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Last spring, Arizona State began a marketing campaign that hinted at mysterious change, "It's time," we were told. And again.

Then, in April, the school introduced new uniforms and a new pitchfork logo. Reviews were mostly positive, other than those coming from Arizona fans and some grumps out there who don't like change.

But the campaign wasn't over. We were still told, "It's time."

True. The football program has made a cosmetic change. Fine. Now what about making a change from being poor-to-middling and actually winning a conference title?

Enter No. 21 Missouri. Opportunity is knocking. It's time to answer. But will the Sun Devils be up to high expectations?

"This is a game that has been circled on our schedule for a long time," quarterback Brock Osweiler said. "Just like our school slogan says, 'It's time.' It's time for us to win a big game at home."

Arizona State hasn't posted a winning season since 2007, when it went 10-3 in coach Dennis Erickson's debut. They've lost their past 10 games against top-25 teams. Over the past two years, the Sun Devils have displayed an uncanny knack for finding ways to lose, inspiring lots of, "What might have been?"

In 2009, they lost four games by five or fewer points. In 2010, they lost four games by four or fewer points, including squandered opportunities versus Wisconsin, Stanford and USC. They somehow managed to stay within 11 points of Oregon -- one of three teams to do so -- despite seven turnovers.

It's time for the costly sloppiness to end and winning to begin.

Of course, one game doesn't make a season. But one game can indicate where a season is going. Arizona Republic columnist Paola Boivin pointed out an interesting factoid this week: Four times since 1980, the Sun Devils posted victories over ranked nonconference foes. Wrote

Boivin:
In those seasons, ASU finished with a combined record of 37-9-1 and went to three bowl games, including two Rose Bowls. In the six seasons with losses against non-conference ranked teams in September, the combined record was an incredibly mediocre 34-33-2.

So, yeah, it's time, and one game just might make a season.

"We think we have a chance to be pretty good, but we’ll know more about us after that football game," Erickson said.

Further, Missouri has suffered through injury woes that match -- even exceed -- the Sun Devils, which is a good reason the ranked team is more than a touchdown underdog. The Tigers won't have seven projected starters available. The Sun Devils count on that is six, if you include QB Steven Threet but not running back Deantre Lewis.

Arizona State is trying to make this a big evening in Tempe. It will don all-back uniforms for the first time, and fans are being encouraged to wear all-back in order to create a "black out" in the stands.

Yes, there are a lot of cosmetic things going on with the Sun Devils. But the bottom line of "It's time," isn't about a new logo or fancypants uniforms.

Said Erickson, "As I’ve said many times, it’s not the (uniforms), it’s who’s in the (uniforms)."

And it's time for those guys to make a statement.

Injuries are part of the game, coaches will tell you. That doesn't make them any less of a drag.

And no team is dragging more with injuries than Arizona State, which lost senior linebacker Brandon Magee for the season Saturday due to a ruptured Achilles tendon.

Magee is not only a returning starter, there's also this from the Arizona Republic:

Defensive coordinator Craig Bray recently told The Republic that Magee was the team's best defensive player last season.

Over the past week, Magee had seemed to take a greater leadership role on the field, barking at the first-team defense to get to the ball and to work through fatigue.

Magee also is one of the "Centennial Threesome" with fellow LBs Vontaze Burfict and Shelly Lyons. He and Lyons keep pretty busy helping the volatile Burfict maintain an even keel.

Perhaps no team in the county expected to contend for a national ranking has suffered as much roster attrition as the Sun Devils since the end of 2010. QB Steven Threet (retired due to recurrent concussions), QB Samson Szakacsy (left team), DT Lawrence Guy (entered NFL draft), CB Omar Bolden (knee), WR T.J. Simpson (knee), DE James Brooks (left team) and RB Deantre Lewis (gunshot wound). And since the beginning of camp, linebacker Oliver Aaron suffered a high-ankle sprain, backup defensive tackle Joita Te'i suffered a foot injury that will sideline him for seven weeks and cornerback Devan Spann dislocated his left shoulder two times in the first week of practice.

And now Magee.

Despite all this, the Sun Devils still have the makings of a good team. Just not as good of a team as they had when they walked off the field Dec. 2 after beating rival Arizona.

In 2008, the then-Pac-10 blog noted that "If you Google 'Arizona State' and 'sleeping giant,' 3,400 articles come up."

If you did it this week, you get 85,900 results (in 0.23 seconds! Technology rocks! Though it doesn't seem as if all the matches are relevant, Google).

In 2008, we wrote, "If a Pac-10 team has a chance to break USC's choke-hold on the conference title -- or at least to regularly challenge the Trojans for the top spot -- it's the Sun Devils."

Drrrrrr.

We were wrong. Somehow I want to blame Chip Kelly.

We are considering programs that are "teases" in the Pac-12, which my new boss, Ruthless Reynolds, described as "teams that always look great in the preseason only to underwhelm when play starts."

Sun Devils, why can't we quit you?

Well, lots of reasons.

You have the only coach in the conference who's won a national title in Dennis Erickson. As a resident of north Scottsdale living in the shadow of Black Mountain, I can confirm that the weather -- though a bit toasty in the summer -- is just about perfect eight months of the year. Tempe is just a short flight from the recruiting hotbed of Southern California. The, er, scene at Arizona State strikes this codger as something that might appeal to an average 18- or 19-year-old male. Academic standards don't typically limit recruiting options.

And the program has been there before, becoming a national power in the 1970s under Frank Kush and then again in the 1996 season, when it lost a national title in a thrilling Rose Bowl defeat to Ohio State.

Still, it's one of the great questions in college football: Why doesn't Arizona State win more consistently?

Of late, the Sun Devils have typically underperform compared to expectations. In four of the past six years, they've finished below where they were picked in the Pac-10 preseason media poll, most notably in 2008 -- that year! -- when they were picked second in the conference but finished sixth with a 5-7 record.

