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The New York Giants have turned me into a pineapple. Can they beat the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, continue their late-season surge and make a run in the NFC playoffs? Click on the video to hear this week's predictions -- straight from the pineapple's mouth.

Last week: 2-0
Season to date: 28-25

You're going to hear lots of predictions over the coming days, but Accuscore runs 10,000 simulations of each game, and hard work like that needs to be recognized. According to this ESPN.com video, the Accuscore prediction for Sunday's wild-card playoff game between the New York Giants and the Atlanta Falcons favors the Giants, who won it in 59 percent of those simulations.

The numbers go deeper, as you'll see, but there are few surprises. If Michael Turner gets at least 75 yards on the ground, the Falcons' chances of winning go way up. If Giants pass-rushers Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora and Jason Pierre-Paul can force Matt Ryan into two interceptions and sack him four times, the Giants' chances of winning go over 90 percent. As I said, just one of many predictions you'll see this week that don't come from a pineapple.

Three things to know about next Sunday’s Atlanta Falcons-New York Giants wild-card game:

1. Another aerial assault. The Giants’ secondary has struggled throughout the second half of this season, and things don’t get any easier with the Falcons coming to town. Entering play Sunday, Atlanta ranked seventh in the league in pass yards per game and just 20^th in rush yards per game. They like to throw the ball, and quarterback Matt Ryan has a variety of downfield options in wide receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones along with ageless tight end Tony Gonzalez. They run enough with Michael Turner to keep a defense honest, and they’re 22-3 over the past four seasons when Turner rushes for at least 100 yards. But the main problem for the Giants will be making sure to get everybody covered in the passing game.

2. King of the road. Used to be, Ryan was at his best at home in the Georgia Dome. But this year, Ryan’s been a more effective passer on the road -- at least when throwing deep. Entering Sunday’s home finale, in which he threw two touchdowns on 6-for-9 passing before coming out of the blowout game, Ryan’s completion percentage on deep throws was 42.9 on the road compared to 36.5 at home. And his Total QBR on deep throws on the road was 94.8 versus 54.0 at home. ESPN Stats & Information informs us that that’s the largest disparity in the league in that category. Expect Ryan and the Falcons to take some shots downfield and not to be intimidated by MetLife Stadium.

3. Head-to-head history. The Giants are 10-10 all-time against the Falcons and have won three in a row against them, but they haven’t seen them since Nov. 22, 2009, when the two teams hooked up in a wild game at the old Giants Stadium. New York coughed up a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter but ended up winning in overtime. Eli Manning had 384 yards and three touchdowns in that game. Atlanta has overhauled its past defense over the past couple of years, but they’ve been banged-up in the secondary and can be thrown on, as the Saints proved last Monday Night.

Some thoughts on the Philadelphia Eagles' painful 35-31 loss to the Falcons in Atlanta:

What it means: The outcome likely means little, as the Falcons are one of the top teams in the NFC and Atlanta is a nearly impossible place to win. The most significant aspect of this game for the Eagles was the concussion that knocked out quarterback Michael Vick. If he's to miss any significant amount of time, the Eagles' expectations for this season will need to be re-calibrated. Whether it's Vince Young or Mike Kafka who steps in to replace him, he'll still have that wide array of offensive weapons at his disposal. But neither brings the game-changing ability we saw from Vick, who led the Eagles back into the lead with stunning speed after he gave that lead away with turnovers on either side of halftime.

Cruel game: Eagles receiver Jeremy Maclin had an all-time game, catching 13 passes for 171 yards and two touchdowns. And yet, it was his drop of a Kafka pass on fourth down in the final two minutes that likely will stick with him, as a catch there would have extended the game and given the Eagles a chance to win it. The silver lining for Eagles fans is that any and all of last week's doubts about Maclin's health and ability to be a factor in the passing game should now be erased.

Run defense a mixed bag: Atlanta's Michael Turner broke off a couple of nice runs early, but the Eagles' run defense really stiffened up thereafter ... until that last Atlanta scoring drive, on which Turner had the backbreaking 61-yard run that set up his touchdown. The Eagles' defensive linemen -- in particular the outstanding Cullen Jenkins -- look as though they can play the run on their way to the passer, even as they rely on aggressive pressure up the middle. But when they miss -- when they fail to stop the running back before or at the line of scrimmage -- it falls to the linebackers to make the stop, and that's not the Eagles' strength. Rookie middle linebacker Casey Matthews remains a work in progress and has little or no chance one-on-one against a back as powerful as Turner. Fortunately for Matthews, the league has only a handful of those.

