama or LSU defense in the BCS title game.

It's the matchup we all want to see: A high-powered offense versus a suffocating defense.

Maybe that's what we'll be treated to this fall.

Of course, I go back to the 2010 national title game, and Oregon had been short-circuiting scoreboards all season long. The Ducks go up against an Auburn defense that had been opportunistic, but wasn't one of the best in the SEC that season statistically. But in that game, Auburn put the clamps on Oregon and won 22-19.

The Tigers won because the Ducks couldn't block Nick Fairley.

And that's what the Trojans would run into if they find themselves up against an SEC team next January in Miami.

It won't come down to Barkley. Sure, he'll make a few plays. He's legit. But what it will come down to is the group of guys blocking for Barkley, and that's where it always gets ugly against SEC defenses.

In the meantime, just make sure the Trojans get there. They've been known to stumble along the way, and what we're left with is a bunch of hollow chatter about what they would have done (or could have done) had they made it to the party.

We'll check the guest list in December and chat again then.

1. If you want to see Oregon or any Pac-12 team in one of the preseason “bowl” games a la Alabama-Michigan, you’ll wait a long time. To bolster the Pac-12 Networks, the league won’t play any neutral-site games unless “all video/audio rights” are given to the Pac-12 (a home-and-home neutral-site game is OK). In a league in which teams soon will play nine conference games and a Big Ten opponent, maybe no Pac-12 team is interested. But you think a USC-LSU game would draw any attention on Labor Day weekend?

2. Chris Low and David Ubben reported Wednesday on the opposition to multiyear scholarships in the SEC and at Texas, respectively. But according to Arizona athletic director Greg Byrne, the Wildcats student-athlete council, representing the supposed beneficiaries of the legislation, voted overwhelmingly against it. The reasoning – if a teammate proves to be a locker-room cancer, the Arizona student-athletes want their coaches to have the ability to remove the problem.

3. Warm weather usually means that southern schools start spring practice early. But at Texas A&M, coach Kevin Sumlin is waiting until March 31 to start spring practice because he wanted to give his strength coach, Larry Jackson, as much time as possibile to work with a team that consistently blew fourth-quarter leads last season. And at Georgia, coach Mark Richt didn’t start until this week so that the spring game would not be played on April 7, clashing with both Easter weekend and the Masters.

1. LSU fans still may be moping about the BCS Championship Game loss to Alabama. But the university’s decision to expand Tiger Stadium by nearly 7,000 seats is an indication of how successful the Tigers are. As the Baton Rouge Advocate reported, capacity at Death Valley will be a shade under 100,000. That moves LSU past Georgia and USC into seventh place in stadium size. The rich keep getting richer.

2. It makes sense that Kirk Ferentz, who had the same coordinators for all 13 seasons at Iowa, looked for a veteran assistant to run the offense. Greg Davis sat out of coaching in 2011 after parting ways with Mack Brown, for whom he worked at Texas and North Carolina. Hawkeyes fans accustomed to a potent running game may have to learn to love the quick pass into the flat. When Major Applewhite and Colt McCoy threw it, Davis always said it served the same purpose as a run.

3. If the Big East is so awful, and the Big 12 is so wonderful, how come it cost West Virginia $20 million to leave the former while Texas A&M and Missouri are paying “only” $12.4 million to leave the latter? It may be as simple as the Big East rule that called for West Virginia to remain in the league for two more seasons before it could extract itself. That doesn’t make it any less counterintuitive.

Working off of Mark Schlabach's most recent "way-too-early" top 25, Brian Fremeau looked at the top five teams on Schlabach's ranking and decided to pick apart the holes.

Topping that list are the USC Trojans.

Fremeau on the Trojans:

Generating consistency and dominance on defense needs to be the point of emphasis this spring. The Trojans forced three-and-outs on only 32 percent of opponent drives last year, the 70th-best rate in the nation. All 10 BCS bowl team defenses last season were better at getting opponent offenses off the field more quickly. (The other four teams in this article [Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma and Georgia] were much better at forcing three-and-outs, each ranked in the top 12 in this metric last season). Those extended drives were a major liability in USC's losses to Stanford and Arizona State last year -- the Trojans gave up 92 offensive points on only 26 non-garbage opponent drives.

