ESPN College Football

1. Remember when Notre Dame fired Bob Davie for having the temerity to go 35-25 (.583)? Neither of his successors, Ty Willingham (.583) or Charlie Weis (.565), surpassed him. New Mexico announced Wednesday that Davie will be its next head coach. It has been 11 seasons since Davie last ran a practice or coached a game, a longer hiatus than any current FBS head coach has on his resume. Given the mess that Mike Locksley made of the Lobos, you have to assume that Davie will have time to scrape off his rust.

2. Love this note that ACC blogger Heather Dinich sent me. North Carolina State sophomore corner David Amerson leads the FBS with 10 interceptions, three more than anyone else. Not only has no defender picked off 11 passes since safety Jim Leonhard of Wisconsin in 2002, but if Amerson maintains his pace of one interception per game, he will be the first to do so over an entire season since safety Terry Hoage of Georgia in 1982. You now may find Hoage in the College Football Hall of Fame.

3. If No. 11 Houston falters down the stretch, there are two other non-AQs waiting to qualify for an automatic BCS bid. If either No. 19 TCU wins the Mountain West Conference or No. 20 Southern Miss knocks off Houston to win Conference USA, it’s possible that one of them will reach 16th or higher in the final BCS standings. That would qualify the higher-ranked team of the two of them for a BCS bid. One of them will end up in the Fiesta or the Sugar.

Improbable, but now not impossible, the BCS flame is rekindled for the streaking TCU Horned Frogs.

They'll need No. 11 Houston and No. 20 Southern Miss to each fumble a golden opportunity, while the No. 19 Frogs -- 8-2 and winners of five in a row -- can ill-afford a misstep of their own in their final two games against below-.500 squads Colorado State and UNLV.

Still, these Frogs, boosted by Saturday's huge road win at No. 5 Boise State that put a hammerlock on the Mountain West Conference championship, are the leading dark horse to earn a third consecutive BCS bowl berth.

How is this possible? Let's review:

When Baylor kicked the game-winning field goal with 1:04 to play in the season-opener, TCU swallowed the hard truth that just one game in and the BCS was all but dead to them. A month later, SMU's overtime victory in Fort Worth posed the question if the 3-2 Frogs were even capable of capturing a third consecutive league title?

Fast forward five weeks and Gary Patterson's boys provided that answer with Saturday's resounding, come-from-behind, 36-35 victory on the Broncos' near-invincible blue turf. The heart-and-guts effort, spearheaded by the tremendous play of first-year starting quarterback Casey Pachall, put TCU in the driver's seat for the conference title and, somewhat unsuspectingly, rekindled the BCS flame.

Here's how:

The BCS selection process offers two paths of entrance for non-automatic qualifiers like TCU. The first is a top-12 ranking in the BCS standings. At No. 19, that's highly unlikely considering the Frogs' final two opponents and the number of teams ahead of them. The second route grants a berth by finishing in the top 16 and with a ranking higher than that of a champion of one of the six AQ conferences.

Say hello to the Frogs' once-future home, the Big East.

That league currently boasts no teams ranked in the top 25 of the BCS standings. Cincinnati (7-2) dropped out of the Associated Press Top 25 poll, falling to 29th, and West Virginia is 27th. Neither team boasts a remaining schedule that would catapult it ahead of a 10-2 Frogs team, one that very well could claim a top-16 ranking.

Standing in the way is Houston (10-0) and Southern Miss (9-1). These two are on a collision course to meet in the Conference USA title game. If the Coogs win out, they'll be assured of the BCS berth. If the Golden Eagles win out, they'll likely hop the Frogs and earn the spot.

Pass-happy Houston, led by sixth-year quarterback Case Keenum, welcomes the disappointing Ponies (6-4) on Saturday (ESPN GameDay will be there) before traveling to Tulsa (7-3, 6-0) the day after Thanksgiving. Southern Miss has games against a pair of 2-8 teams in Alabama-Birmingham and Memphis.

The script favorable to the Frogs would see SMU or Tulsa knock off Houston, and then the Coogs beat Southern Miss in the title game, assuring each another loss.

If it plays out, the two-loss Frogs could very well become the first non-undefeated, non-AQ team to play in a BCS game.

If that happens, consider these Frogs charmed.

Projecting the bowls based on the third week.

Rose Bowl Game: Stanford vs. Big Ten
Valero Alamo: Oregon vs. Big 12
Bridgepoint Education Holiday: Arizona State vs. Big 12
Hyundai Sun: Washington vs. ACC
MAACO Las Vegas: Utah vs. Mountain West
Kraft Fight Hunger: California vs. ACC or Army
Gildan New Mexico: no team vs. Big 12

SALT LAKE CITY -- Ohio State-Michigan? Whatever. Auburn-Alabama? That's a quaint bit of hate. Oregon-Washington? The ranting and raving from the rain-soaked adherents in green and purple fleece just doesn't compare.

To what, you ask? Well, the hottest rivalry in college football, of course.

Utah-Colorado! (Cue "Psycho" shower scene music).