Sloppy with the ball: Whenever Vick comes back, whether it's next week, the week after or a month from now, he'll have to be more responsible with the ball. Three fumbles (two lost) and an interception in less than three quarters of a game is just unacceptable, and it cost the Eagles on the scoreboard to which Vick was pointing as he walked off the field. His talent is unquestioned. The thing we're trying to find out about Vick this season is how serious he's going to be about his responsibilities as a quarterback and a leader. He was simply too loose in key spots Sunday night, and that had little to do with the protection he got.

What's next: The Eagles will try to extend their winning streak against the division-rival Giants to seven in their home opener Sunday in Philadelphia.

» NFC Final Word: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Five nuggets of knowledge about the Week 7 games.

Can Kevin Kolb stay on a roll against an opportunistic defense? You can throw for a lot of yards against the Titans, as the Giants and Cowboys showed. But the Titans' secondary is good at keeping teams out of the end zone. They've only given up six passing touchdowns this season and they have a knack for making plays in the red zone, as Giants running back Ahmad Bradshaw knows all too well. Cortland Finnegan is one of the more underrated cornerbacks in the league, but I think Jeremy Maclin can get open against him. If the Titans sell out to stop Maclin, Kolb will look for Jason Avant and Brent Celek. Against a quick defensive line -- Dave Ball and Jason Babin have been outstanding -- Kolb will have to unload the ball quickly. LeSean McCoy has emerged as a big-time threat in the passing game, so look for him to try to get in matchups with former teammate Will Witherspoon in space. In a hostile environment, it's imperative that the Eagles have their quick game working early. I think Avant will be open on some drag routes because the Titans' safeties will let him cross their faces. If the Eagles have one turnover or less, I think they’ll win. The Titans feed off defensive takeaways. When they don't happen, this can look like a pretty ordinary team.

The Cowboys must be aware of Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora at all times. Umenyiora has turned into the same beast we remember from '07. The Cowboys are going to have to help Marc Colombo against Umenyiora because of his speed and ability to get low around the edge. The former Pro Bowler has eight sacks and a staggering seven forced fumbles on the season. When Mathias Kiwanuka went down with a neck injury following the Titans game, Umenyiora raised his level of play significantly. And as Justin Tuck likes to point out, defensive tackle Barry Cofield is having a remarkable season. It's a good thing the Giants weren't able to complete that draft-day trade with him. Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo has great respect for the Giants' defensive line, and that's why you'll likely see a steady dose of screens again this week. I do think Romo will try to see if he can get Witten matched up against Giants middle linebacker Jonathan Goff early in this game. By the way, Hakeem Nicks (hamstring) and Tuck (ankle) missed Friday's practice, but they're both expected to play.

The Redskins can't fall asleep in the secondary. You would hope the Skins have watched film of what the Giants did to the Bears three weeks ago. Jay Cutler was under siege from the opening snap of that game. He's really bad about holding the ball too long. If outside linebackers Brian Orakpo and Lorenzo Alexander can make Cutler uncomfortable, he's a mistake waiting to happen. This is a game where you always must be looking for the strip. The Bears killed the Cowboys by dumping the ball to Matt Forte and Devin Hester in the quick passing game. That set up a deep ball to Johnny Knox. The Bears don't have possession receivers, but they do have wideouts who can fly. Kareem Moore and LaRon Landry must make sure they're getting proper depth. And DeAngelo Hall must stop questioning his coaches long enough to have his head in the game Sunday and not give up any deep balls.

Can the Cowboys cut down on their penalties against the Giants? Coach Wade Phillips hired officials for practice this week in an effort to identify some of the problems. The Cowboys lead the league by averaging 80.8 yards per game from penalties. They're called for nearly 10 penalties per game. The Giants were on a similar pace earlier in the season, but they've eliminated some of those mistakes. All this talk about how well the Cowboys have played from Phillips and Jerry Jones is falling on deaf ears. If they have 10 penalties against the Giants on Monday, I think they'll lose.

Eagles linebackers must be on their game against Titans RB Chris Johnson. The Eagles were solid against Frank Gore and Michael Turner, but they realize that Johnson has a different gear. He's having a down year by his ridiculous standards, but he's still capable of going off for 170 yards and three touchdowns against pretty much any defense in the league. Defensive coordinator Sean McDermott has preached the importance of "gap-sound" football this week in practice.