Offensively, there isn't much to complain about other than the current vacancies at left tackle and fullback. And the defense should continue to improve under Monte Kiffin's tutelage.

Naturally, there are holes to fill -- specifically on the defensive line, where some shuffling is bound to happen in order to replace Christian Tupou, DaJohn Harris and Nick Perry. But the fact that safety T.J. McDonald decided to return -- thus giving the back seven another full year together -- bodes well for USC's defense to make more strides next season.

ESPN The Magazine and RecruitingNation compiled the past five years (2007-11) of ESPNU 150 rankings and then crowned college football's top 10 recruiting programs.

Here's how they did it:

Our methodology was simple: We re-tallied the scores following signing day and ranked the schools based on total number of ESPNU 150 recruits (there have been 900) hauled in over the last six years. Of course, like success on the field, recruiting is cyclical -- and fans of programs both on and off this list might look back on Feb. 1, 2012 as the day their team began its rise (or fall) on the trail.

Here's the top-10.

1. Florida
2. Texas
3. USC
4. Alabama
5. Florida State
6. Notre Dame
T-7. Georgia
t-7: LSU
9. Miami
T-10. Ohio State
T-10. Oklahoma

Here's what it says about USC:

Top states: California (36), Florida (six), Arizona (four)
Surprise state: Georgia (three)
Sure, the Trojans have California locked up. But USC has also signed four of Arizona's 12 ESPNU 150 prospects and Georgia's second-best preps in 2008 (WR Brice Butler of Norcross) and 2010 (WR Markeith Ambles of McDonough). In 2012, USC signed seven ESPNU 150 commits -- OT Zach Banner (Lakewood, Wash.) was the lone out-of-state recruit.

(USC actually signed three out-of-state recruits, including receiver Nelson Agholor and DT Leonard Williams, who are both from Florida).

What's clear from this list: Sometimes teams with lots of ESPNU 150 players produce on the field (Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma, Ohio State) and sometimes they do not (Florida, Texas, Florida State, Notre Dame and Miami).

Florida is 15-11 over the past two seasons, when these highly rated classes should have been peaking. Texas is 13-12 over the same span. Miami has lost fewer than six games just once since 2007. Notre Dame's best years came the past two seasons -- both 8-5. Florida State has averaged 4.8 losses since 2007. Georgia was 10-4 this season, but it was a combined 14-12 in 2009 and 2010. Ohio State probably can be forgiven its 6-7 finish this year, based on the NCAA issues and firing of coach Jim Tressel. Oklahoma's lone blip was an 8-5 campaign in 2009. USC's "downturn" came in 2009 and 2010 when the Trojans went 17-9.

Conclusions?

Well, it's possible that Florida recruiting -- as good as it is -- is overrated. Perhaps the same can be said for Texas. Or at least these four programs -- Florida, Florida State, Miami and Texas -- aren't doing the best job of evaluating their wealth of in-state talent.

Coverage from around RecruitingNation:

DawgNation
Josh Harvey-Clemons talks about why he’s a Dawg: After months of exhaustive visits and speculation, top Peach State player Josh Harvey-Clemons, the nation's No. 1 outside linebacker prospect, went with his heart and chose to sign with Georgia.

GatorNation
Florida’s NSD filled with big misses: As the ink on the letters of intent began to dry and faxes started pouring in, the hopes for a No. 1-ranked class faded.

GeauxTigerNation
Plenty to like about LSU’s class: LSU missed out on defensive end Torshiro Davis, but finished strong by signing linebacker Kwon Alexander, the No. 29 overall prospect. Les Miles considers his 2012 class, ranked No. 14 in the nation, full of talent and potential.

HornsNation
Davis commitment caps Texas' big finish: The surprise signing-day commitment of Torshiro Davis capped a big finish for the Texas Longhorns.

SoonerNation
Going national: Stoops, Norvell see positives of recruiting nationally and it pays off with an elite recruiting class.

TideNation
Tears end Landon Collins’ recruiting drama: Landon Collins, the nation’s No. 1 safety, had a wacky recruiting experience. Collins is from Louisiana and his mother, April Justin, wanted him to go to LSU. But Collins committed to Alabama earlier this month, which didn’t sit well with mom. Collins stuck with the Tide, however, and signed on Wednesday.

