College Football Nation: Minnesota
LOS ANGELES -- This one might be about big chunks of yards.
Oregon's offense -- and most particularly running back LaMichael James -- thrive on fast-paced drives fueled by big plays. And USC's defense has given up yards in large chunks this year.
James leads the nation with 32 runs of more than 20 yards over the past two seasons. That's a big reason that Oregon has 10 TD drives of 70-plus yards this year that took less than two minutes.
Meanwhile, USC’s defense has given up 114 plays of 10 yards or more this season. USC opponents are averaging a 10-yard gain on almost a quarter of all plays, according to ESPN Stats & Information, a percentage that ranks it beside bottom-feeders like Colorado, Washington State and Minnesota.
So the first order of business for USC's defense is to stop the James and the Duck from piling up big plays.
The second order is to find a second wind in the second half.
The Trojans aren't deep. So far this season, they haven't rotated in many guys -- unlike Oregon, they rely heavily on their starters. And there have been times when the Trojans have seemed tired.
Oregon might be the best second-half team in the country. It's outscoring foes 156-23 after the break. It's reasonable to believe opponents wear down late due to the Ducks' pace of play.
Will USC?
Or might USC counter by holding onto the ball, grinding down on a fast, but undersized Ducks defense with a power running game, and then having Matt Barkley go over the top to Robert Woods and and Ronald Johnson?
Sure, these are not the dominant Trojans of 2002-2008. They are 4-4 in their past eight Pac-10 games -- after winning 55 of 63.
But if the defense can maintain a high level of play for four quarters, the Trojans' potent, balanced offense has the fire-power to win a shootout.
At this point, "Road Block Saturday" hasn't been good to unbeatens. Can the Ducks manage to thrive on the road and continue their pursuit of the school's first national championship?
Oregon's offense -- and most particularly running back LaMichael James -- thrive on fast-paced drives fueled by big plays. And USC's defense has given up yards in large chunks this year.
James leads the nation with 32 runs of more than 20 yards over the past two seasons. That's a big reason that Oregon has 10 TD drives of 70-plus yards this year that took less than two minutes.
Meanwhile, USC’s defense has given up 114 plays of 10 yards or more this season. USC opponents are averaging a 10-yard gain on almost a quarter of all plays, according to ESPN Stats & Information, a percentage that ranks it beside bottom-feeders like Colorado, Washington State and Minnesota.
So the first order of business for USC's defense is to stop the James and the Duck from piling up big plays.
The second order is to find a second wind in the second half.
The Trojans aren't deep. So far this season, they haven't rotated in many guys -- unlike Oregon, they rely heavily on their starters. And there have been times when the Trojans have seemed tired.
Oregon might be the best second-half team in the country. It's outscoring foes 156-23 after the break. It's reasonable to believe opponents wear down late due to the Ducks' pace of play.
Will USC?
Or might USC counter by holding onto the ball, grinding down on a fast, but undersized Ducks defense with a power running game, and then having Matt Barkley go over the top to Robert Woods and and Ronald Johnson?
Sure, these are not the dominant Trojans of 2002-2008. They are 4-4 in their past eight Pac-10 games -- after winning 55 of 63.
But if the defense can maintain a high level of play for four quarters, the Trojans' potent, balanced offense has the fire-power to win a shootout.
At this point, "Road Block Saturday" hasn't been good to unbeatens. Can the Ducks manage to thrive on the road and continue their pursuit of the school's first national championship?
» Predictions: ACC | Big 12 | Big East | Big Ten | Pac-10 | SEC | Non-AQ
My picks in Week 3 were the best yet. 9-3! Maybe I am getting the hang of this. With a 21-13 overall record, I am picking up steam with full-tilt conference play around the corner.
On to the picks!
BYU 31, Nevada 30. My upset special of the week. The Cougars have given us little reason to believe they can win this game, with the anemic offense and the way it has performed in two straight losses. Nevada, meanwhile, is coming off a huge win over California and has super stud Colin Kaepernick. But the Wolf Pack are going on the road for the first time this season, and BYU finally will have one quarterback playing. Jake Heaps is a true freshman, but this team is in desperate need of a leader, and having one quarterback will begin to help the offense get better. BYU has started 1-3 just once under Mendenhall. The Cougars started 1-2 in 2006 and 2007 -- both times they ended up winning 10 straight.
