The price has been right at Aqueduct
February, 13, 2012
Feb 13
2:13
PM ET
By Bob Ehalt | ESPNNewYork.com
As a new era continues to unfold for the New York Racing Association, there are several ways to view the impact of the purse enhancements stemming from casino revenue.
Field size can be analyzed and a list of new horsemen can be rattled off, yet for handicappers the key question is simply whether NYRA races now offer better wagering opportunities, a.k.a. value.
That’s a difficult question to answer, since one man’s wagering gold mine might be another’s clunker. Yet a personal review of NYRA’s races since Jan. 1 reveals some positive signs of why a trip to Aqueduct has provided a much better deal than last winter -- and we’re not just talking about the buffet at the Resorts World Casino.
From Jan. 1 through Feb. 10, there have been 28 NYRA cards with 245 races whose cumulative win payoff was $3,050.80.
Meanwhile, the first 28 cards in 2011 featured 243 races with a combined payoff of $2,441.40.
Do the math and the average 2012 winner has been paying $12.45 compared to $10.04 in 2011, a difference that many handicappers may already be seeing in their wallet.
While a huge longshot, like Princess Reyana ($128.50 on Feb. 5), can skewer the results, a price that big does reflect some size and depth in a field which handicappers should relish.
Beyond that, though, there are some other encouraging signs tied to those payoffs. So far, there have been 29 horses that paid $20 or more compared to just 19 a year ago, making handicapping a much more worthwhile proposition.
Now that’s not to say there has not been a steady stream of odds-on winners as well. A year ago there were 51 winners that paid $4 or less and there have been 55 in 2012.
The increase in heavy chalk seems all together logical since the higher purses can induce a trainer to run a horse more often when it is in top form. Trainers are also more willing to drop or keep a sharp horse at the same claiming level because of the bigger purses.
But put it all together and it does paint an encouraging sign for both now and what awaits in the spring when the bigger outfits roll back into town. While there have been some awful races that would have a Belmont or a Whitney rolling in their grave, this winter has at least produced more races that a handicapper can attack in hopes of coming away with something more than a $3.60 winner and an $8.20 exacta.
It’s surely not Saratoga, but for February in the Big Apple it’s not bad. Not bad at all.
Field size can be analyzed and a list of new horsemen can be rattled off, yet for handicappers the key question is simply whether NYRA races now offer better wagering opportunities, a.k.a. value.
That’s a difficult question to answer, since one man’s wagering gold mine might be another’s clunker. Yet a personal review of NYRA’s races since Jan. 1 reveals some positive signs of why a trip to Aqueduct has provided a much better deal than last winter -- and we’re not just talking about the buffet at the Resorts World Casino.
From Jan. 1 through Feb. 10, there have been 28 NYRA cards with 245 races whose cumulative win payoff was $3,050.80.
Meanwhile, the first 28 cards in 2011 featured 243 races with a combined payoff of $2,441.40.
Do the math and the average 2012 winner has been paying $12.45 compared to $10.04 in 2011, a difference that many handicappers may already be seeing in their wallet.
While a huge longshot, like Princess Reyana ($128.50 on Feb. 5), can skewer the results, a price that big does reflect some size and depth in a field which handicappers should relish.
Beyond that, though, there are some other encouraging signs tied to those payoffs. So far, there have been 29 horses that paid $20 or more compared to just 19 a year ago, making handicapping a much more worthwhile proposition.
Now that’s not to say there has not been a steady stream of odds-on winners as well. A year ago there were 51 winners that paid $4 or less and there have been 55 in 2012.
The increase in heavy chalk seems all together logical since the higher purses can induce a trainer to run a horse more often when it is in top form. Trainers are also more willing to drop or keep a sharp horse at the same claiming level because of the bigger purses.
But put it all together and it does paint an encouraging sign for both now and what awaits in the spring when the bigger outfits roll back into town. While there have been some awful races that would have a Belmont or a Whitney rolling in their grave, this winter has at least produced more races that a handicapper can attack in hopes of coming away with something more than a $3.60 winner and an $8.20 exacta.
It’s surely not Saratoga, but for February in the Big Apple it’s not bad. Not bad at all.
ABOUT THIS BLOG
Bob Ehalt
Bob Ehalt, who grew up a few furlongs from Belmont Park, has followed horse racing as either a fan, turf writer or owner since 1971. He has won three national Associated Press Sports Editors awards for his coverage of the sport and was the recipient of the 2009 Breeders' Cup media award for outstanding social media.
Paul Moran
Paul Moran is a two-time winner of the Media Eclipse Award, and has received various honors from the National Association of Newspaper Editors, Society of Silurians, Long Island Press Club and Long Island Veterinary Medical Association. He also has been given the Red Smith Award for his coverage of the Kentucky Derby.
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