Here is a little more information into why I have the Montero Meter at 60 percent he will get traded by July 31. No. 1, he is the best chip that Brian Cashman has that Cashman has a willingness to deal. Cashman has already included Montero in failed attempts to land Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee the past 18 months.
Manny Banuelos is the best chip, but I would be absolutely shocked if Cashman dealt him.
(Even for Felix Hernandez, though, if Cashman did that my reaction would drop from "absolutely shocked" to a "bit surprised.")
The No. 2 reason that Montero might be dealt is because, though, the Yankees say all the right things about his defense, there are questions if he will be able to be average behind the plate. I think Joe Girardi and Cashman believe a catcher's first responsibility is the pitching staff.
Is it great to have such a great bat, like a Posada or a Piazza, as your catcher? Yes, but the Yankees have offense at nearly, if not, all other positions. So it is a luxury.
Thirdly, as I spoke about on Bombers Beat and the blog just below, the Yankees hierarchy loves Russell Martin. They have for awhile. He is controllable and has a reasonable contract. He could be their catcher next year and maybe longer. Then they have Austin Romine and Gary Sanchez coming. Not to mention, Francisco Cervelli. (Sorry, Gustavo Molina, you are not in the long-term plans.)
You add that up with the fact that Montero has been crushing the ball at Triple-A and the Montero Meter is at 60 percent he will be traded by July 31. .