Boise State 34, Oregon State 21. This is the second of three games for Boise State against a team from an automatic qualifying conference and another opportunity to prove it deserves to be in the national championship conversation. The atmosphere should be wild. The Boise State defense has been impressive in its first two games, and should be able to put enough pressure on Ryan Katz and slow down Jacquizz Rodgers.
TCU 38, SMU 17. The Battle for the Iron Skillet resumes in Dallas, where SMU has asked its fans to wear red for a “Red Out” in the nationally televised game Friday night. The Mustangs are vastly improved, but they are no match for TCU, coming off its best game of the season. Watch for SMU to try and attack cornerback Greg McCoy, the way other teams have so far. Even still, the TCU defensive line could have a big game against a team that has already given up 10 sacks this season.
Ole Miss 24, Fresno State 20. The Bulldogs have won six of their last eight games against AQ teams, but they are 0-3 against the SEC. This is their first trip into Mississippi, and it comes at a really inopportune time. Why? Because Ole Miss finds itself 1-2 with losses to Jacksonville State and Vanderbilt. You can bet the Rebels will be extra motivated to win this one. Fresno State has played well defensively this year but faces its biggest challenge against Jeremiah Masoli.
Marshall 33, Ohio 20. Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl redux! The Herd won their matchup in December, and this is as close to a must-win as you can get so early in the season. It’s not a conference game, but Marshall is 0-3 and in desperate need of a shot of confidence going into conference play. Ohio, meanwhile, still is shuffling its quarterback and has gotten little generated in the way of offense, ranking 119th in the country.
Minnesota 20, Northern Illinois 19. The Huskies played better against Illinois last week and almost had a chance to win. But until they can get Chad Spann going, it is going to be tough to win these games against non-AQ teams. The Gophers have looked shaky, and there is talk that coach Tim Brewster is on the hot seat. They cannot afford to lose this game.
San Diego State 27, Utah State 20. The Aztecs could be 3-0 if not for a block in the back that went unnoticed on Missouri’s game-winning touchdown catch last week. They are running the ball this season more effectively thanks to the contributions of freshman Ronnie Hillman. That has made Ryan Lindley better, too. The Aggies have had nothing but close calls in their two losses. This is going to be another one.
FAU 24, North Texas 10. The Owls go into the game off a bye week and face a team reeling because of injuries. The Mean Green must start their third different quarterback after losing their top two for the season with injuries. Riley Dodge returns to start. Eight other starters have been lost for the season as well. A season that started with coach Todd Dodge on the hot season has only gotten tougher.
Air Force 28, Wyoming 13. Air Force put up a valiant effort against Oklahoma, falling just short of the upset. Its offense is humming with the triple option right now, and the defense is playing well, too. The Falcons were able to slow down Landry Jones last week and should have the same success against Austyn Carta-Samuels this week.
Houston 30, Tulane 10. The Cougars survive Week 1 in the post-Case Keenum era, but mainly because they play the overmatched Green Wave. True freshman Terrance Broadway gets the nod, and there is no question he is going to need help from his supporting cast. He handled himself well against UCLA last week when Keenum and backup Cotton Turner went down for the season with injuries. It may be a good thing he gets to start against Tulane. After a bye week, Houston hosts Mississippi State.
My picks in Week 3 were the best yet. 9-3! Maybe I am getting the hang of this. With a 21-13 overall record, I am picking up steam with full-tilt conference play around the corner.
On to the picks!
BYU 31, Nevada 30. My upset special of the week. The Cougars have given us little reason to believe they can win this game, with the anemic offense and the way it has performed in two straight losses. Nevada, meanwhile, is coming off a huge win over California and has super stud Colin Kaepernick. But the Wolf Pack are going on the road for the first time this season, and BYU finally will have one quarterback playing. Jake Heaps is a true freshman, but this team is in desperate need of a leader, and having one quarterback will begin to help the offense get better. BYU has started 1-3 just once under Mendenhall. The Cougars started 1-2 in 2006 and 2007 -- both times they ended up winning 10 straight.
Boise State 34, Oregon State 21. This is the second of three games for Boise State against a team from an automatic qualifying conference and another opportunity to prove it deserves to be in the national championship conversation. The atmosphere should be wild. The Boise State defense has been impressive in its first two games, and should be able to put enough pressure on Ryan Katz and slow down Jacquizz Rodgers.
TCU 38, SMU 17. The Battle for the Iron Skillet resumes in Dallas, where SMU has asked its fans to wear red for a “Red Out” in the nationally televised game Friday night. The Mustangs are vastly improved, but they are no match for TCU, coming off its best game of the season. Watch for SMU to try and attack cornerback Greg McCoy, the way other teams have so far. Even still, the TCU defensive line could have a big game against a team that has already given up 10 sacks this season.
