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The number-crunching minds of Hockey Prospectus produced an article Wednesday (Insider) that seems to indicate that New York Rangers owner James Dolan may want to pump his brakes before he starts claiming the Cup is within the Blueshirts' grasp.

Author Rob Vollman produced a list of four teams whose success seems unsustainable given their past production levels. The team at the top of the list? Your New York Rangers.

Vollman cites higher-than-usual shooting percentages from several Rangers snipers -- including Brad Richards -- a statistic that tends to regress toward a player's career average over the course of a season. Additionally, the author notes puck-possession problems and the over-the-moon seasons of Henrik Lundqvist and Martin Biron, which are likely to come back to Earth during the second half.

Defensively, the Rangers are being boosted by Henrik Lundqvist's absurd .937 save percentage -- 14 points higher than his already impressive career high. He's also stopped almost 91 percent of shots while down a man. Unless he's this season's Tim Thomas, the Rangers will have a tougher second half when he and backup Martin Biron, who is also setting a career high, begin to regress from .935 to last season's more typical .922.

Vollman still projects a 104-point season for coach John Tortorella's team, which would certainly keep the Blueshirts in the conversation for the East's top seed. Still, it raises an interesting question about what the Rangers might be missing that could push them over the top.

According to CapGeek, the Rangers should have just under $5.5 million in cap space come the trade deadline. If GM Glen Sather were to make a move, how would that space best be spent? A few possibilities based on Vollman's article:

Defense

The Rangers' black-and-blue line has been battered since Day 1 this season. Michael Sauer remains out with a concussion. Steve Eminger (shoulder) is just now getting back onto the ice. Jeff Woywitka (foot) is still sporting a non-contact jersey in practice. And if Sidney Crosby has taught us anything, it's that a relapse by the post-concussed Marc Staal wouldn't be a total shock. The Canucks may have boasted the deepest D corps of any team in the NHL last season, and their run to the Cup was crushed by injuries to their back line. Adding an affordable high-end veteran (Tim Gleason, who is approaching free agency with last-place Carolina) or an affordable youngster in the doghouse who is signed beyond this season (Jeff Schultz in D.C.) could be a good investment.

Scoring

New York is third in the NHL in scoring differential but is averaging just 2.8 goals per game. What's that mean? Well, it means that Vollman may be on to something when he suggests that Lundqvist and Biron are the difference between a very good team and an elite Cup contender. To that end, the Rangers may want to add a little bit of cushioning to their scoring margin if the netminders shed their Superman capes in the second half. According to ESPN's Rumor Central, Buffalo could be looking for a shake-up, and (this is just speculation now) may be inclined to ditch underperforming forward Brad Boyes for cheap. In the three seasons prior to this one, Boyes has averaged 55-plus points. He's seen his ice time seriously shrink in Buffalo and could be one of those players who benefits from a change in scenery.

Again, a caution that those names are just based on circumstances that make me think they could be dealt and could help the Blueshirts. It's by no means an exhaustive list. In fact, what are your thoughts on late-season additions you'd like to see?

As you’ve no doubt read by now, the Islanders dealt D James Wisniewski to the Montreal Canadiens for a second-round pick in this coming draft and a conditional fifth-rounder the following year.

The move has some Islander fans frustrated that this season's top defenseman -- who was also tied for the team lead in points -- was being shipped out, in December, for more draft picks. Yes, it’s yet another step in a seemingly never-ending rebuilding project, but everyone knows the Islanders aren’t going anywhere in 2010-11, so adding chips for the future makes sense. You can’t fault GM Garth Snow and the Islanders for that.

You can, however, fault the team for getting less than top value for one of their most coveted trade assets. And it certainly appears the Islanders sold a little low on Wisniewski.

The value of any tradeable asset is always relative to the market and already this season we’ve seen one team trade for an established blueliner, with the Washington Capitals acquiring D Scott Hannan from the Colorado Avalanche. In return for the veteran stay-at-home blueliner the Avs received Tomas Fleischmann one of the top young talents on the Caps’ roster (51 points in 69 games in 2009-10). That’s an NHL-ready contributor who has been a point-per-game player in his 12 games with Colorado.

