Monday, July 28, 2014
88 wins gets Mets into postseason?
By Adam Rubin
NEW YORK -- The Mets continue to portray themselves as in a postseason race. And with solid play of late, it's fun to believe.
The reality is the required win total would be a major uphill battle.
What record would the Mets need to post the remainder of the season to have a shot?
At a minimum, going 38-19 -- a .667 win percentage -- would seem to be required.
That would get the Mets to 88-74 for the season.
In terms of winning the NL East, the Mets (50-55) currently trail the first place Nationals (57-45) by 8 1/2 games. Washington's .559 win percentage is on pace for 91 wins for the season.
And 91 wins is a low figure for winning this division over the past decade. In 2013, the Braves captured the NL East with 96 wins. Going backward, the other NL East-winning totals from the past decade are 98, 102, 97, 93, 92, 89, 97, 90 and 96.
So what about the wild card?
The Braves and Giants have identical 57-48 records and would be the two wild-card teams if the season ended today. Their .543 win percentages translate to 88 wins.
So that's the bare minimum the Mets would likely have to achieve.
This is the third year of two wild-card teams in each league. In 2013, Cincinnati got the second wild card with 90 wins. In 2012, St. Louis got the second wild card at 88.
If you go back historically for the remainder of the past decade and pretend two wild-card teams got in, the second win total would be: 89, 90, 88, 89, 89, 85, 88, 91.