College Football Nation: TCU

My colleague, Joe Schad, is reporting that the Big 12 has told West Virginia it will be accepted into the conference pending formal approval, which could happen very soon.

While Texas A&M and TCU, which recently announced conference moves, will join their new conferences for the 2012 season, Schad notes the Big East could try to keep WVU, along with Pitt and Syracuse, in the conference for up to 27 months, per conference guidelines.

Why would the Big East play hardball with its defectors? Because more than $20 million per year is at stake given the Big East's automatic-BCS-qualifying status.

For the 2011-12 school year, BCS conferences will receive $22.3 million for their qualifying team and can earn another $6.1 million if another member receives an at-large berth. A non-automatic-qualifying conference team selected for a BCS game receives $26.4 million but must divide that revenue with the other four non-automatic-qualifying conferences.

If the Big East were to lose Pitt, Syracuse and West Virginia at the end of this school year, it could jeopardize the Big East’s BCS status. Here’s how it works:

Current BCS conferences were determined based on data from the 2004-07 football seasons. Data from the 2008-11 seasons will be reviewed following this season to determine if a seventh conference makes the cut to be an automatic-qualifier for the 2012 and 2013 BCS bowl seasons. In addition to that review, each current BCS conference is reviewed for annual qualification.

This is where it gets dicey for conferences losing teams.

Three sets of data are considered in the annual review: First, the average ranking of the highest-ranked team in the BCS standings over the four-year period; second, the average rank of all the conference’s teams based on rankings from each of the six BCS computers over the four-year period; and third, something called a conference’s Adjusted Top 25 Performance -- a calculation based on a conference’s number of teams in the Top 25 of BCS standings over the four-year period as a percentage of the top conference in this calculation, which would have been rated 100 percent.

The threshold for annual qualification requires each conference to be in the top six in the first two sets of data and in the top 50 percent in the third set of data. However, a waiver can be obtained from the BCS’ Presidential Oversight Committee if a conference is in the top six of the first two sets of data and top 33 percent of the third set, or top five of one of the first two sets and top seven in the other, along with top 33 percent of the third set.

When asked how conference realignment might affect these reviews, Maxey Parrish of the BCS said: “Since it's impossible to determine how a team would have played had they been a member of another conference, the rankings count for the conference schools [which] were members of [the conference] at that time. For example, TCU is not factored into the Big 12's status as an AQ until the 2012 season.”

What happens if a conference doesn’t meet the annual threshold? “Then there is the potential for them to be taken off the list of AQ conferences,” Parrish said. However, Big East Associate Commissioner John Paquette said the conference's BCS status is guaranteed through the 2013 season.

The Big East's 27-month waiting period for members exiting ensures the conference will have suitable time to find a replacement and that current members will be included in automatic-qualifying calculations following the 2013 season, which is when new BCS agreements would have to be put into place following the expiration of current ones.

Lunchtime Links

November, 11, 2010
11/11/10
12:00
PM ET
Almost nailed the Miami (Ohio)-Bowling Green score right yesterday. More mid-week non-AQ football coming up tonight: East Carolina at UAB. My pick: East Carolina 41, UAB 35.

Now on to some links:

Rose Bowl officials have discussed the possibility of choosing between Boise State and Stanford as an at-large selection.

The Alford brothers will be on opposite sidelines once again Saturday when Utah plays Notre Dame.

How does anyone know who the best team in the country is on eyeballs alone, asks Jennifer Floyd Engel of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.

Nevada offensive lineman John Bender plays on the edge.

San Diego State coach Brady Hoke says he's not looking to bail out after two years with the Aztecs. His name has surfaced on the Minnesota wish list.

Rice athletic director Rick Greenspan has given coach Dave Bailiff a vote of confidence.

Marshall's Donald Brown won't live down "The Slide."

Arkansas State is ready for Western Kentucky running back Bobby Rainey.

Louisiana Tech's Phillip Livas is back to making big plays.

Northern Illinois stays grounded after its win against Toledo.

Non-AQ What to Watch, Week 11

November, 11, 2010
11/11/10
10:15
AM ET
Come one, come all for your top 10 non-AQ storylines for Week 10:

1. Let the jockeying continue. Now that TCU has passed Boise State in the human polls, the race is on to see whether the Horned Frogs can stay there -- and grow their lead. Both need to happen for TCU to solidify its spot ahead of the Broncos in the BCS standings. TCU plays San Diego State (7-2) while Boise State plays Idaho (4-5) so it is unlikely Boise State will move ahead after this week. But looking ahead, TCU has one game left against New Mexico (1-8), while Boise State has games remaining against Fresno State (6-2), Nevada (8-1) and Utah State (3-6).

2. Is a letdown in store for TCU? The Horned Frogs are coming off an emotional 47-7 win over Utah, but this is not a team that loses focus easily. They have given up a total of 23 points in six league games, and have given up one touchdown at home in three league games. This is Senior Day, where TCU will say goodbye to a group of players who have not lost in the regular season since 2008. San Diego State is much improved, so we will see how the Horned Frogs handle their emotions.

3. How does the Boise State-Idaho rivalry end? Boise State and Idaho have no future games set as the Broncos depart the WAC for the Mountain West. But this game has not proved to be much of a rivalry over the last several years. The Broncos have won 11 straight over the Vandals, and have won those game by an average score of 51-18.

[+] Enlarge
Utah
Andrew Weber/US PresswireComing off a disappointing loss to TCU, the Utes have to go on the road to face Notre Dame.
4. Can Utah bounce back? The Utes are coming off an embarrassing loss at home to TCU and travel to play a beaten down Notre Dame team. As badly as the Irish need to win, so does Utah, which wants to avoid having its season go down the drain due to one loss. After losing 55-28 to TCU last year, Utah rebounded with a 38-7 win over San Diego State. But that one was at home. This is going to be a tough challenge.

