NFC East: Philip Rivers

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One thing I have learned in my nearly one full year of running this blog is that everyone is in complete lock-step agreement on how good a quarterback Tony Romo is and on his value to the Dallas Cowboys. Every time I write about Romo, all of the comments are exactly the same, and there is never any dispute about Romo's ability, his worth or his future prospects. We have our share of controversial topics here on the NFC East blog, but when the topic is Romo, no one ever argues or gets upset.

Yeah, right.

Romo's as reliable a lightning-rod topic as this blog has, and hoo boy do I have a doozy for you guys. You might have seen this when it went up Monday afternoon, but it bears a bump this morning: K.C. Joyner has a piece up on the site that says, according to several statistical measures, that Romo is one of the five best quarterbacks in the NFL.

Now, if you're still reading, and you haven't already rushed to the comments section of this post to fight with each other about this, or to K.C.'s Insider post to argue directly with him, I'll give you a little synopsis of the man's points. (And I guess I might as well remind you that K.C. was about the only analyst last summer who was predicting the Giants to win this division, so it's not as though his often-controversial opinions have never been right.)

K.C. tells us that Romo's ranking is based on the following, mainly statistics-based reasons:

-Superior route-depth metrics (tied for fifth last year in yards per pass attempt)

-Low bad-decision rate, or "BDR" (fifth-lowest last year among quarterbacks with at least 175 pass attempts)

-High Total QBR (finished fourth in the NFL in 2011)

-A long history of top-level statistical performance (tied for fifth in NFL history in career yards per pass attempt)

-Ability to raise the level of play of those around him (Romo averaged double-digit yards per attempt to his third and fourth wide receivers in 2011)

-Changing of the elite guard at the quarterback position (i.e. disappointing 2011 seasons from Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger, and injury concerns about Michael Vick and Peyton Manning)

-No signs of letting up (still in his prime and surrounded by big-time offensive weapons)

I think what's interesting is that a lot of these areas in which the numbers show that Romo excels are areas of his game that often fall victim to easy criticism from his detractors. "BDR," for example. K.C. acknowledges that games like the Detroit loss last season contribute to a perception that Romo is a reckless gunslinger, but he says the numbers don't back it up:
BDR is a metric that gauges how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads either to a turnover or a near turnover, like a dropped interception or fumble that is recovered by the offense.

The nine-year track record of this metric shows that a 2 percent or lower BDR is an above-average mark for a dink-and-dunk passer, while gunslinger quarterbacks can take pride in a BDR under 3 percent.

...

As poor as that [Detroit] performance was, Romo still posted a 1.8 percent BDR for the season. That total ranked fifth-best among qualifying quarterbacks (minimum 175 attempts) and is doubly notable because it's quite rare for a risk-taking quarterback to post a BDR under 2 percent.

In the end, though, the issue with Romo remains unchanged. Those who are inclined to dislike him will find plenty of reasons to do so, and will hang their hats on the fact that he's only won one playoff game ever. They'll go back to the botched snap, and the playoff loss to the Giants four years ago, and they'll bellow that he doesn't have what it takes to be great because he hasn't come up big in a big game. And until and unless he does that, no statistical analysis will convince those who don't want to be convinced.

The fact is that Romo is an excellent quarterback who hasn't won yet. And while in this day and age, all that matters to anyone about a quarterback is whether he's ever held the Vince Lombardi trophy up over his head while confetti fluttered down around him, it is in fact possible to be exactly that. Doesn't mean it's fun to be that, but it also doesn't mean Romo's worthless. Two-thirds of the teams in the NFL would trade their current quarterback situation straight-up for the Cowboys' quarterback situation, whether the guy's won or not.
Robert Griffin IIIRonald Martinez/Getty ImagesSome scouts apparently feel that Robert Griffin III is a bit overhyped as the NFL draft nears.

The deed done weeks ago, the Washington Redskins and their fans have had little to do but wait. They know they're going to get a quarterback with the No. 2 pick in the draft later this month. Whether that quarterback is Andrew Luck or, more likely, Robert Griffin III, they believe he has the stuff to be a franchise quarterback -- to provide stability and excellence at the game's most important position for years to come. The Redskins paid a significant price for this -- three first-round picks and a second-round pick -- and since it happened there has been nothing to do about it but wait and anticipate.

