ESPN College Football

SEC and Big 12 folks have been tweaking the Big Ten and Pac-12's love of the Rose Bowl of late. That made me grin because the primary motivation for those tweaks was jealousy.

Don't buy that assessment? Well, then what do you make of this: The SEC and Big 12 champions, starting in 2014 after the current BCS contract expires and we presumably adopt a four-team playoff, will meet annually in a prime time New Year's Day "bowl" game.

Unless, of course, the SEC and/or Big 12 champions are selected for the four-team playoff, which one is almost certain to be and both are likely to be.

But, if one or both is selected for the playoff, then, just like the Rose Bowl, a No. 2 team from both or either conference will be selected.

So the SEC and Big 12 have adopted the Rose Bowl model in its entirety. Other than the fact that they can't play in the Rose Bowl stadium as the sun goes down over the San Gabriel Mountains.

The location has not been set. The Sugar Bowl (SEC) and Fiesta Bowl (Big 12) already have a dog in this fight, but expect bids to come from Jerry Jones and his deluxe Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas, as well as a play from Atlanta.

By the way, the Rose Bowl jealousy stuff is mostly good-natured ribbing while I'm gaping at another sudden shift in college football's tectonic plates.

Folks, this stuff is amazing, and there's a stunning plot twist seemingly on a weekly basis -- Florida State to the Big 12? Notre Dame back in play?

The main take-away: This is a step closer to four power conferences, with the ACC and Big East finding their footing suddenly precarious.

And, if you want to worry, Pac-12 fans, it looks like the SEC and Big 12 are being far more aggressive -- read: expansionist -- as college football remakes itself. Keep in mind that the Pac-12 could have ended the Big 12 last September and become the first 16-team super-conference if Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech had made a jump.

Pac-12 presidents might end up regretting their decision not to expand -- and giving Oklahoma, in particular, the shaft. Newly enriched by a mega-TV deal, they might have lost track of the big picture while they were counting their money.

Commissioner Larry Scott has long held that further consolidation at the top of college football was inevitable. This is another example of him proving right, though this time without a blockbuster deal for Pac-12 folks to celebrate.

This latest news is a reason to get nervous. Or to just marvel at how quickly the game has changed.

Running back Ty Isaac (Joliet, Ill./Joliet Catholic) has committed to USC, picking the Trojans over numerous offers from across the country, including Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, Oklahoma and Notre Dame.

Isaac is ranked 68th on the ESPN Recruiting top 150. Rivals rates Issac as the No. 18 player in the nation and Scout has him ranked 12th.

Isaac, who could also play linebacker, is a power back at 6-foot-2, 215 pounds, but he also has good speed and elusiveness, according to his ESPN evaluation. Last winter, Isaac rushed for 516 yards and six touchdowns in the state championship game. As a junior, he rushed for 2,114 yards -- 11.9 yards per carry -- and scored 45 touchdowns.

Isaac is the Trojans' sixth commitment. They can only sign 15 players due to NCAA sanctions.

1. A seven-member majority of ACC schools came one vote shy of adding a $100,000 fine to the heap of penalties that the NCAA announced for North Carolina last month. That did not leave the majority happy. Neither will this: North Carolina announced that it has uncovered widespread academic fraud in its African and Afro-American Studies program, including classes in which a significant number of football and mens’s basketball players enrolled. But ACC commissioner John Swofford said in an email that the league “doesn’t review institutional reports of this kind.”

2. In case you missed it, on Tuesday night authors Buzz Bissinger and Malcolm Gladwell debated author Tim Green and sportswriter Jason Whitlock on whether college football should be banned (Yes, banned). Bissinger and Gladwell “won” the debate, the sponsor said, because surveys taken of the audience indicated more people sided with them afterward than before. The debate took place at NYU, which means, if nothing else, Bissinger/Gladwell understand home field. If they want to impress somebody with the sparkle of their intellects, hold the next debate at Ohio State. Or Texas. Or Alabama….