5. Will we get clarity in Conference USA? There are several big games for the league this weekend as UCF hosts Southern Miss, and Tulsa travels to Houston. UCF is the lone team that is undefeated in league play in Conference USA and can clinch the East Division with a win over Southern Miss and an East Carolina loss to UAB tonight. Meanwhile, Tulsa, Houston and SMU each have two losses in the West. Whoever wins would remain in the hunt.

6. Will we get clarity in the Sun Belt? Who would have thought when the season started we would be saying Troy and FIU would be meeting with Sun Belt title chances on the line? Both teams have one loss in conference play and the winner here would be in the driver’s seat. Whoever wins out, wins the league. It’s as simple as that.

7. Bowl eligibility time. Here are your teams that have a shot to become bowl eligible this week: Army, East Carolina, Houston and Troy. Army plays at Kent State, while East Carolina is at UAB, Houston hosts Tulsa and Troy hosts FIU. SMU (5-5) is off.

8. What does Navy do for an encore? The Midshipmen racked up 76 points and 521 yards on the ground against East Carolina last week. So what happens against Central Michigan (3-7)? Quarterback Ricky Dobbs reportedly missed a few days of practice with a slight concussion. If he cannot go, Kriss Proctor would get the start. But even without Dobbs, Alexander Teich has played well since replacing Vince Murray in the starting lineup. He averaged 11.2 yards a carry last week against the Pirates, and had a 200-yard game against Notre Dame.

9. What does Nevada do for an encore? The Wolf Pack may not have scored as many points as Navy, but they had more yards -- 844 in a 63-17 win over Idaho. Nevada sits at No. 21, behind several two-loss teams from power conferences. The question is whether voters see Nevada as a great team or merely a good team from a bad conference. How it does against a good Fresno State team on Saturday is important for perception.

10. The future is now. True freshman quarterbacks Pete Thomas and Jake Heaps face each other when BYU travels to Colorado State. Thomas has thrown for 2,273 yards for the Rams and is second in the league in passing, mostly because he has been put in situations where his team has fallen behind. But still, he is progressing well and coach Steve Fairchild believes Thomas' future is bright. Heaps has not been as successful, struggling as much as the rest of the BYU offense. He had his first good game against UNLV last week, throwing for 294 yards and a touchdown. The play of the quarterbacks is the key to the game.

Non-AQ predictions: Week 11

November, 11, 2010
11/11/10
9:00
AM ET
» Predictions: ACC | Big 12 | Big East | Big Ten | Pac-10 | SEC | Non-AQ

Three straight weeks of going 7-3 is not that bad considering the alternative. I did get one of my upset specials right, though I didn’t expect Navy to hang 76 on East Carolina. Props to New Mexico. Does it count that I said there was a “slim chance” of an upset? Hey at least I said there was a chance!

With a 64-40 overall record, bring on Week 11.

East Carolina 41, UAB 35. (Tonight) The Pirates have to get past the 76 points they allowed to Navy last week. UAB is going to have to get running back Pat Shed going, because Dominique Davis will be able to pass for the Pirates. The East Carolina defense has been bad, but somehow the Pirates will find a way to bounce back with bowl eligibility on the line. They have got to hold on to the football, though. Four turnovers on five possessions in the third quarter against Navy let the game get out of hand.

No. 4 Boise State 45, Idaho 13. (Friday). You know the atmosphere is going to be rowdy, what with offseason comments from Boise State president Bob Kustra stirring the pot. This is the final scheduled game in the rivalry now that the Broncos are leaving for the Mountain West. The Vandals would love nothing more than to end their undefeated season, but they are one of the most penalized teams in the country. Idaho hasn’t beaten Boise State since 1998. The Vandals’ last win at home over the Broncos? 1995.

No. 3 TCU 38, San Diego State 10. Sure this is the classic “trap” game for the Horned Frogs, who will be coming down off an emotional 47-7 win at Utah. San Diego State is much improved this season, and bowl eligible for the first time since 1998. Ronnie Hillman already has 1,000 yards rushing and will be the No. 1 target to stop. The Aztecs have won four straight but haven’t looked good doing it. They have won their past three games by an average of eight points. Their opponents in those three games have a combined six wins.

No. 14 Utah 35, at Notre Dame 20. The Utes have to bounce back and fast to put the embarrassment of last weekend behind them. This certainly will be a big test for coach Kyle Whittingham to get his team to stay focused for the remainder of the season. The Irish have a handful of starters out because of injuries. Bank on Jordan Wynn putting the mistakes of last week behind him to have a big game.

No. 21 Nevada 45, Fresno State 40. This one is not going to be easy for the Wolf Pack, but they come into the game riding a major 844-yard output on offense, with three 100-yard runners and a 300-yard passer in a win over Idaho. Chris Carter and Logan Harrell each have nine sacks for Fresno State, but the first key is to stop the run. The same can be said for Nevada -- Fresno State has gotten good production from Robbie Rouse in the last three games. He is coming off a 286-yard day against Louisiana Tech.

UCF 35, Southern Miss 21. The Knights are the only undefeated team left in Conference USA and are the favorites to win the entire conference. They survived a scare on the road against Houston last week and now face an East Division rival that has been inconsistent. But the Golden Eagles have lost their two league games by a combined two points. Still, their defense has been somewhat disappointing and is going to have a hard time slowing down Jeff Godfrey.

BYU 30, Colorado State 27. I am trying not to read too much into the Cougars’ offensive explosion last week because it came against UNLV. But still, it has to be encouraging to see Jake Heaps throw for more than 100 yards in a game. This one features the two top freshman quarterbacks in the league, and the Rams are much improved with Pete Thomas leading the way. But BYU has an improving defense -- and has to win to keep bowl hopes alive.

