College Football Nation: Week 2 picks 2009
Posted by ESPN.com's Chris Low
My overall record in Week 1 was 10-2, but it’s hard for me to get excited.
In the games that counted, I was 1-2. I correctly picked South Carolina’s win over North Carolina State, but missed on Alabama’s win over Virginia Tech and Oklahoma State’s win over Georgia.
I would have taken a 2-1 record in those three games, but a 1-2 record is unacceptable to start the season. My punishment will be finding the Georgia fan who barks the loudest and sit right beside him this Saturday at Sanford Stadium.
On second thought, maybe that’s going a bit far. It was just the opening week.
I’ll reconsider that punishment as I unveil my picks for Week 2 in the SEC:
Florida 52, Troy 10: Another week, another Florida scrimmage. Then again, maybe the Gators are good enough that they’re going to make a lot of games look like best-against-the-rest scrimmages this season. Look for Florida to break out a little more of its defensive package this weekend. Troy will throw the football a ton and is capable of scoring points. Just not against these guys.
Alabama 31, Florida International 7: This is the season opener for Florida International. Even if the Crimson Tide aren’t completely dialed in coming off that Virginia Tech game, they’re good enough to win this one going away. Think we might see more of freshman tailback Trent Richardson this weekend?
Tennessee 28, UCLA 24: These two teams have had some classic matchups over the years, and this one may well go down to the final few possessions. Tennessee’s players are believing right now under Lane Kiffin, although it’s difficult to draw a lot of conclusions from the Western Kentucky rout. The Bruins will be a better test, but not a good enough test to keep the Vols from going to 2-0.
LSU 31, Vanderbilt 21: It’s been a tough turnaround for LSU, which didn’t get back until later Sunday night from Seattle. Vanderbilt, meanwhile, is coming off an easy win over Western Carolina. If the Commodores can take away the Tigers’ running game, they have a great chance to win. That’s easier said than done.
Auburn 24, Mississippi State 13: The Tigers won 3-2 last season thanks to a home run in the bottom of the eighth inning. OK, there were no home runs, but a 3-2 score in football? A few things have changed since that shootout, most notably the head coaches. It’s the SEC debut for Auburn’s Gene Chizik and Mississippi State’s Dan Mullen. The difference in the game, though, will be Gus Malzahn’s balanced offense.
Georgia 17, South Carolina 10: The Bulldogs scored 14 points and won a year ago in Columbia. History says nobody will make it to three touchdowns. If they do, game over. In seven of the past eight meetings, the winning team has scored 20 or fewer points. The defenses appear to be even better than a year ago, which means a late turnover will probably decide it. Although he only threw one interception in the opener, taking care of the ball hasn’t exactly been South Carolina quarterback Stephen Garcia’s strength.
Posted by ESPN.com's Tim Griffin
Here are my Big 12 picks for this weekend.
Colorado 21, Toledo 20: This might be the biggest game of Dan Hawkins’ career after his team’s opening-game debacle against Colorado State. The Buffaloes need to get a ground game going -- remember that guy on the bench is Darrell Scott -- and do a better job of limiting big plays on defense. Toledo quarterback Aaron Opelt threw 67 passes in last week’s loss at Purdue, but will find it much tougher this week against the Buffaloes’ underrated secondary keyed by cornerback Jimmy Smith. I’m looking for the Buffaloes to do just enough to escape the Glass Bowl with a victory-- but it’s not going to be easy or pretty.
Iowa 21, Iowa State 17: The Cyclones have had much recent success against the Hawkeyes at Jack Trice Stadium, where they have won four of the last five in the series since 1999. The Hawkeyes struggled last week against Northern Iowa and were lucky to escape with a victory only after blocking field goals on the last two plays of the game. I look for replacement running back Adam Robinson to run with a little more confidence this week for the Hawkeyes. Don't be surprised if wily Iowa coordinator Norm Parker cooks up a defensive scheme that will handcuff the Cyclones’ emerging no-huddle offense. But it wouldn’t surprise me if the Cyclones were able to make this one close and maybe even eke out an upset victory.
