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Oregon may learn its fate from the NCAA in advance of the 2013 season.

Oregon and former coach Chip Kelly appeared before the NCAA's committee on infractions (COI) last Friday, according to an SI.com report.

SI.com's Thayer Evans reported that Kelly said Oregon used Willie Lyles and Houston-based Complete Scouting Services "the same way other schools do."

Last week, Oregon acknowledged major NCAA violations in connection with recruiting and proposed a two-year probation with the loss of one scholarship in each of the next three years, according to documents released by the school. Those documents, which were part of an abortive attempt for Oregon to negotiate a summary judgment with the NCAA, also stated that the NCAA enforcement staff had not found Oregon guilty of a lack of institutional control or unethical conduct.

That doesn't mean the COI won't -- and those documents were months old -- but those are the two most worrisome charges, which tend to lead to the most severe penalties.

The NCAA began looking into possible violations following reports about payments Oregon made to recruiting services, including a $25,000 payment to Lyles and Complete Scouting Services in 2010. Lyles had connections with Oregon recruits.

When the COI rules, Oregon will have the option to appeal. If the Ducks opt to go that direction, that could extend the process through the 2013 season.

The quote attributed to Kelly is meaningful. Oregon wasn't the only school that used Lyles, who was termed a "booster" by the NCAA. That complicates the NCAA's position, particularly with the Ducks football program operating at this time under vague rules about recruiting services.

Oregon's athletic department released a statement after the SI report.

“Regardless of when or where the hearing occurs, review is ongoing until the NCAA Committee in Infractions issues its final report,” it said. “The integrity of the process and our continued full cooperation with the NCAA prohibits us from publicly discussing the specifics of this matter.”

1. Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby, speaking on the Longhorn Network, sounded genuinely excited about the new college football playoff. “I really feel like we are close to getting it right,” Bowlsby said. And here’s a nugget for those of us old enough to remember the special feeling of the New Year’s Day bowls. With the semifinals, Bowlsby said, “We will recapture December 31 and January 1 for college football. And that’s going to be a special festival.”

2. The relationship between the University of Oregon and Willie Lyles, the Texas-based talent spotter, wedged itself into the space between the lines of the NCAA Manual the moment that Oregon paid Lyles $25,000 for outdated, slapdash evaluations. But according to the media reports on the document dump executed by Oregon this week, the gray area is more light than dark. If the NCAA didn’t find a lack of institutional control, then Oregon is guilty of a misdemeanor, not a felony. That makes all the difference.

3. The Alabama football team made its third trip to the White House in the past four years. In 2010, President Obama hosted the Crimson Tide in the East Room; in 2012, on the South Lawn, and on Monday, on the South Portico. “They are starting to learn their way around the White House,” the President said. “I was thinking about just having some cots for them here, they’re here so often -- except we couldn’t find any that were big enough.” The Alabama traveling party left the White House just 20 minutes before the explosions in Boston.

Oregon and the NCAA agree: The football program committed major violations in connection to the Willie Lyles case, The Oregonian and Portland, Ore., television station KATU reported Monday.

The disagreement, however, that prevented Oregon and the NCAA from reaching a summary judgment is this, from The Oregonian:

Oregon and the NCAA, however, reached an impasse late in 2012 while attempting to agree on the severity of one violation concerning the Ducks' $25,000 payment to Texas-based talent scout Willie Lyles. The Ducks believe the impermissible "oral reports" delivered from Lyles constitute a secondary violation; NCAA enforcement officials believe them to be another "major violation."

It makes sense that's at issue, although the Pac-12 blog is of the mind that this impasse was more about the NCAA's committee on infractions (COI), which demanded a hearing, than the NCAA's enforcement staff, which seemed to be in accord with Oregon.

The strength of Oregon's position is the way the NCAA reacted to other recent cases, as well as the gray area with NCAA rules on recruiting services.

The strength of the NCAA's position is that it can do what it wants, then justify it after the fact, such as when former Miami athletic director Paul Dee said about USC's Reggie Bush, "High-profile athletes require high-profile compliance," which he just spun together for reporters because it doesn't exist in the NCAA rulebook.

Still, there is good news for Oregon from these reports, and it might be more important than what led the story:

However, the documents also state NCAA enforcement staff said they had "no finding of lack of institutional control and no finding of unethical conduct," key points when it comes time for punishment to be considered, KATU reported. Oregon is expected to appear before the NCAA's committee on infractions sometime this year.

"Lack of institutional control" and "unethical conduct" are the killers when it comes to penalties. Those quash postseasons and handfuls of scholarships. Of course, these documents are dated, so it's possible, if unlikely, the COI could up the ante.

Further, Oregon's case is probably helped by the program's big news this year: The departure of coach Chip Kelly to the Philadelphia Eagles.

Violations connected to Lyles came on Kelly's watch. He's gone. That should soften the eventual blow to some extent.

To show you the university's thinking, it "proposed to self-impose a two-year probation for the football program and a reduction of one scholarship for each of the next three seasons."

It wanted to be whipped by a wet noodle three times.

Yet even if you doubled that -- four years of probation and two scholarships for each of the next three seasons -- you're not talking about a major hit to the program. Signing just 23 and maxing out at 83 scholarships for the next three years won't knock the Ducks out of the nation's top 10.

All indications are that Mark Helfrich will be promoted from Oregon's offensive coordinator to head coach, but athletic director Rob Mullens isn't showing his cards just yet.

During a news conference Wednesday after Chip Kelly suddenly decided to reverse course and take over the Philadelphia Eagles after saying Jan. 7 he would stay in Eugene, Mullens said there will be a full-on coaching search, meaning he will adhere to university policies and procedures as well as a state law that requires him to interview at least one minority candidate.

"We don't have a leader in the clubhouse," he said. "We will be interviewing multiple candidates."

Just don't bet against Helfrich getting the job.

Mullens admitted that he was as shocked as many fans about Kelly's reconsideration of the Eagles. Mullens said Kelly called him at 7:15 a.m. Wednesday to tell him of his change of heart.

"He said, 'I've thought long and hard over the last 10 days and I'm going to take the Eagles opportunity,'" Mullens said. "He said he's always been intrigued by the challenge of the NFL and this was the right time, and he didn't know if there would be another opportunity like this and he felt like he needed to do it."

Mullens said his impression was that Kelly simply had a change of heart since Jan. 7 and that Kelly had not engaged in a second, secret round of negotiations with the Eagles.

Mullens said the "timing was less than ideal," but he wouldn't be rushed into making a hire.

As for the popular idea among Oregon rivals that Kelly is leaving to escape NCAA sanctions, Mullens said, "I don't think that was a factor in his decision."

It was reported in mid-December that Oregon will have a hearing in front of the NCAA committee on infractions, likely this spring, after it failed to obtain a summary disposition from the NCAA for the investigation of the school's use of scout Willie Lyles. The odds that something new happened in that investigation between then and now are close to zero. That inquiry is in the exact same place it was on Jan. 7, when Kelly wanted to stay in Eugene.

Mullens seemed a bit frustrated with how things went down, but obviously Kelly's unprecedented success made the specter of other opportunities luring him away an annual reality for the program.