WeAreSC
USC happy about 2012 recruiting class: Lane Kiffin gives his views on USC's 2012 recruiting class, the first class affected by NCAA sanctions.

WolverineNation
Hoke sour on social media: The Michigan coach says he doesn’t use Facebook, Twitter or even email. No email? “If I want to talk to you, I’ll call.”

RecruitingNation
Best laid plans: On a day for celebration, there were no hats or press conferences for Jameis Winston. The nation's top quarterback, a Florida State commit, is doing signing day his own way.

A blue-chip prospect was set and ready to join the preseason 2012 favorite.

A Notre Dame recruiting class needed some juice after losing two commits in the past week.

Less than 24 hours later ... Wow.

Gunner Kiel, the nephew of former Irish quarterback Blair Kiel, is Irish-bound, the school announced Tuesday, the first day of the spring semester. And what a first day it is.

Notre Dame landed ESPNU's No. 2 quarterback and No. 20 overall prospect, and it might just have its quarterback of the future.

The roller-coaster recruitment that initially had Kiel bound for Bloomington, and then for Baton Rouge, ends with the four-star prospect enrolling in South Bend, about a four-hour drive from his hometown of Columbus, Ind.

He will have all of the spring and preseason practices to play catch-up to the duo of Tommy Rees and Andrew Hendrix while battling Everett Golson as well.

And there's more.

Cornerback Tee Shepard (Fresno, Calif./Washington Union), defensive lineman Sheldon Day (Indianapolis, Ind./Warren Central) and running back Amir Carlisle all enrolled early, too.

The former two are four-star prospects, while Carlisle comes over from rival USC.

Shepard, in particular, should allow fans to relax a little after a recruitment that kept everyone on edge.

The trio won't overshadow the addition of Kiel, who is now one of four quarterbacks battling for one spot. And while Irish fans might discover the true genius of Brian Kelly through this quarterback battle the next couple of years, he has already flexed his muscle with another late-season recruiting coup.

What were the top 10 games or moments of the 2011 season? Here's a stab at a list.

10. Colorado wins 17-14 at Utah: If the Utes had won Nov. 25, they would have won the Pac-12 South Division -- instead of UCLA -- and played at Oregon in the first Pac-12 championship game, in their first year of Pac-12 play. As it was, the Buffaloes' surprising victory ended a 24-game losing streak outside of the state of Colorado.

9. Shelly Lyons' pick-six vs. Matt Barkley: Arizona State ended an 11-game losing streak to USC on Sept. 24 in a quaking Sun Devil Stadium. The most memorable play was Lyons returning an interception 41 yards for a touchdown to ice the 43-22 victory. This victory seemed to announce the Sun Devils' arrival as a top-25 team.

8. Third-and-29: Arizona State's shocking 29-28 loss at UCLA on Nov. 5 was the first of five consecutive losses that derailed the Sun Devils' season and got coach Dennis Erickson fired. While it's most remembered for kicker Alex Garoutte missing three field goals, the biggest play of the game was the Bruins converting on a third-and-29 play on their go-ahead drive late in the fourth quarter. Kevin Prince connected with Nelson Rosario for 33 yards to the Sun Devils' 6-yard line. After that play, pretty much nothing went right for the Sun Devils the rest of the season. Further, UCLA wouldn't have played in the Pac-12 championship game without that play.

7. Halliday! Celebrate! Freshman Connor Halliday, the third quarterback Washington State used this season, threw for a Pac-12 freshman-record 494 yards and four touchdowns in a 37-27 victory over Arizona State on Nov. 12. It was his first significant playing time.

6. Utah at USC, Sept. 10: It was a good game that wasn't decided until the waning moments, with USC prevailing 23-14, but that's not why it was memorable. It was the first official Pac-12 game. (California's trip to Colorado earlier in the day didn't count as a conference game; it had been pre-scheduled as a nonconference game).

5. LSU-Oregon, third quarter: The Ducks were statistically superior but trailed LSU 16-13 at halftime on Sept. 3 because Tyrann Mathieu scored a touchdown after stripping the ball from Kenjon Barner on a punt return. Then the third quarter happened. Two fumbles from De'Anthony Thomas in Oregon territory set up a pair of Tigers touchdowns, and the game was pretty much over before it got to the fourth quarter.