As their career stats indicate, by any points-based comparison Wisniewski (.41 points per game in 286 games) is a better asset than Hannan (.23 ppg in 788 games). And Wisniewski seems to be flourishing with all of the power play time he’s received, already posting a career-best in the power-play points department. Such offensive skills have traditionally improved the value of a player on the trade market, so maybe Wisniewski's defensive shortcomings sapped his stock.

Defensive metrics are tricky to pin down and seldom tell an accurate story, but Wisniewski’s +/- was a very suspect minus-18. Pretty wretched. But considering he spent 70 more minutes on the ice than the next closest Islander and his team allowed 3.3 goals per game, while scoring just 2.3, that’s not as terrible as it could be. There are four other skaters and a goalie out there with him after all. For his career, Wisniewski’s +/- stands at plus-1, a figure that stood at plus-19 before he joined the Islanders.

Both Wisniewski and Hannan have contracts expiring after this season (as does Fleishmann’s) but Wisniewski is younger and any team acquiring him will have extra time to ink him to an extension, if they so choose (and with injured D Andrei Markov approaching free agency as well, that makes some sense for the Habs).

Compared to the Hannan trade it sure seems like the Isles got the short end of the deal, but that’s just one example. Take it back to last season’s trade deadline and the picture doesn’t get much better.

Last season, the Isles’ Andy Sutton was dealt for a second-rounder. And while the Islanders may have thought they’d stick to that price range for their top tradeable D commodity this season, it seems the Isles undersold last season as well. Other D-men switching teams at the trade deadline included Joe Corvo and Lubomir Visnovsky. Corvo netted Brian Pothier, a prospect and a pick from the Caps, while Visnovsky (and a sixth-rounder) returned Ryan Whitney.

While the Isles acquired Wisniewski for a conditional third-round pick in July, it certainly seems that D-men of Wisniewski’s caliber have yielded NHL-ready contributors in the recent past, which is obviously more than the Islanders received for him yesterday. But a rebuilding team doesn’t necessarily want talent ready to contribute immediately, more or less a pending free agent like Fleischmann, so draft picks make sense. But it’s tough to draw a conclusion until we know the value of a second-round pick. So exactly what is a second-round pick worth?

Last season, Alvin Chang of ESPN’s NHL Draft Blog studied that topic after we noticed second-rounders were common coin at the trade deadline.

While the Draft Blog is part of ESPN’s Insider package and you may not be able to see it in full, he found that since 1996 second-round picks have a 59-percent chance of reaching the NHL and a 25.8-percent chance of playing more than 82 games. Fifth-rounders? A 9.9-percent chance of playing 82 games in the league.

Draft picks are all well and good for rebuilding teams, but the Islanders essentially just traded their biggest chip for two lotto tickets with a 1-in-4 and 1-in-10 chance of winning a player that might give them equal production to Wisniewski. On average since 1996, defensemen taken in the second round average 20.9 points per season, forwards 31.9. Both totals are lower than what Wisniewski puts up on an annual basis. The Islanders would have to hit on both picks in order to better his production levels.

GMs have their own math for how they value picks, and I’m no GM, but from our math, this deal doesn’t add up for the Islanders.

The New Jersey Devils finally made a significant move to address their point-starved, cap-crunched roster, placing veteran forward Brian Rolston on waivers Tuesday. And given the reaction of GM Lou Lamoriello, it was not a move he at all wanted to make.

Per Tom Gulitti's Fire and Ice blog, Lamoriello stated the move was necessitated by the financial shackles that have constrained the team since the signing of Ilya Kovalchuk this summer. Neither Rolston's play (four points in 15 games this season) nor his attitude contributed to the decision, according to the GM.

“There is no better person in the room, no one with a more positive attitude,” Lamoriello said. “That’s what makes decisions like this so difficult. But I have to make some decisions. I can’t justify the payroll where we’re at with the results we’ve had and this is one of the decisions.”