Army 30, Kent State 27. The Black Knights have to win either against Kent State or next week against Notre Dame to become bowl eligible for the first time since 1996. This one is an intriguing matchup -- Army has the No. 8 rushing attack in the country, averaging 277 yards a game. Kent State has the best run defense, giving up just 69 yards a game. But the Golden Flashes have to major injuries on defense: linebacker Cobrani Mixon and safety Brian Lainhart. Mixon is second on the team in tackles, while Lainhart is third. Quarterback Spencer Keith also has a sprained thumb and is listed as day-to-day.

Troy 28, FIU 17. Though FIU is 3-5, the Panthers are 3-1 in conference play, half a game behind Troy (4-1). So essentially the Sun Belt title is on the line. Troy has never lost to FIU, so bank on the Trojans to win this one and eventually win their fifth straight league title. Great special-teams matchup to watch between T.Y. Hilton of FIU and Jerrel Jernigan of Troy.

UPSET SPECIAL: Tulsa 45, Houston 44. The top two scoring offenses in Conference USA battle it out with the West division title at stake. The Golden Hurricane have loads of confidence after winning three straight, and plenty of weapons for Houston to try and handle. Tulsa has a more high-powered attack than UCF, which scored 40 in a win last week, so the Golden Hurricane get the edge.

More TCU, Boise State talk in mailbag

November, 10, 2010
11/10/10
5:00
PM ET
Time to dip our toes into a midweek mailbag. Would it surprise you that it jammed up with one overriding question:

Why is TCU ranked higher than Boise State?

Lots of Broncos fans are angry about the human polls and BCS standings, which have TCU at No. 3 and Boise State at No. 4. Both teams won impressively last week, but TCU beat No. 5 Utah on the road. That is my way of explaining why TCU jumped ahead in the human polls. I know Boise State fans want an explanation based on stats or something else, but I can only give you my best guess. I still have Boise State ahead. I think both are so even right now that I have no reason to move TCU ahead at this point.

As for the computer rankings, each one takes into account a different formula. Only one, Colley Matrix, publishes its formula. Each one does account for strength of schedule. The Anderson & Hester ranking puts a heavy emphasis on strength of conference. But other than those nuggets, most of everything else about how the computer rankings are done are kept a secret for proprietary reasons.

A few more common questions: If Alabama and Oregon both lose, then yes -- Boise State and TCU would be the next likely candidates to meet in the BCS national title game should they win out.

Bowl projections: If a non-AQ team makes it into the BCS national title game against a Big Ten or Pac-10 team, then the Rose Bowl is NOT required to take an at-large non-AQ team. Also, teams are not slotted into their respective bowl games based on conference order of finish. Greg in Fort Worth asked about LSU. If both LSU and Alabama are available for the Capital One Bowl, then I am betting Orlando goes with the Tide even though they lost head to head. Why? LSU was here last year, and the Capital One Bowl would jump at the chance to have the defending national champions. Alabama has not played in the game since 1995.

Same for the Big Ten. If Ohio State and Iowa are both available, I am betting the Capital One Bowl goes with the Buckeyes even if they lose to the Hawkeyes. Ohio State has not been to the game since 1996.

Now on to some questions:

Pam in Meridian, Idaho, writes: Andrea, do you REALLY think that Utah was worthy of their No. 5 position when they played TCU? After all they only played a very mediocre Pitt early in the season. Isn't TCU given a little too much credit here for blowing out Utah?

Andrea Adelson writes: Where would you have liked an undefeated Utah team to be placed, at No. 15 based on its schedule? Utah was obviously not up to the challenge, and TCU deserves every ounce of credit it goes for going on the road to beat an undefeated team by 40 points.


Andy in Hattiesburg, Miss., writes: What are your opinions on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles this year? I mean, they are only a couple of points away from being 8-1.. Besides huge penalties an inconsistent play, what are the keys to finishing 3-0 against UCF, Houston, and Tulsa. Can it be done? If not, where do you see this team next year?

Adelson writes: Southern Miss is a confounding team to me. I thought the Golden Eagles would be a serious threat to UCF, but a few of their losses have me scratching my head. You cannot discount the penalties and inconsistent play, because those are usually the difference between really good and really bad teams. It obviously has hurt that DeAndre Brown has been out. Don't forget the offensive line is young. The defense has been a disappointment with nine starters returning -- they are giving up 26 points a game. Keys to win -- don't turn the ball over, and find a way to control the ball against UCF, Houston and Tulsa, three teams that have the ability to score in bunches. As for next year, let's see how this season finishes up.


Barry Nelson in Bastrop, Texas, writes: I as a viewer want to see TCU and Boise State matched up against top teams in the BCS. If Oregon and Auburn finish out undefeated, I would imagine that they will be in the National championship game. ... We need to push the entities that choose the bowls to match up both Boise and TCU with the No. 5 and 6 teams respectively. I will not watch a TCU and Boise State game. I would watch TCU play LSU or someone with one loss. And the same goes for Boise State. Allow these teams to prove themselves, and allow us as viewers to root for that underdog.

Adelson writes: Conference tie-ins preclude a No. 5 or No. 6 playing Boise State or TCU, but we get your drift. And wholeheartedly agree.


Sean Jeffries in McCall, Idaho, writes: Being a WSU Cougar, I know a lot about losing lately, but I see Boise State win every week and drop. Has there ever been a team rated No. 3 to start the year, win every game and most by over 30 and drop? What is this conspiracy against Boise State? They have the longest winning streak, they have a top rated defense and offense, they have possibly the best QB in the game.

Adelson writes: I don't think it's a conspiracy. Critics point to the strength of schedule, judge and laugh. It's as simple as that.