To be fair, though, they've eclipsed their preseason prediction in two of the four years -- 2007 and 2010 -- under Erickson.

And so we have 2011.

The Pac-12 blog started touting Arizona State as a 2011 contender before last season was done. Why? It wasn't just that the Sun Devils went nose-to-nose with some of the best teams in the country -- Oregon, Wisconsin, Stanford -- it was coaches from other teams specifically noting how talented the Sun Devils were.

Then you looked at the 2010 depth chart: Everyone was coming back. Seriously: The only senior starters last year were receiver Kerry Taylor and defensive tackle Saia Falahola.

Wow. To be honest, my thought process immediately saw 6-6 in 2010 and thought Rose Bowl shot in 2011.

But after a nice finish to the 2010 season, little has gone right for the Sun Devils. Defensive tackle Lawrence Guy made a poor decision and entered the NFL draft. Quarterback Steven Threet was forced to retire due to concussions. Fellow quarterback Samson Szakacsy left the team. Unanimous All-Pac-10 cornerback Omar Bolden blew out his knee at the beginning of spring practices, followed shortly thereafter by top returning receiver T.J. Simpson. Starting defensive end James Brooks quit, and the status of talented running back Deantre Lewis (gunshot wound) remains up in the air as he might redshirt this season.

That's five starters, a co-starter (Lewis) and an experienced backup quarterback. So, Sun Devils fans, you have a ready-made excuse if the season falls short of expectations and you end up only wondering what might have been.

That said, Arizona State, despite these major personnel losses, is still good enough to win the South Division. It also helps, by the way, that USC's ineligibility means it's only a five-team race among squads that each have significant holes.

But every time you start to think they'll be OK, something else happens, such as All-American linebacker Vontaze Burfict fighting a receiver he outweighs by 50 pounds in the locker room last week, or linebacker Oliver Aaron suffering a high ankle sprain, or backup defensive tackle Joita Te'i suffering a foot injury that will sideline him for seven weeks.

Still, 28 seniors back in the locker room, five starters back on the offensive line, Burfict leading impressive talent in the front seven, an underrated running back in Cameron Marshall and a quarterback in Brock Osweiler who looks ready to lead.

Sun Devils, why can't we quit you?

Typically, every preseason features a handful of quarterback competitions, even if we sort of feel like we know who will ultimately emerge.

Last fall, there was uncertainty at Arizona State, Colorado and Oregon.

At the end of the 2010 season, it looked like there would be plenty of ongoing quarterback intrigue. Arizona State was expected to feature another showdown with Steven Threet and Brock Osweiler. California was completely wide open with the departure of Kevin Riley. There was a new coach at Colorado, Jon Embree, who said every job was open. UCLA clearly had no clear No. 1. Washington had to replace Jake Locker.

But most of the mysteries were solved by the end of spring practices.

Threet was forced to retire because of multiple concussions, thereby handing the job to Osweiler. Cal coach Jeff Tedford surprised a few folks when he announced Zach Maynard had eclipsed Allan Bridgford and Brock Mansion. It was clear throughout spring drills that Tyler Hansen was the Buffaloes' best option. And Steve Sarkisian tapped Keith Price over Nick Montana before the spring game.

If you're looking for a potential source for making quarterback decisions before preseason camp, consider former USC coach Pete Carroll. He believed in "anointing" a starter after spring practices because he believed it helped them become leaders over the summer -- see Matt Leinart, John David Booty and Mark Sanchez. Notably, Sarkisian chatted with Carroll before tapping Price.

While coaches will still talk about competition, and it wouldn't be wise for any of these guys to take their job for granted, the only team with remaining uncertainty behind center is UCLA, and even then most would project a healthy Kevin Prince -- the incumbent starter who suffered a season-ending knee injury that also knocked him out of spring practice -- is the likely choice.

Still, let's look at where the Bruins' competition stands.

The candidates:

Kevin Prince: While Prince's passing numbers were horrid in his five 2010 games before getting hurt, he showed in 2009 that he can be a capable passer. And last fall, he showed he could do a pretty good job running a pistol offense. But Prince had suffered myriad injuries even before he hurt his knee last fall, and while he enters the preseason reportedly at 100 percent, keeping him healthy is the critical element for him to become a reliable starter. Recall that the Bruins' ragged start on offense in 2010 could be attributed to Prince not practicing until the week before the season opener -- an embarrassing loss to a Kansas State team the Bruins pushed around the previous season. So it's fair to expect less running -- or at least more running out of bounds -- for Prince. He will be given every opportunity to win the job.

Richard Brehaut: There's no other way to say it: While Brehaut didn't play terribly well after replacing Prince, his passing numbers were better than what Prince did in 2010. That fact has engendered some not unreasonable sentiments that coach Rick Neuheisel has some sort of issue with Brehaut, a summary of which is provided here by Adam Maya (by the way, former offensive coordinator Norm Chow doggedly believed Prince was a better option than Brehaut). While Neuheisel said it was "nothing personal," it is fairly clear that Neuheisel questions Brehaut's complete commitment, which is reflected in Brehaut's apparently incomplete absorption of the offense. Further, knowing Neuheisel and how he works with quarterbacks, I can tell you that those little tirades he seems to have with his quarterbacks after a bad play mostly amounts to Neuheisel asking the quarterback to explain what he was thinking. And if the player doesn't have an answer, it drives Neuheisel crazy. A bad explanation -- "I didn't see the safety cheating over" -- is way, way better than "I don't know."

Brett Hundley: Hundley is the hotshot incoming freshman -- one of the nation's top dual-threat prep quarterbacks during the 2010-11 recruiting season -- whom many fans have been making googly-eyes at. But it ain't easy going from high school quarterback to college quarterback, and it was clear during spring practices that Hundley had a ways to go (though he also had some "wow" moments, too). Hundley was a bit of a long shot in any event, but after he had surgery to repair a torn meniscus and will be out most of camp, his chances of redshirting are now higher than of him winning the starting job. Still, if he comes back strong, he could earn playing time. And if the situation gets desperate, Neuheisel, under pressure to win now, might roll the dice with a true freshman.