"As soon as you think you have him stopped, he cuts it back and he hits a seam and he's off to the races,” McDermott told reporters Thursday.

The Titans are the rare team that will stay with the running game if they fall behind by 10 points or so. Honestly, it's probably worse for the Eagles if Kerry Collins starts for Vince Young. With Young, you know he's only going to throw the ball about 20 times. Collins is still capable of having a big day in the passing game, though. But the Titans are smart enough never to abandon the running game.

» NFC Final Word: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Five nuggets of knowledge about Week 11 in the Beast.

The Redskins have to do a better job against double moves. The Skins are coming off a nice win, but the secondary let Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall get deep on two touchdowns and he could have had another if not for a poorly thrown pass. Carlos Rogers, DeAngelo Hall and Fred Smoot are all aggressive players who sometimes get caught guessing on routes. The Cowboys have had success with Miles Austin on double routes and I would expect them to try to take advantage of the Redskins' aggressiveness. It also looks like Redskins safeties LaRon Landry and Reed Doughty have taken some poor angles to the ball on deep throws. The Cowboys have to be more balanced on offense this week, but they'll still take some shots downfield. Look for the Redskins to shade Landry in Austin's direction, which might open something up for Roy Williams on a vertical route.

Can the Giants fix their issues on defense? The good news is that this is the healthiest they've been all season. There's even a chance that cornerback Aaron Ross finally returns to the field. The Giants have paid dearly for not having sufficient depth at safety. If Ross could actually move over and help them at safety, there could be a huge payoff. I also think this could be a big game for former Falcons linebacker Michael Boley. The team pretty much gave up on the speedy linebacker. Now, he has a chance to make them pay. The Falcons lose an important player with running back Michael Turner out this week. Quarterback Matt Ryan will have to get the job done, and he's been very shaky in protecting the footbally lately. He managed games so well last season that it's hard to believe that he could throw so many interceptions. The Giants need to get in his face early and not allow him to find a rhythm.

I think the Eagles will be much better on defense this week. And I'm not just talking about the fact that they'll be staring across from the interception-machine known as Jay Cutler. It looks like Joe Mays will step in at middle linebacker, allowing Chris Gocong to return to the strong-side spot. With Will Witherspoon at the weak-side position, I think the Eagles will look like a more athletic team. Mays isn't a star or anything but he's capable of covering running backs and tight ends. If Sheldon Brown can play through a hamstring injury, I think the Eagles will be OK in the secondary. If Brown can't go, the Eagles are going to be hurting. Quintin Mikell and Asante Samuel are both strong players, but they wouldn't have much help with Brown on the sideline. Defensive coordinator Sean McDermott desperately needs his front four to generate most of the pass-rush. You don't want to be bringing a lot of blitzes with the way this secondary looks right now.

Cowboys offensive coordinator Jason Garrett needs to re-discover the running game. Garrett said the game plan got "out of whack" last week against the Packers because of some down-and-distance situations. Some of that's true, but he could've done more to establish the running game. What's the point in spending a first-round pick on Felix Jones if you're going to give him three touches in a tight game? Jones is one of the most explosive players on the team and Garrett has to dial him up this week. Owner Jerry Jones pretty much said the same thing this week. He wants to see the other Jones get more opportunities, so hopefully that happens.

Watch this matchup between Cowboys right tackle Doug Free and Redskins linebacker Brian Orakpo. I realize that Orakpo's a stand-up linebacker on first down but he'll see plenty of action at defensive end. He's a strong player who loves to use the bull-rush -- and I think that's Free's biggest deficiency. The former Northern Illinois player moves really well laterally and he's what scouts call a good "foot athlete," but he can get overpowered. Look for Skins defensive coordinator Greg Blache to try and get Orakpo in one-on-one situations with Free. The Cowboys will try to counter that by helping out Free with tight ends. If the Redskins pull off the upset, I think Orakpo will have had a monster game. Keep that in mind this Sunday. And have a tremendous football weekend.

The bye week has obviously been good to the Giants. They only had three players on the injury report before Wednesday's practice: Eli Manning (foot), Aaron Ross (hamstring), Ahmad Bradshaw (foot/ankle).

Of that group, Bradshaw was the only one who didn't practice today. Coach Tom Coughlin said the team would continue to bring Ross along slowly.