"Hey, it is what it is. We're here, moving forward," Mullens said. "We're not going to worry about what happened. He made a decision that was best for him. We wish him well. He's been great for Oregon football, and we're moving on."

Chip Kelly is not one to do things the conventional way, even leaving Oregon for the Philadelphia Eagles. He plays football by a different tempo and he lives by a different tempo. When you think he will zig, he zags. And he has a flair for the dramatic.

The big news on Jan. 7 was that Kelly had turned down his NFL suitors, including the Eagles. He didn't feel the need to comment then, which might be telling as to his reversal of course that would send shock waves across the Pac-12 and college football less than 10 days later.

Kelly went for the double shocker. It was shocking to learn he had decided to stay at Oregon after a flurry of interviews following a Fiesta Bowl victory over Kansas State. And now, three weeks before national signing day, it's shocking that ESPN's Chris Mortensen broke the news of his departure to the Eagles.

Every indication is that offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich will be promoted to replace Kelly after the school negotiates some bureaucratic hiring hoops, as Oregon has a state law requiring public universities to interview at least one minority candidate for head-coaching positions. That was the word a year ago when Kelly nearly left for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and USA Today has already reported the passing of the torch to Helfrich in the event of Kelly's departure.

Kelly was 46-7 over four seasons at Oregon, leading the Ducks on their most successful run in program history. The Ducks have played in four consecutive BCS bowl games, winning the past two, including their first Rose Bowl victory since 1917. Oregon has finished ranked in the top five for three consecutive seasons.

Kelly doesn't owe any more to Oregon. That success is enough. Fans shouldn't feel bitter or betrayed. Sure, the NCAA may shortly impose sanctions on the program over Kelly's involvement with street agent Willie Lyles. That is a black mark. But it's unlikely those penalties will be harsh enough to erase the brilliance that came before.

For Kelly, 49, this is an opportunity to test his considerable football acumen at the highest level. While he is known for his innovative, up-tempo, spread-option style of offense, know that Kelly is all about winning. He will adapt to his personnel and the differences in the NFL game. He won't, say, have his $18 million quarterback running the option 15 times a game.

And if things don't work out in the NFL, Kelly will have his pick of college jobs. It will be like Nick Saban's ill-fated tour in Miami. There's little risk for him in taking his NFL shot.

As for Oregon, there will be questions. While Helfrich will bring system and program continuity and should be able to retain a significant number of Ducks assistant coaches, including defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti, he's not Kelly, nor does he have head-coaching experience.

Helfrich has been a quarterback coach at Boise State, Arizona State and Colorado -- he was the Buffs' offensive coordinator, too -- before Kelly hired him in 2009.

"He's really smart, really intelligent," Kelly said at Fiesta Bowl media day when asked why he made Helfrich his first offensive coordinator. "He brought a different perspective to our staff, because he had a different background. He wasn't a spread guy. I wanted to bring someone in who wasn't going to tell us what we already knew."

When asked what advice he'd give to Helfrich if he became a head coach, Kelly said he'd give him the same advice former Oregon coach Rich Brooks gave Mike Bellotti and Bellotti gave him: "Be yourself. You can't be someone else."

While Helfrich has a lighter touch -- more of a polished, people person -- than Kelly, that could mean little on the field and in the locker room. The question will be whether he can command the same respect and dedication that Kelly did. Can he maintain the Ducks' "Win the day" culture that was as efficient and productive as any in the country?

After the Fiesta Bowl win, Oregon's players were asked about Kelly potentially leaving and Helfrich taking over. They seemed uniformly confident that Helfrich would be up to the task.

"Expect the same," All-American running back Kenjon Barner said. "Nothing will change."

Said offensive lineman Kyle Long, who is expected to be an early-round NFL draft choice this spring: "Seamless transition. [Kelly and Helfrich are] cut from the same tree. I'll tell Duck Nation right now, Coach Helfrich is a brilliant coach. Great relationships with his players and other staff members. We all love Helf."

Kelly certainly left his successor a strong hand. The Ducks welcome back 15 position-player starters next fall, including star redshirt freshman quarterback Marcus Mariota. When the 2012 season ended, the Ducks were widely viewed as a top-five team in 2013, perhaps as high as No. 2 behind two-time defending national champion Alabama.

While it's nice to have a good team coming back, Kelly's successor also will inherit high expectations. Ducks fans are no longer satisfied with a top-25 team that plays in a nice bowl game. They expect Pac-12 championships. They expect to compete for national titles. And more than one loss is a disappointment.

If the 2013 Ducks go 10-3, a record that was outstanding before Kelly arrived, there will be immediate grumbling.

While Oregon fans are probably wringing their hands with worry, fans of 11 other Pac-12 teams are elated, most particularly those at Oregon State and Washington, the Ducks' most bitter rivals. Kelly had built a juggernaut, even if it was toppled atop the conference this fall by Stanford. Now there is an opportunity to change the balance of power in both the Pac-12 North Division and the Northwest.

When it was reported that Kelly was returning to Oregon nine days ago (Kelly had not talked about it), college football retained its West Coast equilibrium. There seemed to be renewed clarity, at least in the short term.

His departure leaves an uncertain void. While many believe Helfrich can capably fill that void, the uncertainty will remain until toe meets leather and the Ducks continue to produce the fancy-pants, winning product that Kelly brought to Eugene.

Chip Kelly was gone, off to the NFL. It was Cleveland. Then Philly. And then he wasn't.

Kelly's second deep NFL flirtation -- recall last winter's "did-he-or-didn't-he?" with Tampa Bay -- ended with him back at Oregon, back atop the Pac-12's present superpower.

Why did Kelly stay? He has yet to comment, which is telling. He feels no need to announce no change, though he is completely aware it's major news. The Pac-12 blog believes, according to no sources whatsoever, that Kelly returned to his cavernous Eugene home Sunday and cranked up the Sinatra and sang along: "I did it myyyyyy waaaaaayyyy!"

Kelly is 46-7 overall at Oregon. He's led his team to four consecutive BCS bowl games, winning the last two. He won 12 games this year by at least 11 points. It's fair to say he's pretty good at leading a football team.

The immediate reaction in some quarters to Kelly's return -- other than surprise from just about everyone -- is that Kelly can't keep doing it like this, both with NFL folks and with Oregon.

Both sides, it is reasoned, will get tired of the fickleness. Does Kelly want to be Oregon's coach? Or does he want to be something else? He must decide!

No, he doesn't. Kelly can do what he wants as long as he keeps winning with panache. When everyone knows you are one of the best living football coaches, you can write your own ticket. Kelly could announce tomorrow that all Oregon fans will be required to change their underwear every half-hour and all underwear will be worn on the outside so Ducks officials can check, and everyone would go, "OK!"

Oregon fans might wish he'd just tell the NFL folks he's not interested, but they get over their frustration when they see he and his staff outcoach a Kansas State team that is as well coached as any in the nation.

NFL teams might get tired of being led on, but they get over that when they see the discipline, focus and offensive magic Kelly produces.

Let me make something clear: Kelly would be successful in the NFL. Of that I have almost no doubt. The analysis you keep hearing about his present systems not working in the NFL is superficial bunk. Kelly's "systems" are all about winning games. Give him Tom Brady, and Kelly would no longer call designed runs for his QB. He'd line up with three fullbacks tomorrow if that helped him win the day.