Doesn't do it for 'ya does it?

Think about your college football conference. Every game matters, but some matter just a bit more. Those are your rivals. You don't like them; they don't like you. It's a beautiful thing.

Now consider Utah and Colorado fans. The Utes, who are leaving the Mountain West for the Pac-12, are still under contract with arch-rival BYU for the next two seasons, but there are no guarantees that game will continue to be played annually (though the good money says it will). The Buffaloes, who are leaving the Big 12 for the Pac-12, no longer will play arch-rival Nebraska, which is skipping off to the Big Ten.

Their new schedules include nine conference games with teams that, well, they just don't have any strong feelings about.

"I'm sure we can conjure up some kind of hate for [Colorado]," Utah's colorful offensive tackle Tony Bergstrom said. "Tell us they're Communists or something."

Tony, they are Communists.

Expansion isn't a regular thing. Oh, the Southwest Conference got picked apart in 1996, and the ACC raided the Big East in 2004-05, but when teams jump from conference to conference -- particularly when automatic qualifying conferences are involved -- it sends strange ripples across sport's space-time continuum. The Buffaloes and Utes in the Pac-12 is a new thing in a sport that leans hard on its history to fuel the emotions of obsessive fandom.

You can't force the Utes and Buffaloes to hate each other. That's not how it's done. Confessed Utah linebacker Brian Blechen, "I don't have anything against Colorado."

So what must be done? Obviously, some Pac-12 team must commit a grave offense against Utah or Colorado. This, of course, will be mostly imagined, thereby making it easier to attribute it mythic status over the coming years.

"Invariably, something is going to happen in those games, and School X is going to be the school that you point to," Colorado coach Jon Embree said.

Embree also has been selling to his players that they are a part of program history because they, in fact, are making program history.

"Coach Embree said in the locker room that we get to start new traditions, we get to start new rivalries," Buffaloes quarterback Tyler Hansen said. "That's something to look forward to. Ten years from now, if the Colorado-Utah game is a big rivalry, we can say, 'Hey, we were the first game. We started that rivlary.' That could be something special."

There are potential angles for Utah-Colorado hate. Nebraska was all about red. Colorado fans therefore are not big fans of red. Utah is all about red, too. And everyone knows that Utah fans are jealous of the vastly superior skiing in Colorado. Or is it vice versa?

On perhaps a more substantive level, Colorado is entering the Pac-12 as an equal member -- in 2012, per the original agreement -- while Utah will get no payout from the conference in 2011 (other than an equal share of revenue from the Pac-12 championship game), and partial shares for the two years after that (50 percent in 2012 and 75 percent in 2013). There is some "all are equal but some are more equal than others" at play here.

While the Buffaloes have been a mediocre team of late in the Big 12, and the Utes are a national power coming out of the MWC, there's still a bias that favors the AQ team. When Utah -- or TCU or Boise State, for that matter -- was making one of its undefeated runs over the past few seasons, some dismissed it with a, "They wouldn't be able to do that in the SEC/Pac-10/Big Ten/Big 12."

"Coming from the Mountain West, I think a lot of people are going to be look at how we transition into that," Blechen said. "Kind of like a statement on whether we can hang or not in the Pac-12. I think we'll be ready."

Of course, Utah's most recent game with a Pac-12 team was a win over California in the 2009 Poinsettia Bowl. Colorado visited California last fall. That trip went badly.

"A lot of bad," Hansen said with a pained look. "I'm looking forward to playing those guys. That's a big game for me personally because I didn't play well last year."

So there you have it: Colorado has a history with a Pac-12 foe.

Of course, not everyone fuels up on emotion.

"I've been playing different teams my whole life," Colorado running back Rodney Stewart said. "I don't care who I'm playing against. I just try to do my job. It's just football."

It is just football, but that's the good news for we lovers of rivalries. Football is too emotional and physical of a game for teams that regularly play to remain neutral about each other.

No hate between Utah and Colorado and other Pac-12 teams? Just give it time.

On Friday, we looked at offensive three-headed monsters -- the best quarterback, running back, wide receiver troikas -- so it also makes sense to also look at their defensive counterparts, the best threesomes from each of the three levels of defense: defensive line, linebacker and defensive back.

Here's the tally from last season, if you are interested.

1. Arizona State

DE Junior Onyeali, LB Vontaze Burfict, CB Omar Bolden

The Skinny: No question on No. 1 here. Onyeali was the Pac-10 Defensive Freshman of the Year. Burfict is the nation's best inside linebacker. Bolden was unanimous first-team All-Pac-10.

2. Stanford

DE Matt Masifilo, LB Shayne Skov, SS Delano Howell

The Skinny: Masifilo, the lone returning starter on the Cardinal defensive line, was honorable mention All-Pac-10, as was Skov, who was playing as well as any linebacker in the conference over the final third of the season. Howell was second-team All-Pac-10.

3. California

DE Trevor Guyton, LB Mychal Kendricks, S Sean Cattouse

The Skinny: Guyton had 8.5 tackles for a loss and 4.5 sacks despite being a part-time starter. Kendricks was second-team All-Pac-10. Cattouse earned honorable mention.