Nick Crissman and Darius Bell: These are the two long shots. Crissman's career has been riddled by shoulder injuries, but he had a fairly good spring and he's got some skills. Bell, a JC transfer, is a far better runner than passer. Many Bruins fans probably recall his regrettable debut in relief of Brehaut during a loss at Washington: 0-for-3 with an interception and a tongue-lashing from Neuheisel.

TEMPE, Ariz. -- Arizona State quarterback Brock Osweiler views himself as a "gamer," a guy who flips a switch on game day but may not always be at his best in practice. Sun Devils offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone views himself as a guy who thinks that's a load of, er, crud.

Mazzone wants to talk about practice. Not a game, not a game, not a game but practice.

"I said, 'Brock, I'm going to be honest with you. Don't give me this [crud] that you're a game player. That don't fly with me,'" Mazzone said. "To me, a guy who's not a great practice guy is a guy who can't focus."

Osweiler didn't get off to a great start this spring, but he and the offense played better as the practices rolled on. And, of course, Osweiler peaked in the spring game, throwing five touchdown passes, which inspired confidence that he can lead Arizona State to the top of the Pac-12 South Division next fall.

That's critical because Osweiler became the starter by default this offseason. After a tight battle last spring and preseason, Osweiler lost out to Michigan transfer Steven Threet. While Threet threw too many interceptions, he also led the second-best passing offense in the conference. He went down against UCLA in game 11 with his third concussion, and Osweiler was brilliant in relief and then beat arch-rival Arizona.

While many figured Osweiler would beat out Threet in the spring, Mazzone said that was far from certain. What is certain is Threet is standing on the Sun Devils' sidelines now, helping coach instead of competing for the starting job because of recurrent concussions.

That means Osweiler is the man, for better or worse. If he isn't up to the job the alternatives are two players with no experience: redshirt freshman Taylor Kelly and true freshman Mike Bercovici. For his part, Osweiler thinks he's a better quarterback today because of the disappointment of last year.

"Not winning the quarterback competition, it bettered me as a person and as a football player," he said. "It's easy to be the guy who goes in from day one and plays and gets what he wants. I think I grew as an athlete to be put in that competition situation and lose it because I learned so much from it."

Part of that was learning to practice well consistently.

"That's what [coach Dennis Erickson] and Coach Mazzone told me after last year: I need to show it in practice more: 'If you want to be the guy, you've got to be the guy in practice too,'" Osweiler said.

Part of this is symbolic: The quarterback needs to set an example for the team in practice. But Osweiler's lack of distinction in practice had another side-effect: His teammates didn't know what to make of him. More than a few thought the offense might be in trouble when Threet went down.

"It amazed me last year when they put him in," cornerback Deveron Carr said. "He was scrambling, throwing. I was amazed. I didn't know that Brock. I hadn't played against that Brock. I didn't remember that Brock coming to Arizona State. Something clicked in his heart or his mind that he could be great."

And now? Said Carr, "He's matured a lot. He makes better decisions. He looks stronger. He's just an all-around better quarterback."

Osweiler was mostly forgotten before he came on in relief for Threet against UCLA and led the Sun Devils back from a 17-0 deficit with a tour de force performance. He passed for 380 yards and four touchdowns and ran for another score as the Sun Devils rolled 55-17. The win over Arizona, however, was a bit deceiving. Osweiler was terrible in the first half and was fortunate to have a number of easy interceptions dropped. Further, if the Wildcats had not flubbed a pair of extra points the Sun Devils' smiles likely wouldn't have been so wide heading into the offseason.

Osweiler believes he's significantly better today than when he came off the bench last November.

"My skill set is almost night and day if you want to compare it to the Arizona game last year to right now," he said. "I put in a lot of hard work in the offseason to better than skill set."

Erickson and Mazzone said that Osweiler understands the offense better and has improved his mechanics, changing his throwing motion to speed up his release. While the 6-foot-8 Osweiler looks like a prototypical pocket passer, he runs a 4.7 40-yard dash. His 56 yards rushing in the win over Arizona were critical.

By the end of spring practices -- practices, not a game -- Erickson saw Osweiler putting it all together. "He just flowed better," Erickson said.

Of course, this fall, our measure of Osweiler and the Sun Devils will be what they do in the games, not practice.

TEMPE, Ariz. -- One hundred and twenty FBS football teams will head into the summer claiming they're going to be good next year. Most will be wrong, despite their insistence on unparalleled locker room chemistry.

Arizona State is no exception to the universal spring optimism, but there's some momentum behind the good feeling after a strong finish in 2010. Expectations are high in Tempe. How high? Buckle up.

"A lot of people are talking about the Rose Bowl," quarterback Brock Osweiler said. "But we're talking about the Sugar Bowl. That's how much confidence we have as a team."

Osweiler isn't talking about the Allstate Sugar Bowl, though. He's talking about the BCS title game. Really.

Arizona State hasn't posted a winning season since 2007, when it went 10-3 in Dennis Erickson's debut and inspired false hope that things would be easy under a pedigreed coach. Not so. Over the past few seasons, the Sun Devils have found ways to lose, and they were typically creative in doing so. Missed field goals and extra points, turnovers on the goal line, turnovers in extraordinary bunches, missed tackles, missed throws, missed opportunities. It was sometimes great theater, though redundant tragedy from the Sun Devils perspective.

In 2009, they lost four games by five or fewer points. In 2010, they lost four games by four or fewer points, including squandered opportunities versus Wisconsin and Stanford. They somehow managed to stay within 11 points of Oregon -- one of three teams to do so -- despite seven (seven!) turnovers.

