How improbable was the Game 1 win?

October, 17, 2010
10/17/10
9:00
AM ET

Matthew Emmons/US Presswire
The Yankees Game 1 comeback win rates among the best in recent memory, though the list of memorable ones is quite long.

I want to revisit Game 1 of the ALCS here, because it's more fun than analyzing the third-worst postseason start in Yankees history (via Game Score, thank you Phil Hughes).

Friday's Yankees win brought to mind a question that I couldn’t answer fully without a little work.

Within the current iteration of the Yankees “dynasty” (ie: since 1995), what are their very, very, very best postseason comeback wins?

There’s a way to answer this statistically if we wish, as multiple resources (the Elias Sports Bureau, Baseball-Reference.com, and others) have the ability to figure the win probability for every possible situation.

What does that mean?

That means it looks at every situation within a baseball game and looks at how often the average team won a game when it was placed in that situation.

For example, when the Yankees trailed 5-0 after six innings of Game 1, statisticians have determined that teams win about three percent of the time –- three times out of every 100 games a team is in that situation.

So with that in mind, I went through every Yankees postseason game dating back to 1995 on Baseball-Reference, which lists win probabilities for every situation (its numbers are in general agreement with other sources).

When you do this by hand, there’s a slim chance you may miss one, but I think I found what I was looking for.

That would be that there were 10, yes 10 postseason games that the Yankees have won since 1995 in which their win probability was 10 percent or lower.

Chances are you know ALL of these games, so I’m not going to overwhelm you with description. I’ll just provide a brief listing in order of likelihood of victory.

1996 World Series Game 4 -- Yankees 7, Braves 6 (10)
How'd they win? Jim Leyritz tied the game with a three-run home run in the eighth inning and the Yankees won in 10 innings on a bases-loaded walk by Wade Boggs.

How improbable? This one is the best of the lot. After the Braves took a 6-0 lead on Andruw Jones fifth-inning double, the Yankees chances of winning were a mere two percent.

2010 ALCS Game 1 – Yankees 6, Rangers 5
How’d they win? They rallied from 5-0 down, and a 5-1 deficit in the eighth inning.

How improbable? The Yankees had a three percent chance of winning, down 5-0 after six innings.

2004 ALDS Game 4 -- Yankees 6, Twins 5
How'd they win? They rallied from 5-1 down in the eighth inning, with four in the eighth and a run in the 11th on a wild pitch.

How improbable? The Yankees had a three percent chance of winning trailing 5-1 as the Twins batted in the bottom of the seventh.

2001 World Series Game 4 and 5 -- Yankees 4, Diamondbacks 3 (10)
Yankees 3, Diamondbacks 2 (12)

How'd they win? They tied the game on consecutive nights on two-run, two-out home runs by Tino Martinez and Scott Brosius, won it on a home run by Derek Jeter and a base hit by Alfonso Soriano.

How improbable? In both instances, the Yankees had a five percent shot, down two runs with two outs in the ninth inning, right around when mystique and aura took over.

2003 ALCS Game 7 -- Yankees 6, Red Sox 5 (11)
How'd they win? They tied it with three in the eighth off Pedro Martinez, won on Aaron Boone's walk-off home run.

How improbable? It probably felt like less than what it actually was, a six percent chance of winning with one out and none on down three in the bottom of the eighth.

2009 ALDS Game 2 –- Yankees 4, Twins 3 (11)
How’d they win? Alex Rodriguez hit a two-run homer to tie in the ninth. Mark Teixeira hit a walk-off homer to win in the 11th.

How improbable? With the Yankees down 3-1 after eight innings, they had an eight percent chance of winning.

1997 ALDS Game 1 -- Yankees 8, Indians 6
How'd they win? Consecutive home runs by Tim Raines, Derek Jeter, and Paul O'Neill in thew sixth inning helped the Yankees overcome a five-run deficit.

How improbable? The Indians had a 5-0 lead after one inning and were up 6-1 and threatening for more in the fourth inning when Manny Ramirez came to the plate against Ramiro Mendoza. The Yankees chances of winning were eight percent at that point, upped slightly when Mendoza coaxed an inning-ending double play.

1998 World Series Game 3 -- Yankees 5, Padres 4
How'd they win? Scott Brosius hit a go-ahead three-run home run in the eighth inning against Padres closer Trevor Hoffman capping a late comeback from three runs down.

How improbable? Ken Caminiti's sixth-inning sacrifice fly upped the Padres lead to 3-0 and put the Yankees chances of winning at nine percent.

1999 World Series Game 3 -- Yankees 6, Braves 5 (10)
How'd they win? Chad Curtis hit his second home run of the game, this one a walk-off in the 10th inning.

How improbable?In the fifth inning, with the Yankees down 5-1, Curtis came to the plate with two outs and nobody on. At that point, the Yankees had a 10 percent chance to win. Curtis's first homer sparked the comeback.

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TEAM LEADERS

WINS LEADER
CC Sabathia
WINS ERA SO IP
19 3.00 230 237
OTHER LEADERS
BAR. Cano .302
HRC. Granderson 41
RBIC. Granderson 119
RC. Granderson 136
OPSC. Granderson .916
ERAC. Sabathia 3.00
SOC. Sabathia 230

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