4. Oregon

DE Terrell Turner, LB Josh Kaddu, CB Cliff Harris

The Skinny: Two solid returning starters and a second-team All-Pac-10 cornerback who figures to be a preseason All-American after earning second-team honors from the Associated Press and Walter Camp Football Foundation in 2010.

5. Washington:

DT Alameda Ta'amu, LB Cort Dennison, FS Nate Fellner

The Skinny: Ta'amu earned honorable mention All-Conference honors and seemed to find himself over the latter half of the season. Dennison had 93 tackles, 8.5 tackles for a loss and two interceptions. Fellner tied for second in the conference with five interceptions.

6. Arizona

DT Justin Washington, LB Paul Vassallo, CB Trevin Wade

The Skinny: Washington's numbers fell off when he got banged up, but he still had 11.5 tackles for a loss and six sacks as a redshirt freshman. Vassallo was honorable mention All-Conference. Wade had an off year last fall, but was second-team All-Pac-10 in 2009.

7. USC

DE Armond Armstead, LB Chris Galippo, FS T.J. McDonald

The Skinny: This actually could be one of the best threesomes in the conference, but Armstead and Galippo have injury issues and only put up middling numbers last fall. McDonald was second-team All-Pac-10 in 2010.

8. Washington State

DE Travis Long, LB Alex Hoffman-Ellis, SS Deone Bucannon

The Skinny: Long was honorable mention All-Conference, Bucannon, who started as a true freshman, and Hoffman-Ellis were the Cougars' top two tackles in 2010.

9. UCLA

DE Datone Jones, LB Patrick Larimore, SS Tony Dye

The Skinny: A solid threesome that is down here more because it gets an "incomplete." Jones missed all of last season with a foot injury, but, if healthy, he's an All-Conference sort. Larimore was solid in seven games before suffering a shoulder injury. Dye led the Bruins in tackles and earned honorable mention All-Pac-10.

10. Colorado

NG Will Pericak, LB Jon Major, FS Ray Polk

The Skinny: Pericak earned honorable mention All-Big 12. Major was the Buffaloes leading tackler before he blew out his knee in Game 7 (a knee injury also killed the junior's true freshman season). Polk was the second-leading tackler.

11. Utah

DE Derrick Shelby, LB Chaz Walker, CB Conroy Black

The Skinny: Honestly don't know how to rank the Utes here. Shelby and Walker are returning starters -- Walker earned second-team All-Mountain West honors. Black was the top backup cornerback last season. But Star Lotulelei might be the Utes' best defensive lineman, and Brian Blechen has moved from strong safety, where he was very good, to linebacker. How highly do the Utes think of him? They list him as an All-American candidate.

12. Oregon State

DE Dominic Glover, LB Rueben Robinson, S Lance Mitchell

The Skinny: Three returning starters, but none of them even earned honorable mention All-Pac-10 honors. Mitchell was the Beavers' third-leading tackler, Glover had 2.5 sacks, and Robinson split time with Tony Wilson.

One thing we're learning about Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott: When he says he's going to do something, he does.

Scott talked about expansion and he did it. And he talked about improving football officiating, and it appears he's well on his way to doing that.

Mike Pereira, the Pac-12's interim coordinator of football officiating, has dismissed 11 officials who worked games last year and will hire 16 new officials heading into the 2011 season, according to the Seattle Times. Those new officials will be lured away from the Big 12, Mountain West and WAC, per the report.

Pereira doesn't mince words with his evaluation of the conference's officiating.

"I certainly did not think that for a geographic area like the West Coast that can draw from a lot of officials, I certainly didn't think it was at the level that it could be," he told the Times. "I'm not saying it was horrible, but it was not at the level that it deserved to be and that this conference deserves to have."

My guess is some of you might agree.

Couple of other notes of interest from the Times story by Bob Condotta.

• Pereira said the conference's entire officiating program is being reorganized, starting with the hiring of seven supervisors to oversee each of the seven officiating positions (referee, umpire, linesman, line judge, back judge, field judge, side judge), as well as one for the replay booth.
• There will be a new "officiating command center" at the conference office in Walnut Creek, Calif., which matches other BCS conferences.
• Sixteen new officials will give the conference seven seven-man crews, a personnel increase due to the addition of two new teams to the conference.

The Pac-10 doesn't become the Pac-12 officially until July 1, but with the advent of spring practices -- Stanford gets an early jump on Feb. 21 -- the reality sets in: It's going to be different this fall.

It's not just about Utah and Colorado joining the "old" Pac-10, which has been stable since adding Arizona and Arizona State in 1978. It's about a massive transformation.

For one, there will be two divisions: North (California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, Washington and Washington State) and South (Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, UCLA, USC and Utah). Teams will still play nine conference games, but the round-robin format adopted in 2006 is over. With 12 teams, every team can't play every other on an annual basis, which affects not only rivalries but also recruiting.