But from that manure pile sprouts the flower of hope. The Sun Devils welcome back 17 starters that includes depth on the offensive line and loads of speed and skill on both sides of the ball. They look like a slight favorite in the first year of the Pac-12 South Division, even though two returning starters, cornerback Omar Bolden and receiver T.J. Simpson, went down with knee injuries this spring.

"Everybody has to be optimistic before the season starts, but this year it's like everybody just knows," receiver Gerell Robinson said. "It's not like a hope or a feeling. Everybody just knows that if we do what we're supposed to do, we'll get to where we want to be."

That high expectations are the top story is good news for Erickson, who would be the subject of hotseat talk otherwise. His fast start hid some roster shortcomings -- most notably a dearth of offensive linemen -- and fans had started to turn away as the mediocrity piled up. In 2007, the average attendance in Sun Devil Stadium was 62,875. Last fall, it was 47,943.

The players are aware there's pressure to win in 2011.

"It's like some negative energy that we're turning into a positive on the field because nobody wants to see a coaching staff change," cornerback Deveron Carr said.

Beyond returning a majority of starters from 2010, the Sun Devils are a veteran team: They will feature a 30-man "senior" class (players in their final year of eligibility). The offensive line welcomes back all five starters and many of the backups even have starting experience. The top-six rushers from last fall are back, as are four of the top-six receivers. On defense, the top-three tacklers are back as are the three leaders in sacks and tackles for a loss.

And these aren't just hacks. The Sun Devils averaged 32.2 points per game in 2010, which ranked third in the Pac-10, and ranked fifth in total and scoring defense.

"We have some experience coming back and we have a lot of confidence in what we are doing," Erickson said. "Our players have been through a lot the last three years, lost some close games. Now it's their chance to step up and make some plays."

The biggest question: Is Osweiler up to the job? After starter Steven Threet went down with his third concussion against UCLA, Osweiler was brilliant coming off the bench and then overcame a bad first half to beat arch-rival Arizona. It was expected to be a tight quarterback competition this spring, but Osweiler won the job by default when the recurrent concussions forced Threet to retire.

The offense struggled early in spring practices, but Osweiler inspired confidence with five touchdown passes in the spring game as the offense dominated.

"He made some great throws that make you go, 'Wow, that was amazing,'" left tackle Evan Finkenberg said.

While losing Bolden and Simpson was a big blow -- both could return by mid-season -- the pieces still appear to be in place for a run at the first Pac-12 title game. And one of those pieces is confidence.

"I think this team knows it's our time now," Finkenberg said. "We have the pieces in place to have a big season and do the things we want to do."

The first thing you look at when evaluating a college football team is experience at quarterback. Here's an interesting factoid about the Pac-12: All 12 teams welcome back at least one quarterback with starting experience.

Of course, not all starting experience is equal. Washington's Keith Price has one start on the road at Oregon, which doesn't match the 20-plus starts of passers such as Arizona's Nick Foles, Stanford's Andrew Luck or USC's Matt Barkley. Nor do Cal and UCLA fans likely take much comfort from the starting experience of their returning quarterbacks.

So who welcomes back a "quality" starter? Well, we were going to rate that at passing for 2,500 yards* in 2010, but then saw Oregon State's Ryan Katz threw for 2,401 in 12 games. Had the Beavers earned a bowl berth instead of finishing 5-7, Katz would have hit the benchmark. And then we noticed that Utah's Jordan Wynn passed for 2,334 yards in just 10 starts.

The Pac-12 blog, perhaps even more than the Pac-10 blog, values flexibility.

The general gist to be taken from this list is this: In 2002, six Pac-10 quarterbacks eclipsed the 3,000-yard mark. Don't be shocked if that many do it again in 2011.

Here's the list. And then we look at a few expected starters who almost certainly will reach the 2,500, er, 2,300 mark in 2011.

1. Andrew Luck, Stanford (3,338 yards): Luck likely would have been the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft on Thursday, so the Heisman Trophy runner-up is pretty darn good. Does he throw for more yards in 2011? Maybe. His receiving corps took a hit, as did his O-line. Still, the over-under for Luck has to be around 3,500 yards.

2. Nick Foles, Arizona (3,191): Foles is the Pac-12 quarterback most likely to eclipse the 4,000-yard mark for three reasons: 1. He's good; 2. His receivers are good; 3. There's little indication with five new starting O-linemen the Wildcats will be consistent in the running game.

3. Darron Thomas, Oregon (2,881): Would you bet against Thomas putting up better numbers in his second year as the starter under coach Chip Kelly? Neither would I, even though the Ducks' offensive line has been shaky enough this spring to raise some eyebrows. Thomas is going to need, however, some young receivers to step up.

4. Matt Barkley, USC (2,791): The guess here is Barkley dusts the 3,000-yard mark this fall. His offensive line struggled this spring, but the young receivers are talented and Barkley seems due for a breakthrough.

5. Jeff Tuel, Washington State (2,780): Tuel also seems like a sure-thing to eclipse the 3,000-yard mark. He's a third-year starter with a strong crew of receivers. If his protection is just a little better this fall than last -- and it should be -- he and the Cougs will scare folks with their passing attack.

6. Ryan Katz, Oregon State (2,401): Katz might have the strongest arm in the conference, and with a year of experience under his belt he figures to take a step forward in 2011. But his corps of receivers has health issues, starting with James Rodgers' knee injury. But if Rodgers, Markus Wheaton and Jordan Bishop are 100 percent, Katz should thrive.

7. Jordan Wynn, Utah (2,334): Considering Wynn averaged 230 yards passing per game in his 10 games, he was on his way to 3,000 yards passing. Further, if you recall his MVP effort in the Poinsettia Bowl versus California in 2009 -- 26 of 36 for 338 yards and three TDs -- you know he can toss the rock around. But he sat out spring practices due to a shoulder injury and we don't yet know how he will adjust to Norm Chow's pro-style offense.

