New York Yankees: O/U

O/U: Derek Jeter games

March, 14, 2014
Mar 14
11:45
AM ET
Over/Unders is a little game we like to play on the blog as a tool for predictions. This is one in a series.

I was wrong, but I wasn't alone. I always thought Derek Jeter would be the last to know. He would play until they ripped the uniform off his back.

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Over/Under: Derek Jeter, 125 games

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    58%
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    42%

Discuss (Total votes: 3,939)

But maybe, just maybe, Jeter was the first to know.

He has started spring training 4-for-24, which might mean nothing or could be telling. We truly don't know.

Let's be clear, no one is counting Jeter out in his retirement season.

We saw him rebound from being a .270 hitter from 2010 into the middle of 2011. He picked up hit No. 3,000 and magically turned back into Jeter again in 2012, leading the world in hits with 216.

The year ended with his ankle cracked, and 2013 never really started. He ended up playing just 17 games. So before we can predict how many hits Jeter will have in 2014, we have to guess on how many games he will play.

OVER/UNDER: 125 games

CASE FOR 125: Jeter has only played in fewer than 125 games three times in his career. In 1995, he appeared in 15 as a late season call-up, so we can throw that out. In 2003, he made Ken Huckaby famous on Opening Day, and his shoulder injury limited him to 119 games. And then last season, when he only made it out on the field 17 times.

So history is on Jeter's side, except that he has a lot of history. He turns 40 in June, which doesn't bode well for staying on the field.

Joe Girardi will manage Jeter's playing time. With the slick-fielding Brendan Ryan on the roster, I could imagine Jeter seeing a good amount of DH time with Masahiro Tanaka's and Hiroki Kuroda's splitters. This could save Jeter's health.

For his part, Jeter says he feels good because he was able to have a normal winter this year instead of rolling around on a scooter, as he did after he broke his ankle in October 2012. He seems to be moving around fairly well, even if his timing is messed up, according to Girardi.

CASE AGAINST 125: Jeter turns 40. His legs were a total mess last season. And did we mention that he turns 40?

By Jeter's age, baseball players' bodies tend to break down. We saw it last year with No. 2. It wasn't a coincidence that Jeter couldn't shake off the various ailments quickly. It happens to us all of us, even legendary ballplayers.

THE VERDICT: I'm going to go over, just over. It is not smart to bet against Jeter on the baseball field. He will prove you wrong. So I'll say he'll play 126 games, despite his age.

YOUR TURN: What have you got? More or less than 125 games for Jeter?

O/U: Phil Hughes' wins at 13

March, 22, 2012
3/22/12
11:30
AM ET
In a recurring feature of the blog, we play the always fun "Over-Under Game," in which we will set the line for a player and a stat and ask you to weigh in.

The Player: Phil Hughes
The number:
13 wins

The scouting report: Hughes looks tremendous thus far this spring, which we detailed here and here yesterday and here today. He looks trimmer and ready to go. As of right now, I don't see how he is not in the rotation. He looks that solid.

For the season, Bill James projects him at 6-5 with a 3.71 in 17 starts. Our own Dan Szymborkski has him at 9-8 with a 4.84 ERA in 22 starts. I think, given his penchant for being injured, it might be reasonable to think that he will only make 20 or so starts.

But watching Hughes, seeing the kind of shape he is in and feeling he is more dedicated, I think he goes for upper 20s in starts, maybe even the low 30s. With that, I think Hughes finishes 15-8 this season and his ERA is around 3.73.

The Question: Will Hughes win more or less than 13 games?

O/U: Andy Pettitte -- 10 wins?

March, 19, 2012
3/19/12
3:14
PM ET
In a recurring feature of the blog, we play the always fun "Over-Under Game," in which we will set the line for a player and a stat and ask you to weigh in.

The Player: Andy Pettitte
The number:
10 wins

The scouting report: Pettitte went 11-3 with a 3.28 ERA in 21 starts. So if Pettitte were to arrive in May and made 20-25 starts, then 10 victories could be very realistic. However, that is going on a big if. If Pettitte stays healthy. To me, after missing a year, that will be the most difficult obstacle.

Personally, I think Andy wins eight or nine games, but is ready to go in October. I think the Yankees would take that.

The Question: Does Andy Pettitte win 10 or more games? Over or under?

O/U: How many wins for Ivan Nova?

March, 14, 2012
3/14/12
10:00
AM ET
In a recurring feature of the blog, we play the always fun "Over-Under Game," in which we will set the line for a player and a stat and ask you to weigh in.

The Number: 13 wins

The Scouting Report: Ivan Nova won 16 games last year and he finished the regular season looking as if he might not lose ever again. Still, Bill James only projects him to go 10-10 this season, while ESPN insider Dan Zsymborski says he will finish 13-10.

The Answer: I'm going the over. I've got Nova winning 15. I think he is the real deal and won't be complacent after last year's success. What say you?
Tags:

Ivan Nova, O/U

In a recurring feature of the blog, we play the always fun "Over-Under Game," in which we will set the line for a player and a stat and ask you to weigh in.

There are now five playoffs spots in the American League, which means there are enough for the entire AL East elite (Yankees, Rays and Red Sox) to make it into the playoffs.