Divisions also bring a conference championship game, which will be played at the home stadium of the team with the best conference record on Dec. 3. The winner of that game, even if it's just, say, 8-5, will be crowned Pac-12 champion and go to the Rose Bowl, if it's not selected for the national title game.

Divisions change the dynamic. In Pac-10 play, every game mattered. In Pac-12 play, divisional games matter a little more.

While some Pac-10 coaches, particularly in the Northwest, weren't terribly excited about expansion and North and South divisions -- Oregon State's always-pleasant Mike Riley was on record as being slightly sour on the idea -- there's no turning back. For the lack of a better phrase, it is what it is.

"It's not really a focal point for us as we head into spring practice," Washington coach Steve Sarkisian said. "Our focus for us is on us, trying to get better."

Said Oregon coach Chip Kelly, "Whether there are eight teams in the conference or 18 teams in the conference, it has no effect on us ... I don't care how they split the divisions -- I don't get caught up in that. I don't know why anyone would .... They don't ask us our opinion on that. And it's not that I want that. I don't worry about things I don't have control over."

For Utah, coming from the Mountain West Conference -- a solid league but a non-automatic qualifying one -- the move was a no-brainer. For Colorado, leaving the Big 12 was a more complicated proposition. But new Buffaloes coach Jon Embree admits he has a West Coast bias.

"When they were forming the Big 12 [in 1994], it looked like we might go to the Pac-10 at the time, and I was really hoping that would happen for the university as opposed to the Big 12 conference," he said. "I always felt like that conference was a better fit for us."

Embree played high school football in Colorado, went to Colorado and coached there for 10 seasons under Bill McCartney (1993-94), Rick Neuheisel (1995-98) and Gary Barnett (1999-2002). He's a Colorado guy. But his parents are from Los Angeles, he was born in L.A., he spent plenty of time in Southern California growing up and he coached at UCLA. He even played for the L.A. Rams for two seasons (1987-88).

He's got plenty of West Coast in him, just as Colorado's and Utah's rosters are already laden with players from California, as well as a smattering from other Pac-10 states. The transition for both probably will be fairly easy.

And, of course, none of this has much to do with spring practices, which for all 12 programs will be business as usual: Filling voids, fostering competition, breaking in new coaches and tweaking schemes.

On the football side of things, Embree is the only new coach who arrived after a termination. His predecessor, Dan Hawkins, never posted a winning season in five years. At Stanford, Jim Harbaugh bolted for the San Francisco 49ers after leading the Cardinal to their best season of the modern era. David Shaw was promoted from offensive coordinator to replace Harbaugh.

That's it for coaching transitions, though it's fair to say that a number of coaches enter spring practices facing win-or-else seasons, particularly UCLA coach Rick Neuheisel, Washington State's Paul Wulff and Arizona State's Dennis Erickson.

Seven teams enter spring with stability at quarterback, including four with legitimate All-America candidates behind center: Stanford's Andrew Luck, Oregon's Darron Thomas, USC's Matt Barkley and Arizona's Nick Foles. Conversely, three teams appear to have wide-open competitions at the position: California, UCLA and Washington.

UCLA replaced both coordinators, which notably ended up landing Norm Chow at Utah. California and Arizona also had some significant staff turnover, with Bears coach Jeff Tedford stating he planned to work extensively with his quarterbacks this spring.

At Oregon, the Ducks begin earnest preparations to defend their consecutive conference titles needing to rebuild their offensive line and defensive front seven. Arizona, California, Stanford and USC also have questions on their offensive lines, while Oregon State must address the early departure of running back Jacquizz Rodgers and issues on its defensive line. Arizona State, with a conference-high 19 starters back, needs to square things away at quarterback and prepare for being the favorite in the Pac-12 South. Newbies Colorado and Utah have vacancies in the secondary, which should be worrisome in a conference of quarterbacks.

So it's really about football this spring, not transformation. Because you know what every coach will tell you when asked for his thoughts on heading into the first year of Pac-12 play?

"It's just line 'em up and tell me who to play," Embree said.

Utah coach Kyle Whittingham is a details guy. Most football coaches are. But some details are new and take some getting used to.

"There are a lot of good football teams in the Pac-10," he said before catching himself. "I guess we'll call it the Pac-12 now."

Yep. Welcome.

Whittingham -- wisely, if you think about how redundant the questions would have been -- didn't talk about his Utes move into the Pac-12 this past season. But he admits it was impossible to completely block out. He called it "human nature" that he, perhaps, paid just a bit more attention to Pac-10 highlights, or checked out Pac-10 box scores with more than a casual interest.

Further, it was an issue in recruiting. When he reached out to a prospect, he could promise more than he could in the past, starting with an affiliation with an automatic-qualifying conference. That's the bright lights, big city of college football. "Son," Whittingham can now ask a young, West Coast hot shot, "would you like to one day play in the Rose Bowl?"

A recruit in Southern California who thinks Salt Lake City is somewhere near Narnia? No problem: "Son, Utah is in the Pac-12 South Division with USC, UCLA, Arizona, Arizona State and Colorado. You'll get plenty of sunshine during the season and you'll come home for a game every year and get to see your mommy."