Ole Miss 24, Fresno State 20. The Bulldogs have won six of their last eight games against AQ teams, but they are 0-3 against the SEC. This is their first trip into Mississippi, and it comes at a really inopportune time. Why? Because Ole Miss finds itself 1-2 with losses to Jacksonville State and Vanderbilt. You can bet the Rebels will be extra motivated to win this one. Fresno State has played well defensively this year but faces its biggest challenge against Jeremiah Masoli.
Marshall 33, Ohio 20. Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl redux! The Herd won their matchup in December, and this is as close to a must-win as you can get so early in the season. It’s not a conference game, but Marshall is 0-3 and in desperate need of a shot of confidence going into conference play. Ohio, meanwhile, still is shuffling its quarterback and has gotten little generated in the way of offense, ranking 119th in the country.
Minnesota 20, Northern Illinois 19. The Huskies played better against Illinois last week and almost had a chance to win. But until they can get Chad Spann going, it is going to be tough to win these games against non-AQ teams. The Gophers have looked shaky, and there is talk that coach Tim Brewster is on the hot seat. They cannot afford to lose this game.
San Diego State 27, Utah State 20. The Aztecs could be 3-0 if not for a block in the back that went unnoticed on Missouri’s game-winning touchdown catch last week. They are running the ball this season more effectively thanks to the contributions of freshman Ronnie Hillman. That has made Ryan Lindley better, too. The Aggies have had nothing but close calls in their two losses. This is going to be another one.
FAU 24, North Texas 10. The Owls go into the game off a bye week and face a team reeling because of injuries. The Mean Green must start their third different quarterback after losing their top two for the season with injuries. Riley Dodge returns to start. Eight other starters have been lost for the season as well. A season that started with coach Todd Dodge on the hot season has only gotten tougher.
Air Force 28, Wyoming 13. Air Force put up a valiant effort against Oklahoma, falling just short of the upset. Its offense is humming with the triple option right now, and the defense is playing well, too. The Falcons were able to slow down Landry Jones last week and should have the same success against Austyn Carta-Samuels this week.
Houston 30, Tulane 10. The Cougars survive Week 1 in the post-Case Keenum era, but mainly because they play the overmatched Green Wave. True freshman Terrance Broadway gets the nod, and there is no question he is going to need help from his supporting cast. He handled himself well against UCLA last week when Keenum and backup Cotton Turner went down for the season with injuries. It may be a good thing he gets to start against Tulane. After a bye week, Houston hosts Mississippi State.
It’s the most wonderful time of the year -- college football season. Watch as I put on my picking cap and make my supremely awesome predictions for 12 selected games involving non-AQ teams.
Now, on to the picks!
South Carolina 24, Southern Miss 14. We know Weslye Saunders is out for the Gamecocks, but we're unclear about anybody else. Southern Miss coach Larry Fedora said his team didn’t pay attention to the distractions. With those players or not, South Carolina is simply too talented, especially on defense. Southern Miss goes into the game with just three returning starters on offense.
Pittsburgh 21, Utah 17. The Utes won the last meeting in the Fiesta Bowl in 2005. But this time around the Panthers have Dion Lewis, and he should make the difference -- especially against a defense that only returns four starters.
Northern Illinois 28, Iowa State 27. One of the best teams in the MAC will pull the upset behind the legs of Chad Spann.
Minnesota 31, Middle Tennessee 20. If Dwight Dasher was playing in this game, I would have called for the upset. But the Blue Raiders aren’t going to be the same with Logan Kilgore at quarterback.
Washington 35, BYU 21. The Huskies break their 12-game road losing streak behind the arm and legs of Jake Locker. BYU has had problems against quarterbacks like Locker in the past. The two-quarterback rotation for BYU is going to be a work in progress.
Colorado 21, Colorado State 10. Both teams essentially have coaches on the hot seat, and quarterback uncertainty. While the Rams won the meeting last year, they go into this game with a freshman starting at quarterback in Pete Thomas. Only two first-time starters at quarterback have won this game for Colorado State.
SMU 44, Texas Tech 40. Upset indeed. Kyle Padron should have a big day and break the Mustangs’ 13-game losing streak to Texas Tech.