What goes on during the anticipation phase? Buyer's remorse would be natural, of course. A feeling of concern. Did we pay too much? What if this doesn't work out? Have we doomed the franchise to two more decades of misery?

Natural questions, to be sure, and in their quiet moments Mike Shanahan & Co. have surely entertained some form of them. But the advice from someone who has been there before tells them not to dwell on what-ifs.

"What you're thinking at the time when it gets done is, 'That's our guy. We were able to accomplish it. Here he comes. Let's go,'" Giants coach Tom Coughlin said last week at the NFL owners meetings. "You've got to have great conviction. You've got to believe in your system. And once the deal is accomplished, there's no looking back."

In 2004, Coughlin's first year as their head coach, the Giants made a similar move up in the draft for a franchise quarterback. After the San Diego Chargers took Eli Manning with the No. 1 pick, the Giants drafted Philip Rivers at No. 4 and traded Rivers, their third-round pick in 2004 and their first-round and fifth-round picks in 2005 to get Manning. Not as steep a price as the Redskins paid the Rams last month, but it was a lot, and at the time (and in the years that followed) there was much debate as to whether it was worth it.

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Eli Manning
James Devaney/WireImageIt's safe to say that the price the Giants paid to nab Eli Manning in the 2004 draft was worth it.
But to hear Coughlin tell it, that debate never happened within the walls of the Giants' team headquarters. All of that debate happened before GM Ernie Accorsi made the deal, and once the deal was made it simply could not continue.

"You make that kind of investment, you'd better have done the research," Coughlin said. "You'd better have made the decision on how he's going to impact your team. And you'd better be prepared, because that young man has got to go through what every other young guy did. This league is tough. People make it very, very hard on that position when you have a young guy taking the snaps. There are things he's going to see that he's never seen in his life -- never even imagined seeing."

Which makes it scary, this business of dealing away big parts of the future in exchange for a kid who has never played an NFL down. It has worked out well for the Giants, obviously, as Manning has led them to two Super Bowl titles in the past five years. If the Giants ever had any doubts early in his career, or in the immediate aftermath of the trade, Manning has erased them all and confined the debate over the worthiness of the trade to ancient history.

What happens with the Redskins and their new quarterback remains to be seen. But it sounds as though Shanahan is already living Coughlin's advice. Asked last week whether it mattered to him which quarterback fell to him at No. 2, Shanahan said no, of course not. They wouldn't have given up what they gave up to get to No. 2 if they weren't convinced that Luck or Griffin could both be what they need. And they wouldn't have made the move if they hadn't already erased all of their doubts about whether it was too much to pay. Franchise quarterback is too important, and the Redskins saw a chance to get one.

"The Super Bowls that I've been involved with, with Steve Young, with the John Elways, both were franchise quarterbacks," Shanahan said. "They can make plays when everything breaks down. And if somebody can do that, then you've got an opportunity, once you get to the playoffs, to do something special. Now, can you still win without one? Sure you can. But you'd better be pretty special."

The teams that don't have franchise quarterbacks spend their existences wandering in search of one. It can consume them, as it has the Redskins for so long. That's why, when it comes down to it, there's really no such thing as overpaying for a chance to get one. Besides, if it doesn't work out, everybody who was in on the decision is going to be working elsewhere anyway. Right, Tom Coughlin?

"You don't ever go down that road, either," Coughlin said. "It's going to work."

That's the mindset the Giants had in 2004, and it's the mindset the Redskins have right now. When you're dealing with stakes and prices this high, there's really no other way to be.

Final Word: NFC East

December, 30, 2011
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» NFC Final Word: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Five nuggets of knowledge about Week 17:

Ware QBs dare not tread: Dallas Cowboys linebacker DeMarcus Ware could become the first player to lead the NFL in sacks in three different seasons, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Ware led the league with 20 sacks in 2008, with 15.5 last season and currently has 18 with one game to go. Minnesota's Jared Allen has 18.5 and Philadelphia Eagles defensive end Jason Babin has 18, so this is a race that's going down to the wire. Of those three, Ware's the one with something to play for Sunday other than the league sack lead.

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Rex Grossman
AP Photo/Evan VucciDespite playing in just 12 games this season, Rex Grossman is tied for the league lead in turnovers with 24.
You take it. No, you take it: The game between the Eagles and the Washington Redskins has a chance to be sloppy. The Eagles are tied with the Buccaneers for the league lead in turnovers with 36. Right behind them are the Redskins, who rank third in the league this year with 34 turnovers. Washington quarterback Rex Grossman, who is tied for the league lead with 19 interceptions in spite of having played just 12 games, is also tied with San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers for the league lead in turnovers with 24.