4. Stanford wins at USC 56-48 in triple overtime: Start with this: The Oct. 29 meeting was a fantastic game, clearly one of the top five regular-season contests in the nation this year. What was most memorable to me wasn't the fumble that ended it, but Cardinal quarterback Andrew Luck regrouping after throwing a 33-yard pick-six to Nickell Robey and coolly leading a 76-yard touchdown drive to tie the count with 38 seconds left.

3. USC wins at Oregon 38-35: When the Ducks missed a late field goal to tie the Nov. 19 game, several things happened, starting with the end of a 21-game home winning streak as well as the end of a 19-game conference winning streak. It eliminated Oregon from the national title hunt. It also announced USC's return to national relevance. This victory -- as well as quarterback Matt Barkley's decision to return for his senior season -- is why many see the Trojans as 2012 national title contenders.

2. Black Mamba strikes in the Rose Bowl: For those in the college football world who only remembered De'Anthony Thomas from his fumbles in the opener against LSU, they got reintroduced in the Jan. 2 Rose Bowl. Thomas' touchdown runs of 91 and 64 yards were two of the most stunningly athletic plays of the bowl season. Immediately everyone thought: 2012 Heisman?

1. No Fiesta for Williamson: Stanford kicker Jordan Williamson missed a 35-yard field goal wide left as time expired that would have given the Cardinal a victory over No. 3 Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl on Jan. 2. Williamson then missed from 43 yards in overtime, setting up the game-winning kick for the Cowboys. Of course, Stanford wouldn't have been in that situation if it had stopped the Cowboys on one of their two fourth-down conversions. Or if they tackled Oklahoma State receiver Justin Blackmon better. Or if they hadn't fumbled inside their 10-yard line.

Alabama beat LSU for the national title, and both likely will enter 2012 as preseason top-five teams.

Not far behind them will be Arkansas, which has a legitimate argument as the nation's third-best team this season following an 11-2 campaign that featured losses to only the Crimson Tide and the Tigers.

Throw in the fact the Razorbacks get both finalists at home next season, and we might once again be looking at three top-five SEC West teams, meaning, at the very least, one will be in the BCS title game and give the conference a chance at a seventh straight national title.

When will this reign of dominance end? Probably not soon, as seven of ESPNU's current top 15 recruiting classes for 2012 belong to SEC schools. Notre Dame is there as well, at No. 13, but it would be unreasonable to expect the Irish to jump into national title contention, at least next season, with an unfavorable schedule and a big question mark at quarterback.

The best guess here is change atop the college football ranks won't come until change comes to the BCS as we know it, and even that does nothing more than provide a sliver of opportunity for everyone else.

Oklahoma State is in the title game this season if not for a double-overtime loss at Iowa State that came one day after the Cowboys' women's basketball coach and three others were killed in a plane crash. Whether the Cowboys would have beaten LSU is another matter entirely. And they're in the conversation now only because of a Fiesta Bowl that Stanford could not close out when given the chance in the waning seconds.

Things could have been different. In 2008, former Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe helped reject a proposed "plus one" that was being supported by the ACC and SEC. Yup, Mike Slive gave everyone a chance, and he got turned down. As they say, who's laughing now?

But change might be coming. Every conference better hope it is.

Six straight national titles by the SEC -- culminating with two of its schools in the title game Monday night -- gives the conference the benefit of the doubt. That means a one-loss Alabama team that already lost to LSU gets a rematch instead of a one-loss Oklahoma State team waiting for its shot, regardless of each's body of work this season. It's a no-win situation for champions of other conferences. It's the SEC champion and the next-best thing, which, this season, meant another SEC team. History favors it, and the Tide's performance Monday left little room for argument.

Which leads us to whatever changes come in 2014, when the next BCS contract will begin. Answers remain unclear, but if any semblance of a playo ... (er, "plus one") comes to fruition, schools from all over will have the chance to make their cases on the field.

That's all it is -- a chance. But in the same way an Iowa State can knock off an Oklahoma State, that chance might be all anyone tired of the SEC can hope for in trying to slow the dominance of college football's best conference.