3. Dozens of football players who can’t crack a lineup at a football power transfer down a rung or two on the FBS ladder so that they can play. A few make lateral moves because of family concerns or scheme changes. But it’s hard to recall a player like Fresno State junior Jalen Saunders, an All-WAC wide receiver who is climbing up the ladder to Oklahoma. Saunders, who didn’t like his role in the spread offense installed by new Bulldogs coach Tim DeRuyter, will be eligible for the Sooners in 2013.

At the Pac-12 meetings last week in Phoenix, it became clear that conference coaches and athletic directors as well as commissioner Larry Scott favor a potential four-team college football playoff including a requirement that each of the four participants wins its respective conference championship.

The reasoning for that is logical and unassailable: A national title contender should first prove it's the best team in its conference. College football folks -- coaches, administrators, etc. -- frequently talk about preserving the value of the regular season. Not requiring a playoff team to win its conference directly contravenes that.

On the other side of the playoff debate are the folks who don't want any such requirements. They say introducing one muddies things up. They say it's important to pick the "four best teams." Keep it simple and credible!

Four best teams? Er, how will we determine that? The ole BCS rankings? A selection committee?

Not acceptable.

There needs to be give and take here. If the Pac-12 and Big Ten are going to sacrifice their automatic tie-in to the Rose Bowl, that means they need to get something in return. Thankfully, Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany already has proposed an equitable plan that allows for both sides of this debate to get most of what they want.

It's the top-six plan: Conference champions would be required to be ranked in the top six of the final rankings in order to earn automatic berths in the four-team playoff. If four conference champions aren't ranked in the top six, then the highest ranked at-large teams would fill however many voids there are.

CBS Sports' Brett McMurphy went through all the scenarios. He found that, since 2004, only seven top-four teams in the final BCS standings would have missed the playoffs with this top-six plan.

Writes McMurphy:

Under this format, in the past eight years, 30 of the 32 teams in the playoff would have been conference champions. Only two teams -- No. 2 Alabama (in 2011) and No. 4 Ohio State (in 2005) -- that weren't a conference champion would have qualified for the national semifinals.

Using the conference affiliation for the schools for each season and not their future affiliation, the SEC would have had the most schools in the playoffs from 2004-11 with eight, including seven conference champions. The Pac-12 and Big 12 would have been next, each with six schools, followed by the Big Ten with five (four conference champions, one at-large), the Mountain West with four, the Big East with two and the ACC with one.

Of the Mountain West's four representatives, two were by Utah, now in the Pac-12, and two by TCU, which joins the Big 12 this fall.

That sounds about right.

The teams left out? Stanford and Texas, both twice, and Alabama, Michigan and LSU.

That sounds about right.

The best scenario to look at is 2008. From McMurphy's breakdown:

Top 6 ranked teams: No. 1 Oklahoma (Big 12 champ), No. 2 Florida (SEC champ), No. 3 Texas (at-large), No. 4 Alabama (at-large), No. 5 USC (Pac-10 champ), No. 6 Utah (Mountain West champ).

Conference champs in four-team playoff: No. 1 Oklahoma, No. 2 Florida, No. 5 USC, No. 6 Utah.

Non-conference champs in four-team playoff: None.

Top-6 teams left out: No. 3 Texas, No. 4 Alabama.

Revisionist history: The good news is that the top four conference champions are all ranked among the nation's top six teams. The bad news is No. 3 Texas and No. 4 Alabama, both of which didn't win their conference, would not be included in the playoff. Lower ranked, but conference champion, USC (No. 5) and Utah (No. 6) would have made the field.

In 2008, the top-six model would have created a far superior postseason. The most likely scenario would have seen USC, clearly the best team in 2008, beating Utah, which physically manhandled Alabama 31-17 in the Sugar Bowl, for the national title.

Wait ... did I just pull one of those "Just because" deals there, making assumptions about how good a team is?

Yes, I did. Most folks outside of the Southeast -- including Vegas bookies -- believed USC was the best team in 2008. It finished the regular season with the same record as Florida and Oklahoma, but its loss on the road against an Oregon State team that won nine games was deemed worse than the Gators' and Sooners' blemishes. That judgment was arbitrary and ran counter to what many folks believed: The Trojans in 2008 would have left a bootprint on the foreheads of either Florida or Oklahoma.