Romo's signature season: If Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo throws at least one touchdown pass and no interceptions in Sunday night's game against the New York Giants, he will become the sixth player in NFL history, according to ESPN Stats & Info, to throw at least 30 touchdown passes and fewer than 10 interceptions in the same season. Aaron Rodgers did it in 2009 and will again this year unless he throws four interceptions Sunday. Tom Brady did it in 2007 and 2010. Brett Favre turned the trick in 2009, Peyton Manning in 2006 and Donovan McNabb in 2004.

Eagles history: Babin enters the game with an outside shot at Reggie White's team record of 21 sacks, set in 1987. Babin had three sacks each in his Week 14 and Week 15 games, so it's not out of the question that he could get three here against the banged-up Redskins line and match White's record. The Eagles will be playing hard, as LeSean McCoy has an outside shot at the league rushing title and the team is trying to stave off what would be just the third losing season in Andy Reid's 13-year tenure as its head coach.

Holding on when it counts: The Giants' receivers have had an issue with dropped passes this year. They are tied for the league lead with 31 drops. But according to ESPN Stats & Information's "Next Level" numbers, 23 of those 31 drops have come in the first half of games. Their 23 first-half drops are five more than any other team has this year, but 22 teams have more than the eight drops the Giants have in the second half or overtime. So the Giants' passing game does seem to correct itself as the game goes along. Those same "Next Level" stats say Giants quarterback Eli Manning was 4-for-11 with 8.6 yards per attempt when the Cowboys sent five or more pass-rushers in the first half of the Week 14 game in Dallas, but he was 8-for-11 with 12.7 yards per attempt and a touchdown against Dallas blitzes in the second half of that game.

Final Word: NFC East

December, 2, 2011
12/02/11
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» NFC Final Word: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Five nuggets of knowledge about Week 13:

Stoppable force, movable object: The Jets have gone three games in a row without intercepting a pass, but they should get their chance Sunday against the Washington Redskins. Washington quarterback Rex Grossman has thrown at least one interception in seven consecutive games, and according to ESPN Stats & Information, "his 14 interceptions on 270 attempts is the highest percentage by a qualifying QB this season." The percentage is 5.2. Deposed Denver quarterback Kyle Orton, now with the Chiefs, is second at 4.5. Philip Rivers of San Diego is third at 4.1. Rex is in a class by himself here.

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Tony Romo
Matthew Emmons/US PresswireIt was another November to smile about for Tony Romo and Dallas.
Streaking Cows: The Dallas Cowboys have won four games in a row. Should they beat Arizona on Sunday, it would be their first five-game winning streak since 2007, when they had two separate streaks of at least that length -- a five-gamer to start the season and a seven-game winning streak from Weeks 7-14. The four-game November win streak is no surprise, since the Cowboys are 19-2 in Novembers with Tony Romo as their quarterback. He is, as you've no doubt heard, a more pedestrian 8-10 in December. His most recent December was a good one, as he led the Cowboys to a division title and a victory against then-undefeated New Orleans in that season's stretch run. Romo was injured last December and did not play.

Going deep in Big D: According to ESPN Stats & Information, Romo has six touchdown passes in the past four weeks on throws at least 15 yards long. That's the highest total in the league during that stretch. The Arizona defense Romo will face Sunday has allowed the second-most touchdown passes of that length this season (7) and the sixth-highest completion percentage on throws of 15 or more yards this season (47.6 percent).

Hookups: The game between the New York Giants and the Green Bay Packers will feature two of the best quarterback/receiver combinations on deep passes in the league. Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers is 8-for-11 this year when targeting receiver Jordy Nelson 21 or more yards down the field, according to Stats & Info. That's the highest percentage (72.7) in the league for a quarterback/receiver combo with at least 10 such attempts. The Giants' Eli Manning and Victor Cruz rank third on the same list, as Manning is 9-for-14 (64.3 percent) with four touchdowns when targeting Cruz at least 21 yards downfield.