The Number: 3

The Scouting Report: The biggest reasons to think the AL East won't have three teams in the playoffs are the Mariners and A's. The two AL West powerhouses, the Rangers and the Angels, have the advantage of facing Seattle and Oakland. The Yankees, Red Sox and Rays not only have to face off with each other, they have the Blue Jays to contend with.

In the end, I think that is why one of the AL East teams will be left out of the dance. Right now, I would say the Rays will be the team not making it to the playoffs, but I reserve the right to change my mind. What says you?

Yanks O/U: Michael Pineda's wins

February, 27, 2012
2/27/12
4:00
PM ET
In a recurring feature of the blog, we play the always fun "Over-Under Game," in which we will set the line for a player and a stat and ask you to weigh in.

The Player: Michael Pineda
The number:
15 wins

The scouting report: Pineda became a Yankee on the tumultuous Friday, Jan. 13, when he came over from the Mariners in exchange for Jesus Montero on the same night the Yankees came to terms with Hiroki Kuroda, ostensibly plugging all the holes in their rotation in one fell swoop.

Coming to New York as a 23-year-old pitcher with just one season under his belt carries a significant amount of pressure on its own. Throw in the expectation that Pineda will eventually be the No. 2 starter behind CC Sabathia , and the fact that he cost the Yankees Montero, the most highly-touted bat in their organization, and you're looking at a potential nuclear meltdown in the Bronx.

Pineda is huge (6-7, 280) and hugely talented, but he pitched in the comparatively pitcher-friendly confines of Safeco Field and now moves to homer-happy Yankee Stadium 3.0. Plus, as GM Brian Cashman pointed out the other day, the Yankees believe Pineda still needs to add a changeup to his fastball-slider repertoire to become a successful big-league starter. That might account for Pineda's second half drop-off in 2011, when he went 1-4 with a 5.12 ERA after starting out 8-6, 3.03. So may have the workload, 171 IP in his rookie season.

In any event, Pineda was hurt by the weak Mariners' offense, which scored the fewest runs in the league, and will no doubt benefit from the Yankees lineup, which scored the second most. Then again, as a fly ball pitcher -- only five pitchers in baseball surrendered a higher percentage of fly balls than Pineda in 2011 --he is bound to be victimized by the short fences and helpful air currents in Yankee Stadium.

So how many wins are we looking at for Pineda in 2012?

I set the over/under at 15. And I'm picking the under. Between adjusting to the media and fan demands of New York City and contending with working in a hitter's park, I'm thinking 14 wins for Pineda in his first season as a Yankee.

But what I think isn't important. What do you think Michael Pineda will do in his first season in pinstripes? Let us know below.

Yanks O/U: Nick Swisher's HRs

February, 26, 2012
2/26/12
3:30
PM ET
In a recurring feature of the blog, we play the always fun "Over-Under Game," in which we will set the line for a player and a stat and ask you to weigh in.

The Player: Nick Swisher
The Number: 25 home runs

The Scouting Report: Swisher came to camp this year with a new body but the same enthusiastic outlook on the upcoming season, and entering the final year of his three-year contract, Swishalicious needs to have a big 2012 in order to have any hope of remaining a Yankee beyond this year.

Last year, Swisher struggled early -- he didn't hit his first home run until April 28 and had only three HRS by the end of May -- but rebounded nicely to bat .260, hit 23 HRs and post a .374 OBP, highest among the Yankee regulars.

This year, our professional projectionist -- ESPN Insider Dan Szymborski, of ZiPs Projections -- expects a slight drop-off in production despite the motivation of the walk year, projecting 24 HRs but a BA of .253 and OBP of .358.

I set the over/under on the number of homers the new, muscular Swisher will hit at 25, since he has hit as many as 35 and belted 29 in each of his first two seasons as a Yankee. I'm picking the over. Say, 27.

Now, what say you? Over or under 25 jacks for Nicky Two Guns? And by how much?

O/U: Derek Jeter's average (.292)

February, 24, 2012
2/24/12
2:30
PM ET
In a recurring feature of the blog, we play the always fun "Over-Under Game," in which we will set the line for a player and a stat and ask you to weigh in.

The Player: Derek Jeter
The Number: .292 batting average


The Scouting Report: Jeter finished last year hitting .297, which included batting .327 in the second half of the season. For his career, Jeter is a .313 career hitter.

Our insider colleague Dan Szymborski projects Jeter, soon-to-be-38, to hit just .268. For a more positive outlook, the legendary Bill James has Jeter at .291. I've set the number at .292 average, thinking like Vegas that will encourage people to weigh in on both sides.

Personally, I would take the under with Jeter hitting in the .280s.

The Line: Will Derek Jeter hit over .292 or under .292? (Answers below)

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TEAM LEADERS

BA LEADER
Jacoby Ellsbury
BA HR RBI R
.360 0 4 6
OTHER LEADERS
HRC. Beltran 4
RBIC. Beltran 9
RC. Beltran 8
OPSC. Beltran 1.025
WM. Tanaka 2
ERAM. Tanaka 2.05
SOM. Tanaka 28

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