"We’re just kind of bringing him along, giving him more opportunities and trying to take off the straps and any kind of limitations that are there,” Coughlin said. “It’s his job to prove to us that there are no limitations."

More good news for the Giants: Falcons running back Michael Turner has a high-ankle sprain and it's unlikely he'll be able to play Sunday. That obviously takes away a major weapon for the Falcons.

Posted by ESPN.com's Matt Mosley

	Geoff Burke/US Presswire
	Washington coach Jim Zorn has seemed over his head this year as coach of the Redskins and is not likely to continue after this season.

Power Rankings: Preseason: 20. This week: 26.

2009 Schedule/Results

Where they stand: The Redskins have no standing in the division. Jim Zorn and his team have a lot of pride and they'll be as professional as possible over the last eight games. That's about the best thing I can say. At 2-6, I don't see them running off eight straight to slip into the playoffs. After years of neglect via the draft and free agency, the Redskins allowed themselves to enter the season with a highly questionable offensive line. And now that Chris Samuels and Randy Thomas are out for the season, this is possibly the worst unit in the league. How's Jason Campbell supposed to prove anything playing behind this offensive line?

Disappointments: This was supposed to be the season that either Devin Thomas or Malcolm Kelly did some damage, but it hasn't happened. There's no time for anything to develop downfield, so Campbell's been forced to drop the ball off to running backs and tight ends. It's a waste that the Redskins have Santana Moss because the speedster doesn't have time to make one of his famous double moves. Many of you disagree with me, but I actually think Albert Haynesworth has been somewhat of a disappointment. For $41 million guaranteed, I'd like to see a man who takes over games from nose tackle spot. When Michael Turner gashes you for a big day, you're not taking over games. And why are there so many Haynesworth apologists out there? It's rare to see such a wealthy man engender so much sympathy.

Surprises: I'm surprised that Clinton Portis has been so ineffective, but I guess that should've gone in the "disappointments" category. Let's give Rocky McIntosh and London Fletcher their due. Not huge surprises, but they've been solid at linebacker. The interception McIntosh made against Matt Ryan in Week 9 was pretty impressive. I think Brian Orakpo could put himself in the rookie of the year competition with a big second half of the season. He has 5.5 sacks, which is pretty impressive for a guy playing out of position.

Outlook: The biggest storyline in the second half of the season will be figuring out who the new head coach will be. Dan Snyder needs to be proactive on this decision. He made Zorn the head coach two years ago because everyone else was taken. I think Zorn could've been a decent offensive coordinator, but he wasn't ready to be a head coach. Especially when you factor in the talent level of this team. It's simply not where it needs to be. I'm sure executive vice president of football operations Vinny Cerrato will try to land Mike Shanahan as head coach. The two worked together with the 49ers, so that's the best chance of Cerrato keeping his current gig.

Posted by ESPN.com's Matt Mosley

Here are a few quick-hitting observations from the Cowboys' 37-21 win over the Falcons on Sunday:

• The Cowboys decided to play nose tackle Junior Siavii earlier in the game than usual and that seemed to help starter Jay Ratliff. Siavii did a really nice job against Michael Turner and he helped collapse the pocket against Matt Ryan. He said it was his goal for the defense's production not to fall off while he was on the field -- and I'd say he accomplished that.
• I'm not sure what was going on with Roy Williams, but at least for one game, the Cowboys didn't need him. With Miles Austin having another big day, Williams finished with one catch for 16 yards. He dropped at least one ball and he cut off his route on another. He said his ribs weren't bothering him, but I thought he looked lost on the field. Williams is a very willing blocker, but he was acquired to catch passes. Right now, he's playing more like a No. 3 receiver.
• I'm the first to rip Wade Phillips, so let's give the man a little credit today. This hasn't been the fierce pass-rush that we anticipated, but on Sunday, Phillips did a nice job of putting his players in winning situations. When Marcus Spears and Stephen Bowen are breaking through to rush the passer, it creates so many more options. That opened things up for DeMarcus Ware later in the game. This has not been a big-play defense, but the Cowboys won the turnover battle against the Falcons. It was pretty impressive.
• Is Ratliff the best player on this defense? I think Ware's one of the most dynamic players in the league, but I truly think this defense feeds off Ratliff's energy. I'm not sure there's another player on the team who can match his intensity. The Falcons' center didn't know what to do with Ratliff. He'd get bull-rushed for a little while and then he'd get humiliated by Ratliff's speed. This is a guy who will keep going to Pro Bowls for years to come.