Bizarre historical domination note: The Redskins are 8-1 all-time against the Jets. Sunday will be the 10th time these teams have faced each other in 40 years. (By contrast, the Colts and Patriots meet Sunday for the ninth year in a row.) The last time these teams played each other was Nov. 4 2007, when Shaun Suisham's fifth field goal of the game gave Washington a 23-20 victory in overtime. Clinton Portis rushed for 196 yards for Washington in that game. Kellen Clemens was the Jets' starting quarterback. Washington has beaten the Jets four times in a row. The only Jets victory in the head-to-head series was a 3-0 victory on Dec. 11, 1993. In what had to be one of the worst games in NFL history, Cary Blanchard kicked a first-quarter field goal and no one scored the rest of the way. Jets quarterback Boomer Esiason and Redskins quarterbacks Rich Gannon and Mark Rypien combined for 184 passing yards. Ideally, Sunday's game will be better.

Observation deck: Cowboys-Chargers

August, 21, 2011
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Thoughts from the Cowboys' 20-7 preseason loss to the visiting Chargers.

Defense is what matters for the Dallas Cowboys. Defense is what killed them in 2010, and defense will determine whether or not they can rebound and return to playoff contention in 2011. And so, when you tune in to watch a Cowboys preseason game, you're going to watch the defense. And it is, as we mentioned in Camp Confidential, a work in progress.

New defensive coordinator Rob Ryan's defense is based on multiple and varied looks. It's intended to confuse the opposing offense, but before it can do that, the players playing the defense must learn the scheme and develop trust and confidence in it. Since the lockout eliminated OTAs and minicamps, the Cowboys couldn't start practicing their roles in Ryan's new scheme until a couple of weeks ago, and the lack of experience in the new system has shown in both of their preseason games so far.

The best example was Randy McMichael's touchdown catch from Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers. The Cowboys' pass rush had Rivers cold and he looked as though he was about to throw the ball away. But because cornerback Alan Ball and safety Gerald Sensabaugh had both gone after the same receiver, McMichael was wide open. Rivers saw him and found him for the touchdown, and Ryan had something to say to Sensabaugh when he came off the field.

There were good things that happened, too. Barry Church had an excellent game, knocking down a touchdown pass in the first half and making a great open-field tackle in the third quarter. And Ryan lined top linebacker DeMarcus Ware in several different spots -- left side, right side, dropped him into pass coverage. As a coordinator, Ryan's never had a player as good as Ware, and he's going to have more and more fun with him as everybody gets comfortable in the new system and he can keep moving Ware (and others) all over the field into unexpected spots.

But the question is how soon that will be. Can this Cowboys team learn and become comfortable in this new system in just two more preseason games and three more weeks of practice? There are still communication issues in the secondary, and injured starting cornerbacks Mike Jenkins and Terence Newman haven't even played yet, so there's no way to even know if they'll be good enough to allow Ryan to do what he wants to do up front. Long way to go before the Cowboys' defense looks like a cohesive unit, and they don't have a lot of time.

Here are some other things I saw in the loss to San Diego:

1. The first-team offensive line looked good. Especially rookie right tackle Tyron Smith, who is big and strong and athletic and just looks like a nightmare to try and get past. They've been working with Smith on his footwork, specifically the alignment of his left foot, and it's a matter of him getting comfortable with the new foot position and trusting it. He looked better and protecting the outside Sunday night than he had in the first game. Fellow rookie Bill Nagy got the start at left guard and handled himself well, but he gets overpowered by stronger defensive linemen, as rookie David Arkin did a bit last week. If everyone's healthy (including starting center Andre Gurode), I still think either Montrae Holland or Phil Costa starts at left guard three weeks from now in New York. But Nagy and Arkin will still get opportunities in the meantime to show what they can do, and there are plenty of reasons to like both -- for the near future, if not immediately. You can always build strength.

2. I don't have anything, really, to say on Tony Romo. Yes, his interception was terrible -- terrible decision, terrible throw, terrible all the way around. But from the Twitter reaction you'd have thought it was his 700th consecutive pass attempt that resulted in an interception. His touchdown pass was a very good throw, and while it seems clear that those who don't like Romo will always be looking for reasons to point and shout, "See? Told ya!", he has offered no reason to worry and remains very low on the Cowboys' list of concerns.

