That is what scouts think about the Yankees' new No. 2.

Michael Pineda's fastball and slider are devastating, but Pineda still needs to refine the change-up. So get ready to hear a lot about Pineda's change next month in spring training. One scout said he'll basically be refining his pitches. He is only 23, after all.

This is why the Yankees are going to have to manage the expectations on Pineda. He is less proven than Phil Hughes. Like Hughes, he is still developing, but there is no telling what he is exactly. He does have better stuff than Hughes. Still, you could make an argument that Hughes will have a better year than Pineda in 2012.

Pineda will come in expected to be a No. 2, even if he lands in the third or fourth slot to start the year. He also will have to deal with being the guy traded for the legend of Jesus Montero. This is a lot for a guy who is not a finished product yet. He is a proven talent though, and, to paraphrase Reggie, talent usually wins.

So here is a question: What would you accept as far as win/losses and ERA from Pineda?