Posted by ESPN.com's Matt Mosley

ARLINGTON, Texas -- The Cowboys have found a No. 1 wide receiver -- and he doesn't go by the name Roy Williams. For the second consecutive game, fourth-year receiver Miles Austin put up huge numbers in helping the Cowboys pick up a monster win over the Atlanta Falcons.

Austin had six catches for 171 yards and two touchdowns in his first game since breaking the Cowboys' single-game record in a win over the Chiefs two weeks ago. Austin has 16 catches for 421 yards and four touchdowns in his past two games -- and he's become Tony Romo's favorite target.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Cowboys gave Matt Ryan fits almost the entire afternoon. All-Pro outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware had two sacks and caused a fumble in leading a fierce Cowboys pass-rush. Ryan led the Falcons on a long touchdown drive to start the game, but he never really returned to that rhythm. He was 19-of-34 for 198 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. The first interception occurred when Ware and nose tackle Jay Ratliff were breathing down Ryan's neck.

The only Falcons player the Cowboys' defense couldn't account for was fullback Jason Snelling, who had 68 yards rushing on only seven carries. The Cowboys assured themselves of at least being in a tie for second place in the NFC East heading into next Sunday's game against the Seahawks.

It was also a big game for Patrick Crayton, who was benched to make room for Austin in the starting lineup. Crayton caught a touchdown pass with six seconds left in the first half to give the Cowboys a 17-7 lead. Then he put the Falcons away with a punt return for a touchdown. He was pressed into return duties when the newly acquired Allen Rossum went down with a hamstring injury early in the game.

It was also a big day for Cowboys linebacker Keith Brooking, the longtime Falcon. He didn't put up big stats (two tackles) but he was a big reason that Michael Turner couldn't get going. And after plays, Brooking spent time jawing with his former teammates.

There's a good chance the Cowboys and Eagles will both show up for their Nov. 1 game with 5-2 records.

» NFC Final Word: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Posted by ESPN.com's Matt Mosley

Five nuggets of knowledge about Week 7.

	Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
	The Cowboys will need to pressure Atlanta's Matt Ryan on Sunday.

Are the Cowboys interested in joining the division race? They gained ground on the Giants and Eagles by sitting out last weekend. Now, they'll host a very talented Atlanta team. I think offensive coordinator Jason Garrett has to commit to the running game early in this game and give this huge offensive line a chance to lean on the smaller Falcons' front. I'll be very interested to see how the Cowboys divide the carries with Marion Barber, Tashard Choice and Felix Jones. If Jones breaks a big play early in the game, there will be the temptation to keep going to him. I think the Cowboys need to be careful with Jones until he proves that he can stay in the lineup for a few games. I think it's imperative that the Cowboys get off to a strong start. Coach Wade Phillips is using an Atlanta newspaper headline ("Unstoppable") to motivate his defense to slow down the Falcons' hurry-up offense. But if DeMarcus Ware and Jay Ratliff can't throw Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan out of rhythm early, it could be a long day. Watch the Falcons try to get wide receiver Roddy White in a matchup against Cowboys cornerback Mike Jenkins. That's a very, very bad place for Jenkins to be. And I think the Falcons will try to hit on a deep ball early.

The highly anticipated debut of Skins playcaller Sherm Lewis is upon us. OK, that's probably an overstatement. No one knows what to expect from a guy who hasn't coached in almost five years and isn't familiar with the Redskins' personnel. Redskins owner Dan Snyder and his right-hand man Vinny Cerrato have become one of America's great comedy duos -- and Jim Zorn is their No. 1 prop. I think this game has disaster written all over it for the Skins. The Eagles are coming off a dreadful performance against the Raiders. I think this will look a lot more like the team that made it to the NFC title game. In my mind, the Redskins' only hope is to score on defense. I think Jason Campbell will play well, but there are not many quarterbacks who can overcome this type of adversity.

Does anyone know what happened to the Spread Eagle offense? Andy Reid left Michael Vick and the Wildcat formation against the Raiders. In past weeks, he'd claimed to be saving some things. I have no clue why you wouldn't have pulled out all the stops to escape the Black Hole with a win. Reid gets enamored with his own offensive genius at times. He needs someone on the sideline Sunday reminding him to feed the ball to Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy. At least make the Redskins respect the hint of a running game. And for goodness' sakes, let Vick go out there and do something.