Sheri in Oregon writes: A few "old" commentators are stuck on the notion that the SEC is the only division that plays "real football." Why don't we let the SEC play by themselves and the rest of the country can also have a national championship game?

Adelson writes: I've often wondered the same thing.


Matt in Orlando writes: With UCF finally being ranked for the first time in the school's history, what do you think the programs outlook is like? The starting freshman, Jeffrey Godfrey, is a true freshman, but looking anything but one. Do you think he can lead UCF to become a TCU or Boise State? The program's gone through a lot of heartbreaks. Do you think everything is looking up now?

Adelson writes: I have always maintained that UCF should be the next Boise State or TCU given its location. You have a wealth of talent in your backyard, go out and get them and build up your program. This is obviously a breakthrough with the first national ranking in school history, but this program has taken steps before and then giant leaps backward. However, Godfrey is a special player and he could bring even more of those top recruits from Miami into Orlando. What will be interesting to see is whether the school gets an invite to the Big East.


Randall McKinney in Halls, Tenn., writes: When TCU, Boise State, or any other non-AQ beats a team that’s EVER WON A NATIONAL TITLE then you let me know. When they take an October trip to a stadium with 80,000 hostile fans to play a team with just a shred of tradition and a few NFL prospects you let me know. ... Yes Utah did beat Bama in Sugar Bowl. A Bama team that even then had the 2008 and SEC title game on their mind. All this TCU-Boise talk is a joke. Boise's season was over in September. That's saying enough right there. And finally, a few years ago the average SEC team played non-conference cream puffs and the national media was all over it. Now you guts praise teams who play nothing but cream puffs. Both TCU and Boise would have losing records in the SEC, Big 12, and Big Ten.

Adelson writes: I think you answered your own question at the top there, Randall. Oh, and TCU has beaten national champions Oklahoma, Clemson and BYU in the last five years. Boise State also beat Oklahoma. Oh, and Utah won at Michigan, too. Oh, and you might want to check your calendar. Utah is headed to Notre Dame on Saturday. I believe Notre Dame qualifies as a place with 1) hostile fans and 2) a shred of tradition.
The bitter sting of losing badly to TCU two years in a row has been replaced with a renewed focus to keep the season on track.

But so much was on the line last week for Utah: a Mountain West title, a potential berth in a BCS game. The Utes had plenty of prove not just to themselves, but to their skeptics, many of whom believed they were not that good.

After the 47-7 loss, Utah fell from No. 5 to No. 14 in the BCS rankings and those critics squawked about the overrated Utes, while the Horned Frogs proved once again there is a good deal of distance between themselves and the second-best team in the conference. In their last two games, TCU has outscored Utah 102-35. Utah moves on to the Pac-12 next season, so there will be no way to avenge the losses.

What was completely striking about the game was the way TCU dominated. With all the national attention and hype going into the game, many people expected … a game, not a drubbing. The 40-point loss was the fourth-largest home loss in school history. Utah, had won 21 straight at home coming into the game.

Utah coach Kyle Whittingham said in a phone interview this week there is nothing he would do differently against TCU.

“No, nothing,” Whittingham said. “They’re a great football team and it was a case where they were just the better team.”

The better team everywhere. Andy Dalton completely outplayed Jordan Wynn at quarterback. The TCU defense controlled the line of scrimmage and showed just why it is ranked No. 1 in the country. Utah had four turnovers, just 11 first downs, went 3-of-11 on third down and crossed the 50 for the first time early in the fourth quarter.

A rebuilt Utah defense that had garnered praise for its solid play gave up 558 yards of offense. The last time Utah gave up 500 yards to an opponent was to TCU last season.

“It was probably one of the worst losses I’ve ever had, and it changed a lot of how our season can be and the things we could have done,” left tackle John Cullen said. “But it’s one of those things. That’s football. You don’t get to be perfect every week. You have to perform.”

When asked to evaluate how Wynn did, Whittingham said, “About the same way every other quarterback has done against TCU this year.”

As for whether TCU deserves a spot in the championship game, Whittingham said, “They’re an exceptional team. They’re one of the top teams in the country, if not the top team. I hope they get treated fairly in the end when it’s all said and done.”

Whittingham said his team put the lost behind it Sunday. He has seen plenty of focus during practice this week as the team prepares to play at Notre Dame for the first time in school history.

“Nobody is hanging their head or feeling sorry for themselves,” Whittingham said. “The only remedy to what happened to us is to get back on the field and start working for the next opponent.”

That next opponent has fallen on much harder times than Utah. But even still, a season that had so much promise might feel like a disappointment because so much was lost in the loss.

Utah is most likely headed to the Las Vegas Bowl if it can win out. The last three games are no cakewalks, either. The Utes travel to much improved San Diego State next week, then close at home against rival BYU. The Cougars may be down this year, but you know what they say about rivalry games.

“We can’t dwell on what happened or what could have happened,” Cullen said. “It’s all about going up to South Bend and playing the Irish.”

Lunchtime Links

November, 10, 2010
11/10/10
12:30
PM ET
More midweek MAC football coming up. Tonight: Miami (Ohio) at Bowling Green. I will take Miami, 24-20.

Now on to some links:

Boise State's defensive line has been key this season.

Gary Patterson is in demand, and that's good for TCU.

Utah linebacker J.J. Williams finally makes his return from a lingering foot injury.

Nevada wide receiver Rishard Matthews is hitting his stride.

There is a chance Southern Miss wide receiver DeAndre Brown could play against UCF.

Is running the football the best option for UAB against East Carolina?

Houston linebacker Matt Nicholson suffered another knee injury, ending his season and career.

The WAC could add Texas-San Antonio, Texas State and Denver as early as today.