The question from the home office in Bristol: When will the SEC reign end?

The short answer is next January when the winner of the Pac-12 championship -- USC or Oregon (or is it Oregon or USC?) -- stomps a bootprint on LSU's forehead in South Florida.

The long answer is, well, it's not going to end. And there are specific, proven reasons for this. They are the same reasons the SEC became dominant.

Money and real estate.

The SEC is the richest conference, although the Big Ten certainly gives it a run for the money. Sure, the Pac-12 eclipsed everyone with its latest TV deal, but that was a matter of good timing. Just wait until the SEC gets a new deal. One word: jack-freaking-pot.

It's also about stadium size and fan passion. The SEC has the first, and those over-brimming stadiums prove the second. Still, the Big Ten also boasts big stadiums that are full every Saturday.

Real estate pushes the SEC over the top. The Southeast is loaded with prep talent, and there is a passion for high school football that pushes the best athletes onto the gridiron -- instead of the hardwood. The addition of Texas A&M will only boost that fertile recruiting footprint, by the way.

Want to know where all the good Pac-12 linemen are? Wasting their time playing basketball. What does that mean? If you live on the West Coast, go to a high school hoops game this weekend. That 6-foot-5 guy playing center? He doesn't play football. He tried it in seventh grade. It was too hard. In the Southeast, the social forces would say: "Son, get your butt onto the football field." On the West Coast, the social forces say, "Hey, do what you want."

Perhaps the West Coast social forces are better. Live and let live, right? But guess what? That 6-foot-5 guy playing center would have a lot better shot at a free education at a Pac-12 school if he played football.

So the bottom line is the SEC has the money, which pays the best coaches and builds the best facilities. It has the workforce, the high school football talent in the Southeast. And it has the culture: Football is the unchallenged king in the South.

Eventually, perhaps next season, another conference is going to win the BCS national title. But the likelihood, at least in the foreseeable future, is the SEC will continue to win national championships at a higher rate than any other conference.

Of course, next season, Oregon or USC is going to open up a can of whup-butt on the SEC in the title game. So the Pac-12 has that going for it.

After six consecutive national titles, it's clear the path to the national championship goes through the SEC. But ESPN's Brock Huard believes he's found the team to break the string.

USC.

Huard lists five reasons: 1. The abundance of talent; 2. The level of production; 3. The surroundings and the schedule; 4. The improving defense; 5. The Barkley factor.

USC's case is strong and Huard makes it. No team will approach the top-level skill talent the Trojans have on offense with QB Matt Barkley, WRs Robert Woods and Marqise Lee and RB Curtis McNeal. There are NFL teams that would trade with USC straight up with those four spots. And you probably could throw in the tight end combination of Xavier Grimble and Randall Telfer, too.

Yes, the defense, with eight starters back, should take a step from solid to good in 2012. And, yes, the schedule sets up well, with both Notre Dame and Oregon coming to the Coliseum.

But there is one major issue: depth. The sort of players USC recruits don't like to think of themselves as "depth," which is why they often leave when it's clear they are backups or reserves. The latest is WR Kyle Prater, a once-touted recruit who fell behind due to injuries and being less good than his recruiting pedigree. The Trojans previously lost RB Amir Carlisle, who's transferring to Notre Dame, and RB Dillon Baxter, who fell afoul of coach Lane Kiffin. It also appears that WR Brice Butler is leaving.

The point: Things are thin behind Woods, Lee and McNeal. And they are even more worrisome on the lines. Sure, the Trojans welcome back four starters on the offensive line but there's a significant step back on the second team. Further, the defensive line is replacing three starters, though the depth there is better.

The most important thing for USC next fall is simple: staying healthy. The Trojans' likely starting 22 as it stands today will be a tough match for any team, SEC or otherwise. But the difference between the 2012 Trojans and, say, the 2004 version, is a lack of A-list depth.

USC is a almost certain preseason top-five team in 2012, along with LSU, Alabama, Oregon and probably Oklahoma. And if things fall into place, we might finally have that USC versus the SEC national title game we've been lacking in the BCS era, for whatever reason.

Of course, Oregon fans might have some thoughts on this.