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Tuesday, April 9, 2013
5-2 sounds nice, but means little

By Mark Simon

What does 5-2 mean for the Mets from a historical perspective?

The Mets have been 5-2 or better through seven games in 12 different seasons prior to this year.

In nine of those seasons, they posted a winning record. In five of them, they won 90 games or more. In three of them, they made the postseason.

Big deal, you may say. The Mets started 5-2 last season and where did it get them?

That’s certainly a fair point, so let’s throw one more wrinkle into this:

The Mets' ERA through seven games is 2.29, ninth-best in team history through that many games.

Of the five teams in Mets history that started 5-2 or better AND had an ERA of 2.29 or lower, all five had winning records. In fact, all five finished at least 10 games above .500.

But of course, it’s not hard to pour cold water on this one too.

In the previous two seasons, three teams have been 5-2 or better with a 2.29 ERA or lower through the first seven games.

The good was last year’s Nationals, who parlayed that into a 98-64 record and division title. The bad is the 2011 Orioles, who were 6-1 with a 2.00 ERA but finished 69-93. The in-between was last year’s Phillies, who finished 81-81.

In other words, the Mets' season still has plenty of time to go in any possible direction, from totally fantastic to dreadfully horrendous.