Tuesday, March 26, 2013
First Pitch: 36 saves for No. 42?
By Andrew Marchand
Each morning, from now through Opening Day, Wallace Matthews and I will play the over-under game with you to get you ready for the regular season. On Monday, Wally looked into if Derek Jeter will play 120 games or not. Today, I take a look at another Yankee legend's 2013 prospects.
So far this spring, Mariano Rivera has thrown five scoreless innings and given up three hits. He has struck out nearly half of his outs -- 7-of-15 -- and walked only one batter. The new Mariano looks like the old Mariano.
"I don't think it is fair to say I expect it," GM Brian Cashman said. "All he has produced is greatness. Do I expect it? At his age, coming off of a knee, I have no idea. All I know is he looks fine in spring training."
Rivera, 43, does indeed. Entering his final major league season, the question coming into camp was Rivera's health. He crumbled to the ground nearly 11 months ago and hasn't pitched in a regular season game since. In the spring, it has hard to tell anything was wrong with him.
When Rivera agreed to a contract this offseason, he said he is not only coming back, but he is coming back to win. The question when you consider if Rivera will have 36 saves or not may come down to opportunity. Will the Yankees give him enough save chances to reach that goal? Plus, how conservative will Joe Girardi be with Rivera, trying to conserve the old man for the long season.
Rivera has had 36 or fewer saves in seven of the 16 seasons he has been closer. In the glorious season of 1998, he had 36 saves. In 2000, on the way to another title, he had 36 saves. So this seems like a good number to place Mo's saves line.
I believe Mo will go out in style in 2013. While the Yankees may not make the playoffs, I think Mo will not be the reason why. I'm projecting him for 35 saves. So I'm taking the under, but that is because I think his chances might be a little more limited than in years' past.