As for the other five teams, three have not yet decided on a starter: California, UCLA and Washington, though the (slight) favorites at this point this spring are Zach Maynard for Cal, Kevin Prince for UCLA and Keith Price for Washington.

1. Brock Osweiler, Arizona State: Osweiler had 797 of the 3,437 yards the Sun Devils passed for in 2010. He looked good in relief of Steven Threet over the last two games of the season. Considering the strong, experienced supporting cast working in year two of Noel Mazzone's spread offense, you'd expect Osweiler to reach the 3,000-yard mark.

2. Tyler Hansen, Colorado: Hansen, a senior, has played in a lot of games but he's yet to put a full season together for whatever reason. The expectation shouldn't be for huge numbers in Eric Bieniemy's offense -- you'd expect the Buffaloes to be run-first with running back Rodney Stewart. Still, if Hansen plays 13 games, the guess here is he'll throw for at least 2,500 yards.

A year ago, Arizona State headed into spring practices with lots of questions, and most projected the Sun Devils were bound for the bottom third of the Pac-10. This week, the Sun Devils begin spring practices with few questions and expectations that they should win the first Pac-12 South title.

Expectations do not win football games, but 18 returning starters from a team that went 6-6 and pushed three top-10 teams to the brink -- Wisconsin, Oregon and Stanford -- is a reasonable foundation for optimism.

Of course, there are still issues, starting with quarterback Brock Osweiler asserting himself as the leader of the offense after Steven Threet was forced to retire due to recurrent concussions. Threet is serving as a student assistant this spring.

"I'd love to have Steven, but without having him, I think it kind of identified who our leader is," coach Dennis Erickson said.

Some notes:

Who's out: Arizona Republic writer Doug Haller was at the first practice Tuesday and provided this list of players who were out or limited: "... defensive end Junior Onyeali, receiver Mike Willie, safety Keelan Johnson, safety Eddie Elder, cornerback Deveron Carr, receiver Aaron Pflugrad and running back Deantre Lewis. Linebacker Brandon Magee was with the baseball team and didn't practice."

Haller also provided a depth chart from the first day.

Osweiler then who? With Threet, Osweiler and Samson Szakacsy, the Sun Devils had three quarterbacks with starting experience. Without Threet and Szakacsy, who left the team to pursue other interests, the Sun Devils have a first-team quarterback with two career starts and no experience behind him. Redshirt freshman Taylor Kelly and big-armed true freshman Mike Bercovici are competing for the backup role, which is often a key spot seeing how often starters get hurt and miss action.

O-line competition: If you're looking for a major reason the Sun Devils have high hopes, look no further than the line, which welcomes back, well, just about everybody from the two-deep. This will be a veteran unit led by senior center Garth Gerhart, younger brother of Toby. More than five guys have starting experience, so there may be some mixing and matching and shuffling as players fight for first-unit spots.

DT is the question: Both starting defensive tackles, Lawrence Guy and Saia Falahola, are gone. The ideal rotation would be Corey Adams and Will Sutton starting, with Bo Moos and Toa Tuitea providing depth. But can Adams stay healthy? Sutton was academically ineligible last year, so he's high on talent and low on experience. Developing depth this spring will be critical. And might the Sun Devils use more three-man fronts? Said Erickson, "We're a 4-3 team," while still leaving the option open.

Can Burfict be perfect? Of course, no one can be perfect, but Burfict, a junior linebacker likely spending his final season in Tempe, will play himself into becoming a first-round NFL draft pick in 2012 if he saves all his nutty behavior for between the whistles, not after. He needs to lead in word and deed, which means growing up and acting and playing like a man. The way-early returns this offseason are positive. "I'm trying to get us to a national championship," Burfict told the Republic, "and to do that, I feel like I need to become more of a leader."

Just for kicks? The Sun Devils must replace kicker Thomas Weber and punter Trevor Hankins. Alex Garoutte and Parker Flynn are competing at kicker, with Garoutte the front-runner. JC transfer Josh Hubner is expected to win the punting job. Will the Sun Devils get quality or merely warm bodies here?

An interesting post here from the California Golden Blogs on a different way to calculate quarterback efficiency.

It's worth it to read the whole story because it breaks down every FBS conference and has a bunch of cool graphics, but I'm just going to steal borrow the part that focuses on the Pac-12.

The writer, Berkelium97 (is he a Klingon?), feeds numbers into Utah State sports economist David Berri's "more intuitive formula that addresses some of the common criticisms lobbed at the passer efficiency rating." Berri calls his formula the "QB Score" and it looks like this: QB Score = Total Yards - (3 x Plays) - (50 x Turnovers).

The difference in QB Score and college efficiency rating is this:

The traditional passer efficiency rating tends to take on a "more is better" approach: if players throw a bunch of TDs and hundreds of yards, they can get away with a fairly high turnover rate. Berri's measure has a different philosophy: if you generate yards and avoid turnovers, you will be rewarded.

So here's the list of Pac-12 quarterbacks, ranked by their "QB score," which you can compare to their efficiency rating.


You can see one reason folks at Arizona State believed that Osweiler would have beaten Threet out this spring, even before Threet opted to retire due to recurrent concussions.

No surprises with Mansion and Prince ranking toward the bottom -- they also did for efficiency rating. No surprise at the very top either, with Luck and Thomas. And the Locker critics probably will enjoy his mediocre tally.

It's surprising that Scott is ahead of Foles and that Cain is ahead of Wynn, though both the Arizona and Utah backups put their numbers up with a far smaller sample size. Further, guess here is that Colorado fans probably didn't expect Hawkins to rate so highly -- ahead of Locker and Barkley!

Barkley's number is surprising, particularly considering he ranked third in the conference in passing efficiency and threw 26 TD passes, but the Golden Blogs' analysis says this: "he finished in the bottom half because he does not generate that much yardage and he throws a fair number of interceptions. He's much improved over last year, but he still has work to do."

Arizona State quarterback Steven Threet still hasn't been cleared to participate in spring practices, which start March 22.