And, of course, when Utah held Alabama to 208 total yards -- 31 yards rushing! -- it's nearly impossible to say the Crimson Tide belonged in the same building. Oh, that's right, an Alabama team playing in its first BCS bowl game since 1999 was SO disappointed that it lost the SEC title game that it decided not to try hard in the Sugar Bowl. Please.

Of course, this analysis is bothering some folks. Good. That's how the "Just because" stuff felt for the Trojans in 2008 and for Oklahoma State last year. The most certain way to ensure the new four-team playoff will foment annual controversy is to make the "Just because" element its foundation. We'll still be debating the subjectivity -- and inherent biases -- of the system for weeks as the season winds down.

See, out here on the West Coast, the top-six plan seems simple. It seems fair. It doesn't muddy anything up. It actually provides clarity: Win your conference.

It first tries to award the highest-rated conference champions for, you know, accomplishing something during the regular season, then it makes sure that we don't end up with a three-loss team in the playoff.

It's the best and most equitable endgame in the four-team playoff scenario. And the Pac-12 and Big Ten should fight for it.

Max Browne (Sammamish, Wash./Skyline), the nation's top-rated prep quarterback, committed to USC on Wednesday night, picking the Trojans over Alabama, Oklahoma and Washington.

Browne, 6-foot-5, 205 pounds, completed 70 percent of his passes for 4,034 yards and 45 touchdowns in 2011.

National signing day in is Feb. 6, 2013.

Here's the Seattle Times on Brown's decision, which is a major blow to Washington's in-state recruiting.

Browne is the second consecutive elite QB from Skyline High School, a Washington state prep powerhouse, to opt to leave the state instead of signing with the Huskies. Jake Heaps signed with BYU over the hometown Huskies in 2010. Heaps has since transferred to Kansas.

Working off of Mark Schlabach's most recent "way-too-early" top 25, Brian Fremeau looked at the top five teams on Schlabach's ranking and decided to pick apart the holes.

Topping that list are the USC Trojans.

Fremeau on the Trojans:

Generating consistency and dominance on defense needs to be the point of emphasis this spring. The Trojans forced three-and-outs on only 32 percent of opponent drives last year, the 70th-best rate in the nation. All 10 BCS bowl team defenses last season were better at getting opponent offenses off the field more quickly. (The other four teams in this article [Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma and Georgia] were much better at forcing three-and-outs, each ranked in the top 12 in this metric last season). Those extended drives were a major liability in USC's losses to Stanford and Arizona State last year -- the Trojans gave up 92 offensive points on only 26 non-garbage opponent drives.

Offensively, there isn't much to complain about other than the current vacancies at left tackle and fullback. And the defense should continue to improve under Monte Kiffin's tutelage.

Naturally, there are holes to fill -- specifically on the defensive line, where some shuffling is bound to happen in order to replace Christian Tupou, DaJohn Harris and Nick Perry. But the fact that safety T.J. McDonald decided to return -- thus giving the back seven another full year together -- bodes well for USC's defense to make more strides next season.

Our Will Harris took a look at the odds for next season's BCS title contenders. He divided 17 teams into three categories: favorites, contenders and longshots.

With 20-to-1 odds, Notre Dame falls into the contender category, joining Arkansas, Clemson, Michigan, Texas and Virginia Tech. Among teams from that group, Harris likes the Hokies' chances to emerge from the pack as a darkhorse title contender in 2012:

The Clemson defense that was vaporized by West Virginia in the Orange Bowl is an unlikely candidate for a quick fix, and as mentioned earlier, we want proven coaching for title futures. We're optimistic about Mack Brown's total overhaul at Texas, but Year 2 is too soon and there's still a black hole at quarterback.

At a little better price the Razorbacks would have our attention. Arkansas is a strong program with a top-10 coach. Bobby Petrino's regime will overtake LSU this year, and the man who went 41-9 at Louisville will eventually bring at least one SEC title to Fayetteville. This could certainly be the year, as the schedule is favorable, but a trio of new coordinators and a rebuilt receiving corps are reasons for caution.