Air Force coach Troy Calhoun deflected talk about the Colorado opening.

FAU is not proud of its poor offensive production.

Injuries have hit Middle Tennessee -- both starting cornerbacks could be out Saturday.

Non-AQ bowl look

November, 9, 2010
11/09/10
5:03
PM ET
You saw my bowl projections from Sunday. Now here is a breakdown of the teams that have a shot at becoming bowl eligible this weekend.

Conference USA

Already eligible: UCF, Tulsa, Southern Miss, UTEP.

Vying for a spot: East Carolina, SMU and Houston each have five wins. The Pirates are hoping to bounce back after an embarrassing 76-45 loss to Navy at UAB. Houston hosts Tulsa in an important West division game, while SMU is off. SMU, Houston and Tulsa each have two league losses. SMU already beat Tulsa but lost to Houston. If there is a three-way tie atop the division when the season ends, the first tiebreaker is overall record to determine who plays in the Conference USA title game.

On the other end of the spectrum: Tulane (3-6), Marshall (3-6) and UAB (3-6) have to win out. Rice (2-7) and Memphis (1-8) have been eliminated.

Guaranteed bowl spots: Six.

MAC

Already eligible: Temple, Toledo, Ohio and Northern Illinois.

Vying for a spot: Miami (Ohio) is 5-4 and has a great shot at becoming bowl eligible in the next two weeks with games at Bowling Green (2-7) on Wednesday and at Akron (0-10) on Nov. 17. Kent State (4-5) needs to win two of its final three against Army (5-4), Western Michigan (3-6) and Ohio (7-3).

On the other end of the spectrum: Western Michigan has to win out. Buffalo, Central Michigan, Bowling Green, Akron, Eastern Michigan and Ball State are out.

Guaranteed bowl spots: Three.

Mountain West

Already eligible: TCU, San Diego State, Air Force, Utah.

Vying for a spot: BYU (4-5) plays at Colorado State in a critical must-win before closing against New Mexico and Utah.

On the other end of the spectrum: Colorado State, Wyoming, UNLV and New Mexico have been eliminated.

Guaranteed bowl spots: Five.

Sun Belt

Already eligible: No one.

Vying for a spot: Troy (5-3) is the only team with five wins. A home win against FIU on Saturday gets the Trojans bowl eligible. ULM (4-5) and Arkansas State (4-5) have to win two of three. The Warhawks have LSU, North Texas and Louisiana. Arkansas State has Western Kentucky, Navy and FIU.

On the other end of the spectrum: FIU, Middle Tennessee and FAU are each 3-5. The Blue Raiders may have the easiest road with games against North Texas, Western Kentucky, FAU and FIU remaining. FAU has Troy and Texas on its schedule. FIU also has tough games against Troy, Arkansas State and Middle Tennessee. North Texas, Louisiana and Western Kentucky have been eliminated.

Guaranteed bowl spots: Two.

WAC

Already eligible: Boise State, Hawaii, Nevada, Fresno State. Hawaii has accepted an invite to the Hawaii Bowl.

Vying for a spot: Idaho (4-5) has to win three of four against Boise State, Utah State, Fresno State and San Jose State. Since the Vandals have a 13-game schedule, they have to get to seven wins. Louisiana Tech and Utah State are both 3-6 and have to win out. The Bulldogs have New Mexico State, San Jose State and Nevada. Utah State has San Jose State, Idaho and Boise State.

On the other end of the spectrum: New Mexico State and San Jose State (1-8) have been eliminated.

Guaranteed bowl spots: Four.

Independents

Navy (6-3) became eligible for the Poinsettia Bowl. Army (5-4) needs one more win with games left against Kent State, Notre Dame and Navy. Army does not have an automatic bowl tie-in this year, but has backup agreements with the Armed Forces Bowl and Military Bowl. Notre Dame (4-5) needs two more wins with games remaining against Utah, Army and USC.

Lunchtime Links

November, 9, 2010
11/09/10
12:51
PM ET
Ready for some MAC football tonight? The MAC West is on the line when Toledo travels to Northern Illinois.

Now on to some links:

Boos show how the standards at Utah have been raised, writes Kurt Kragthorpe of the Salt Lake Tribune.

Idaho running back Deonte Jackson stirred the pot going into the Boise State game on Friday. When asked about comments Boise State president Bob Kustra made that were critical of Idaho fans, Jackson said, "I wouldn't expect anything different coming from the blue and orange snot."

TCU athletic director Chris Del Conte isn't interested in a football-only invite to the Big East.

Utah wants TCU to get a title shot.

Nevada quarterback Colin Kaepernick is all business as he returns close to home when the Wolf Pack play Fresno State.

Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo's son is a budding high school football player and has drawn some interest from college programs.

A lack of playmaking has continued to hurt SMU.

More details emerge from "Replaygate" involving San Diego State and BYU.

Is a change coming at quarterback for Rice?

ULM receiver Brent Leonard is second nationally in fourth-down conversion receptions.

The Colorado State-BYU series is ending.

TCU, Boise State and BCS standings

November, 9, 2010
11/09/10
11:30
AM ET
Several big questions loom in the final weeks of the season regarding TCU, Boise State and their quest to become the first non-AQ team to play for a BCS national championship.

Auburn and Oregon are in control of their own destiny. One or both have to lose for TCU or Boise State to sneak in. I asked ESPN BCS guru Brad Edwards two pressing questions on the topic, and here is what he had to say:

Q: If Oregon and Auburn lose, what are the chances TCU and Boise State play for the national title if both stay undefeated?