It's weird how we've pretty much buried this Giants-Cardinals game. Before the season, this appeared to be a pretty entertaining matchup. But then the Cardinals have sort of staggered around early in the season and the Giants were hammered by Drew Brees and the Saints. I think Bill Sheridan is going to bring just about everyone in an attempt to get some hits on Kurt Warner. Brees didn't have to worry about a pass-rush. You can't give Warner time to drop back and play catch with Larry Fitzgerald. In fact, I would have Fitzgerald bracketed at all times. The Cards aren't going to run the ball. Try to take Fitzgerald out of the game. That's easier said than done, but I can see the Giants having a big bounce-back game here. But if you let Warner have too much time, he'll treat the Giants like Brees did -- and it wasn't pretty.

First, the Cowboys have to slow down Burner Turner. Cowboys coach Wade Phillips has a healthy respect for Falcons running back Michael Turner, who isn't off to a fast start this season. The Cowboys have to be more disciplined than usual in their run blitzes. I've seen safety Ken Hamlin race right past running backs -- especially when they play for the Ravens. But if you get too aggressive against Turner, he'll make you pay by cutting on a dime. Fortunately, inside linebacker Keith Brooking knows a thing or two about the Falcons' offense. The former Falcons Pro Bowl player will be jacked up for this one -- and it wouldn't surprise me if he ends up with 13 tackles and a sack. He's been one of the biggest positives for the Cowboys. This team has to learn how to defend its new stadium. So far, it doesn't seem like that tough a place to play.

Posted by ESPN.com's Matt Mosley

It looks like ESPN.com's Matthew Berry is cranking up his fantasy football coverage in his latest column. In his current mock draft, Berry has Michael Turner going No. 1 overall and Adrian Peterson No. 2. I wouldn't endorse that particular order, but at least Berry's willing to go out on a limb.

On his love/hate list, he thinks Tony Romo would have excellent value in the fourth or fifth round of a draft -- depending on the size of your league. I guess that means Berry thinks either Roy Williams or Miles Austin will put up solid numbers -- or maybe both.

He also likes the Eagles' LeSean McCoy and the Giants' Domenik Hixon as late-round pickups. And that seems like pretty sound advice to me. The suggestion out of left field was Redskins wide receiver Malcolm Kelly. Berry thinks he'd be a good pickup in a "super-deep league."

So who does Berry "hate" in the NFC East? Giants quarterback Eli Manning and the Giants' defense. Really? I sort of get Manning because he doesn't put up ridiculous numbers like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Romo are capable of. But I think the Giants' D will have a big season in terms of sacks and turnovers. Kenny Phillips is about to have a seven-interception season.

Read Berry's column and let me know what you think.

Posted by ESPN.com's Matt Mosley

	Mark Cunningham/Getty Images
	The Eagles might be better off waiting until the middle rounds to pick a running back. Shonn Greene is one possibility.

As we prepare to finalize the Beast draft board, which oddly enough looks almost exactly like Todd McShay's, something keeps bothering me. Yes, I know that Eagles fans and their local reporters have all but assured us the club will take a running back in the first round, but I'm still not buying it.

Maybe it has something to do with the Eagles not taking a running back in the first round since Keith Byars in 1986. Or perhaps it's the fact they recently gave All-Pro running back Brian Westbrook, a third-round pick in 2002, a long-term extension. I know he turns 30 this September, but it seems a bit premature to start planning his retirement party.

Even the Philadelphia Daily News' esteemed NFL columnist, Paul Domowitch, has issued a running back guarantee in the first round, although the Eagles had two picks at the time. The thought is the Eagles will select either Georgia running back Knowshon Moreno or Ohio State's Chris "Beanie" Wells with that No. 21 overall pick. My response to that is, "Why?"

If you don't think talented running backs grow on trees, you haven't looked around the NFC East lately. Over the last couple seasons, the Giants have had one of the best stable of running backs in the league. Starter Brandon Jacobs was taken in the fourth round out of Southern Illinois. His backup the past two seasons, Derrick Ward, was taken by the Jets in the seventh round in 2004, and he signed a four-year, $17 million contract with Tampa Bay thos offseason. And the man dubbed "Fire" in the Giants' version of "Earth, Wind and Fire," Ahmad Bradshaw, was the 250th pick in the 2007 draft.