Nebraska 41, Arkansas State 14: The Cornhuskers ran off a 49-3 victory over FAU and Bo Pelini wasn’t happy about his team’s defensive efforts. They’ll be facing another challenger from the Sun Belt in Arkansas State, who shouldn’t pose too many problems. I’ll be interested to see the continued development of future Cornhuskers like Rex Burkhead and Cody Green and see how the defense reacts after the scalding criticism of their coach. If Pelini gets mad after giving up three points, what's he going to do if they give up seven or 10 or 14 points this week?
Oklahoma State 45, Houston 34: Oklahoma State had a strong opening performance, including a salty defensive showing that stopped Georgia cold after the Bulldogs scored a touchdown on their opening possession. It will be interesting to see if that huge victory left the Cowboys with a hangover. It’s something they can’t afford, considering Houston’s high-powered offense keyed by Case Keenum. The Cougars had Oklahoma State on the ropes last season before the Cowboys blew the game open in the second half. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar kind of game on Saturday.
Texas 45, Wyoming 7: The Longhorns’ toughest nonconference road game shouldn’t pose too many problems, even with injuries on the offensive line and other personnel losses in the secondary. I’ll be interested to see how alternating Wyoming quarterbacks Robert Benjamin and Austyn Carta-Samuels attack a Texas defense that allowed more points in an opening game last week in 10 years. It will also be noteworthy to watch Texas’ running backs and see if Vondrell McGee still is the featured back after his fumble problems last week. Despite playing at high elevation, the Longhorns should have no worries.
Kansas 44, UTEP 35: Kansas ran the ball strongly last week against Northern Colorado and should be able to do the same against the Miners. But it wouldn’t surprise me if UTEP quarterback Trevor Vittatoe and some underrated offensive weapons make the Jayhawks sweat their way through their visit to the Sun Bowl. In the end, Dezmon Briscoe will make enough plays as a receiver and maybe as a kick returner to extend the Miners’ 16-game losing streak against Big 12 teams.
Missouri 34, Bowling Green 14: What can Blaine Gabbert do for an encore? His auspicious start has been the talk of the “Show-Me” State this week after a breakthrough performance against Illinois. I was just as impressed by the Tigers’ “Scorpion” defensive front which made Illinois quarterback Juice Williams miserable. The Missouri defense will be tested by Bowling Green’s talented pass-and-catch duo of Tyler Sheehan and Freddie Barnes. The Falcons beat Missouri in each of Gary Pinkel’s first two seasons at Missouri, including his first game there in 2001. But that’s a long time ago.
Oklahoma 34, Idaho State 0: Landry Jones gets his first start at quarterback as he replaces Sam Bradford. I look for Bob Stoops to have a conservative approach this week designed to build confidence for Jones over the next several games. There won’t be anything fancy as the Sooners will lean on a running game that needs to help restore assurance in an offensive line that struggled last week. Idaho State dropped a 50-3 outing at Arizona State last week in a game where Bengal quarterbacks threw four interceptions. It might be more of the same as the Sooners’ defense will be charged to pick up its performance with all of the lingering questions on offense.
Texas Tech 41, Rice 17: Taylor Potts didn’t have the best of college career starts, throwing three interceptions last week against North Dakota. I look for improvement from him and the Tech running attack as they meet rebuilding Rice. Owls coach David Bailiff is still struggling to find a quarterback and I expect both John Shepherd and Nick Fanuzzi to get an opportunity to play. But it won’t nearly be enough as the Red Raiders should cruise into the Texas game with a better performance than their first game.
Kansas State 31, Louisiana-Lafayette 24: Carson Coffman should have a better performance in his second game and the Kansas State special teams will be improved in a tougher-than-expected battle at Cajun Field. The Ragin’ Cajuns have a couple of nice offensive weapons in quarterback Chris Masson and running back Undrea Sails. If they get rolling, it could be a long night in the bayou for the Wildcats. I’m also a little concerned about how Kansas State’s lack of depth affects them at both offensive line and defensive line during what should be a hot, humid night. But in the end, Kansas State running backs Daniel Thomas and Keithen Valentine will provide enough offense for the Wildcats to escape Louisiana with a tough victory.
