Monday, January 7, 2013
How would a team of '25 Cervellis' do?
By Mark Simon
So Butch Wynegar would like to have 25 Francisco Cervellis on his team. We decided to have some fun and crunch the numbers.
So Yankees Triple-A hitting coach (and former Bronx Bombers catcher) Butch Wynegar says he would take a roster full of Francisco Cervellis on his team any time. "I wish I had 25 Cervellis," Wynegar said of the Yankees' potential starting catcher for 2013.
We can’t necessarily tell you how a roster full of Cervellis would do -- he's not a pitcher, after all. But we can tell you how a lineup of Cervellis would fare at the major league level.
A few decades ago, the sabermetrician Bill James came up with a stat that he called “Offensive Winning Percentage.”
James used it to estimate how many runs a lineup of nine copies of a particular player would produce, given average pitching and average defense.
James incorporated all aspects of a player’s offensive performance (ability to hit, hit for power, draw walks, run the bases) to come up with the number, the calculation for which can be found here.
Baseball-Reference.com lists the offensive winning percentage for every season for every player.
In his 184-game Yankees career, Cervelli was credited with creating 60 runs and making 394 outs. That converts to 4.1 runs created per game.
In Cervelli’s time in the bigs, a team that scored 4.1 runs per game and had average pitching and defense would win about 43 percent of the time, or about 70 games in a 162-game season.
Cervelli’s numbers are hurt by his rough numbers in 42 games in 2009. Combine his 2010 and 2011 stats together and his team would win about 75 games.