Threet, a senior who started 11 games last year, suffered three concussions this past season, coach Dennis Erickson said.

"I don't know if he'll play spring football," Erickson said.

Threet briefly spoke to the Arizona Republic about his status at the end of January.

While Erickson described his quarterback competition as "wide open," it would appear that junior Brock Osweiler now owns the inside track to the starting job in 2011.

Osweiler replaced Threet early in the UCLA game -- and threw for 380 yards and four touchdowns in a 55-34 win -- and then led the Sun Devils to a victory over rival Arizona.

Threet completed 62 percent of his passes for 2,534 yards with 18 touchdowns and 16 interceptions in 2010. Osweiler completed 57 percent for 797 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. While their efficiency ratings were nearly identical, Threet's tendency to throw interceptions and Osweiler's ability to avoid doing so was a chief reason many saw Osweiler as the favorite to win the job, no matter Threet's health.

Erickson also said four other players will be out or significantly limited this spring due to shoulder injuries: defensive end Junior Onyeali, safety Eddie Elder, safety Keelan Johnson and receiver Mike Willie.

What tops the to-do list in the newly formed Pac-12 this offseason? Read on.

Hey, why are there 12 teams here? Hey, it's because the Pac-10, the conference we've known since 1978, is now the Pac-12, with two new teams -- Utah and Colorado -- and North and South divisions and a conference championship game. It will take some getting used to. For one, goodbye nine-game, round-robin schedule; hello conference misses. And hello this debate: "The North rules!" "No way, man, the South is where it's at!" In any event, the dynamic will be different, and you can count on coaches thinking about how it will be -- in recruiting and on the field -- over the coming months.

Solving the QB intrigue: Arizona, Oregon, Oregon State, USC, Utah and Washington State are set at quarterback. Oh, and Stanford, too. But five schools have varying degrees of intrigue (and even Arizona needs to figure out what to do with capable backup Matt Scott). Arizona State needs to establish a pecking order between Brock Osweiler and Steven Threet. At Colorado, Tyler Hansen returns from an injury and will try to fight off a challenge from junior college transfer Brent Burnette this spring. California has a wide-open competition with a bunch of names and no clear favorite (transfer Zach Maynard?). Is true freshman Brett Hundley ready to take over at UCLA, or are Kevin Prince or Richard Brehaut going to prevail? (And will Prince be ready to compete this spring after knee surgery?). And Washington is a battle between Keith Price and Nick Montana.

Tending to the hot seats: No Pac-10 coach was fired this year, though newcomer Colorado dispatched Dan Hawkins. But that might not be the case after the 2011 season, seeing that a couple of seats range from steamy to warm. Topping the hot-seat list are UCLA's Rick Neuheisel and Washington State's Paul Wulff. Both need to win this season to survive. Neuheisel, coming off his second 4-8 season in three years, probably needs seven or eight wins. Wulff probably needs to get his team to a bowl game. Arizona State is expected to be a top-25 team. If it's not, Dennis Erickson could be in trouble. Arizona coach Mike Stoops and California coach Jeff Tedford might not be on hot seats, per se, but their seats aren't as comfortably chilled as they once were.

Hello, my name is Coach New Guy: Two Pac-12 teams welcome new coaches: Jon Embree at Colorado and David Shaw at Stanford. Shaw will need no introduction to his players; he was the Cardinal's offensive coordinator under Jim Harbaugh, who bolted to the San Francisco 49ers. (I'm concerned I will suffer some sort of Harbaugh withdrawal this spring.) But he's rebuilding an outstanding coaching staff that suffered a major brain drain on both sides of the ball, including Greg Roman (offense) and Vic Fangio (defense). Embree has stocked his staff with plenty of familiar names and faces and lots of impressive NFL pedigree, which will appeal to recruits. Still, both are first-time head coaches so it will be interesting to see how they adjust to their big corner offices.

Where's the beef? Most Pac-12 teams take significant hits on their offensive or defensive lines -- or both, in the case of Arizona, Oregon and Stanford. Colorado loses just one lineman, but that's left tackle Nate Solder, a likely first-round NFL draft pick. Arizona, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA and USC must replace at least three offensive line starters. Arizona, Arizona State, California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, Utah and Washington State need to replace at least two on the D-line. If you watched the conference's two BCS bowls -- Stanford in the Discover Orange and Oregon in the Tostitos BCS National Championship Game -- you saw what happened when you win the battle in the trenches.

You can't ever take the PAT for granted. If you don't believe that, check in with an Arizona fan.

Kicker Alex Zendejas' extra-point attempt, which would have given the Wildcats the lead with 30 seconds left in the Territorial Cup against Arizona State, was blocked. Then another PAT was blocked that would have tied the game in the second overtime.

The end result is Arizona State upset No. 23 Arizona 30-29 in a thriller on Thursday.

It appeared James Brooks blocked both kicks, which were low.

The entire game took place after halftime. In the first half, both offenses were completely ineffective, and the Sun Devils led 6-0 at the break. But from then on, things went back and forth, with big plays and big mistakes changing momentum multiple times.

The statistics were almost identical: Both teams had 19 first downs. Arizona had 391 total yards; Arizona State had 389.

But the kickers were a mismatch. Sun Devils kicker Thomas Weber, a former Lou Groza Award winner who has struggled this year, was 5-for-5 on field goals with a long of 52 yards and made his one extra point. Zendejas made a 19-yard field goal and missed the aforementioned PATs.

Both quarterbacks turned in strong performances -- at least after bad first halves. Wildcats QB Nick Foles completed 22-of-36 for 262 yards with three TDs and no interceptions. It appeared he had led his third game-winning drive of the season before the missed PAT late in the fourth quarter.

Arizona State's Brock Osweiler, who got the start because of a concussion suffered by starter Steven Threet against UCLA last weekend, began just 3-for-15, but he settled down and ended up completing 22-of-49 for 267 yards with a TD. He also rushed for 56 yards and frequently eluded tough pressure from the Wildcats.

