What's so great about Josh Johnson?
May, 16, 2011
5/16/11
1:00
PM ET
By Mark Simon | ESPNNewYork.com
The image on the left shows where Josh Johnson primarily throws breaking pitches to left-handed hitters. The image on the right shows where he primarily throws them to righties.
Marlins starter Josh Johnson enters today's start against the Mets with an 8-1 record and a 2.73 ERA against them.
And this season he's established himself as baseball's dominant pitcher, with a 3-1 mark and a 1.63 ERA, with four tough no-decisions through no fault of his own.
So what is it that makes Johnson so great? Check out the illustrations above.
Johnson has two different breaking pitches-- a curveball and a slider. For the purposes of this piece, let's lump both together.
The picture on the left shows where Johnson most frequently locates his breaking pitches to left-handed hitters in 2011. The image on the right shows where Johnson primarily locates them to right-handed hitters.
We've isolated just the areas with the greatest frequency and shaded them in red to make them easily distinguishable. That's not where every Johnson breaking pitch ends up ... but they end up there more often than not.
Watch Baseball Tonight any time Johnson pitches and you'll hear our announcers marvel at that pitch location. Those pitches are almost impossible and the numbers bear it out.
Righties and lefties have made 68 outs in at-bats that ended with a Johnson breaking pitch, and gotten just four base hits.
Hitters are missing on 40 percent of their swings against that pitch, a rate that puts Johnson among the best major league starters. They're also chasing pitches at a similar rate.
Johnson must know this. Our Pitch F/X data shows he ranks among the bottom five percent of major league pitchers at throwing his breaking ball in the strike zone. But it's too tantalizing to pass up.
When hitters do make contact, they don't hit the ball well. Johnson has induced 24 ground balls with his curve/slider combo. That has yielded a total of one base hit. And the only player to get that hit? It took the best hitter in baseball to do it-- Albert Pujols. That's a pretty good statement as to where Johnson is at this point in 2011. It will be a challenge for the Mets to overcome tonight.
For more on Johnson, check out this blog post from ESPN Stats & Info a few weeks ago.

- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
Trying to show restraint, but this one is on #Mets postgame notes: Three NL starters are 0-5: Shaun Marcum, Jeremy Hefner and Josh Beckett.
about an hour ago
- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin

- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
Rapid Reaction: Reds 4, Mets 3 http://t.co/GUNH2DIzIP #NYM #Mets
about 2 hours ago
- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin

- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
Corrected: Princeton's Matt Bowman continues to roll for St. Lucie. No-decision tonight, but tossed 7 IP, 11 Ks, 2 ER at Dunedin (long day)
about 2 hours ago
- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin

- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
Final: #Reds 4, #Mets 3. Rapid Reaction coming shortly to blog: http://t.co/BUxLHdl7KY
about 2 hours ago
- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin

- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
Princeton product Matt Bowman continues to role for St. Lucie #Mets. No decision tonight, but tossed 7 IP, 11 Ks, 2 ER at Dunedin.
about 2 hours ago
- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin

- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
I'll just note Scott Boras is his agent. And he's very good.//RT @whyyounolikeeme: How much you think Choo commands this off-season? 5-$60M?
about 2 hours ago
- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin

- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
Mets will go to final inning trailing by a run. Good news: Aroldis Chapman has blown 2 straight saves. #Reds 4, #Mets 3, end 8.
about 2 hours ago
- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin

- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
So I can see the Mets actually spending in free agency, including for a Choo type, and still have payroll go down.
about 2 hours ago
- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin

- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
There will be arbitration raises. Really rough estimate: Mets would probably need to spend ~$50M in FA to have same $95M payroll in '14
about 2 hours ago
- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin

- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
$16 million of Jason Bay's $21M is technically deferred to 2014/15, before someone starts barking I mischaracterized it.
about 2 hours ago
- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin

- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
That said, I wouldn't hold by breath. But Santana ($31M), Bay ($21M), Francisco ($6.5M), Buck ($6M), Marcum ($4M) all expiring.
about 2 hours ago
- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin

- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
Biggest payroll commitments for next season: Wright $20M. Niese $5M So yes. // RT @mooseknuck11: Mets have enough $ for ellsbury AND choo?
about 2 hours ago
- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin

- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
Believe Mets record for most winless starts to begin a Mets career is untouchable: Bob Miller did not record a win in 20 starts in 1962.
about 2 hours ago
- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin

- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
Both won their second starts as Mets. // RT @JonOrBattleship: Hefner? Anthony Young?
about 2 hours ago
- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin

- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
Official Citi Field attendance: RT @MattEhalt: 23,038 came to watch Hawkins and Collins get run. #mets #reds
about 2 hours ago
- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin

- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
At risk of bringing wrath upon myself still merit in pitching better than guy you oppose./RT @ericviola_: People still look at pitcher wins?
about 2 hours ago
- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin

- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
Marcum 0 wins in 1st 5 starts. Most recent longer streaks to open Mets career: Schwinden (6, '11-12), Redding (6, '09) and Ishii (5, '05)
about 2 hours ago
- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin

- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
Believe those were first #Mets ejections this season.
about 3 hours ago
- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin

- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
Justin Turner snaps an 0-for-12 skid with 1-out single in bot 7. Mets hadn't produced hit since Marlon Byrd's HR. #Reds 4, #Mets 3, bot 7.
about 3 hours ago
- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin

- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
LaTroy Hawkins strands bases loaded in 7th with strikeout of Jay Bruce on his 29th pitch. #Reds 4, #Mets 3, mid-7.
about 3 hours ago
- AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin




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