Quantifying the Yankees starter struggles

August, 29, 2010
8/29/10
9:00
AM ET
Here's another way to quantify just how bad the Yankees starting rotation has been since the All-Star Break.



ESPN Stats and Information created a metric used on Baseball Tonight that calculates the chance each starter gives his team to win in any given start. For more information, here is the article that introduces the metric .

Using the average chance each starter gave the Yankees to win in his starts, we can see how the starting staff has deteriorated in the second half of the season.

Among their regular starters, only CC Sabathia is giving the Yankees a better than 50-50 chance to win since the All-Star Break.

Javier Vazquez's struggles in the second half can be seen in that he was only giving the Yankees about a 29 percent chance to win, based on his innings pitched/earned run combination. Among those who have made at least six second-half starts, Vazquez's average "win probability" ranks worst in the American League. (Note: Andy Pettitte's number is low because he only made the one second-half start, prior to getting hurt.

Ivan Nova has his second career start today after a promising debut, one in which he gave the Yankees a 56 percent chance to win.

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TEAM LEADERS

WINS LEADER
Masahiro Tanaka
WINS ERA SO IP
13 2.77 141 136
OTHER LEADERS
BAJ. Ellsbury .271
HRB. McCann 23
RBIB. McCann 75
RB. Gardner 87
OPSB. Gardner .749
ERAH. Kuroda 3.71
SOH. Kuroda 146