Last week: 10-2 (83.3 percent)
Season: 10-2 (83.3 percent)
Posted by ESPN.com's Ted Miller
Went 7-1 last week -- any idea which game I missed?
Things get a little more interesting this week with three marquee nonconference road games and a must-win for Washington State.
USC 27, Ohio State 20: The Buckeyes will show a lot of pride at home, but the Trojans just have too many horses on both sides of the ball.
Tennessee 28, UCLA 17: The difference is the home field -- Neyland Stadium is a heck of a place for a redshirt freshman quarterback and a young offensive line to try to figure things out.
Stanford 30, Wake Forest 27: Win or lose, Stanford looks good enough to earn bowl eligibility this year. But win this game, and the Cardinal might be on to something special.
Oregon 38, Purdue 20: Ducks show up, roll -- welcome back Jeremiah Masoli! -- wish they could get a do-over at Boise State. In more ways than one.
Oregon State 35, UNLV 27: The Rebels receivers will challenge the Beavers' secondary, but there will be too many Rodgerses on the field in Vegas.
Washington 40, Idaho 17: Huskies win! Huskies win! They end their embarrassing 15-game losing streak.
Washington State 31, Hawaii 28: Another step forward for the Cougars, who put up a nice fight against Stanford.
California 50, Eastern Washington 10: The Bears get an easy win a week before heading across the country to Minnesota.
Arizona 38, Northern Arizona 3: The key here for the Wildcats is gaining some confidence on offense, particularly for quarterback Matt Scott -- and maybe Nick Foles, too. Iowa awaits the next weekend as a true test.
Posted by ESPN.com’s Graham Watson
Not an awesome start to the 2009 picking season with a 6-4 record (yes, Notre Dame fans, I know it was a bad pick), but I’m hoping for much better results during the second week.
Not a lot of great games out there this weekend, but I thank all of you who tweeted games that they like to see picked this week. If you’re not following me on Twitter @ESPN_Others you’re missing out.
1. TCU 35, Virginia 6: TCU had an extra week to prepare and to get over the flu symptoms the team was dealing with. The Horned Frogs watched Boise State and BYU surge ahead in the race for a BCS berth, so they needs to make a grand statement this weekend. Sure, Virginia’s loss to William & Mary could have been a fluke, but I thought back in the summer that TCU would handle the Cavaliers.
2. Southern Miss 38, UCF 10: The Golden Eagles have been one of my favorites through the offseason and that’s not going to change especially against a UCF team that struggled against Samford. I’m still not impressed with the UCF offense and I think Southern Miss might be one of the most offensively diverse teams in the country. This one could get ugly early especially if DeAndre Brown plays.
3. Navy 28, La. Tech 21: I think this might be one of the better games of the weekend. Navy opened up a lot of eyes this week behind quarterback Ricky Dobbs and I think they carry that momentum into their home opener. La. Tech had a nice early showing against Auburn, but the Bulldogs offensive production is still a little suspect.
4. Memphis 24, Middle Tennessee 17: While I think both teams need to get their quarterbacking situations shored up -- five interceptions between the two teams -- I do like what the Memphis rushing game can do against Middle Tennessee’s rushing defense. That’s where the game will be won.
5. Colorado 31, Toledo 17: Toledo allowed Purdue to jump out to a 21-0 lead before the Rockets decided to get their heads in the game. If they do that against Colorado, I’m not sure the CU defense will give up a lot of scoring opportunities. While Toledo’s offense might be able to move the ball a little bit, I think Colorado’s offense will be motivated for this win.
6. West Virginia 24, East Carolina 21: ECU is the sexy pick here, but I think West Virginia is going to be highly motivated to pay the Pirates back for last season. This game will be about controlling the ground game. If ECU can limit Noel Devine and quarterback Jarrett Brown, this game could easily swing the other way.
7. Oklahoma State 52, Houston 31: The score might seem outrageous, but it’s definitely not impossible with two of the most offensively explosive teams in the country. After watching Oklahoma State put a hurtin’ on Georgia, it’s hard to like the Cougars in this game. However, there’s little doubt both these teams will be able to find the end zone.