You cannot underestimate what a game-changer that can be in recruiting. Said Whittingham, "Without a doubt we were able to get in on several players that we would have had no chance of getting in on without the affiliation with the Pac-12."

Exhibit No. 1: Receiver Quinton Pedroza, the Utes' top-rated signee. The 6-foot-3, 205-pounder from Chino, Calif., switched his allegiance from Arizona State on signing day.

Of course, competing for better players in recruiting also means a higher level of competition. Utah lost a pair of committed players to other Pac-12 schools: quarterback Derrick Brown to Washington and cornerback Ryan Henderson to USC.

As Whittingham said, "Now that you're in on them, you're in on them with several other high-profile schools and the competition is just as intense."

Speaking of competition, the nine-game Pac-12 schedule figures to present an uptick in degree of difficulty for the Utes, even though the Mountain West Conference has fared well when matched with the Pac-10 in recent years. Whittingham is 4-3 against Pac-10 teams since taking over for Urban Meyer in 2005, beating California, Oregon State, UCLA and Arizona.

"The week-in and week-out level of competition is ratcheted up," Whittingham said. "There are some excellent football teams in the Mountain West Conference. ... Not to downplay or disrespect anything that's going on in the Mountain West, but we're convinced the weekly challenges will be much more difficult than they have been in years' past for us."

There is also an atypical challenge for both Utah and Colorado (and Nebraska as it heads into the Big Ten): Little to no "local knowledge."

Just about every FBS team will be familiar with the vast majority of its schedule next year. It will have first-hand knowledge about personnel, schemes, tendencies, etc., of most of its opponents because it plays a regular conference schedule annually. Utah and Colorado will not. The Utes didn't play a Pac-10 team last year, and Colorado only got blasted at California. Essentially, they will play a slate of what feels like 12 nonconference foes. So they are playing catch-up with scouting and preparation compared to the rest of the reconfigured conference.

"That does present a challenge having very little knowledge about the vast majority of the teams in the conference you're moving into," Whittingham said.

But Whittingham pointed to the hiring of offensive coordinator Norm Chow and offensive line coach Tim Davis as providing a helpful crutch. Chow, you may have heard, was UCLA's coordinator the previous three seasons, while Davis coached at USC from 2002-2004.

So Whittingham will have some help looking forward. As for looking back at the Mountain West, that's really not Whittingham's thing.

"I'm not a sentimental guy, so there's really no emotional ties or anything of that nature," he said. "I can say the Mountain West was very good for us. It was a good run."

And now it's all about the Pac-10. Er, Pac-12.

While both Utah and Colorado are joining the Pac-10 to make the conference the Pac-12 this season, Utah might be the more interesting addition.

Colorado comes from the Big 12, an AQ conference. While the Buffaloes have struggled in recent years, they arrive having a pretty good idea what the competition will be like in the Pac-12.

Utah is coming from the Mountain West Conference. While the MWC has long been thought of as the best of the non-AQ conferences, there's still a bit of AQ snobbery out there that questions how well the Utes might handle the grind of a nine-game schedule in an AQ conference.

We'll soon find out, but before we do, national and non-AQ blogger Andrea Adelson and Pac-12 blogger Ted Miller decided to chat about it.

Andrea Adelson: Ted, today marks a momentous milestone. You get custody of Utah, which leaves the ranks of the Little Sisters of the Poor to join the all-mighty Pac-12. Congratulations. So how about a little back on forth on how you think Utah may fare as an automatic qualifying team? We know the Utes were the original BCS busters from among the non-AQs. What are your biggest concerns for Utah headed into uncharted waters?

Ted Miller: Andrea, glad to take hold of the Utes! Welcome to the new Pac-12 blog! The immediate measure is testing the old axiom that was consistently used against non-AQ schools in the past: While they can beat even an elite AQ team on any given day, they couldn't successfully negotiate the rigors of playing a full slate of games in an AQ conference. The idea is that playing BYU and TCU is tough, but when you throw in Wyoming, New Mexico and UNLV life is much easier. It's about getting ready to play USC one week, Oregon the next and Arizona the week after. Washington State a patsy? Well, the Cougars are a Pac-10 patsy -- at present -- but they won't feel like that after playing Arizona State, Oregon State and Washington. That week in, week out grind is what separates the AQ and non-AQ conferences. At least, that's the theory. And if the Utes go 8-1 or even 6-3 in Pac-12 play in 2011, they could take a big step toward invalidating that theory.

So, knowing what you know about Utah, what do you think will happen? How high are the expectations in Salt Lake for the Utes in Year 1 of Pac-12 play?