It is worth noting that, particularly early in the game, the Wildcats dropped at least three fairly easy interceptions, which probably allowed Osweiler to get his feet under him in his first start this season.

What does the result mean?

It means that Arizona (7-5) will ride a four-game losing streak into the postseason. That likely will cost them a berth in the Valero Alamo Bowl if Washington beats Washington State on Saturday, which means they figure to make a return trip to the Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl.

Arizona State improves to 6-6. It has applied to the NCAA for a bowl waiver, despite needing seven wins, per NCAA rules, because it played two FCS teams. The reasoning is the Sun Devils only played a second FCS team because San Jose State dropped out of a scheduled game late in the offseason, leaving the Sun Devils stranded and without options.

A further justification: The Sun Devils are probably the best 6-6 team in the nation.

With just two senior starters, you will hear from them in 2011.

Issues to consider heading into the 14th -- and final -- week of regular-season games.

Brock Osweiler vs. the Zona Zoo: Arizona State backup QB Brock Osweiler was fantastic last week coming off the bench for an injured Steven Threet, throwing for 380 yards and four touchdowns and running for another score in the Sun Devils' win over UCLA. But starting is a whole different thing. For one, you have to think about starting all week, so there's a different sort of pressure. Then there's starting on the road; it's much more difficult for an offense when it can't communicate. Finally, there's starting on the road in a rivalry game. It's loud and the whole state is watching. Osweiler's only previous start was in 2009 -- he was a true freshman -- at Oregon. He completed just 5 of 10 passes for 14 yards with an interception before being knocked out of the game. Osweiler looks like a different quarterback today. How different might determine if the Sun Devils get the upset.

Beavers must win third down: Oregon coach Chip Kelly often says he doesn't care about time of possession. That's true. But he cares about possession. If Oregon State is going to record the upset, it needs to win possession, which means converting on third down when it has the ball and stopping the Ducks on third down. And fourth down; the Ducks have gone for it 28 times this year. The problem for the Beavers is they have been bad on third down this year, particularly on defense, where they rate last in the Pac-10. And the Ducks are good on third down on both sides of the ball. The Beavers need to figure out ways to limit the Ducks' possessions. That means playing keep-away on offense and stepping up on conversion plays. What might that mean on defense? It means being fairly conservative on first and second down -- don't give up the big play, the Ducks' staple -- and then attacking on third (and fourth) down.

Can the Cougars stop Chris Polk? Washington RB Chris Polk needs 46 yards rushing in the Apple Cup to reach the 1,000-yard benchmark for the season. He figures to get that and more against a Washington State run defense that surrenders 211 yards on the ground per game, which ranks 115th in the nation. But the question is how much more? The Cougars held Oregon State to just 97 yards rushing in their only Pac-10 victory. Of course, ganging up on the run doesn't always yield positive results. The Cougars held Arizona State to 118 yards on the ground, but 375 yards passing helped the Sun Devils coast to a 42-0 win. But at least slowing down Polk would force Jake Locker and his broken rib to throw the ball on what figures to be a cold and perhaps snowy day in Pullman.

Brehaut through the air: Just who is UCLA QB Richard Brehaut? Is he a guy who can throw for 321 yards, as he did in the Bruins' loss last week at Arizona State? Or is he the guy who seemed unable to establish a consistent rhythm in the passing game, as he did in most of his other starts since taking over for Kevin Prince? We don't yet know. What we do know is USC has surrendered a lot of passing yards this year -- the most in the Pac-10, in fact. And the Trojans rank eighth in the conference in pass efficiency defense. While many of the questions heading into the USC-UCLA game are about the health of Trojans QB Matt Barkley (ankle), the bigger question in the game is whether the Bruins will be able to muster offensive balance and challenge a suspect pass defense.

Going bowling? Will the Pac-10 add a bowl team over the weekend? If Washington beats Washington State, the conference gets a fourth bowl-eligible team. If Oregon State upsets No. 2 Oregon, it could get another. And Arizona State continues to hope that if it upsets Arizona, it will get a waiver for the NCAA that allows it to play in a bowl game at 6-6, despite two of the wins coming against FCS teams. We shall see.

On page 13 of Arizona State's weekly release you find the team's depth chart. You don't need to review it now. We'll come back to that in a bit. The immediate business at hand for the Sun Devils is their game Thursday with rival Arizona.

The matchup is meaningful, and not just because it's a rivalry game that divides the state. It's also meaningful because the Sun Devils are still angling for a bowl berth.

While there are already 70 bowl-eligible teams, and Arizona State can't win seven games, the amount required by NCAA rules on bowl eligibility when you play two FCS teams, as the Sun Devils have, they nonetheless have submitted a waiver to the NCAA Legislative Relief Committee for review, and the Pac-10 office is backing that appeal with "emails and phone calls," according to a conference spokesman, Dave Hirsch.

"It is our hope that the waiver receives full consideration," Hirsch wrote in an e-mail. This was first reported by the Arizona Republic.

So the Territorial Cup may or may not serve as a launching point for the Sun Devils in 2011. For one, they could lose; they are the underdogs in Tucson, where the 'Zona Zoo can be a bit of a problem. And, if they win, it might not be their last game, with the Holiday, Sun or Las Vegas bowls being potential options if the NCAA grants the waiver.

But now let's return to that depth chart. Just two likely starting position players against the Wildcats are seniors: receiver Kerry Taylor and defensive tackle Saia Falahola, who is listed as a co-starter with Bo Moos. In fact, the Sun Devils only have 13 total seniors. The only area in which graduations hits hard is with the specialists: both kicker Thomas Weber and punter Trevor Hankins are seniors.

That youth, coupled with a 5-6 record that includes four defeats by four or fewer points, suggests the Sun Devils could be pretty salty in 2011. As in: Top-25, top-third of the Pac-12 salty.