A: Right now, you'd have to say that's the most likely scenario. Even if voters decide to elevate a 1-loss conference champion to attempt to keep it from happening, they'd need to be on the same page in deciding which team to elevate, and their choice would need to be a team that was strong enough in the computers. It would take a bunch of voters with a common goal. The biggest threat to that matchup, in my opinion, would be Auburn if it lost at Alabama then won the SEC title.

Q: So in that scenario, can the Tigers creep ahead of TCU/Boise State into the national title game?

A: If Auburn loses to Alabama then wins the SEC, the Tigers will still be very strong in the computers. My guess, though, is if Oregon is still unbeaten, most voters are willing to give TCU (or Boise State) a chance rather than try to force a team with a late loss into that spot. Then again, it's a one-loss SEC champ, and that's a decision the voters would have to make.

Great debate: TCU vs. Boise State

November, 8, 2010
11/08/10
5:26
PM ET
It has come to this: non-AQ brother vs. non-AQ brother trying to tear the other down in an effort to be the first to make history and get into the BCS National Championship Game.

[+] Enlarge
Kellen Moore
AP Photo/Matt CilleyKellen Moore and Boise State dropped in the human polls after routing Hawaii, 42-7.
With TCU a solid No. 3 in the BCS standings this week, many Boise State fans have been left to scratch their heads. How is it that the Broncos beat a 7-2 Hawaii team 42-7, rack up a school-record 737 yards of offense, hold an opponent to 196 yards and drop in the human polls? That drop saw them fall further behind TCU in the BCS standings in their quest to get into the national championship game.

On the other side, TCU fans are saying darn right the Horned Frogs moved ahead. Their 47-7 victory against then-No. 5 Utah was more impressive, on the road, against a Top-5 team. The offense was prolific, the defense just as stingy.

So how to judge?

If you take a look at their strength of schedule, TCU has a computer average of 2 and Boise State has a 5. Boise State’s opponents have a .438 winning percentage. TCU’s have a .471 winning percentage. Both have beaten three teams with winning records.

They are both ranked in the Top 10 in scoring offense, scoring defense, total offense and total defense. It is actually TCU-Boise State 1-2 in total defense and scoring defense. Both have won impressively, both have veteran teams.

You can make the argument that Boise State is better. You can make the argument that TCU is better. If I was debating myself, here is how I would make those cases:

The case for Boise State: The Broncos have won 22 straight games, the longest winning streak in the country. I am not even going to go into the argument that Boise State beat TCU last season, because this is a new season and new teams. So based on the 2010 version, the Broncos are better on offense. Kellen Moore is a leader you want in the fourth quarter with time winding down. They also have better wide receivers in Austin Pettis and Titus Young. The defense is just as ferocious as the TCU unit. The Horned Frogs have 21 sacks in 10 games. Boise State has 31 sacks in eight games.

Boise State has allowed just 15 red-zone opportunities, and opponents have converted them into points eight times. The 53.3 percent conversion rate is the lowest in the nation. No other team in America gets punished the way the Broncos do. Who else handily wins games and drops in the polls? Boise State fell two spots in the AP poll to No. 4 after the Hawaii win, and one spot in the coaches’ and Harris polls to No. 3. That doesn’t happen to the teams from power conferences, no matter who they play.

The case for TCU: The Horned Frogs have the most impressive win of both schools, going on the road to embarrass Utah. Boise State hasn’t played anybody as highly ranked as Utah, and won’t play anybody as highly ranked as Utah the rest of the season. What, that win wasn’t impressive because the Utes weren’t that good? Well, Virginia Tech lost to James Madison. The TCU defense is better, holding opponents to 8.5 points a game. That is four better than Boise State. Utah didn’t even get past the 50 until the fourth quarter! TCU has allowed just three touchdowns over a 371:24 span, covering seven games and dating back to a Sept. 24 win at SMU.

[+] Enlarge
Andy Dalton
George Frey/Getty ImagesAndy Dalton and TCU are No. 3 in the BCS rankings after crushing unbeaten Utah on the road, 47-7.
The TCU offense is more balanced and versatile. Andy Dalton can run and throw. Ed Wesley and Matthew Tucker are a better duo at running back. And TCU has one of the best special teams players in the country in Jeremy Kerley. You want a lack of respect? TCU can play that card, too. The Horned Frogs returned 16 starters from a BCS team and started the season ranked behind Florida and Texas – teams missing their best players. Where are those two programs now? TCU kept winning big and kept getting passed in the human polls, too, until this week.

So you see, arguments can be made for both. Boise State finishes the season with four games against opponents that are a combined 21-14. TCU finishes with two opponents that are a combined 8-10.

Who deserves to go to the national championship game if there is an opening? Maybe both if Auburn and Oregon both lose. According to BCS guru Brad Edwards, that scenario is not out of the realm of possibility.

But if there is no opening, then Boise State and TCU will be exactly where they were for the second straight season: on the outside looking in, jockeying for the top BCS bid.

Non-AQ Players of the Week

November, 8, 2010
11/08/10
3:30
PM ET
Here are the non-AQ Players of the Week, as selected by each conference:

Conference USA

Offense: UCF quarterback Jeff Godfrey. Went 15-of-19 for 294 yards and a pair of touchdowns and rushed for 105 yards and a touchdown, giving him 399 yards of total offense in a 40-33 win against Houston. It was just the second 100-yard rushing game by a UCF quarterback in school history.

Defense: UCF linebacker Josh Linam. Had 17 tackles, 1.5 for a loss and a pass breakup against Houston. It more than doubled his previous career-high of seven.

Special Teams: Tulsa kick returner Damaris Johnson. Totaled 322 all-purpose yards and scored three touchdowns in a 57-27 victory against Rice. Johnson became the Conference USA record-holder for career kickoff return yards with 3,054 yards and needs only 64 yards to become the NCAA’s all-time kick-off return leader.