AA: I agree, Ted, I think there is a great unknown about how a non-AQ will do in an AQ conference. I have dismissed those "grind in, grind out" arguments in several debates with other bloggers and Mark Schlabach as well, but there is no question folks will be watching to see how Utah handles better competition on a week-to-week basis. I may be overly optimistic but I have Utah at 9-3 at this point. A lot of it depends on Jordan Wynn and how he recovers from his shoulder surgery. Utah gets kudos for hiring Norm Chow to help with the transition. I think Utah fans are very optimistic about their school's chance for success from the outset because of how the Utes have handled themselves against AQ teams in non-conference and bowl games. Utah posted a 21-12 record against teams from AQ conferences since the BCS began in 1998. That is tops among all non-AQ teams. I know the "grind" argument comes into play there, but Utah is generally well-coached and solid in all phases. The one thing that concerns me is the way the Utes played in losses to TCU, Boise State and Notre Dame last season. There were breakdowns all over the field, very uncharacteristic for a Kyle Whittingham team. I saw you had Utah at No. 7 in your way-too-early Pac-10 preseason 2011 rankings. Can you give us a more in-depth sense of why you have Utah there?

TM: The good news is Utah will provide an answer to the "grind it out" theory. I'm sure Boise State will be rooting for the Utes to prove the AQ snobs wrong. As for Utah being No. 7 in my power rankings, perhaps that's my AQ bias coming out. But there's annually a little of the ole "throw them into the hat" in the middle of the Pac-12. It's easy to see a top (Oregon and Stanford) and bottom (Colorado and Washington State), but the middle is a bit of a muddle, and that's the case most years. Utah seems to have some questions on both sides of the ball. Sure, Wynn is back, but most of his top weapons are gone at running back and receiver. The defense also takes some personnel hits, particularly in the secondary. As for Chow, well, he's a legend. But his previous three jobs -- USC, Tennessee Titans and UCLA -- ended badly. Is he still really "Norm Chow?" We'll see. I go through Utah's schedule and see 6-6 and think every win over .500 should feel like gravy. It is worth noting that not playing Oregon and Stanford seems like some serendipitous scheduling for Year 1! The schedule was not factored into my power rankings.

Tell me why the other 11 teams should fear the Utes?

AA: I understand where people say that about Chow given what happened in his past few stops. But he does bring a knowledge of the Pac-12 that nobody else on the Utah staff has, and that should be able to help when it comes to scouting and game planning. Receiver DeVonte Christopher showed flashes last season, and the incoming running backs, Harvey Langi and John White, have great potential. Defensively, safety Brian Blechen had a terrific season as a true freshman, and linebackers Chaz Walker and Matt Martinez return, and JJ Williams should be healthy. I think a lot depends on how the offense does under Chow. Will it be radically different from the spread Utah generally runs, and runs well? Can Utah actually score against good teams, something it had trouble with last season? Does Utah have the depth to be able to compete in an automatic qualifying conference? There are definitely personnel questions and questions about joining one of the bigger conferences, so it is impossible to know for sure exactly what will happen. Your guess is as good as mine.

TM: A couple of things we can agree on. First, it's going to be interesting. If Utah goes 9-3, as you predict, there will be a lot of cheering and a lot of "I told you so" from non-AQ conferences. Particularly since Utah looks like it is in a moderate rebuilding phase with just 13 starters coming back. Neither of us root for teams, but more than a few folks would view that as a positive for college football, increasing respect for some of the so-called "have-nots," even as one of their own becomes a "have." It also will be interesting to see how Utah changes with a seat at the big table. Does recruiting get a big boost? Does Utah get treated differently in the national polls? The Pac-10 becoming the Pac-12 is a significant alteration of the college football landscape. It will be fun to see how things play out.

Will any team mired in the bottom-middle of the Pac-10 get hot down the stretch? It sure would make the conference's bowl partners happy.

With Oregon State's stunning loss to Washington State, it's becoming increasingly likely that only four conference teams will earn bowl eligibility, barring any special waiver from the NCAA for 5-7 teams to play in contracted bowl games.

Oregon, Stanford and Arizona are already bowl eligible. If Oregon wins out, it almost certainly will play for the national title. If Stanford wins out, and the Ducks play a non-AQ team for the title, the Cardinal will play in the Rose Bowl. After that, Stanford's status is fluid. Could it earn an at-large invitation to a BCS bowl game? Or will it possibly be relegated to the Alamo Bowl?

If Arizona loses to Oregon and beats Arizona State, it figures to end up in the Alamo Bowl or the Holiday Bowl. We are projecting California to end up 6-6 after losing to Stanford and beating Washington at home in the season-finale, which would put the Bears in the Holiday or Sun Bowl.

And the Las Vegas Bowl and Kraft Fight Hunger bowl, in our projection, would have to look elsewhere for teams.

Of course, there are possibilities for UCLA and Washington and even Arizona State.

The Bruins (4-5) play at Washington (Thursday night), at Arizona State and play host to USC. It's not implausible to imagine them winning two of three. Of course, they will have to show some toughness on the road, which they did at Texas.

Washington (3-6) plays the Bruins, at California and at Washington State. It's not implausible to imagine the Huskies winning all three, though the visit to Cal looks a bit daunting.

As for Arizona State (4-6), it needs to beat UCLA and win at Arizona to reach .500. If it does, it's likely the Sun Devils would be a candidate for a waiver that would allow them to play in a bowl game, despite getting to six wins with two victories against FCS foes.