Like Arkansas, Michigan and Notre Dame are on the rise behind excellent coaching, but the best of this group for 2012 looks like Virginia Tech. With Bobby Bowden gone, this is Frank Beamer's ACC. A national title is the only hole in Beamer's résumé, and he is setting up for one more run behind quarterback Logan Thomas. This will not be an experienced offense, particularly along the line, but the skill position talent is outstanding and the bulk of the defense returns. Virginia Tech is a physical, disciplined team that knows its identity. This program is a constant threat to post an unbeaten season, and at 25 to 1, the Hokies are the most appealing play on the board.

Irish opponents USC and Oklahoma fall into the favorite category, with odds of 8-to-1 and 12-to-1, respectively.

Surprisingly enough, Michigan has worse odds than Notre Dame, at 25-to-1. The Wolverines have had a higher preseason ranking than the Irish in virtually every way-too-early 2012 poll.

Our Mark Schlabach took another crack at his way-too early top 25 today. In response, we'll try again to rank Notre Dame's 2012 opponents.

1. USC (Nov. 24, away): Virtually every early outlook has the Trojans slated as the preseason No. 1 or No. 2 team, and rightfully so. Matt Barkley enters 2012 as the Heisman front-runner and USC will return to the familiar position of having the target on its back throughout the season.

2. Oklahoma (Oct. 27, away): Considering Notre Dame is the only current official, penned-in game that is absolutely going to happen for the Big 12 favorites next season, I'd imagine the Sooners would get up for that.

3. Michigan State (Sept. 15, away): A growing defense will keep Sparty plowing ahead in Year 6 of the Mark Dantonio era, which may just begin with MSU as the Big Ten favorite.

4. Michigan (Sept. 22, home): A number of early polls suggest Michigan as the leading Big Ten contender, but I think some of its losses on defense will be tough to replace. Nonetheless, any team with Denard Robinson under center has a chance to make big things happen, as Notre Dame fans are all too aware of.

5. Stanford (Oct. 13, home): Who needs Andrew Luck when you have that much time in the pocket? Throw anyone under center behind that offensive line and he'll have all the time he needs to make something happen.

6. Miami (Oct. 6, Chicago): The Hurricanes make the biggest jump from the last time we looked at the Irish's opponents. An experienced defense and a great recruiting year for Al Golden suggest this program is back on the rise, pending NCAA sanctions.

7. BYU (Oct. 20, home): I said it before and I'll say it again: If Riley Nelson has a big year, watch out.

8. Purdue (Sept. 8, home): This contest scares me if I'm an Irish fan. First game back from what is sure to be an exhausting season-opening trip in Dublin, with a hungry in-state rival waiting for them and looking to build on momentum following a strong 2011 finish and weak 2012 opener (Eastern Kentucky).

9. Wake Forest (Nov. 17, home): Jim Grobe teams usually perform better than they should, but the Deacs must recover from a weak finish in 2011.

10. Boston College (Nov. 10, away): No more Luke Kuechly means happier offenses everywhere. The Eagles just hope that means theirs, too, which will be in its first year under coordinator Doug Martin.

11. Navy (Sept. 1, Dublin): The Midshipmen have a brutal start to the 2012 schedule, facing the Irish in Dublin before going to Happy Valley to face Penn State, but things get easier afterward. Can they put the awful luck of 2011 behind them and beat the beatable opponents?

12. Pitt (Nov. 3, home): Paul Chryst seems like the right fit, but asking him to lift the Panthers out of their underachieving ways in Year 1 is a bit much.

ESPN The Magazine and RecruitingNation compiled the past five years (2007-11) of ESPNU 150 rankings and then crowned college football's top 10 recruiting programs.

Here's how they did it:

Our methodology was simple: We re-tallied the scores following signing day and ranked the schools based on total number of ESPNU 150 recruits (there have been 900) hauled in over the last six years. Of course, like success on the field, recruiting is cyclical -- and fans of programs both on and off this list might look back on Feb. 1, 2012 as the day their team began its rise (or fall) on the trail.

Here's the top-10.