So know this, too: The NFL will be back. And Kelly is likely to talk to them. At some point, a team might foster an interview that wins Kelly over. But that hasn't happened yet and he, again, remains the Ducks coach.

As a result, Oregon's quiet recruiting season might get a bit louder. Expect some major prospects who were awaiting Kelly's plans to come a-calling.

The other layer to this is the NCAA. One of the potential harrumphs over Kelly leaving would have been expected NCAA sanctions over L'Affair de Willie Lyles. He would have looked like the second-coming of Pete Carroll, who bolted USC ahead of severe penalties.

Some might read into this Kelly's confidence that the sanctions won't be severe, and that's not unreasonable. But it also shows Kelly isn't one to run away from a potential problem. At least, not yet.

Oregon will be ranked in the preseason top five next year. It welcomes back eight starters on offense, including QB Marcus Mariota, a budding Heisman Trophy candidate, and seven on defense. The biggest questions are at linebacker, running back and offensive guard. If the Ducks avoid a postseason ban, they will be national title contenders. Again.

The allure of coaching that team kept Kelly in Eugene. That means nothing for 2014 and beyond. Yes, this could become an annual dance between Kelly and various suitors, one that fans breathlessly follow on Twitter -- "He's gone!" "He's staying!" -- as they learn to mock the term "sources."

It might be emotionally exhausting and generally frustrating for Ducks fans, but this is the annual tax a team pays for having a coach whom everyone else want to lead their team.

Thanks for all your emails this week, folks. Enjoy the game tonight between Texas Tech and Minnesota, and follow me on Twitter for a little live commentary.

Here's where you can reach me if you've got more to say.

J.J. in Tumalo, Ore., writes: Dave thanks for the B12 takes.Seastrunk - is a prima donna jerk. Is he calling out his coach to give him more touches? I never heard James or Barner breast beat. Why are his references to Willie Lyles taken with validity when James comments are not? The kid is just another blow hard and his coach is a fool for supporting his remarks. It is BAYLOR after all. RG3 caught lightning in a bottle. No Baylor kid is going to win another Heisman.Peace out.

David Ubben: A lot to chew on here, much of it a bit silly. First off, Seastrunk isn't a prima donna. I don't buy that at all. He's a kid who perhaps overestimated his ability in relation to other Oregon backs coming out of high school, and got discouraged when he didn't see the field. Not being as good as De'Anthony Thomas or Kenjon Barner isn't much to be ashamed of. He wanted to go somewhere closer to home and somewhere he could play. I wouldn't fault any kid for that. He's clearly a very talented guy who is extremely confident in his abilities. He's done a decent amount to provide some evidence for his belief, even if it's a touch premature. If you're Briles, you better support him, too. You undermine a player, you run a real solid risk of losing the locker room. What kind of coach would tell a player he can't win a Heisman? Belief is the first step to achievement.

I don't know what you mean in regards to Lyles. It's a whole lot of dishonesty by one or both parties in that whole deal. Everyone involved with that whole Oregon deal has given plenty of reason for skepticism. I'm not taking anybody's word for anything on that whole scandal without some kind of documented proof. Let the NCAA do its job (albeit slowly and with ineptitude) and dish out the punishments as they come.

I wouldn't be so sure that this is the same Baylor. Baylor never had Art Briles. The game has changed. Ask around the Big 12. Baylor lost a Heisman winner and the leading rusher and receiver in the Big 12 and still won seven games. That's a near impossibility in the past, but this year, it was largely accepted. That's huge. Baylor can definitely win another Heisman and do so in the near future.

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John in Olathe, Kan., writes: The last two years, the media voters underestimated the quality of the K-State teams.Last year they were picked to finish 8th in the conference and ended up 8th in the nation. This season, we all know the media predicted a 6th place spot for the Cats and the are ranked 5th with one loss. Will the media short change K-State again next year? In a way, I hope they do because it provides great motivation for the team. But the question is, when will the media start to believe in Snyder's ability to coach his 3-star recruits, transfers and walk-ons to beat the over-hyped programs?

DU: It's all about known quantities. I was skeptical of K-State after it lost Daniel Thomas from a very average team, but Collin Klein's emergence made the Wildcats a contender and surprised us all. I thought the skepticism around K-State this year was nutty. I believed in the 'Cats from the start. Next year, I expect them to be just outside the top half of the Big 12 or so. It's just natural. They're losing the heart of the team on both sides of the ball. If K-State exceeds expectations, it will do so on the back of Daniel Sams or Jake Waters. It's just that simple.

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Dale Ozment in Hillsboro, Texas, writes: SOMEONE NEEDS TO TELL OUR BIG 12 COMMISIONER BOB BOWLSBY THAT WITH POSITION COMES RESPONSIBILITY-------- HIS MOTHER WOULD SCOLD HIM FOR NOT ATTENDING THE DALLAS BOWL GAME ----- IF HE KEEPS THIS UP WE WILL HAVE 2 ''BIG GAME BOBS'' IN THIS CONFERENCE----ANY COMMENTS THANK YOU

DU: Love the passion there, Dale, but don't get too bent out of shape. First off, "The Dallas Bowl Game" would more likely refer to the Cotton Bowl out in Arlington, which I'm sure Bowlsby will attend. However, it's a little unfair to fault the man for skipping out on what should be a yawn-worthy game at what amounts to the crack of dawn after New Year's Eve. He spent a long while out at Stanford, and the Rose Bowl is a bit of a different ballgame compared to the inaugural Heart of Dallas Bowl. Maybe he should be limiting himself to Big 12 games, but it's all just figurative anyway. Not much changes whether Bowlsby is at a game or not. It doesn't affect his ability to do his job. It's a little silly to get worked up over something like this.

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Zach Viglianco in Morgantown, W.Va., writes: RE: GRANT OF RIGHTS-I'm not a lawyer (yet), but I am a second year law student who was the top student in my Contracts class. I just wanted to comment briefly on the "grant of rights" situation.There is a fundamental tenet of contract law that says, basically, that the maximum amount of money one party can get from another party who breaks a contract the face value of that contract. IE, if I agree to buy your 96 Chevy for $10,000, then I back out of the deal, the MOST you would be able to get out of me in a lawsuit is 10 grand. (You might get less, but you certainly won't get more.)As you described in a recent mailbag, conference exit fees are basically arbitrary numbers- in legalese, they are "liquidated damage clause." Such a clause is used when figuring out how much a contract is worth is very complicated, or if the amount is variable. Basically, a liquidated damage clause says: We know that University X being in conference Y is worth something- Millions of dollars. But figuring out exactly how many millions its worth is either too hard or the value is constantly fluctuating, so instead of trying to figure it out, we'll just agree to [whatever the buyout is]. However, a liquidated damage clause must be REASONABLE and it cannot be used as a penalty-- a court won't enforce it if its unreasonable or clearly intended as something other than an estimate of damages (These clause are, of course, intended to be deterrents to breaking the contract... but they have to be structured in such a way that they are enforceable.) My larger point is that any Big 12 school can break its contract with the conference at any time. If that's the case, the grant of rights (as a provision of a contract that is no longer in force) would either be voided... or a court might construe the grant as essentially (you guessed it... a liquidated damages clause or a proxy for it). Then the question comes back, as it always does, to reasonableness.The grant of rights is quite possibly a better estimate of damages. It might hold up in court. But it might not. And even if it did hold up, a court could not force say, Texas, to show its football games on TV. At best it would force Texas to turn over proceeds from such showings to the Big 12 (which, of course means, that if Texas was offered a ridiculous amount of money... say to hypothetically join the SEC... the grant of rights wouldn't be a barrier to that move).Love the blog, hopefully this explanation makes sense and is at least somewhat helpful. Lets Go Mountaineers!!!

