Thursday, May 22, 2014
Stats guru: Jets will take step back in '14
By Rich Cimini
They finished last season on an upswing and added some big names in the offseason, but the New York Jets aren't getting much love from various prognosticators.
One Vegas sports book recently placed the Jets' over-under win total at seven, and now Alan Schatz of Football Outsiders -- an NFL analyst for ESPN -- forecasts six wins for them. Here's how Schatz, who uses analytics, sees the AFC East:
New England Patriots: 10-6 (10.0 mean wins, strength of schedule: 19)
Miami Dolphins: 7-9 (7.5 mean wins; SOS: 18)
Buffalo Bills: 7-9 (6.8 mean wins; SOS: 17)
New York Jets: 6-10 (6.3 mean wins; SOS: 11)
Schatz notes this isn't a final forecast for the season, as he still has plenty of number crunching to do, but here's what he says about the Jets in his post-draft evaluation:
"The Jets are another team whose projection may be too low because they don't fit the usual mold. While most defenses are inconsistent from year to year, the Jets' defense has been consistently strong since Rex Ryan took over as head coach. It will look even better in 2014 when their luck recovering fumbles regresses to the mean; they recovered only one of 13 defensive fumbles last year. Unfortunately for the Jets, their offense is just as consistent as their defense, and it's been consistently awful."
Why are people so down on the Jets? Is it justified? What do you think?