And it's not that hard to be sympathetic to that position. The Sun Devils' two FCS foes are not really that much weaker than the nonconference patsies a number of other 6-6 and 7-5 teams will have played.

The Bruins, however, look like the swing team, with remaining games against Washington and Arizona State. If they manage to get a fifth win at Washington, it wouldn't be hard to see them splitting their final two games and getting to 6-6.

• Tostitos BCS National Championship Game: Oregon vs. BCS team [a non-AQ]
• Rose Bowl Game: Stanford vs. Big Ten
• Valero Alamo: Arizona vs. Big 12
• Bridgepoint Education Holiday: California vs. Big 12
• Hyundai Sun: No team.
• MAACO Las Vegas: No team
• Kraft Fight Hunger: No team.

There's some happy in this week's bowl projections: Two BCS teams!

And there's some grumpy: Contract bowls with no eligible Pac-10 teams.

First, after watching Boise State and TCU this weekend, I've decided to roll the dice that one or the other will play Oregon for the national title.

That opens the door for Stanford to play in the Rose Bowl. That's my makeup gift for nagging Stanford fans about all those empty seats Saturday.

That's the good news. The bad news is I'm now projecting just five bowl-eligible teams. Which means the Las Vegas Bowl and Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl make have to look elsewhere for a Pac-10 team.

The way I see things playing out, Arizona State, UCLA and Washington all finish 5-7.

Of course, what that also means is a one-game swing would create a bowl-eligible team (though ASU needs to be 7-5 to guarantee bowl eligibility). On the other hand, Washington's visit to California on Nov. 27 is a swing game. I've got it being Cal's sixth win (Bears at home!) and the Huskies seventh loss. And if UCLA keeps rolling and wins at Washington on Nov. 18th ... well, you get the point.

Still, as I keep typing: Lots of football to be played. These are for entertainment purposes. I don't want to be seen as a travel agent. Don't book anything yet.

• Tostitos BCS National Championship Game: Oregon vs. BCS team [a non-AQ]
• Rose Bowl Game: Stanford vs. Big Ten
• Valero Alamo: Arizona vs. Big 12
• Bridgepoint Education Holiday: Oregon State vs. Big 12
• Hyundai Sun: California vs. ACC
• MAACO Las Vegas: No team
• Kraft Fight Hunger: No team.

Oregon State is the big mover this week, its win against California making a 5-3 Pac-10 finish the most likely scenario for the Beavers. That could make things interesting.

If both Arizona and Oregon State finish 5-3 in the Pac-10, that likely would make them top candidates for the Holiday Bowl, which gets the Pac-10's No. 3 team.

The Wildcats played in the Holiday Bowl last year. Oregon State never has. And the Beavers won at Arizona.

The guess here is the Beavers would go to San Diego and Arizona would get a trip to El Paso for the Sun Bowl, which the Beavers played in in 2006 and 2008.

Of course, both are still in the Rose Bowl race. And if Arizona wins at Stanford on Saturday, its bowl possibilities greatly expand. (I'm sure to get some grumpiness from Wildcats fans not appreciative of getting losses to Stanford and Oregon written into their future).

After the top four teams, though, things are murky. We've got California and Arizona State earning bowl berths at 6-6. For the Sun Devils, that means some sort of waiver is given, because they played two FCS teams and typically would be required to win seven games. Contracted conference bowl games might be able to fudge things with the NCAA. (With 35 bowls requiring 70 teams, this might be necessary to fill all slots).

A key player might be USC. Will the Trojans finish strong or wilt? My present scenario has the Trojans losing to Arizona State, Arizona and Oregon State, meaning they're about to begin a four-game losing streak.

To be honest, that feels unlikely. But, not to seem like a whiny baby or anything, these bowl projections aren't easy to do.

• Tostitos BCS National Championship Game: Oregon vs. BCS team
• Rose Bowl Game: No Pac-10 team
• Valero Alamo: Stanford vs. Big 12
• Bridgepoint Education Holiday: Oregon State vs. Big 12
• Hyundai Sun: Arizona vs. ACC
• MAACO Las Vegas: California vs. Mountain West
• Kraft Fight Hunger: Arizona State vs. WAC

These bowl projections don't match up with how I penciled out the rest of the regular season. My perhaps pessimistic projections see more 5-7 than 6-6, which likely means open bowl slots.

So I'm leaning on the conference's unpredictability to provide a boost to teams that could go either way toward bowl eligibility. Stanford, Arizona, USC and, heck, maybe even Oregon, are going to lose to someone in a "We didn't see that coming" game. That probably is where an elusive sixth win will appear.

Two games among the muddled middle seem critical to me, with unpredictable Cal being the linchpin: First, the Bears visit Oregon State on Saturday. The guess here is the winner is a sure-thing bowl team.

Second, Washington visits Cal on Nov. 27. It's hard to win in Berkeley, but the Huskies might need that one to get to six wins.

