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Second half stat storylines: Dillon Gee

Five statistical storylines for Dillon Gee in the second half of the season.

Second chance at a second half

In 2011, the one season Gee was a yearlong major league pitcher, he struggled to the finish, posting a 5.25 ERA in his last 13 starts.

This first start out of the break is a notable one for Gee. A win would put him over .500 for the first time this season.

It’s also a chance to avenge a defeat against the Braves (on Freddie Freeman's walk-off homer) in his previous start against them.

Carryover

Gee’s 12-strikeout gem against the Yankees may have marked the turning point of his season. Gee’s ERA in that start and the eight that followed is 2.67, and the nine basically grade out as seven-good, two-bad.

Dillon Gee – 2013 Season

Gee’s strikeout-to-walk ratio is indicative of someone who should be pitching well. The one recent aberration has been that Gee has not allowed a homer on the 27 fly balls and 17 line drives hit against him in his past four starts.

Gee’s typical rate of yielding homers is at a rate of one for every 10 fly balls, so the numbers may catch up with him eventually.

Watch the changeup

The pitch that has been the big difference-maker in this stretch is his changeup, which is no longer floating up to the plate on a tee like it was earlier in the season.

Dillon Gee’s Changeup
2013 Season

The chart on the right shows the difference for Gee.

Gee’s changeup location is often telling of his game success. In the seven starts this season in which Gee has thrown at least 65 percent of his changeups in the lower third of the strike zone or below, he has a 2.20 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.

In the 12 starts that he has not, his ERA is 5.79, with a 1.59 WHIP

Start off right

Gee’s ability to throw first-pitch strikes has also been vital to his recent success.

In those first 10 starts, his first-pitch strike rate was 59 percent. It’s 67 percent in his past nine starts.

Why is that significant? Consider these splits:

Gee when up 0-1: .220 opponents’ batting average, .577 OPS

Gee when behind 1-0: .338 opponents’ batting average, .979 OPS

No innings ceiling

There doesn’t figure to be any issue managing Gee’s innings. He’s at 110 1/3 right now, with a career high of 190 combining his major and minor league totals in 2010.

The Mets will be watching Gee carefully though, considering his innings total has trended downward, at 160 2/3 in 2011 and 109 2/3 before the injury shelved him last season.