August's significant developMets

September, 1, 2010
9/01/10
9:00
AM ET

Andrew Burton/Getty Images
Ike Davis was among many Mets who had an August to forget.


I’ve done these pieces now to review May, June, and July previously, and I can tell you that the August version of this month-in-review feature was by far the most difficult one to write.

That’s because the Mets for the most part were a team that was statistically uninteresting. They tried to put on the face of a postseason contender, but did nothing to merit that billing in terms of their offense, which was mostly non-existent, and their decision-making, which left something to be desired.

But on we must plod, and we offer up the following evaluations for the month that will best be remembered for off-the-field struggles (see Francisco Rodriguez) than those on the diamond.

The Mets Never Went Streaking

The Mets did something rather remarkable in August. They played an entire calendar month without winning or losing more than two consecutive games.

The folks at Elias looked into this at our request and we found that such an unusual feat has precedent (doesn’t everything in Mets history?). The Mets have now had five such months in their 49 seasons

However three of those, including the most recent in 1982, occurred in April, and were in months in which baseball was shortened by at least six days, since Opening Day didn’t necessarily come at the very beginning of the month.

The most legit claim to a month of this nature would be September, 1968, in which the Mets went 10-13, without ever winning or losing more than two straight.

The Mets aren’t scoring

August marked only the third time in the last 20 seasons that the Mets had a calendar month in which they averaged fewer than three-runs-per-game. The other two: August of 1991, which marked the beginning of the end of the Mets run of success that spanned the previous seven seasons, and September, 2003, the end of a disastrous season in which little went right.

The Mets didn’t have a player reach the 10-RBI mark for the month this season until Angel Pagan did on August’s next-to-last day. They hit below .235 for the second straight month, finishing with a slashline of .233/.303/.329. At least they're not the 1963 Mets, who went sub-.235 in four straight months.

Any way you spin the numbers, they're pretty grim (we joked last week with someone that R.A. Dickey, now 4-for-12 with runners in scoring position this season, might be the most dangerous hitter on the team).

Most troubling is this: Inside Edge compiles a stat for major league teams called “well-hit average” which means exactly what it says—what percent of the time does the batter hit the ball “well.”

Admittedly, I’ve been a little skeptical of this stat, since it is based solely on human judgment, but decided to give it a run-through to see what it said about the Mets this past month.

The biggest takeaway I took from my “well-hit” lookups: David Wright and Ike Davis had very rough months.

We'll define a "loud out" as one in which a hitter gets credit for a "well-hit" ball from Inside Edge's scouts.

The average major leaguer makes a "loud out" about one of every 10 times he makes an out, and one out of every seven outs on balls that were hit into play.

As you'll see in the accompanying chart, both David Wright and Ike Davis were not anywhere close to those rates for the month, numbers far from their norms. Both hit the ball softly much more frequently than is needed out of hitters of their type.

Johan Santana got his strikeout touch back
Johan Santana had another one of those months—six starts, a 2-4 record, but with a very respectable 2.72 ERA. Among the other items of note:

- Santana matched his total for most strikeouts in a month as a Met (47 in September, 2008)

- He had 28 strikeouts with his changeup, matching the total he had in May, June, and July combined. This might have something to do with Santana increasing his changeup frequency, particularly with two strikes. In August, he had success with his two-strike changeup, so he threw it nearly half the time.

- Threw 18 two-strike sliders, with which he got eight strikeouts and allowed no hits, and only one ball put into play.

Mike Pelfrey may have figured it out

We’re not fully committed to the idea that Mike Pelfrey is back to the version we saw in April, considering that two of his better performances came against the Pirates and Astros, but we’re not covering our eyes when he pitches any more.

What jumped out at us the most? Much like with Santana, Pelfrey has gotten back to a more acceptable performance level with two strikes.

During the 10-start horrific stretch from June 13 to August 4 (in which Pelfrey had a 7.35 ERA and .394 opponents batting average), opponents hit .367 with two strikes. In other words, their batting average matched that of Ty Cobb’s storied career. That’s scary.

They also reached base 42 percent of the time, and two-strike slugged to the tune of a frightening .567. That’s right around what Larry Walker slugged for his career.

Something closer to normalcy reemerged in these last four outings, in which Pelfrey’s two-strike slashline is .214/.241/.321.

Key to that: Pelfrey’s splitter, one that he’s thrown less frequently with two-strikes, but more effectively. Pelfrey’s numbers with his splitter, seen in our accompanying chart, are much more a match for the good Pelf than the bad one.