Navy 30, Maryland 10. The Midshipmen have the real deal in quarterback Ricky Dobbs, who should pose all sorts of problems for the Terrapins defense. Maryland gave up over 200 yards on the ground four times last season.
TCU 24, Oregon State 20. TCU is 9-2 against AQ teams in its past 11 games. Andy Dalton is eager to erase the memories of his Fiesta Bowl performance. The defense should be able to slow Jacquizz Rodgers down enough to limit his impact.
Fresno State 35, Cincinnati 34. The Bulldogs controlled the ball in their game last year and ran for 290 yards. Ryan Mathews is gone, but Robbie Rouse hopes to get the running game going. Fresno State lost that game because Cincinnati was able to score and score quickly on a defense not used to seeing the spread. The Bulldogs should be improved there, and that will make the difference.
Tulsa 27, East Carolina 17. G.J. Kinne, Damaris Johnson and the Golden Hurricane offense are going to be too much for the rebuilding Pirates to handle. Tulsa starts the season on the road for the third straight year but that might not be such a bad thing in this case. The home team in this series has lost three straight.
Drumroll please …
Boise State 21, Virginia Tech 20. The Broncos squeeze this one out on the strength of their offense, and their much improved defense. Darren Evans and Ryan Williams will get their yards, but their big games will be limited thanks to the great tacklers Boise State has in the open field -- Winston Venable and Jeron Johnson. Boise State will be able to take advantage of a Virginia Tech defense that lost seven starters, including three on the defensive line.
Now, on to the picks!
South Carolina 24, Southern Miss 14. We know Weslye Saunders is out for the Gamecocks, but we're unclear about anybody else. Southern Miss coach Larry Fedora said his team didn’t pay attention to the distractions. With those players or not, South Carolina is simply too talented, especially on defense. Southern Miss goes into the game with just three returning starters on offense.
Pittsburgh 21, Utah 17. The Utes won the last meeting in the Fiesta Bowl in 2005. But this time around the Panthers have Dion Lewis, and he should make the difference -- especially against a defense that only returns four starters.
Northern Illinois 28, Iowa State 27. One of the best teams in the MAC will pull the upset behind the legs of Chad Spann.
Minnesota 31, Middle Tennessee 20. If Dwight Dasher was playing in this game, I would have called for the upset. But the Blue Raiders aren’t going to be the same with Logan Kilgore at quarterback.
Washington 35, BYU 21. The Huskies break their 12-game road losing streak behind the arm and legs of Jake Locker. BYU has had problems against quarterbacks like Locker in the past. The two-quarterback rotation for BYU is going to be a work in progress.
Colorado 21, Colorado State 10. Both teams essentially have coaches on the hot seat, and quarterback uncertainty. While the Rams won the meeting last year, they go into this game with a freshman starting at quarterback in Pete Thomas. Only two first-time starters at quarterback have won this game for Colorado State.
SMU 44, Texas Tech 40. Upset indeed. Kyle Padron should have a big day and break the Mustangs’ 13-game losing streak to Texas Tech.
Navy 30, Maryland 10. The Midshipmen have the real deal in quarterback Ricky Dobbs, who should pose all sorts of problems for the Terrapins defense. Maryland gave up over 200 yards on the ground four times last season.
TCU 24, Oregon State 20. TCU is 9-2 against AQ teams in its past 11 games. Andy Dalton is eager to erase the memories of his Fiesta Bowl performance. The defense should be able to slow Jacquizz Rodgers down enough to limit his impact.
Fresno State 35, Cincinnati 34. The Bulldogs controlled the ball in their game last year and ran for 290 yards. Ryan Mathews is gone, but Robbie Rouse hopes to get the running game going. Fresno State lost that game because Cincinnati was able to score and score quickly on a defense not used to seeing the spread. The Bulldogs should be improved there, and that will make the difference.
Tulsa 27, East Carolina 17. G.J. Kinne, Damaris Johnson and the Golden Hurricane offense are going to be too much for the rebuilding Pirates to handle. Tulsa starts the season on the road for the third straight year but that might not be such a bad thing in this case. The home team in this series has lost three straight.
Drumroll please …
Boise State 21, Virginia Tech 20. The Broncos squeeze this one out on the strength of their offense, and their much improved defense. Darren Evans and Ryan Williams will get their yards, but their big games will be limited thanks to the great tacklers Boise State has in the open field -- Winston Venable and Jeron Johnson. Boise State will be able to take advantage of a Virginia Tech defense that lost seven starters, including three on the defensive line.
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