DU: Very interesting stuff. I don't have a ton to add, but this was a pretty interesting read from a more experienced legal perspective. I don't know if I can speak to the legitimacy of it, but it looked sound to me. Thanks for the email Zach, and good luck in law school. You seem bright. This is a complex issue.

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Blake in Kansas City writes: You don't think K-State has a chance to be a title contender next in the Big 12? Not even a chance? That's harsh to cut out the champion from the previous from even having a chance to do it.

DU: I don't know if I'd go as far to say they don't have a chance, but it's going to be very, very difficult in a league that should be well-stocked with teams who can win the league and teams who will have more experience. It's going to take a lot to climb over those teams like OSU, Texas, Oklahoma and TCU. Look at OSU this year. The Cowboys dealt with a lot, but they looked like a pretty good team and just didn't have enough to make a super serious run at a Big 12 title. They were alive late and logged some really nice wins, but even they won just seven games. That's not going to cut it. They finished three games back of the champions in Big 12 play. I'd expect K-State to do something similar next year.

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- There is a school of thought, now apparently subscribed to by a handful of desperate NFL teams, that if that uber-suave, hirsute gentleman from those wildly entertaining Dos Equis beer commercials revealed his true identity, he would rip off a bearded mask and reveal Chip Kelly.

Is Kelly the most interesting man in the world?

Pause for a moment before chortling over our potential hyperbole, for Kelly has packed a lot into his 52-game tenure at Oregon, including 45 victories.

He has run with the bulls in Pamplona. He has led the Ducks to three Pac-12 titles and four BCS bowl games. He has done humanitarian work in Africa. He has produced Oregon's first Rose Bowl victory in 95 years. He has visited U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Kelly, 49 and single, is also fiercely private. He has never cooperated with any truly in-depth "This is your life, Chip Kelly!" story, which is exceedingly rare for a high-profile coach. Nearly all his close friends are back in New Hampshire, where he's from and where he went to college.

Kelly doesn't like glad-handing boosters, something often viewed as a prerequisite for being a college coach. He particularly dislikes talking to reporters, and he goes to great lengths to make sure they understand.

The Dos Equis guy says, "Stay thirsty, my friends." Kelly would say, "Stay away, annoying hangers-on."

Yet the vast majority of Ducks fans not only love all the winning, they love Kelly for his wiseacre, smirking self. They chant "Big Balls Chip!" inside rocking Autzen Stadium to celebrate Kelly's penchant for going for it on fourth down, going for 2 and launching onside kicks at surprising times.

He tells fans, "Shut up!" for cheering behind him during an ESPN postgame interview, and they love him more. A Twitter page, Chipisms, celebrates not only Kelly's amusing or insightful wisdom -- “I saw the ‘Feel Sorry for Yourself’ train leaving the parking lot & none of our players were on it, so that was a good sign” -- but also for his snark.

Inquiries that Kelly doesn't like might get one-word answers, clichéd responses or snappy rejoinders that belittle his inquisitors. Questions that engage him, however, receive full and thoughtful treatment. Consider this response from an ESPN story on Kelly's trip to Africa, when he worked with adolescent girls who had no idea who he was.

"The real heroes are the little girls in Africa who are trying to better themselves so they can help their families," he said. "When I hear a coach say, 'We're grinding.' I'm like: You're sitting in a room with air conditioning watching videotape. That's not grinding."

There seem to be three facets to Kelly. His standoffish public face, the detail-obsessed coach and the Renaissance man determined to drink life to the lees away from the game. Even the hard-driving, "win the day" side of Kelly can loosen up behind closed doors; those who work with him frequently cite his sense of humor.

"He [jokes around] all the time," said offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich, a leading candidate to replace Kelly should he bolt for an NFL job. "It's not: 'Aha, he smiled! Isn't that amazing?' It's daily. We have a lot of fun."

Further, while Kelly's offense almost always runs like a finely tuned machine, plenty of, er, interesting things have been interspersed with winning during Kelly's tenure. Drama has not been lacking over the past four seasons.

His first game as Oregon's head coach remains his worst: A 19-8 loss at Boise State. Not only did the Ducks gain an embarrassing 152 total yards, but Kelly's star running back LeGarrette Blount punched a Broncos player afterward, bringing the hot light of controversy to his team's feckless performance.

Some thought Kelly was in over his head. He answered that by becoming the first Pac-10 coach to lead a team to an outright conference championship his first season.

Oh, and in a sign of interesting things to come, when a season-ticket holder wrote Kelly demanding a refund for his expenses incurred after attending that disastrous trip to Boise, Kelly quickly fired off a note with a personal check for $439.

Heading into 2010, starting quarterback Jeremiah Masoli was suspended after he was involved in the burglary of an Oregon fraternity house. Losing a star quarterback typically would damage a team's chances, but all Kelly's team did was finish undefeated and play for the national championship, losing 22-19 when Auburn kicked a last-second field goal.

The NCAA came calling during the 2011 offseason, wanting to know details of Kelly's and the program's dealings with street agent Willie Lyles. A distraction? Nope. Oregon won the conference a third consecutive year and the Rose Bowl against Wisconsin.

Kelly then nearly left for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. His quarterback, two-year starter Darron Thomas, had already opted to leave the program, which again threw into question the Ducks' prospects. But Kelly returned and so did the winning, with redshirt freshman Marcus Mariota earning first-team All-Pac-12 honors while leading the Ducks to a No. 4 ranking and a Fiesta Bowl berth opposite Kansas State.

Yet he arrives at the Fiesta Bowl amid swirling rumors that he's about to leave for his pick of available NFL jobs. Asked about his NFL ambitions this week, he gave a 235-word answer that essentially said "no comment."

"My heart is to win the day, and that’s it," he concluded. "I know everybody wants to hear a different answer, and I know at times when I don’t give you guys the answer you guys want, then I’m being evasive. I’m not being evasive. My job is to coach the University of Oregon football team, and I love doing it. And that’s what I’m going to do.”

So the question will linger for a coach who at the very least is currently the most interesting man in college football: Will the Fiesta Bowl be his last day to win for Oregon?

Oregon and the NCAA enforcement staff at one point agreed on the parameters of Le Affair de Willie Lyles. Otherwise, the collaborative efforts to reach a summary disposition would not have begun. For example, a summary disposition was never on the table for USC.

Then something changed, and the NCAA committee on infractions (COI) now wants its hearing. That means this dark cloud, which first drifted into Eugene in March 2011, will endure past the two-year mark.

Yes, it is quite reasonable for Oregon fans to be worried.