8. Air Force 27, Minnesota 20: You knew I was going to have some sort of ridiculous upset pick in here and here it is. I wasn’t impressed with Minnesota against Syracuse and the fact that Air Force has been studying the Gophers since the summer makes this intriguing. It’s difficult to prepare for an option offense in a week, which I think will give the Falcons the advantage.
9. Pittsburgh 31, Buffalo 24: While I was impressed with Buffalo’s win over UTEP last weekend, it did give up a few rushing yards, which won’t fly against a Pitt offense that is built around the run. I do think the Buffalo offense can score on Pitt, but whether they have the depth to deal with Pitt defensively is another story.
10. Ohio 21, North Texas 17: While I’m routing for North Texas to do well this year (always love the underdog), I still think the defense needs work. I don’t think Ohio squanders the same scoring chances Ball State did. I think Ohio’s quarterbacking tandem of Boo Jackson and Theo Scott is dynamic and should be able to put up big numbers against UNT.
Posted by ESPN.com’s Heather Dinich
Raise your hand if you predicted William & Mary to beat Virginia last weekend. Mmhm. That’s what I thought. With the exception of the two FCS losses, and the losses to Baylor and South Carolina, I survived the first round of picks last weekend, correctly calling seven of 11 games. Let’s see if I can fare better this week:
Georgia Tech 21, Clemson 17: Both teams only had four days to prepare for this game, so each should have their share of moments, both good and bad. But the Yellow Jackets have more answers on offense right now, Paul Johnson has been calling plays much longer than Billy Napier and home-field advantage means something.
North Carolina 28, Connecticut 24: This is the pick I’m least sure of, but this is where I think UNC’s stellar defense will make the difference. UConn is 1-13 against ranked opponents, and quarterback Zach Frazer has struggled with the turnovers. Keep an eye on UConn defensive end Lindsey Witten, a veteran pass-rusher who will be making his way to T.J. Yates.
Army 21, Duke 20: Army will control the clock for most of the game with its triple option, and Duke’s miscues on special teams and its inability to run the football will be exposed. Army is trying to start 2-0 for the first time since the 1996, and first-year coach Rich Ellerson has implemented new offensive and defensive schemes that have those within the program believing they can win.
Virginia Tech 42, Marshall 7: The Hokies have won their home opener in 20 of 22 tries under coach Frank Beamer. Virginia Tech has won 30 straight nonconference home games and is 4-0 against Marshall at home. This is a perfect chance for the Hokies to regroup from their loss to Alabama.
Boston College 31, Kent State 10: If they did it last week, there’s no reason the Eagles can’t do it again and start off 2-0. It will help to have starting right tackle Rich Lapham back, as he missed last weekend’s game against Northeastern with an injury. That makes four of five starters back up front from a year ago, and the Eagles’ offensive line has an average height of 6-foot-6 and they weigh an average of 306 pounds -- a total of 1,530 pounds.
TCU 28, Virginia 10: This one could be embarrassing. No. 17-ranked TCU has earned its spot in college football’s national picture under respected coach Gary Patterson, as the Horned Frogs are 11-3 in their past 14 games against teams from leagues with automatic BCS bids. For Virginia’s offense to struggle the way it did against William & Mary doesn’t bode well against a team that has not allowed a touchdown in each of its past two season openers.
Florida State 41, Jacksonville State 14: Even with former LSU quarterback Ryan Perrilloux back in the lineup, the Noles should overwhelm Jacksonville State with their speed and athleticism on both sides of the ball. As long as FSU put the Miami game behind it, there should be no reason for an upset watch here.
Maryland 21, James Madison 17: This game, however, might be a different story. The Terps took the loss to Cal hard, and JMU is well-coached. The Dukes, ranked No. 6 in the FCS preseason poll, have yet to play a game and return 11 starters from a team that finished 12-2 last year and won the CAA with an 8-0 record. This one is worth keeping an eye on.