1. Florida
2. Texas
3. USC
4. Alabama
5. Florida State
6. Notre Dame
T-7. Georgia
t-7: LSU
9. Miami
T-10. Ohio State
T-10. Oklahoma

Here's what it says about USC:

Top states: California (36), Florida (six), Arizona (four)
Surprise state: Georgia (three)
Sure, the Trojans have California locked up. But USC has also signed four of Arizona's 12 ESPNU 150 prospects and Georgia's second-best preps in 2008 (WR Brice Butler of Norcross) and 2010 (WR Markeith Ambles of McDonough). In 2012, USC signed seven ESPNU 150 commits -- OT Zach Banner (Lakewood, Wash.) was the lone out-of-state recruit.

(USC actually signed three out-of-state recruits, including receiver Nelson Agholor and DT Leonard Williams, who are both from Florida).

What's clear from this list: Sometimes teams with lots of ESPNU 150 players produce on the field (Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma, Ohio State) and sometimes they do not (Florida, Texas, Florida State, Notre Dame and Miami).

Florida is 15-11 over the past two seasons, when these highly rated classes should have been peaking. Texas is 13-12 over the same span. Miami has lost fewer than six games just once since 2007. Notre Dame's best years came the past two seasons -- both 8-5. Florida State has averaged 4.8 losses since 2007. Georgia was 10-4 this season, but it was a combined 14-12 in 2009 and 2010. Ohio State probably can be forgiven its 6-7 finish this year, based on the NCAA issues and firing of coach Jim Tressel. Oklahoma's lone blip was an 8-5 campaign in 2009. USC's "downturn" came in 2009 and 2010 when the Trojans went 17-9.

Conclusions?

Well, it's possible that Florida recruiting -- as good as it is -- is overrated. Perhaps the same can be said for Texas. Or at least these four programs -- Florida, Florida State, Miami and Texas -- aren't doing the best job of evaluating their wealth of in-state talent.

Coverage from around RecruitingNation:

DawgNation
Josh Harvey-Clemons talks about why he’s a Dawg: After months of exhaustive visits and speculation, top Peach State player Josh Harvey-Clemons, the nation's No. 1 outside linebacker prospect, went with his heart and chose to sign with Georgia.

GatorNation
Florida’s NSD filled with big misses: As the ink on the letters of intent began to dry and faxes started pouring in, the hopes for a No. 1-ranked class faded.

GeauxTigerNation
Plenty to like about LSU’s class: LSU missed out on defensive end Torshiro Davis, but finished strong by signing linebacker Kwon Alexander, the No. 29 overall prospect. Les Miles considers his 2012 class, ranked No. 14 in the nation, full of talent and potential.

HornsNation
Davis commitment caps Texas' big finish: The surprise signing-day commitment of Torshiro Davis capped a big finish for the Texas Longhorns.

SoonerNation
Going national: Stoops, Norvell see positives of recruiting nationally and it pays off with an elite recruiting class.

TideNation
Tears end Landon Collins’ recruiting drama: Landon Collins, the nation’s No. 1 safety, had a wacky recruiting experience. Collins is from Louisiana and his mother, April Justin, wanted him to go to LSU. But Collins committed to Alabama earlier this month, which didn’t sit well with mom. Collins stuck with the Tide, however, and signed on Wednesday.

WeAreSC
USC happy about 2012 recruiting class: Lane Kiffin gives his views on USC's 2012 recruiting class, the first class affected by NCAA sanctions.

WolverineNation
Hoke sour on social media: The Michigan coach says he doesn’t use Facebook, Twitter or even email. No email? “If I want to talk to you, I’ll call.”

RecruitingNation
Best laid plans: On a day for celebration, there were no hats or press conferences for Jameis Winston. The nation's top quarterback, a Florida State commit, is doing signing day his own way.

Receiver Nelson Agholor (Berkley Prep, Tampa, Fla.) has announced he will sign with USC.

Agholor, 6-foot-1, 180 pounds, the nation's No. 6 receiver and No. 47 overall on the ESPNU 150, picked the Trojans over Florida, Florida State, Oklahoma and Notre Dame.