The simple reason for that was Oregon was going to be able to escape severe penalties mostly based on a technicality: The Ducks -- and the rest of college football -- were operating under vague rules about the use of recruiting services. If you have a lawyer write up a disposition about how and why Oregon paid a shyster $25,000 for nothing -- other than his "mentorships" with top recruits -- you can bury what it actually looks like in verbiage that can split a single hair 1,000 times.

In a hearing, however, you answer questions. You talk spontaneously. When people talk spontaneously, stupid things get said. Stupid things that might make Oregon's position look weaker.

It's possible that the COI just wants to talk. It wants to probe. It wants to hear Oregon's position from a variety of folks, including coach Chip Kelly. That doesn't necessarily mean it wants to bring a hammer. It just wants to understand a relatively new issue that the organization has been trying to wrap its hands around for a few years.

Since a summary disposition is a two-way negotiation, it's also possible that Oregon drew a line for the types of charges it was willing to accept. When the NCAA wouldn't meet Oregon at the line, the school's representatives decided they could handle a hearing and refused to yield any more ground.

Oregon does have counters to put before the COI, starting with the fact that Lyles provided his magical touch to more than a few programs. While Lyles was eager to talk to reporters about the school and coach that he feels betrayed him -- Oregon and Kelly -- he also talked to NCAA enforcement staff about his other, er, relationships.

Oregon, aware of some of this, will be able to compare what it did with what other schools did, and it won't look as bad. Part of the NCAA's problem here is fairness and consistency, never an organizational strong suit. Hitting Oregon with severe sanctions will invite backward- and forward-looking comparisons that will make the NCAA again look bad.

While the Pac-12 office likely is taking a dim view of the NCAA seemingly obsessing over the conference's present top power again, as it did with USC -- despite the rest of college football operating like the Wild West (Miami! Ohio State! North Carolina! The SEC!) -- the other 11 Pac-12 teams probably are cackling at Oregon's expense.

The NCAA's glacial investigative pace has left long-term clouds hanging over Eugene, and that hurts the program. The news this week turned those clouds a darker shade of gray. For one, schools competing with the Ducks for recruits can raise a more substantive specter of sanctions.

Further, the news this week allows competing schools to hit Oregon with another body blow: With the NCAA investigation now definitely enduring past the New Year, it's far more likely that Kelly will turn his attentions to forthcoming NFL offers (see Exhibit A: Pete Carroll bolting USC for the NFL ahead of NCAA sanctions).

If the parties had reached a summary disposition, those arguments would have been muted. Recruits would know where the program stands. They would know there were no additional motivations for Kelly to bolt for the NFL, even if some see that as an inevitability.

At some point, perhaps right now, the NCAA process needs to be part of this discussion, just as guilt, innocence and degrees of guilt are.

There is no justification for Le Affair de Willie Lyles to remain unresolved for two years. What happened to the peculiar alacrity applied to the Cam Newton case with Auburn? Or the Ohio State case where the NCAA seemed to say, "Hey, it's 4:55 p.m., time to go home, even if Sports Illustrated provided us an outline of what was going on in Columbus. Can't work until 5:10 or anything."

Oregon fans, you probably should be concerned. But you also should be angry.

The 2012 Civil War between Oregon and Oregon State doesn't match the 2000 game, when both teams were ranked in the top 10 for the first time in the rivalry's history, or the 2009 game, when the winner-take-all stakes were a Pac-10 title and a Rose Bowl berth. But it's pretty darn big.

The 116th Civil War, the seventh-oldest rivalry game in college football, in Reser Stadium on Saturday (3 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network) approaches the 2000 game in terms of both teams' rankings, the first time in the series that both were ranked in the top 10. Oregon was fifth and Oregon State eighth in that game, won 23-13 by the Beavers. This go-around, Oregon is again fifth and the Beavers 15th in the latest BCS standings.

There is no Rose Bowl on the line for Oregon State, as there was in 2008 and 2009, but the Beavers can play a spoiler role while boosting themselves in the Pac-12 pecking order.

Oregon still harbors hopes of slipping into the national title game, and the Ducks will win the North Division if they beat the Beavers and Stanford loses at UCLA on Saturday. Then Oregon would play host to UCLA on Nov. 30, with -- at least -- a Rose Bowl berth at stake.

And even if Stanford beats UCLA to win the North, an Oregon victory over the Beavers likely would earn it an at-large berth to a BCS bowl game, probably the Fiesta Bowl, where they could end up playing the Big 12 champ, likely Kansas State.

Oregon State? While its postseason destination is most likely the Holiday Bowl, ending a four-game losing streak in the rivalry series would be significant. It would certainly stem the momentum that has been decidedly in the Ducks' favor since an obscure coach from New Hampshire by the name of Chip Kelly arrived as the team's offensive coordinator in 2007.

While the 2008 and 2009 Civil Wars were big games with big implications, the 2010 and 2011 games were all about the Ducks. They were coronation events, as Oregon earned berths in the national title game and the Rose Bowl. The Beavers, meanwhile, were sucking on lemons, suffering through back-to-back losing seasons.

That had some Beavers fans grousing about coach Mike Riley and his staff. It wasn't only about a program backtrack. It was about what was happening 45 minutes to the south in Eugene. It's no fun losing games, but when you are losing, it's much worse when your rival is thriving.

Beavers fans saw Kelly -- smug, smirking, standoffish, annoyingly brilliant -- and felt they were getting left behind.

But we all know things can change quickly in college football. The Beavers are on a clear uptick. While both teams have a lot of talent coming back in 2013, it's Oregon that now has some question marks.

Will Kelly be lured away by an NFL offer? More than a few NFL sorts believe he will have his pick of jobs this offseason.

And what about the NCAA investigation into L'Affair de Willie Lyles? At some point penalties will be handed out. While those penalties are not expected to be crippling -- despite the uninformed blather coming from some people -- they certainly won't help the Ducks maintain their perch atop the Pac-12.

Just imagine how the next couple of months could go for Oregon State fans: 1. A Civil War victory over Oregon, ending a four-year losing streak in the series and the Ducks' three-year run of conference titles; 2. Kelly leaves Eugene for the NFL; 3. NCAA sanctions for the Ducks.

Let's just say more than a few Beavers fans would be high-fiving each other. And there would probably be more than a few Washington Huskies fans trying to get in on that action.

Or ... or ...

Oregon beats the Beavers for a fifth consecutive time, finagles its way into the national title game and then beats, say, Alabama for the school's first national title. Then Kelly announces he's staying in Eugene "for life" and the NCAA gently slaps the Ducks' wing.

So, yeah, there's a lot going on here.

Still, amid all these possibilities and speculations, good and bad for both programs, there is only one thing that either can control: Saturday's game.

Yes, it's pretty darn big.

Oregon released Friday to the media a "proposed findings of violations" from the NCAA, which says the Ducks' football program broke NCAA rules through its use of three recruiting scouting services and by exceeding the permissible number of coaches participating in recruiting at any one time.

Further, the NCAA is proposing that Oregon agree that from 2008 through 2011 "the athletic department failed to establish policies and procedures to monitor the football program's use of recruiting or scouting services."