MAC

East Division

Offense: Temple quarterback Mike Gerardi. Threw for 368 yards and two touchdowns in a 28-10 win at Kent State. In four games, Gerardi has three starts and is 54-of-81 for 871 yards and eight touchdowns.

Defense: Ohio defensive lineman Stafford Gatling. Recorded six tackles, including 1.5 sacks and two tackles for loss with a forced fumble in a 34-17 win against Buffalo.

Special teams: Kent State punter Matt Rinehart. Averaged 48.4 yards on seven punts in a 28-10 loss to Temple. Rinehart had a pair of punts downed inside the 5-yard line as the Flashes averaged an impressive 48.1 net average.

West Division

Offense: Ball State receiver Jack Tomlinson. Had a career day with seven catches for 175 yards and three touchdowns in a 37-30 double overtime win against Akron.

Defense: Central Michigan linebacer Armond Staten. Recorded 11 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, one sack and three forced fumbles in a 26-22 win against Western Michigan.

Special teams: Ball State kicker Ian McGarvey. Made three field goals and four extra points against Akron.

Mountain West

Offense: TCU quarterback Andy Dalton. Went 21-of-26 for a career-high 355 yards and three touchdowns in a 47-7 win at No. 5 Utah. His 93-yard touchdown pass to Josh Boyce marked the second-longest play in MWC history.

Co-Defensive Players: TCU linebacker Tanner Brock and San Diego State linebacker Miles Burris. Brock had a career-high 12 tackles, an interception and a pass breakup in the win against Utah. Burris had a career-high 10 tackles, four tackles for loss, two sacks and two forced fumbles in a 24-19 victory against Colorado State.

Special teams: New Mexico kicker James Aho. Kicked a 38-yard field goal as time expired to help New Mexico stop a nine-game losing streak with a 34-31 win against Wyoming. He also made a career-best 51-yard attempt.

Sun Belt

Offense: FIU receiver T.Y. Hilton. Had 291 all-purpose yards, scoring four touchdowns in a 42-35 win in double overtime against ULM. He had two receiving touchdowns, one rushing touchdown and one kickoff return for a touchdown.

Defense: Arkansas State linebacker Demario Davis. Had seven tackles and a career-high two interceptions in a 51-24 victory against Middle Tennessee.

Special teams: Hilton. Had 168 kick return yards, including 95 on a touchdown return. The return was his fourth-career return for touchdown, tying him for first all-time at FIU.

WAC

Offense: Boise State quarterback Kellen Moore. Went 30-of-37 for a career-high 507 yards and three touchdowns in a 42-7 win against Hawaii. The 507 yards are the second most by any player in the nation this year.

Defense: Utah State linebacker Bobby Wagner. Tied a career-high with 17 tackles in a 27-22 win against New Mexico State.

Special teams: Louisiana Tech return specialist Phillip Livas. Returned seven kickoffs for 225 yards, including a 95-yarder for a touchdown, and a punt for another 29 yards in a loss to Fresno State.

Non-AQ Weekend Rewind

November, 8, 2010
11/08/10
2:00
PM ET
Let's take a look at the good and the bad for the non-AQs in Week 10.

The good: Boise State and TCU remained in the national title hunt with big wins this weekend. Though their offenses made headlines -- the Broncos racked up a school-record 737 yards and TCU had more than 500 yards -- both defenses played something fierce. They both held their opponents to fewer than 200 yards of total offense. Now they are the top two teams in the country in total defense and scoring defense. TCU is No. 1 in both categories. … Meanwhile, New Mexico won its first game of the season, 34-31 over Wyoming. Quarterback Stump Godfrey made his first career start as B.R. Holbrook sat out because of an injury and went 16-of-20 for 211 yards with two touchdowns. The Lobos, which had been giving the ball away as if it was a Christmas present, forced four turnovers. It was just the second time all season they won the turnover battle in a game. … How about Nevada racking up 844 yards of total offense? Not only did Colin Kaepernick have 300 yards passing, the Wolf Pack had three 100-yard rushers: Mark Lampford, Mike Ball and Vai Taua.

The bad: Western Michigan controlled its own bowl destiny heading into its game against Central Michigan. None of the four opponents left on its schedule had a winning record, so finishing up 7-5 or 6-6 seemed realistic. But the Broncos lost for the fifth straight time to their in-state rivals -- even though the Chippewas went into the game with just two wins. Backup RB Brian Fields fumbled 2 yards from the end zone with 1:37 remaining, the fourth lost fumble of the game for Western Michigan and the Chippewas held on 26-22.

The heartache: The Akron Zips are now the only winless team in the country, but missed out on a great opportunity in a 37-30 double-overtime loss to Ball State. After tying the score late to send the game into overtime, the Zips and Cardinals traded touchdowns in the first overtime. Ball State went ahead in overtime No. 2. But all hopes were lost for Akron when Patrick Nicely was intercepted on third down by Joshua Howard to end the game. Akron had more first downs and more rushing yards than Ball State and won the turnover battle as well. … Tulane had Southern Miss on the ropes heading into the fourth quarter. The two teams were tied at 30, but the Golden Eagles scored 16 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to win 46-30. Tulane (402) outgained Southern Miss (358) and had 11 more first downs.

[+] Enlarge
TCU defense
Douglas C. Pizac/US PresswireTCU shut down the high-powered Utah offense.
The off-balance: Utah and Hawaii went into their respective games as some of the highest-scoring teams in the country. But each were held to just a touchdown. Utah had been averaging 45.2 points a game, tied for No. 3 in the nation. Hawaii had been averaging 39. 2 points a game. … Meanwhile, BYU exploded offensively for the first time all season, posting more than 300 yards passing and 200 yards rushing and a season-high 55 points against UNLV. The Cougars are 39-0 since 1972 and 5-0 under current head coach Bronco Mendenhall when passing for 300 and running for 200.