And by the way, Stanford and Arizona fans: You are now also TCU and Boise State fans. If a non-AQ team were to play Oregon for the national championship, then the Rose Bowl could stick to its traditional Pac-10-Big Ten matchup. If the No. 2 Pac-10 team is BCS-bowl eligible, then it likely goes to the Rose Bowl in that scenario.

So here we go.

• Tostitos BCS National Championship Game: Oregon vs. BCS team
• Rose Bowl Game: No Pac-10 team
• Valero Alamo: Stanford vs. Big 12
• Bridgepoint Education Holiday: Arizona vs. Big 12
• Hyundai Sun: California vs. ACC
• MAACO Las Vegas: Washington vs. Mountain West
• Kraft Fight Hunger: Oregon State vs. WAC

Bowl projections in October are virtually meaningless, but that's not going to stop us for doing them!

There are two problems in the Pac-10: The special BCS rule that forces the Rose Bowl to take a non-AQ team should it lose the Pac-10 or Big Ten champion to the national title game. That means if Oregon wins out and plays for the national championship which -- what the hay! -- we decided to project, it's likely the No. 2 team in the Pac-10 won't go to the Granddaddy, no matter how highly its ranked.

So 11-1 Stanford could end up in the Alamo Bowl, unless another BCS bowl picked it (see the selection rules here) for an at-large berth. And the way BCS bowls select at-large teams isn't based on merit -- it's based on ticket sales and selling hotel rooms. So a No. 5 Stanford team might get passed over for a No. 9 Iowa team with two losses.

The second issue is the competitive depth of the Pac-10. There are a lot of scenarios where the conference ends up with fewer than six bowl-eligible teams. Go through your schedule and figure out how many teams get to six or seven wins -- and remember that USC is only a spoiler because it isn't eligible for the postseason due to NCAA sanctions.

On the other hand, it's also possible that the NCAA will be forced to grant waivers to allow a, say, 6-6 Arizona State team with two FCS victories to play in a bowl game, rather than resorting to 5-7 teams to fill contracted bowl slots.

We shall see.

• Tostitos BCS National Championship Game: Oregon vs. BCS team
• Rose Bowl Game: No Pac-10 team
• Valero Alamo: Stanford vs. Big 12
• Bridgepoint Education Holiday: Arizona vs. Big 12
• Hyundai Sun: Washington vs. ACC
• MAACO Las Vegas: Oregon State vs. Mountain West
• Kraft Fight Hunger: California vs. WAC

What did we learn in the Pac-10's opening week?

1. Pac-10 quarterbacks were as advertised (mostly): While the level of competition varied, the four Pac-10 quarterbacks who were showcased in New York and at ESPN put up huge numbers. USC's Matt Barkley, Arizona's Nick Foles, Washington's Jake Locker and Stanford's Andrew Luck combined to complete 72.5 percent of their throws, averaged 300 yards per game and threw 12 TD passes and just one interception (a Foles pass that bounced off his fullback's hands). Of course, Locker lost at BYU, turning the ball over on downs twice in the fourth quarter after incompletions.

2. New QBs were solid if unspectacular: Three conference QBs made their first career start. Oregon State's Ryan Katz was mostly solid against a good TCU defense, throwing for a pair of TDs with no interceptions, though completing just 9 of 25 passes isn't ideal. Oregon's Darron Thomas shook off an early interception to complete 13-of-23 for 220 yards with a TD in the blowout win over New Mexico. Finally, Arizona State's Steven Threet completed 14 of 21 passes for 239 yards with two TDs and an interception. While none of the three was gangbusters, each suggested he can get the job done.

3. The Mountain West strikes again: Thank God for New Mexico, otherwise the Mountain West Conference could crow about another strong showing versus the Pac-10. Washington fell at BYU and Oregon State went down to No. 6 TCU. Sure, both were road games. Sure, both were against two of the MWC top three teams. But many projected wins for the Pac-10 in both. The visit to BYU was supposed to be the launching point for Locker's Heisman Trophy campaign. Didn't happen, and suddenly the Huskies' high hopes entering the season are in question. And Oregon State was hoping to get off to a rare fast start with a strong showing against the Horned Frogs. Moreover, with UCLA's loss at Kansas State and Washington State's poor showing at Oklahoma State, the Big 12 also got into the act, pushing the conference around. Going 6-4 on the opening weekend was not what the Pac-10 wanted.

4. Play defense; win the conference: USC gave up 588 yards and 36 points at Hawaii. Bad. UCLA gave up 31 points and 313 rushing yards to Kansas State. Bad. Washington State surrendered 65 points and 544 yards at Oklahoma State. Yuck. Oregon State yielded 30 points and 278 rushing yards vs. TCU. Ugh. While Arizona, Arizona State, California, Oregon and Stanford probably feel good about their defensive numbers, the mostly poor competition leaves each with an incomplete. Clearly, there's a lot of offense in this conference. So whichever team can pair stops with points is going to win this thing.

5. FCS teams have no chance vs. the Pac-10: Arizona State, Cal and Stanford buried three FCS teams by a combined count of 168-29. While that's really not something to celebrate, at least one BCS conference can't say the same this morning.