Almost a milestone

Oliver Perez not withstanding, the Mets had a pretty good month from a pitching perspective and they came oh-so-close to a rather nice milestone.

Had the bullpen been able to finish the scoreless, work Pelfrey did in the first eight innings, the Mets would have had their fifth shutout of this calendar month.

Five is a big deal from a historical perspective in that the Mets have only done that twice since the 1986 season began—in May, 1988 and May, 1996.

Alas though, much like success in this month, it proved to be an unreachable achievement.

ESPN Conversations


You must be signed in to post a comment

Already have an account?

  • AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
    Looks like with Randy Niemann's departure to Red Sox, Guy Conti and Al Jackson are monitoring Johan Santana as he works out now in St. Lucie
    46 minutes ago     
  • AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
    Someone actually just created @BuddyAlderson (Sandy's dog). Not recommending you follow. Presume the dog is not really tweeting.
    51 minutes ago     
  • AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
    Trustee suing Fred Wilpon over Madoff Ponzi scheme filed response after defense asked expert witnesses' testimony be banned. Not riveting.
    53 minutes ago     
  • AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
    I just set up a column on TweetDeck to follow everything tweeted to Mr. Alderson's account.
    about an hour ago     
  • AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
    RT @MetsGM: We're driving to St. Lucie because our dog (Buddy) doesn’t like to fly. His complaint: Where I sit, no lights and no stews.
    about an hour ago     
  • AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
    Drugs of abuse, as MLB refers to them, require two positive tests for the 50-game ban. Steroids and you're out 1st test.
    about an hour ago     
  • AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
    You may recall another Mets minor league was suspended for a drug of abuse -- not a steroid -- late last year.
    about an hour ago     
  • AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
    ... a 50-game suspension after second violations of the Minor League Drug Prevention and Treatment Program for a drug of abuse."
    about an hour ago     
  • AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
    Two Mets minor leaguers suspended for drug use. MLB: "Charles “Dock” Doyle and right-handed pitcher Scott Moviel have each received ...
    about an hour ago     
  • AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
    Can't wait for Tweet No. 2. If it includes the word "chocolate," he ought to be elected into the Twitter Hall of Fame.
    about an hour ago     
  • AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
    Mets personnel verifies it is Sandy Alderson. At least, was "almost certain."
    about an hour ago     
  • AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
    And if it were a fake account--I don't think it is--at least it's funny. Most fake accounts are really, really unfunny.
    about 2 hours ago     
  • AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
    Unless someone hacked the Mets' official twitter account, that's Sandy Alderson. They promoted this account from the team account.
    about 2 hours ago     
  • AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
    RT @MetsGM: Getting ready for Spring Training-Driving to FL but haven’t left yet. Big fundraiser tonight for gas money. Also exploring P ...
    about 2 hours ago     
  • AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
    Sandy Alderson has a sense of humor. His first tweet ...
    about 2 hours ago     
  • AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
    RT @Collin_McHugh: I saw Dan Uggla at the field today. My forearms are still recovering from the shame they felt in his presence.
    about 4 hours ago     
  • AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
    Mark Simon is on a roll. Here's his look at R.A. Dickey's Gold Glove-caliber fielding skills: http://t.co/JEqT5YSr #mets
    about 5 hours ago     
  • AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
    Source confirms Citizen report Eastern League team moving to Ottawa for '13 season. Binghamton is in that league. More: http://t.co/Tohai4Zw
    about 6 hours ago     
  • AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
    ESPN statistical guru Mark Simon is bullish on Jon Niese for 2012. Here's his analytical look at the southpaw: http://t.co/I8itjqW6 #mets
    about 7 hours ago     
  • AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
    Here's another stab for Insiders at the link with the entire top 100: http://t.co/MjufYZaW
    about 7 hours ago     

TEAM LEADERS

BA LEADER
Jose Reyes
BA HR RBI R
.337 7 44 101
OTHER LEADERS
HRC. Beltran 15
RBIC. Beltran 66
RJ. Reyes 101
OPSJ. Reyes .877
WD. Gee 13
ERAR. Dickey 3.28
SOC. Capuano 168

NEW YORK CALENDAR

  •    There are no games scheduled for today.
  •    There are no games scheduled for today.
  •    There are no games scheduled for today.
  •    There are no games scheduled for today.
  •    There are no games scheduled for today.