1. It’s impossible to know whether Gunner Kiel will turn into the Next Great Notre Dame Quarterback or just another guy. But the last-minute decision by Kiel, from Columbus, Ind., to spurn LSU and drive to the South Bend campus only three hours from home is a warming balm for Irish fans frustrated with the pace of head coach Brian Kelly’s progress. A pair of 8-5s is noticeably lacking in face cards. Notre Dame endorsed Kelly a few days ago by adding two years to his contract. Kiel endorsed him by showing up.

2. USF announced the other day that it has scheduled a home-and-home with Nevada, beginning with a trip to Reno on Sept. 8. The Wolf Pack will play in Tampa in 2015. That’s a nice get by the Bulls, but they buried the lead. More important is that in 2012, as it did three years ago, USF will play Florida State and Miami. They also played Florida and Miami in 2010. As the Big East and ACC struggle to create schedules in the wake of their realignment, here’s hoping USF continues to play the state’s bigger names.

3. Speaking of which: here are the five most interesting intersectional games for next season, excluding the traditional non-conference rivalries: Boise State at Michigan State on Fri., Aug. 31; Alabama vs. Michigan in Cowboys Stadium on Sept. 1; West Virginia at Florida State on Sept. 8; Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati at FedEx Field on Sept. 29; Notre Dame at Oklahoma on Oct. 27.

Woke up thinking about Oregon quarterback Darron Thomas' surprising decision to enter the NFL draft.

We wrote last night it was a "terrible," decision, and based on things at present, it would be difficult to argue that it was a good decision.

We may have overstated things saying that Thomas won't get drafted. For one, Thomas is a winner. He's 23-3 as a starter. And, despite some mechanical issues and runs of inaccuracy, he still finished ranked 11th in the nation in passing efficiency, though some might argue the dominance of the Ducks' run-first scheme made for some wide-open opportunities in the passing game.

Bottom line: All it takes is for one general manager to fall in love with him. Perhaps there are coaches out there who want to run more shotgun, spread-option elements.

Further, we don't know Thomas' situation. There could be personal reasons he's taking this seemingly premature leap of faith in himself, though he didn't provide any such insights to ESPN's Joe Schad during a phone conversation Saturday night. He already has his degree, so that certainly satisfies one potential tweak from observers.

A couple of you reasonably commented in the mailbag that Thomas probably wouldn't solve his issues -- mechanical or otherwise -- during his senior year if he hadn't already, therefore his stock likely won't get much higher.

I'd add that the recent decisions of USC QB Matt Barkley and Oklahoma QB Landry Jones to return for their senior seasons makes this QB draft class fairly thin after Stanford's Andrew Luck and Baylor's Robert Griffin III. This likely was also noted by Arizona State's Brock Osweiler, who surprised some with his decision to leave early.

You tick off the top 10 QBs and things start to get thin pretty early. Considering 12 QBs were drafted last spring, Thomas certainly has a solid shot to be a late-round pick.

But Thomas would have benefited from coming back, and I strongly feel he would have improved his draft status.

For one, yes, he could improve his accuracy and mechanics. While some insist you can't improve accuracy after a certain point, keep in mind accuracy is a two-way street. Do you think Oklahoma State quarterback Brandon Weeden's 72 percent completion percentage would have been any lower if he didn't have wide receiver Justin Blackmon? Yes, you do. The Ducks should be better and deeper at receiver next season -- assuming the talented redshirt freshmen come through -- and that might have helped Thomas boost his 62 percent completion percentage.

Further, completing a body of work matters. If the Ducks won another BCS bowl next January, and Thomas improved to, say, 36-4 as a starter -- and maybe completed 66 percent of his passes in 2012 -- the evidence on the "winner" side counterbalancing the "he's a spread-option guy with questionable mechanics" would have been much heavier. Three years of success playing quarterback in the Pac-12 would have been far more impressive than two years.

Schad reported that Thomas signed with agent Drew Rosenhaus, which means the deal is done. There won't be any backtracking.

But it also means that one of the top agents in the NFL believes in Thomas. So maybe what will end up being "terrible" about this decision will be our initial reaction?

With 2011 in the rearview mirror, here is an early look at Notre Dame's 2012 opponents, with the game date and site in parantheses.