A few more helmet stickers: FIU WR T.Y. Hilton had 291 all-purpose yards and four touchdowns in a 42-35 double-overtime win over ULM. He became the first Panther to score a touchdown three different ways in the same game, as he caught two touchdowns, ran for one and returned a kick for a score. … Central Michigan LB Armond Staten had 11 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, one sack and three forced fumbles in an upset win over Western Michigan. … San Diego State LB Miles Burris had a career-high 10 tackles, four tackles for loss (minus-39 yards), two sacks and two forced fumbles in a 24-19 victory over Colorado State.

A few injury items to note: Ohio quarterback Boo Jackson is questionable for the Nov. 16 game against Temple after reportedly getting into a fight outside a bar and sustaining serious injuries to his face. Coach Frank Solich would only say that Jackson is questionable for the game. Backup Phil Bates has been slowed by a shoulder injury, leaving the possibility that Ohio could burn the redshirt of true freshman Kyle Snyder. “We’re going to have to talk about it some more and look at it from different angles and make a decision about a player being brought out of redshirt if he needs to be,” Solich said. … Kent State star LB Cobrani Mixon is doubtful for Saturday’s game against Army with a shoulder injury, and starting quarterback Spencer Keith injured his thumb and is day-to-day. … BYU TE Marcus Mathews is out for the season with a lacerated spleen.

Week 11 look ahead: TCU plays San Diego State (7-2) in a classic letdown game. Will the Horned Frogs suffer an emotional low after an emotional high over Utah? Boise State has a big rivalry game against Idaho, perhaps made even bigger after comments during the offseason where school president Bob Kustra slammed Vandal culture as “nasty” and “inebriated.” Southern Miss travels to UCF in a big East Division game. The Knights, ranked for the first time in school history, control their destiny. We can’t forget about the big Tuesday night game between MAC West Division leaders Toledo and Northern Illinois.

Lunchtime Links

November, 8, 2010
11/08/10
12:30
PM ET
Time to really savor the games. The season is almost over! Then what?!

On to some links:

Utah attempts to pick up the pieces and move forward after a 47-7 loss to TCU.

TCU coach Gary Patterson reiterated that he didn't expect such a lopsided score.

Nevada's win against Idaho gives it a formula to potentially beat Boise State.

San Diego State is winning despite turning the ball over. The Aztecs have 11 turnovers during their four-game winning streak.

Spirits are high at UCF, where the Knights are ranked for the first time in school history.

Air Force has locked up the Commander-In-Chief Trophy, but the Falcons close with a bit of a letdown -- games against New Mexico and UNLV.

FIU coach Mario Cristobal was fired up after his team's double-overtime win against ULM.

Western Michigan lost to Central Michigan, calling fans to question coach Bill Cubit. But calls for him to be fired are irrational, writes Graham Couch.

Non-AQ Power Rankings: Week 11

November, 8, 2010
11/08/10
9:00
AM ET
» Power Rankings: ACC | Big 12 | Big East | Big Ten | Pac-10 | SEC | Non-AQ

Not much has changed in this week’s power rankings. Here they are for Week 11:

1. Boise State (8-0). The Broncos easily beat Hawaii 42-7 in a game I thought would be much closer. Forget about Kellen Moore throwing for over 500 yards for just a second. This defense played outstanding, racking up a season-high seven sacks and holding the high-powered Hawaii offense to 196 TOTAL yards. I just can’t drop them after such a big win. Plus, they have won 22 straight, the longest streak in the nation.

2. TCU (10-0). The Horned Frogs impressed with a big 47-7 win over Utah. They had another dominating performance, but the offense had a dominating day, too. Andy Dalton was on from the very start, and TCU had its way. Why are they still No. 2? Both defenses are outstanding, but Moore is more consistent than Dalton. I will say I think this TCU team is better than last season.

3. Utah (8-1). The Utes remain in the top 3 despite such an embarrassing loss at home. But they did lose to the No. 3 team in the country, and they are better than every other school on this list. Utah was totally outcoached and outplayed, but still has a chance to finish the season at 11-1.

4. Nevada (8-1). The Wolf Pack had a school-record 844 yards of offense in a 63-17 win over Idaho. Colin Kaepernick had 320 yards and five touchdowns, and now the Wolf Pack are up to No. 21 in the BCS standings.

5. UCF (7-2). The Knights are now ranked for the first time in school history, and have an opportunity to run the table and finish the season undefeated in league play. As it stands now they are the only unbeaten team in Conference USA play, and have a big East Division game against Southern Miss on Saturday.

6. Northern Illinois (7-2). The Huskies have won six straight, and face a big game against Toledo on Tuesday. Their only two losses this season are to Iowa State and Illinois. Both teams are one win away from bowl eligibility.

7. San Diego State (7-2). The Aztecs struggled to put away a bottom-tier opponent for the third straight week, this time beating Colorado State 24-19. Freshman Ronnie Hillman went over the 1,000 yard mark for the season. They face a huge test against TCU on Saturday, but for now they are the third-best team in the Mountain West.

8. Temple (8-2). The Owls have hit a nice stride with new starting quarterback Mike Gerardi, who had his best game of the season in a 28-10 win over Kent State. Two tough games are left -- against Ohio and Miami (Ohio). All three teams have one loss in the East Division.

9. Hawaii (7-3). The Warriors had their worst offensive performance in 12 years in a loss to Boise State. Yes, the loss came to the No. 4 team in the country, but a lot more was expected of the No. 1 passing team in the country.

10. Fresno State (6-2). We’ll know how good the Bulldogs are after Saturday, when they host Nevada.

Dropped out: East Carolina.
BACK TO TOP