Top stats to know: The No. 11 pick


The Mets pick No. 11 in the 2013 MLB Draft tonight, so we offer up a list of five stats related to that selection.

1. From 1980 to 2008, there were 29 players selected No. 11 overall. Of those, 21 made the major leagues. That equates to a 72 percent reaching-the-majors rate.

For comparison, the No. 9 and No. 10 pick are 49-for-58 (84 percent) in that span. The No. 12 pick and No. 13 picks are a combined 39-for-58 (67 percent).

In all, that comes out to the ninth through 13th picks having about a 75 percent history of reaching the majors.

2. The last time the Mets had a pick in the top 11, they hit the jackpot, taking Matt Harvey with the No. 7 pick in the 2010 Draft. The time prior to that, they landed Mike Pelfrey with the No. 9 pick of the 2005 Draft.

In fact, the last seven times the Mets have had a Top-11 pick, they’ve taken a pitcher. Their last position-player selection in the top 11 was Preston Wilson (Mookie’s stepson) in 1992. Wilson would eventually net the Mets Mike Piazza in trade.

3. There is nothing predictive in this stat, it’s just an odd quirk: There have only been six players drafted No. 11 overall to record at least 10 Wins Above Replacement in their careers.

If you look at the history of the first 22 picks in the MLB Draft, the No. 11 pick ranks tied for the weakest in terms of 10-WAR players, and worst in terms of the average Wins Above Replacement for those players who did make the majors (4.4 WAR).

The best No. 11 pick in terms of overall production is Greg Luzinski (26.1 WAR), though he'll soon be replaced by Andrew McCutchen (21.3). The top pitcher is Max Scherzer (13.1 WAR)

4. Keith Law now has the Mets taking a college position player -- New Mexico 3B/1B D.J. Peterson -- with their first pick.

They’ve drafted 10 college position players with a first-round pick previously with mixed success. Their three most successful ones in terms of major-league production were Jeromy Burnitz (1990), Jay Payton (1994), and Hubie Brooks (1978).

5. The Mets have had different strategies in Sandy Alderson/Paul De Podesta’s first two drafts.

In 2011, their first two picks were high school players (Brandon Nimmo and Michael Fulmer), but seven of their next eight were four-year college players).

In 2012, the Mets went with more of an even split -- five high school players (including top pick Gavin Cecchini), four four-year college players, and one junior college player.

Multiple studies have gone over whether pursuing college players is better than drafting high school players (opinions vary), one of the most recent of which can be found here.