How would a team of '25 Cervellis' do?
January, 7, 2013
By Mark Simon | ESPNNewYork.com
USA TODAY Sports, AP PhotoSo Butch Wynegar would like to have 25 Francisco Cervellis on his team. We decided to have some fun and crunch the numbers.So Yankees Triple-A hitting coach (and former Bronx Bombers catcher) Butch Wynegar says he would take a roster full of Francisco Cervellis on his team any time. "I wish I had 25 Cervellis," Wynegar said of the Yankees' potential starting catcher for 2013.
We can’t necessarily tell you how a roster full of Cervellis would do -- he's not a pitcher, after all. But we can tell you how a lineup of Cervellis would fare at the major league level.
A few decades ago, the sabermetrician Bill James came up with a stat that he called “Offensive Winning Percentage.”
James used it to estimate how many runs a lineup of nine copies of a particular player would produce, given average pitching and average defense.
James incorporated all aspects of a player’s offensive performance (ability to hit, hit for power, draw walks, run the bases) to come up with the number, the calculation for which can be found here.
Baseball-Reference.com lists the offensive winning percentage for every season for every player.
In his 184-game Yankees career, Cervelli was credited with creating 60 runs and making 394 outs. That converts to 4.1 runs created per game.
In Cervelli’s time in the bigs, a team that scored 4.1 runs per game and had average pitching and defense would win about 43 percent of the time, or about 70 games in a 162-game season.
Cervelli’s numbers are hurt by his rough numbers in 42 games in 2009. Combine his 2010 and 2011 stats together and his team would win about 75 games.