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Thursday, March 22, 2012
O/U: Phil Hughes' wins at 13

By Andrew Marchand

In a recurring feature of the blog, we play the always fun "Over-Under Game," in which we will set the line for a player and a stat and ask you to weigh in.

The Player: Phil Hughes
The number:
13 wins

The scouting report: Hughes looks tremendous thus far this spring, which we detailed here and here yesterday and here today. He looks trimmer and ready to go. As of right now, I don't see how he is not in the rotation. He looks that solid.

For the season, Bill James projects him at 6-5 with a 3.71 in 17 starts. Our own Dan Szymborkski has him at 9-8 with a 4.84 ERA in 22 starts. I think, given his penchant for being injured, it might be reasonable to think that he will only make 20 or so starts.

But watching Hughes, seeing the kind of shape he is in and feeling he is more dedicated, I think he goes for upper 20s in starts, maybe even the low 30s. With that, I think Hughes finishes 15-8 this season and his ERA is around 3.73.

The Question: Will Hughes win more or less than 13 games?