With a season and a half remaining on a contract that pays him a little over $5 million per season (according to CapGeek.com), it seems doubtful that any team will claim him at full price. If that's the case, Lamoriello said that Rolston will play with the team Wednesday against Phoenix. However, once Rolston clears waivers, the team will have the option of placing him in the minors and relieve themselves of his $5M cap hit, a huge windfall for a team that has been flush against the cap ceiling all season long. (I forgot Rolston's contract is a 35+ deal, meaning the Devs won't lose his cap hit even in the minors. Thanks to E.J. Hradek for the quick correction.)

The threat of playing in the minors, from which Rolston may never emerge given his albatross-like contract, may help convince the forward to waive his no-trade clause though, allowing Lamoriello to get some kind of return for him. I wouldn't be surprised to hear Rolston's name floated in a few trade rumors in the next few days. If he's placed on re-entry waivers, teams will be able to claim him for half-price and the Devils will have to pay the other half of his salary. And for what it's worth, the estimable Hradek believes the Devils wouldn't even hint at sending Rolston to Albany, as treating a well-liked vet in such a way could hurt them with future free-agent signings.

A day after post-game comments from captain Jamie Langenbrunner fueled rumors of a possible coaching change or roster shake-up, Devils GM Lou Lamoriello threw some cold water on such speculation Wednesday.

As reported by the media, including the Star-Ledger's Rich Chere and the Record's Tom Gulitti, Lamoriello stated that the team is "staying the course" despite early-season struggles that have put a potential playoff berth in serious jeopardy. Perhaps in an attempt to alleviate some of the pressure surrounding the team, Lamoriello stepped into the crosshairs himself:

"Right now for anyone to focus in on one aspect, they can focus in on me. I take responsibility for where we're at right now. And it's going to be my responsibility for me to do everything I can to try and get us on the right path."

As reported on Fire and Ice, it's unclear what Lamoriello is willing to do to get his team back on track:

“We’re staying on our course,” Lamoriello said. “You can take that and go whatever way you want to go. We’re here today every one of us. This is our team. Right now what we have to do is look at today. Look at what we can do today to get better and prepared to play against Ottawa. As far as anything else, to me, it’s all speculation.”

The GM went on to say that he didn't feel you could place the blame for the team's poor play on any single aspect, otherwise it would have been addressed all ready. It seems clear that Lamoriello is giving MacLean as much slack as possible at this point, possibly believing lies with an inflexible roster hamstrung by salary-cap issues. Considering the Devils still have not many any trades to clear cap space, it's a safe assumption the market has not picked up for any of the team's tradeable commodities (Dainius Zubrus et al).

Unfortunately for MacLean, he remains the easiest component to change. Even with public support from Lamoriello, speculation about his job status is certain to keep swirling unless the Devils can get back to winning consistently.

The Devils are another day closer to their day of roster reckoning, and even as Lou Lamoriello addressed the topic with the media yesterday, he is still silent as to the team’s ultimate intentions.

According to Tom Gulitti’s Fire and Ice blog, the Devils GM did not answer questions yesterday as to whether ownership was comfortable with paying significant money to an NHL veteran in order to keep them in the AHL. He likewise declined to say if he had asked any of his players to waive their no-trade or no-movement clauses.

Lamoriello did speak on the weight of the decisions ahead, and the factors that make such choices particularly hard.

“First of all, you know the respect I have for the players and their families,” Lamoriello said. “It’s a combination of not only the player, but his personal life. Anyone who is not affected by that shouldn’t be in this business. And the day that it doesn’t bother you when you have to make those decisions you should get out on your own. But you also have a responsibility and we all know what those responsibilities are. Tough decisions have to be made and, unfortunately, they’re not going to be liked by everybody. But (they’re never made) without the sensitivity what it does to families.”