1. USC (Nov. 24, away): Matt Barkley's return makes the Trojans a trendy preseason national title pick and Barkley a likely preseason Heisman frontrunner. They host the Irish in the regular-season finale, and how sweet it would be for Notre Dame should they knock their rivals off with the highest stakes on the line.

2. Oklahoma (Oct. 27, away): Like the Trojans, the Sooners return their prized quarterback (Landry Jones) and will, at the very least, enter 2012 as the Big 12 favorite.

3. Michigan State (Sept. 15, away): Kirk Cousins and Keshawn Martin are gone, but the Spartans return four offensive linemen and plenty of production on the defensive side of the ball as they go for a third-straight 11-win season.

4. Michigan (Sept. 22, home): Denard Robinson and several key skill players likely return, but the Wolverines lose a lot on each line and will rely on several young players to fill the void.

5. Stanford (Oct. 13, home): Perhaps the biggest mystery entering 2012. We just don't know how much this team will drop off following the likely loss of Andrew Luck. Time will tell.

6. BYU (Oct. 20, home): Another wild card. Much will depend on the growth of dual-threat QB Riley Nelson and the Cougars' offense.

7. Purdue (Sept. 8, home): The Boilermakers finished 2011 with back-to-back wins for the first time this season and have a bit of momentum under Danny Hope. Some see them as a darkhorse Leaders Division contender in 2012.

8. Miami (Oct. 6, Chicago): The Hurricanes will likely be led by a defense that returns eight starters for Al Golden's second year.

9. Wake Forest (Nov. 17, home): Quarterback Tanner Price is back, but the Demon Deacons must eliminate the mistakes that cost them five of their final six games and two assistants their jobs.

10. Boston College (Nov. 10, away): The Eagles got better as the season went on and hope new offensive coordinator Doug Martin can bring the unit up to speed with the defense, which loses Luke Kuechly.

11. Navy (Sept. 1, Dublin): Can Trey Miller build off 2011, when he was forced in midseason for the injured Kriss Proctor?

12. Pitt (Nov. 3, home): New coach Paul Chryst will have his work cut out for him on a team with quarterback, protection and, at least in the past calendar year, coaching issues.

After six consecutive national titles, it's clear the path to the national championship goes through the SEC. But ESPN's Brock Huard believes he's found the team to break the string.

USC.

Huard lists five reasons: 1. The abundance of talent; 2. The level of production; 3. The surroundings and the schedule; 4. The improving defense; 5. The Barkley factor.

USC's case is strong and Huard makes it. No team will approach the top-level skill talent the Trojans have on offense with QB Matt Barkley, WRs Robert Woods and Marqise Lee and RB Curtis McNeal. There are NFL teams that would trade with USC straight up with those four spots. And you probably could throw in the tight end combination of Xavier Grimble and Randall Telfer, too.

Yes, the defense, with eight starters back, should take a step from solid to good in 2012. And, yes, the schedule sets up well, with both Notre Dame and Oregon coming to the Coliseum.

But there is one major issue: depth. The sort of players USC recruits don't like to think of themselves as "depth," which is why they often leave when it's clear they are backups or reserves. The latest is WR Kyle Prater, a once-touted recruit who fell behind due to injuries and being less good than his recruiting pedigree. The Trojans previously lost RB Amir Carlisle, who's transferring to Notre Dame, and RB Dillon Baxter, who fell afoul of coach Lane Kiffin. It also appears that WR Brice Butler is leaving.

The point: Things are thin behind Woods, Lee and McNeal. And they are even more worrisome on the lines. Sure, the Trojans welcome back four starters on the offensive line but there's a significant step back on the second team. Further, the defensive line is replacing three starters, though the depth there is better.

The most important thing for USC next fall is simple: staying healthy. The Trojans' likely starting 22 as it stands today will be a tough match for any team, SEC or otherwise. But the difference between the 2012 Trojans and, say, the 2004 version, is a lack of A-list depth.

USC is a almost certain preseason top-five team in 2012, along with LSU, Alabama, Oregon and probably Oklahoma. And if things fall into place, we might finally have that USC versus the SEC national title game we've been lacking in the BCS era, for whatever reason.

Of course, Oregon fans might have some thoughts on this.