The Cowboys are led by feature back Marion Barber (fourth-rounder), and former Georgia Tech star Tashard Choice (fourth round) appears to be an excellent complementary piece to Barber and first-rounder Felix Jones. When you throw in Westbrook, three of the top four running backs in the division were taken in the third round or later.

	NFL.com Video
	An inside look at tight end Brandon Pettigrew from Oklahoma State.

And if we're being too provincial, let's take a look at a team like the San Diego Chargers that has hit on backs like Michael Turner (fifth round) and Darren Sproles (fourth round). I could bring up the ultimate second-day guy in Terrell Davis, but this is starting to feel like overkill. (Priest Holmes anyone?)

So, explain to me again why the Eagles have to take a running back in the first round Saturday? In my mind, it would be a luxury pick, which is OK if you don't have a specific need at any position. But I happen to think the Eagles would be foolish to call Brent Celek their No. 1 tight end and just move on down the road -- especially with a potentially elite player such as Oklahoma State's Brandon Pettigrew sitting there. There, I've said it. I would take Pettigrew before either of the top running backs (Moreno and Wells). You might even be able to trade down a spot or two and still end up with Pettigrew.

In his latest seven-round mock draft, Todd McShay has Wells going to the Chargers at No. 16 overall and Moreno going to the Eagles at No. 21. I think most Eagles fans would be pleased with that result, but I think the Eagles would be better off taking someone like Iowa's Shonn Greene in the third round. Both Moreno and Greene have excellent instincts and would be good fits in the Eagles' zone running game. I've talked to scouts who've said that Wells would be much better suited in a power running game that features more angle blocking. And if you don't like my man Greene, take a look at LeSean McCoy in the second round. I just don't see a huge separation between the first-, second- or third-round running backs. Now if you want to refute some of the things I'm saying, check out this Bob Brookover story in the Philly Inquirer.

Draft Tools • HISTORY: 1967-2008 • ESPNDB: Draft bios • Mock draft machine: Fill out your own mock draft.

Though management hasn't admitted as much, perhaps the Eagles are a little gun shy about waiting on a running back this year because of their recent past. Spending third-round picks on Ryan Moats in 2005 and Tony Hunt in 2007 didn't exactly work out -- and so far the Lorenzo Booker experiment (acquired in a trade) isn't faring much better. Maybe they think it's time to end the 23-year streak of not taking a back in the first round.

In my mind, the Eagles are better off waiting at running back. This time of year, I talk to a lot of scouts. But sometimes it's important to talk to the men who are actually going to coach these players. I wanted to know why running backs seem to have an easier time making the transition to the NFL than other position players -- and why you can find so many of them throughout the draft.

"I think it's because that's where you put your best athletes," said the Jets' new running backs coach, Anthony Lynn. "The running back position is more instinctive than any of the other spots. That's something you can't coach. You either have it or you don't. And for whatever reason, the guys who have it aren't confined to the top of the draft."

If the Eagles stay at No. 21 Saturday, they'll have a decision to make at running back. My suggestion is that they stick to tradition -- and wait.

Posted by ESPN.com's Matt Mosley

As reported by ESPN.com's John Clayton on Monday, Giants running back Derrick Ward has agreed to terms on a four-year, $17 million contract with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Here's what NFC South blogger Pat Yasinskas had to say about the deal.

The Giants had been preparing for this day for a long time, so it came as no surprise. They weren't going to pay Ward $4 million per year -- or even $3 million. And he wanted a chance to start. That will happen in Tampa Bay.

We'll soon know whether Wind (Ward) can be successful without Earth (Brandon Jacobs). I think Ward's a nice back, but he benefited greatly from Jacobs wearing down defenses. Can Ward be a 25-carry guy? Honestly, I don't think that would be a good situation for him. If the Bucs keep him somewhere in the 15-18 carry range, I think he'll be more effective.

Ward should be a nice complement to Earnest Graham. I didn't like his chances going to a team where he had to carry the load, but Ward should fit in nicely with the Bucs. The Giants will simply bump up Fire (Ahmad Bradshaw) to No. 2 in the rotation. He's a dynamic back who wasn't given a lot of opportunities last season. I think Tom Coughlin is excited about seeing what Bradshaw can do in a larger role.

Ralph Vacchiano of the New York Daily News provides some excellent details regarding Ward's recruitment. He apparently scared off some potential suitors by asking for a deal similar to what Jacobs received. And Vacchiano said Ward also brought up Michael Turner's contract with the Falcons.