This is not a formal Notice of Allegations from the NCAA -- the investigation remains ongoing for both Oregon and the NCAA -- and four of the document's seven sections are redacted. So drawing specific conclusions as to what this means for Oregon's football program is impossible.

You can read the document here (what's not redacted by Oregon). And here is a note to Oregon fans from athletic director Rob Mullens on the document's release. Here's a story from the Eugene Register-Guard. And one from The Oregonian, which noted: "Until [the] internal inquiry concludes, UO general counsel Randy Geller said, 'the university is not necessarily agreeing with the findings.'"

What does this mean?

Here's an educated guess: Oregon will not get a wrist slap from the NCAA. And it won't get horribly bombed.

Yeah, I know, thanks a lot.

Oregon fans looking for good news should note that a "failure to monitor" charge, while it can carry burdensome sanctions, is not the dreaded "lack of institutional control."

Still, predictions at this point as to what the NCAA eventually will do remain pure guesswork. For one, there's a lot of stuff Oregon won't let us see. For another, as pointed out by CBS Sports' astute Bryan Fischer in a Tweet, "Reading Oregon/NCAA docs, never been a major infractions case involving 13.14.3 (recruiting/scouting services). So definitely new ground."

This is unexplored territory for an organization that often seems to make completely random, arbitrary rulings. Predict outcomes at your peril.

Many of the NCAA's specific allegations focus on the Ducks getting "oral reports" from scouting services. That's a no-no.

What about Willie Lyles? Nothing earth-shattering. From the document: "In 2010, the football program paid $25,000 for a subscription to Complete Scouting Services (CSS) and received oral reports from CSS representative Lyles. Additionally, the football program failed to gather recruiting or scouting information from CSS at least four times per calendar year, as required by NCAA recruiting or scouting legislation."

As for the failure to monitor:

Regarding the recruiting or scouting services, the athletic department failed to establish policies and procedures to monitor the football program's use of recruiting or scouting services. Additionally, athletics administrators with responsibilities in the football program failed to monitor the information provided by recruiting or scouting services to ensure compliance with recruiting or scouting service legislation. This collective failure partly resulted in the violations outlined in Finding 2.

Recall how all of us media sorts have kept bringing up the loopholes and gray areas that are in play here? It's meaningful, again, that NCAA investigators/infractions folks have little experience with cases like this. Alleged "street agents" in football, while long an issue in basketball, are a mostly new thing. And a new area of emphasis for the NCAA.

My general impression here is that Oregon, from the beginning, has tried to work with the NCAA instead of quibble over details. It lawyered up with attorney Michael Glazier, a partner in the firm Bond, Schoeneck & King, the go-to guys for NCAA investigations, in order to best present its position, yes, but also to make sure it didn't violate the NCAA's sense of etiquette in these matters. While it's often incorrectly stated or written that USC didn't cooperate with the NCAA during the Reggie Bush case, there's no question that USC aggressively fought the allegations against it. It appears that Oregon isn't doing that, that it's trying to reach accord with the NCAA.

George Schroeder of the Register-Guard speculated on Twitter -- insightfully, I think -- that Oregon might hope for a "summary disposition" that would allow it to avoid an infractions committee hearing altogether. A plea bargain, so to speak.

That said, don't expect this case to be quickly wrapped up in a few weeks. The wheels of NCAA justice almost always move slowly, and, again, the Notice of Allegations has yet to arrive.

But the Oregon case is moving forward, providing grounds for hope to parties on both sides of the aisle.

Those who want Oregon to get hit hard -- despite no "lack of institutional control" -- probably feel like there's a chance that still happens. And Ducks fans can reasonably cross their fingers that eventual sanctions won't be severe enough to put an ax wound in the middle of a budding Pac-12 superpower.

LOS ANGELES -- On Saturday morning in a hotel ballroom, Wisconsin coach Bret Bielema and Oregon coach Chip Kelly will stand together and pose for pictures with the Rose Bowl trophy. It's the kind of staged, sometimes forced, photo op that occurs before every big game.

Stare at this particular picture a bit longer, though. Appreciate the similar traits each man brought to this moment, even though they are in many ways unique. Try to imagine how they'll look in the same pose when they are older. Because this image is likely to be repeated in the future.

Here is Oregon making its second Rose Bowl appearance in three years, and here is Wisconsin back in Pasadena for the second consecutive season. Kelly and Bielema are quickly becoming the faces of the most tradition-laden bowl game, even if they are not exactly cut from a traditional cloth.

One (Kelly) played and coached for more than a decade at the relative outpost of New Hampshire before suddenly emerging as the titan of West Coast football. The other (Bielema) is thoroughly Midwestern -- born in Illinois, played linebacker at Iowa, defensive assistant for the Hawkeyes and Kansas State -- yet knows how to merge new-school fun with old-school, power football.

Kelly is hailed as a genius, the offensive innovator whose forward-thinking, high-speed spread attack plays perfectly to the video-game generation. Bielema's scheme is more brute than scoot but is almost equally as effective. Kelly's Ducks have averaged 43.1 points per game since he became head coach in 2009. In that same time frame, Bielema's Badgers have averaged 39.2.

"What Bret's done with that program, as a coach from the outside you really kind of admire it," Kelly said. "There's a consistency to it. He has a style of offense he plays and a style of defense he plays, and they stick to that. And they're really, really good at it."

Both coaches have achieved a lot at a young age. Kelly is 48, while Bielema turns 42 on Jan. 13.

"I think with his age being a little bit closer to ours, it makes him a lot easier to relate to," Wisconsin linebacker Kevin Claxton said of Bielema. "He knows what we're thinking and going through."

Both men can be described as players' coaches. Kelly handled the very difficult LeGarrette Blount punching controversy in his very first game as head coach with a solid measure of both discipline and compassion for his player. Bielema pumps up rap music at practice and gives his players the freedom to be themselves. Kelly's players buy into his cult of personality. Bielema is more like your favorite uncle.

"He's so outgoing," said quarterback Russell Wilson, whom Bielema recruited as a transfer from NC State over the summer. "He tried to get to know me quickly, like he was my best friend, to be honest with you. But at the same time, he makes you work. He wants to see the best out of you and all his players."

Both men are single in a profession in which being seen as a family man is a good career choice. Bielema is engaged and plans to wed next spring, while Kelly dislikes discussing his private life.

Kelly and Bielema are liked but probably not loved by all their peers. They'll ruffle feathers on occasion with the way their teams continue to pile on the points during blowouts. If you're an opposing team's fan, you'd probably describe them as arrogant. You'd also secretly wish they were your team's coach.

The only real knock on either is a perceived failure to win games. Which is mostly ludicrous, considering that Bielema is 60-18 in six seasons and Kelly is 33-6 in three years at their respective schools. One guy is going to win his first BCS game on Monday night, while the other will have to fight off the "can't win the big one" charge a little harder.

Neither is blessed with an abundance of in-state talent from which to build his program. But Kelly has Phil Knight, those wild uniforms and that offense to attract skill players from around the country. Bielema likes to say his program isn't sexy, but there is no greater destination for an offensive lineman or a running back who wants to earn national honors and go to the NFL. The success of Wilson at quarterback has signaled to other skill players that you can do more at Wisconsin than just grind it out.