NC State 28, Murray State 3: This is a chance for the Wolfpack to correct their mistakes on offense and fine-tune the defense, though the Racers scored in seven different ways last week against Kentucky Wesleyan, including setting a new school record with two safeties in the first half. Still, Murray State was a 5-7 team in the Ohio Valley Conference last year, so there should be no excuses.
Wake Forest 21, Stanford 20: Jim Grobe said Stanford is an even better team than Baylor, but the Demon Deacons know their four turnovers contributed to their loss last weekend. If the Deacs cut down on their mistakes and don’t give up as many big plays on defense, they should be able to rebound.
MIAMI: OFF
Posted by ESPN.com's Adam Rittenberg
My forecast of Big Ten perfection in Week 1 came up a little short, thanks to a miserable performance by Illinois. Still, 10-1 isn't bad, but things will get much tougher for myself and the league this Saturday. Big Ten players and coaches agree that big nonconference victories are the only way to repair the league's national reputation, and Week 2 will go a long way toward helping or hurting the conference.
How will things shake out? Not so good for the Big Ten.
Michigan State 37, Central Michigan 17: Central Michigan is one of those non-BCS programs that looks like it should beat the big boys. But the Chippewas rarely come through, with last week's game at Arizona serving as the latest example. Dan LeFevour makes a few more plays against the Spartans, but Michigan State has too much talent on both sides of the ball. The Spartans will get a little more clarity at quarterback, though I'm not sure who separates himself.
Western Michigan 31, Indiana 27 -- Until the Hoosiers establish a consistent rushing attack and get tougher in the secondary, they're not going to win many games. Western Michigan quarterback Tim Hiller bounces back from a subpar performance against Michigan and tosses three touchdown passes in Memorial Stadium. IU's Ben Chappell has another nice game but the Broncos score late to secure a road win.
Northwestern 38, Eastern Michigan 9 -- For the second straight week, the Wildcats should have little trouble on their home field. Eastern Michigan comes off a 13-point home loss to Army and faces a Northwestern defense that coach Pat Fitzgerald really challenged this week. NU quarterback Mike Kafka continues to build confidence and some separation occurs in the running back group, with either Stephen Simmons or Arby Fields emerging as the top man.
Penn State 41, Syracuse 10 -- Greg Paulus looked impressive in Syracuse's opener, but reality strikes for the former Duke point guard at Beaver Stadium. Penn State's defensive front takes no mercy, with or without Navorro Bowman, and Paulus should be in for a long afternoon. Nittany Lions quarterback Daryll Clark delivers another gem and running back Evan Royster eclipses 100 rush yards as Penn State rolls again.
Wisconsin 28, Fresno State 24 -- Pat Hill's team won't be intimidated at Camp Randall Stadium and could very well pull the upset Saturday. Wisconsin gets a big performance from running back John Clay, while Scott Tolzien maintains his steadiness at quarterback. The flu bug that swept through Wisconsin's team earlier this week doesn't figure to keep many key players off the field. The Badgers escape this one, but just barely.
Iowa 23, Iowa State 17 -- It won't be easy for the Hawkeyes at Jack Trice Stadium. Then again, it never is. Iowa State jumps ahead early before Hawkeyes quarterback Ricky Stanzi and tight end Tony Moeaki bring their team back with a pair of touchdown connections. Redshirt freshman Adam Robinson capitalizes on his opportunity at running back and scores the decisive touchdown midway through the fourth quarter. Iowa wins in Ames for just the second time since 1997.
Notre Dame 30, Michigan 27 -- Easily the toughest game to pick this week, and one that could go either way. Michigan will win if its defensive line consistently pressures Jimmy Clausen, but it'll be tough for the Wolverines' secondary to contain Notre Dame's offensive weapons for 60 minutes. Clausen starts slow before picking things up in the second half, while Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson make a few more mistakes in a narrow defeat.
Minnesota 27, Air Force 24 -- The first game at TCF Bank Stadium will be a memorable one, as Minnesota and Air Force pace one another for four quarters. Air Force's offense will test Minnesota's discipline on defense, and the Gophers need to find more options on offense besides star wide receiver Eric Decker. In the end, Minnesota's run game wears down the Falcons as Duane Bennett rushes for two touchdowns in an exciting victory.