But, alas, coach Dennis Erickson wouldn't play along with this line of thinking -- Thursday as a potential launching point for promising 2011 campaign -- which is probably wise. He does have a game to get ready for, you know.

"I don't know if you can look at it as that. You've got to look at it as what it is," he said. "We're worried about what is going to happen Thursday, not next year. But when they're young like that, with some of the guys we've got coming back, you look forward to the next year -- when this year is over with."

As for the Wildcats, the present situation is they are headed to a good bowl game, but they'd like to show up at that game without a sign saying "Four-game losing streak!" blinking over their collective heads. A win, and they likely head to the Alamo Bowl. A loss, and they might end up the Holiday Bowl if Washington beats Washington State.

Coach Mike Stoops doesn't beat around the bush when assessing why his team's fortunes have been sagging of late after they played into the nation's top-10 earlier in the season.

"We've played better teams down the stretch, teams that emphasize running the football," he said. "Our inability to stop the run consistently has led a little bit to our demise."

The last three foes -- Stanford, USC and Oregon -- each rushed for more than 200 yards in wins over the Wildcats, including 389 yards on the ground from the Ducks. But the Sun Devils, not unlike the Wildcats, are a passing team. Arizona ranks No. 1 (314 yards passing per game) and the Sun Devils second (288.2 yards per game) in the Pac-10 in passing.

Speaking of passing, both teams have interesting quarterback situations, which will be interesting heading into the offseason and spring practices as well.

When Sun Devils starter Steven Threet suffered a concussion early against UCLA, Brock Osweiler came off the bench and was brilliant, passing for 380 yards and four touchdowns. He'll start Thursday, and if he plays well, expect there to be another tight QB competition in Tempe before the 2011 season.

As for the Wildcats, Nick Foles is one of the best quarterbacks in the country and likely will get preseason All-American attention in 2011. He threw for a career-high 448 yards at Oregon last week. Still, backup Matt Scott did enough in two starts while Foles was hurt to make a big impression on Stoops.

"It will be a conversation for another day how we move forward with both of these players moving into their senior year next year," Stoops said.

In other words, he wants Scott to anticipate playing a role next fall as more than a pure backup.

Last year's game between these two was a defensive-minded thriller, a 20-17 Arizona victory that was heartbreaking for the Sun Devils. ASU receiver Kyle Williams made a spectacular catch in the end zone to tie the game at 17, but just moments later he muffed a punt that set up the Wildcats' game-winning field goal. Afterwards, their was a brief fight at midfield as tempers flared.

Expect another tight one in this underrated rivalry.

"They are much improved football team than they were a year ago," Stoops said. "They are way better offensively. They have an identity."

If Stoops' team prevails, it figures to return to the national rankings -- it's already No. 23 in the BCS standings -- and then play in a quality bowl game against a nationally ranked Big 12 team.

It's not yet certain what a win would mean for the Sun Devils in terms of the postseason. But an upset victory might be viewed this way in the big picture: As a launching point for justifiable optimism heading into 2011.

A look back on the week that was.

Team of the week: Washington looked dead in the drizzle after it dropped three in a row by an average of 36 points, but the Huskies got off the canvas and now have won consecutive games for the first time all season, including a 16-13 win at California over the weekend. If they win at Washington State on Saturday in the annual Apple Cup, the Huskies will go to a bowl game for the first time since 2002.

Best game: It doesn't get much more thrilling than recording a game-winning touchdown run on a fourth down from the 1-yard line on the final play of a game, as the Huskies did in Berkeley. Coach Steve Sarkisian could have kicked a field goal for the tie, but he boldly went for the win and was rewarded.

Biggest play: Top-ranked Oregon trailed Arizona 19-14 early in the third quarter when freshman receiver Josh Huff took a pitch 85 yards for a touchdown, giving the Ducks their first lead of the game. Thereafter, the Wildcats had no chance, as Oregon ended up winning 48-29.

Offensive standout: Arizona State quarterback Brock Osweiler came off the bench for injured starter Steven Threet and completed 27 of 36 passes for 380 yards with four touchdowns in the Sun Devils' 55-34 win over UCLA. Osweiler also ran six times for 35 yards and a score. He will start Thursday at Arizona.

Defensive standout: Stanford linebacker Chase Thomas had nine tackles and 2.5 sacks in the Cardinal's 38-0 win over Oregon State.

Special teams standout: Just after UCLA scored a touchdown to narrow Arizona State's lead to 31-27, the Sun Devils Jamal Miles returned the ensuing kickoff 99-yards for a touchdown. The Bruins never threatened again.

Smiley face: Letdown shockers late in the season that cost teams BCS bowl berths are an annual occurrence in college football. So Oregon and Stanford impressively taking care of business at home against credible foes deserves a tip of the cap.

Frowny face: We don't even know you any more, Oregon State. Lose to UCLA and Washington State? Beat USC? Then get stomped 38-0 at Stanford? Make up your mind. Please. Might be a good idea to bring the team that beat USC to Reser Stadium on Saturday or the Civil War could get uncivil.

Thought of the week: When Stanford reached No. 4 in the BCS standings, which guarantees the Cardinal a berth in a BCS bowl game, athletic directors across the Pac-10 -- even at California -- jumped into the air and clicked their heels together. Why? They know they will get a check for at least $450,000 this winter, which is the conference's per team distribution of the bonus payout for getting a second BCS bowl team. There are plenty of cash-strapped departments than can use the extra money.

Questions for the week: Will the Apple Cup be Washington State coach Paul Wulff's final game? He appears to be the only coach in the Pac-10 whose fate for 2011 is still a question. While the Cougars are much improved, and they broke through with a win over Oregon State, athletic director Bill Moos' silence on Wulff's status suggests there are some behind-the-scenes machinations going on. It's hard to believe the decision could come down to one game, but beating the Huskies and ending their bowl hopes would certainly make Coug fans happier heading into the offseason.