Bielema and Kelly are arguably the most successful examples ever of the head-coach-in-waiting practice. That idea is falling out of vogue now, but every school would do it if the transition went as well as it looked in Madison and Eugene. Bielema inherited a Badgers team that won 10 games in Barry Alvarez's final year; Kelly took over after Mike Bellotti won 10 games his last season.

There are subtle differences between the two, of course. Kelly has a heavy hand in play calling on offense, while Bielema delegates more to his assistants (which has helped two coordinators land head-coaching jobs in the past two seasons).

"One of the things I made as a decision early on as a head coach, I wasn't going to be involved in play calling on offense or defense," Bielema said. "I just call the good plays. ... I let guys coordinate and run it, but I'll always have constant feedback on things I like, dislike, and the way I see things unfold during practice."

Bielema is as accessible as any coach at a major program. He's unafraid to open his doors to the media, like when he allowed ESPN to follow Wilson around for a special last summer. Kelly is a little more roped-off, particularly to local reporters. But when he talks, he often gives thought-provoking and colorful answers.

Kelly's reputation has taken a hit with the ongoing NCAA investigation involving recruiting service owner Willie Lyles. Bielema has steered clear of any NCAA issues thus far.

Kelly told reporters on Friday that Bielema couldn't be considered an "up-and-coming" star head coach, because six years is a long time to be in the same job these days. That's true. But these two seem like prime candidates to build a lasting legacy where they are. Bielema enjoys a close relationship with Alvarez, now the Wisconsin athletic director, and has shown no inclination toward leaving Madison. Kelly insisted on placing a $4 million buyout in his contract to ward off potential suitors.

So take a look at the trophy photo again. Or don't. You'll probably have a chance to see it staged again soon.

Let's play a quick game of fill in the blank: Oregon fans are ... What comes to mind? Keep it clean, folks. Behave!

Yes, it is fair to say that Oregon fans have eagerly, zealously and vociferously embraced the recent success of their team. The seed that was planted when Kenny Wheaton went the other way against Washington in 1994 is now a full-grown oak, and Oregon fans enjoy pointing out that their oak is more stately and beautiful than yours.

Eleven other Pac-12 teams want Oregon to go away. We have bad news for those 11. Not happening.

With the Rose Bowl on Jan. 2 against Wisconsin, the Ducks are playing in their third consecutive BCS bowl game. No other team in the country has played in three consecutive BCS bowl games. But this rise to the nation's elite started before this run of conference success. Oregon's first taste of national title contention was in 2000 and 2001. After a middling, post-Joey Harrington, pre-Chip Kelly interim, it was ranked No. 2 and a national title contender in 2007 before quarterback Dennis Dixon blew out his knee. Oregon finished the 2008 season ranked 10th. It finished 11th in 2009 after losing the Rose Bowl to Ohio State. It finished third in 2010 after losing to Auburn in the national title game.

While opposing fans can still pull out the "They haven't won a BCS bowl game under Kelly" card, that tweak comes from beneath the Ducks in the Pac-12 pecking order, so as ripostes go, it's rather pyrrhic.

And the Ducks, even if they lose to Wisconsin, will be a preseason top-10 team in 2012, probably top-five if they win the Granddaddy. There certainly is a lot to like about the depth chart.

Not including junior running back LaMichael James, who is likely off to the NFL, the Ducks should welcome back six starters on offense, six on defense and both specialists in 2012. But that doesn't tell the entire story.

For one, the Ducks will have a two-year starter returning at quarterback in Darron Thomas. While Thomas has had runs of inconsistent accuracy, there are two bottom lines: He's 22-3 as a starter and has thrown 63 touchdown passes with just 16 interceptions.

But what's notable about the Ducks' depth chart is not just returning starters.

Oregon only lists a two-deep. That means 44 players on offense and defense. Of the 22 names on offense, just four are departing seniors, not including James. Of the 22 names on defense, just six are seniors.

And most of the players who are leaving -- or are expected to leave, as in James' case -- are presently backed up by intriguing young talents who already have significant game experience. James leaving? Well, you all know who Kenjon Barner is. Tight end David Paulson? Freshman Colt Lyerla caught five touchdown passes this season. Lose two offensive linemen? Junior Ryan Clanton and freshman Jake Fisher have seen plenty of action. Lose two linebackers? Kiko Alonso has started five games and Boseko Lokombo has played a lot. Cornerback Anthony Gildon out the door? Redshirt freshman Troy Hill has started five games while Gildon has been hurt (and is doubtful for the Rose Bowl).

Further, the Ducks have some redshirt freshmen on both sides of the ball -- particularly at linebacker and receiver -- who figure to make an impact next year. Receivers Devon Blackmon, Tacoi Sumler and B.J. Kelley were highly touted 2011 signees, who could bolster the Ducks passing game.

If you were connecting the dots, you'd actually project the Ducks to be better in 2012 than their 2011, 11-2, Pac-12 champion selves.

And, even with the loss of Thomas after next season, the Ducks appear to set up nicely for 2013. And beyond.

I know. I know. Fans of those 11 other Pac-12 teams are jumping up and down and waving their arms, bellowing, "What about Willie Lyles and the NCAA?"

True, major NCAA sanctions would seem the mostly likely way the Ducks get knocked from their ascent to the nation's elite. And it could happen. You never know with the NCAA.

But the more I talk to people who make educated guesses on NCAA investigations, not to mention a few who have specific knowledge of the NCAA's inquiry into the Ducks, the more I'm leaning toward the position that the NCAA will not pound Oregon. I suspect sanctions will fall short of what Ohio State recently received.

Of course, I thought USC would receive less severe penalties than Alabama received in 2002, so I've also learned to not expect the NCAA to be logical and fair.

The point is this: If you are wondering what Oregon is likely to be doing in, say, 2014, my projection is they still will be annoying 11 other teams.

The Ducks aren't going to go away.

We are about to type that Oregon State coach Mike Riley is on the hot seat. It feels strange, but it is true. And that tells you a lot about being a college coach in an automatic qualifying conference.

Life is good, until it isn't. You make millions, but the put-up or get-out window has been reduced from five to three-to-four years. You win, win, win, win, lose, lose, and you're on the hot seat. Way it goes.

So where do the Pac-12 coaches stand as we head into the bowl season?

Glad you asked (And, obviously, winning or losing a bowl game would affect these rankings).

We're going from most secure to least, and let's start with the three new guys (Arizona State isn't in this because it doesn't have a coach yet).

New hires

1. Mike Leach, Washington State: There seem to be exactly zero people who think Leach is a bad hire. The reaction in Pullman could be described as euphoric, but that sells it short. Still, there is pressure that comes with euphoria -- see that old "too high or too low" syndrome. Folks expect him to work miracles. To me, 6-6 or 7-5 would be a successful 2012 season. Get the feeling some Cougs expect to immediately take down Oregon.

2. Rich Rodriguez, Arizona: Folks in Tucson are reasonably juiced. Rich Rod is a heck of an offensive coach, and he's highly motivated to make sure folks see his ill-fated tenure at Michigan as an aberration. A lot of things are in place for Rodriguez to get the Wildcats back to a bowl game in year one. But, again, high expectations mean a 7-5 record -- a three-game turnaround -- might be met with a, "Meh. Stoops did that."

