Thursday, April 10, 2014
Big Blue Morning: A 1-in-40 chance
By Dan Graziano ESPN.com
Our man Dave Tuley lists the Vegas odds of every NFL team to win next year's Super Bowl, and the New York Giants come in at 40-1. There are 15 teams listed ahead of the Giants (i.e., with better odds) and 16 with the same odds or worse.
The 40-1 odds are the same as the ones the Giants had on Feb. 2, long before they turned over more than a quarter of their roster in free agency. So this indicates to me that the oddsmakers feel the Giants' changes don't affect (a) their chances to win the Super Bowl or (b) more likely, the willingness of people to bet on those chances.
A 40-1 shot is probably a good price for the Giants, as the price will tempt some to put down a bet if only because the Giants are perceived by the general public as one of the teams that can win Super Bowls. But coming off a 7-9 season and with as many question marks as they still have, I can't advocate a lower number at this point.
Fans are surely going to take issue with the fact that the Giants' odds are the same as the Redskins' odds and that they're worse than the Cowboys' 30-1 odds. That reflects a general perception of the NFC East, a division that hasn't had an 11-game winner or sent more than one team to the playoffs since 2009. Even the favored Eagles are only a 30-1 shot to win their first Super Bowl at this stage. Based on the way the division has turned out for the past four years, it's fair not to expect that the Super Bowl champion would come from the NFC East. However, in one of those last four years, as Giants fans know, it did.
So if you feel better about the Giants' chances than Vegas does... well, you know what to do, don't you?