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Football Scientist: Coleman is a huge coverage risk

It is entirely understandable why the Jets would want to consider moving Kyle Wilson out of the lineup. It's not just that that his metrics are subpar -- he simply doesn't seem to have a feel for how to locate the ball when it is thrown to the receiver he is covering. This will take some practice to correct and OJT isn't the place to get that practice.

Having said that, moving Drew Coleman into the lineup could be a situation where the solution ends up being worse than the problem. I say this because Coleman's historical metrics are simply abysmal.

Let's use the 2009 campaign as the evidence. In that season, the Jets had four cornerbacks who ended up being listed as qualifiers in the season-ending cornerback metrics (25 attempts being the benchmark for qualification).

Three of these corners (Darrelle Revis, Dwight Lowery and Lito Sheppard) all posted yards per attempt (YPA) totals of six yards or less. That put each of them in the top 20 in the league in that category (and the Jets were the only team with three CBs in the top 20).

Coleman was the only Jet cornerback who didn't make it over that coverage bar. He ended up with an 8.0 YPA, a total that ranked tied for 66th.

He was also the worst NY cornerback on vertical routes (defined as aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield). His 9.7 vertical YPA was easily the worst on the team and ranked tied for 55th in the league.

Coleman was also the only Jets cornerback who allowed either a completion or a defensive penalty on a play more than 50% of the time.

The numbers are more than a bit of a concern but there is also the idea of what would happen if Buffalo were to get Lee Evans matched up on Coleman. Evans has been hamstrung by this offense but he is now paired back up with Ryan Fitzpatrick, a quarterback who won't hold back from throwing the deep pass the way Trent Edwards did. If the Jets give the Bills the Evans/Coleman matchup even just one time, Buffalo will go after it as quickly as they can.

Put it all together and this game could be a bigger coverage test than is generally thought.