It’s expected, though not certain, that D Bryce Salvador will join Anssi Salmella and start the season on long term injured reserve, allowing the Devils a cap overage in the amount of the average yearly salaries of those two players (roughly $3.5 million). That leaves the Devils shorthanded in the personnel department however, with just 11 forwards for Friday's opener. While a roster of that size could buy the team some time, it seems unlikely that’s a workable solution over the 82-game, injury-filled grind of an NHL season.

It seems more likely that someone on the current roster will be either waived or traded, and one or more of the several players sent down yesterday (Mattias Tedenby and Jacob Josefson among them) will be recalled before the start of the season.

Morning Links

• The team site wonders if the “ZIP” line of Travis Zajac, Ilya Kovalchuk and Zach Parise could produce the first 50-goal, 100-point scorer in Devils history. Kovalchuk has topped the 50-goal plateau twice, but never 100 points. And for the record, I still prefer "The Money Line" handle for this trio.
• In Lou We Trust analyzes yesterday’s roster cuts.
• The Post wonders if the Devils will gamble on a 20-man roster.
• Mark Everson previously noted that the waiting game is weighing on the players.
• The Star-Ledger writes about the Parise’s take on the Kovalchuk acquisition.

While the hockey world waits for the NHL’s verdict on the re-submitted contract for LW Ilya Kovalchuk, the New York Post wonders who goes if Kovalchuk stays. The Dallas Stars are thought to be a possible destination for D Bryce Salvador, with Dainius Zubrus – a target we looked at a little Friday – also mentioned. Other possibilities are far more complicated given no-trade-clauses in their contracts, but one name may cause the faithful to groan at the continually rising cost to keep the Russian sniper.

According to a new blog post from the Post early this morning, C Travis Zajac is rumored to be on the trading block should Kovalchulk’s deal be approved. The center makes $3.89 million per season, which would help solve the Devils’ salary cap concerns, but he also put up 67 points last year as the team’s top pivot.

On one hand, trading Zajac would be a serious hit to this team, as newly acquired C Jason Arnottwould inherit top-line duties and the Devils would likely have to promote their second-line center from within the organization. On the other, the trade market for Zajac would be far more lucrative than for either Salvador or Zubrus, meaning GM Lou Lamoriello could earn some decent low-salary pieces for the future (prospects, draft picks) in return. The Washington Capitals have been searching for a second-line center all summer and would almost certainly be interested in Zajac. The Caps also have one of the deepest farm systems in hockey and could send the Devs some solid value.

But even then it's far from an ideal solution. There is a thought that centers and defensemen are the building blocks of Stanley Cup champions in today’s NHL, with the elite blue line of the Detroit Red Wings (2008 champions) and Chicago Blackhawks (’10), and the three-deep center corps of the Pittsburgh Penguins (’09) often used as examples.

Should the Devils move Zajac, his most likely replacement is Swedish C Jacob Josefson (drafted 20th overall in 2009), ranked as the second-best prospect in New Jersey’s system (behind Mattias Tedenby).

Josefson spent last season playing in his native country (20 points in 43 regular-season games for Djurgardens), but inked an entry-level deal with the Devils in May. Thought to be a heady, two-way player capable of reaching the NHL this season, he may now play a far more pivotal role than expected.

Trading the 25-year-old Zajac just as he enters his prime is certainly not an appealing avenue for the Devils to pursue, but the team will have to do something to clear the necessary space, thought to be at least $3.07M.

The Post's speculation on Zajac is only attributed to rumors, and it's doubtful he's the team's top trade option. But with so many players enjoying no-trade clauses in their contracts (Patrik Elias, Colin White, Brian Rolston, Jamie Langenbrunner and Johan Hedbergamong them), Zajac may not be as far from the top of the list as you might think.

Morning Links

• Lamoriello told Fire and Ice he feels confident about the contract and that it will be approved by the NHL. We could hear as early as today. Wednesday is deadline day. Also, one small detail has emerged: The first year of Kovalchuk’s contract pays $6M.
• In Lou We Trust wonders when Mike Mottau will be signed.