Tom Rock of Newsday explains that Danny Ware will replace Bradshaw as the No. 3 running back.

Posted by ESPN.com's Matt Mosley

New York Giants (5-1) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-1), 4:15 p.m. ET

Two of the best defenses in the league get together in what could be a Super Bowl preview. Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger takes a lot of sacks, and Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will have a blitz package that keeps him guessing.

It remains to be seen how wide receiver Plaxico Burress will be affected by a sore neck. I don't think it will keep him off the field, but you might see Domenik Hixon get more reps than usual.

Giants defensive tackle Fred Robbins has five sacks on the season, and defensive end Justin Tuck has called him the best lineman on the team. The Giants want to strike quickly with the downfield passing game, and then they'll try to gash the Steelers with Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward.

According to people I've talked to in the organization, Tom Coughlin has been trying to come up with more opportunities for Ahmad Bradshaw. Linebacker Antonio Pierce will rejoin the lineup, but Chase Blackburn proved to be an effective backup. This will be close for three quarters, but the Giants will pull away late. Giants left tackle David Diehl has been banged up this week, but there's no way he'll miss the game. Since the wildcard game in 2006, the Giants have only had one lineman miss a game. That was center Shaun O'Hara missing last season's playoff game against the Bucs.

Dallas Cowboys (4-3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-2), 1 p.m. ET

This is obviously a huge game for the Cowboys. Offensive coordinator Jason Garrett has spent this week tailoring the offense to help Brad Johnson succeed. And no matter what happens, the Cowboys will not abandon the run this week. The Bucs will put eight men in the box, which shouldn't surprise the Cowboys at all.

Wade Phillips has taken over the defensive play calling, and we'll see if that has any effect. The Cowboys have two rookies seeing significant time at cornerback. I fully expect Phillips to try and disguise his blitz packages a lot more in this game. Veteran outside linebacker Greg Ellis has complained about his role in the defense. It will be interesting to see if Phillips frees him up to rush more.

It's imperative for the Cowboys to get off to a fast start in this game. Johnson is not the type of quarterback who can play from behind. The Cowboys' offensive line has to do a much better job of buying Johnson some time. And the Cowboys have to let him dump the ball off to Marion Barber more in this game. There's no excuse for asking him Johnson to throw downfield more than two or three times.

Washington Redskins (5-2) vs. Detroit Lions (0-6), 1 p.m. ET

I know you're tempted to think this is a trap game, but that already happened to the Redskins. The Rams loss made them hungry again. I don't think this game will be close.

The one thing the Redskins don't want to do is wear Clinton Portis out. Giving him 27 carries is too much. He's averaging more carries than any back in football. That can't happen this week. The Redskins will try to run up the score in the first half, and then prepare for a lot of Shaun Alexander in the second half.

And watch what London Fletcher does in this game. If he doesn't go to the Pro Bowl this season, something is seriously wrong. Is this the game that Devin Thomas actually does something in the passing game? I actually think it is.

But my pick to click in this game is tight end Chris Cooley, who will go for about seven catches and 100 yards. Coach Jim Zorn has discovered a gaping hole in the middle of the Lions' defense and he will exploit it with Cooley. Odd prediction of the week: FB Mike Sellers finds the end zone.

Atlanta Falcons (4-2) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (3-3), 1 p.m. ET

Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson wants to confuse Falcons rookie quarterback Matt Ryan at every turn. You might not see six or seven sacks, but Ryan will get hit almost every time he goes back to throw. The Falcons are one of the best rushing teams in the league.

Unless you're the Redskins, though, you can't run on the Eagl
es. Philadelphia wants to make Atlanta one-dimensional early in this game. I don't like Michael Turner's chances against this defense.

Running back Brian Westbrook took full advantage of the bye week and he appears to be fully healthy. Westbrook will make a huge difference, because the offense has looked sluggish without him. Watch the first 15 plays of this game. Those are the ones that are scripted, and for whativer reason, they're the most creative. It will also help to have Kevin Curtis back from his sports hernia injury.

The Eagles have been dreadful in the red zone this season, and that's an area head coach Andy Reid worked on during the bye week. Tight end L.J. Smith was supposed to help in that area this season, but he hasn't done a lot. Quarterback Donovan McNabb will finally be allowed to run a quarterback sneak -- and that will help in the red zone.

Eagles win this game going away. They've been a nightmare for rookie quarterbacks in the past, and I smell a long day coming for Ryan.