Illinois 44, Illinois State 10 -- Arrelious Benn should be back on the field, which means better things for the Illinois offense. Illinois State will be without its starting quarterback, and Illini linebackers Ian Thomas and Martez Wilson take advantage. Illinois gets well against an overmatched and wounded opponent before beginning a brutal stretch to Big Ten play in two weeks.
USC 30, Ohio State 23 -- It won't be another debacle for the Buckeyes, but I can't see them winning this game without major improvement on both sides of the ball. And really, when was the last time Ohio State hit on all cylinders against a top 15 team? Was it 2006? Terrelle Pryor delivers a strong performance, but USC wins the battle at the line of scrimmage more often than not, and its stable of running backs takes advantage. Matt Barkley isn't a huge factor but makes enough plays to win.
Oregon 38, Purdue 31 -- I really want to pick Purdue here because Oregon could be on the brink of self-destruction, but I'm just not sold on the Boilers' defense after the Toledo game. Open-field tackling means everything against the spread offense, and even without LeGarrette Blount, Oregon's attack will be better. Could see the Ducks in a blowout; could see the Boilers in an upset. Oregon ends up winning a fairly tight contest, though Ralph Bolden has another big game for Purdue.
Season record: 10-1 (.909)
Posted by ESPN.com's Brian Bennett
I went 5-1 last week, which is a record I'll take any day. I just wish I hadn't missed the most important one.
Never fear. The quest for perfection resumes this week:
West Virginia 24, East Carolina 17: The Mountaineers have had this game circled on their calendars all year. That motivation, plus the fact it's at home, should be enough for them to get it done. If not, then West Virginia is not the team I think it can be.
North Carolina 28, Connecticut 20: The Huskies are at home, but the game has been curiously slow to sell out. The Tar Heels have a few too many athletes for UConn to handle, though it will be close. I just don't think Zach Frazer can play well enough at quarterback to keep the North Carolina defense off balance.
Penn State 35, Syracuse 14: The Orange were a nice story in Week 1 with the way they hung in and almost beat Minnesota at home. Well, Penn State is a whole lot better than Minnesota, and Happy Valley is a whole different place to play than the Carrier Dome.
Pittsburgh 31, Buffalo 20: Pitt fans should be on full upset alert with their team traveling to the defending MAC champions' place. But the Panthers barely showed anything last week in rolling past Youngstown State. They'll open up the playbook a bit this weekend, get Jonathan Baldwin more involved and win without too much trouble.
South Florida 44, Western Kentucky 12: The Bulls are going bowling. Check that. They're going to Bowling Green, Ky. The only way they don't blow out the Hilltoppers is if they're already daydreaming about the Florida State game in two weeks. Even then, this should never be in doubt.
Cincinnati 42, Southeast Missouri State 14: The Bearcats could probably score as much as they want in this game. It's a better idea to get the starters out early and make sure they're well rested for next week's game at Oregon State.
Rutgers 35, Howard 7: Somebody has to pay for Monday's embarrassment on national TV. Howard happens to be the unfortunate recipient of that punishment.
Last week: 5-1 (.833)
Posted by ESPN.com's Brian Bennett
We're off to a 1-0 start here in picking Notre Dame's outcomes. The pressure increases this week. Let's keep it rolling.
Notre Dame 34, Michigan 29: The Notre Dame-Michigan game feels important again, and so it's time for the two old rivals to stage a classic game. The Fighting Irish offense is on a serious roll, albeit against WAC defenses. The Wolverines will put up much more of a fight and will challenge the Notre Dame offensive line, but I still think Jimmy Clausen will get his yards and scores against a shaky secondary. On the flip side, even though Nevada got shut out last week in South Bend, the Wolf Pack managed to churn out big gains on several runs, and I expect Michigan's option game to do the same.
In the end, Notre Dame just has a little too much experience, especially against a pair of freshman quarterbacks. The Irish hold on late for a 2-0 start.
Last week: 1-0.
BACK TO TOP
Page: 1