3. Jim Mora, UCLA: Mora's hiring hasn't been celebrated. In fact, it's been met with negative reaction among Bruins fans as well as the national media. Much of that reflects a lack of confidence in athletic director Dan Guerrero, but the negativity certainly won't help get the football program back on its feet. For Mora, he needs to understand the environment, remain pleasant and work his butt off to change it.

Returning coaches

1. Chip Kelly, Oregon: Kelly has won three consecutive conference titles and played for a national title. If he wins the Rose Bowl against Wisconsin, he'll officially become the King of Eugene. The NCAA and Willie Lyles? We shall see, but we leave you with our word of the day: Teflon.

2. Kyle Whittingham, Utah: Seven years, seven winning records. His Utes nearly won that Pac-12 South Division without their starting QB. Sure, there jury is still out on whether the Utes can regularly win nine or 10 games in the Pac-12. But this jury looks favorably on it happening as long as Whittingham is around.

3. David Shaw, Stanford: You can write off an 11-1 year one as being brought to him by Lucky No. 12, but there was plenty of pressure on Shaw to win this year and he delivered. It seems almost certain the program will need to regroup next fall, and the measure will become truer thereafter. But Shaw is a Stanford man who is well-liked, and that will buy him more time than someone who is neither.

4. Lane Kiffin, USC: A 10-2 finish couldn't have come at a better time. It proved Kiffin can coach, and it seems there is a solid amount of sober realism around the program about what losing 30 scholarships over the next three seasons is going to mean. There will be some patience -- not a lot but some -- as sanctions tighten the screws. Further, Kiffin can help himself by continuing to be his new, mature and often surprisingly gracious self.

5. Steve Sarkisian, Washington: The Huskies took a step forward in 2011, as they did Sarkisian's first two seasons. Not a huge step but a notable one. Still, Huskies fans are eager to get back into the top-25 and the Pac-12 race. And they don't like seeing Oregon on top. Nine or 10 wins in 2012 will be the best way to keep the natives from showing any signs of restlessness.

6. Jeff Tedford, California: Tedford is actually in far better position now than he was on Oct. 29 after a bad loss to UCLA. And if the Bears beat Texas in the Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl, there will be considerable offseason momentum. Cal looks like a potential factor in the 2012 North Division race, and playing in a renovated Memorial Stadium also will juice the fans. That said: A losing season -- or perhaps even a 6-6 one -- next fall would make his seat toasty.

7. Jon Embree, Colorado: A 3-10 finish doesn't make anyone happy, but it's best to post a 3-10 finish for your first season as a head coach. The reason Embree isn't on the bottom here is because it's unlikely, barring a complete collapse, that a bad 2012 season will get him fired. For one, the Buffs look to be mired in a rebuilding mode. It's possible next year's team will be worse than this year's, seeing they lose many of their best players.

8. Mike Riley, Oregon State: After the 2009 season, Riley was at or at least near the top of this list. But consecutive losing seasons, including a 3-9 faceplant this fall, have some Beavers fans believing they should and can do better. Oregon State has some young talent, and a return to a bowl game seems like a perfectly reasonable expectation in 2012. Another losing season, however, could put Riley's once-secure job status in jeopardy.

If reading a series of factoids about how great Oregon is annoys you, might we suggest you skip over the bullet points that follow?

• If Oregon beats UCLA on Friday, it will win its third consecutive Pac-10/12 championship. USC (2004-06) is the only Pac-12 school to accomplish that feat since the conference expanded to 10 teams in 1978.
• The Ducks have recorded four consecutive seasons with double-digit victories. Before this run, they had three in program history -- and they all happened over the past 12 years.
• The Ducks have 42 wins since the start of 2008, which is the most in a four-year period in school history. Last year, Oregon set a school record for wins at 12.
• Oregon coach Chip Kelly has led the Ducks to more wins (32) in his first three seasons than any coach in conference history.
• Kelly is 32-6 overall and 25-2 in Pac-12 play. His .926 percentage in conference play is the best in conference history.

And we'd like to announce that Oregon is very likely to win 10 games again in 2012 and will be the overwhelming favorite to win a fourth consecutive conference title, unless a couple of guys at USC decided to wait another year before entering the NFL draft.

Hold your thumb and forefinger an inch apart. That represents the distance Oregon has to travel to become a legitimate Pac-12 dynasty.

Of course, the NCAA looms over the program due to L'Affaire de Willie Lyles. Oregon has yet to receive its notice of allegations that contains specific alleged rules infractions, but it received official notification of an investigation in September, so it's only a matter of time. That could lead to a slap on the wrist. Or a haymaker that knocks the program out, at least for a bit.

But that's off-the-field stuff. Let's cast our gaze on the field. There is, after all, a space between your thumb and forefinger that needs explaining.

The only element that eludes Oregon under Kelly is a BCS bowl victory -- a signature win to complete a season. It lost the Rose Bowl to Ohio State after the 2010 season. It lost the national title game to Auburn after the 2011 season.

While those were both highly competitive games, they are most remembered by fans not wearing green -- or whatever color Oregon is wearing at the moment -- for the Ducks' high-powered offense getting stymied. You know, that whole "you give a good defense more than a week to prepare and it can stop Kelly's tricky spread-option."

We're about to make an assertion that some Ducks fans will disagree with (now there's something that never happens): It's a good thing Oregon isn't getting a rematch with LSU in the national title game.

I would not pick any team in the nation to beat LSU. Not Oregon, not anyone. To be honest, I wouldn't pick Oregon to beat Alabama, either.

At this point, I would pick the Ducks to beat either Wisconsin or Michigan State in the Rose Bowl (I suspect they'd pound the Spartans; Wisconsin would be a much tougher test). And Oregon needs a victory in a BCS bowl game to earn national validation.

There is no question Oregon has owned the conference for three years. And, by owning the conference, the Ducks get ownership of all the nice nonconference wins Pac-12 teams have posted during that span. But Oregon doesn't have a marquee nonconference win under Kelly, bowl game or otherwise. Of his six losses, two came in conference play (Stanford, 2009; USC, 2011) and the other four were against highly ranked nonconference foes (Boise State, Ohio State, Auburn and LSU).

That's where the Rose Bowl comes in. Beating Wisconsin or Michigan State would give the Ducks a nice season-ending victory that would give them a national uptick heading into 2012.

Losing to LSU, no matter that every other team would do the same, would provide another negative example for those who don't perceive the Ducks as being truly elite. Remember: This is college football. Without a playoff, perception is only slightly less important than win-loss record (see how it at present is benefiting Alabama).

Of course, losing the Rose Bowl would have an even worse effect, one that could trickle down within the Pac-12. It could be the difference between a 2012 preseason No. 5 ranking and a No. 10 one. And, yes, that matters if your goal is to play for a national title.

Ergo: Oregon needs a BCS bowl win. That is a critical next step for the program.

Would that prove dynastic arrival? At the Pac-12 level, it's already there. As a perennial top-10 team, it would, too.

But there is one more step, though. Winning a BCS bowl would set a course, but the ultimate destination is to be standing amid confetti with a big smile in a loud uniform holding that gaudy crystal football after the final BCS bowl game is complete.