3. Lonyae Miller and Phillip Tanner. With Tashard Choice and DeMarco Murray injured, the younger running backs on the Cowboys roster have had a chance to show their stuff. Miller looked good early, and the block he threw against the blitz early in the third quarter will show up on his personal highlight film. But his fumble will not, and fumbles can kill a fringe guy's chances of making the team. Tanner struggled in pass protection last week, but he looks like a better runner than Miller does. I don't think any defenders let up on the play after he lost his helmet on the touchdown that got called back, so on tape that's going to show up as a tough touchdown run. Difficult call, if it comes down to two of these guys for one spot, or if they're looking to see whether or not one can unseat Choice.

4. Oh, and the starting running back. Felix Jones, for the second week in a row... wow. Fast, tough and resilient. Guy is moving up those fantasy draft boards, I guarantee. He's running like he means it. His teammates like the spark he brings. He's seeing the field and his lanes from the backfield, and he's working for extra yards against a very good defense in a game that doesn't count. Everything you'd want to see out of Jones when presented with a chance to be the every-down guy, he's showing. My only concern? He's taking a lot of hits, and hasn't exactly shown himself to be Mr. Durable in the past. If he can hold up, he's got a chance to bring something special.

5. The No. 3 receiver issue. If it's Kevin Ogletree's job to lose, he didn't do anything to lose it Sunday. He looked very speedy and very determined, and we didn't see any of the Dwayne Harris magic we saw last year. Manuel Johnson was the down-the-roster receiver who made the strongest second-half impression with Stephen McGee under center. Which is probably another reason for Ogletree to feel good about things.

6. No blood in the kicking battle. Neither Dan Bailey nor David Buehler got a field goal attempt, and I'm not sure I get why neither got one in the final minute. Is it more important right now for the Cowboys to see these guys kick or see if their third-team offense can get in on fourth-and-goal? I guess you could say a 20-yard field goal would be a poor indicator anyway, but still. Why not put one of the kickers in a real game situation if you can?

7. Finally, I'm a little bit surprised by the choice of James Spader for "The Office." My hope is that it allows the very funny people that populate the rest of the cast to shine now that they don't all have to orbit Steve Carell.

When we last left our heroes, things were looking a little better on the NFL labor front, with the sides negotiating until all hours late last week and promising to resume talking after the holiday weekend. Those who were hoping to spend their Fourth of July celebrating the end of the lockout, however, were disappointed. There's still about a week or so left until they have to start thinking about canceling preseason games, and the recent round of serious talks leads one to believe there's reason to hope it can get done by then, but until it is, it's important to remember that these things are difficult and fragile and you never know who's going to jump in at the last minute and try to muck it all up.

In the meantime, a new week dawns, and with it the links.

Dallas Cowboys

In what some will surely interpret as a decent sign, the Cowboys have tentatively set their training camp schedule for the Alamodome in San Antonio. They'd begin July 29. Of course, this story makes it clear that the date and location are "tentative," and that the fallback plan of moving training camp to the Valley Ranch practice facility remains in place. But hey, hope away.

Apparently, if you were at this beach near Sean Payton's house in Florida over the weekend, you could have watched Tony Romo, Jason Witten, Troy Aikman and others play beach football with the Saints' head coach. Payton said he had to sub in for Romo because Romo was struggling a bit at quarterback. Go ahead and run with that, Cowboys fans.

New York Giants

Paul Schwartz of the New York Post gives a little rundown of the Giants' free agency situation as it pertains to their own players. Paul thinks they'll keep Mathias Kiwanuka, Steve Smith, Ahmad Bradshaw (and Brandon Jacobs, by the way, though he says Jacobs' salary "might have to be downsized," and I wonder how simple that will be) and Kevin Boss, but that they "won't put up a big fight to keep" Barry Cofield. Sounds like a lot, especially if they intend to hit the linebacker market too. But Paul raises good points about the ways in which Kiwanuka's neck and Smith's knee have affected their situations and could lead to their signing shorter-term, sensible deals to stay in New York.

Chargers GM A.J. Smith still seems bitter about the 2004 draft and the circumstances that led to his drafting Eli Manning first overall and immediately trading him for Philip Rivers. Smith told The Sporting News that he'd rather have Rivers than Manning and called Manning "a bar of gold" and that the "45 minutes" he spent as a Charger were "too long."

Philadelphia Eagles

Jeff McLane of the Philadelphia Inquirer offers a step-by-step guide to the Eagles' post-lockout priorities. After the obvious (trading Kevin Kolb), Jeff thinks they need to address the cornerback position first (though he thinks the price for Nnamdi Asomugha will be "too steep") and get some defensive line help.

A Pro Football Focus study ranks Trent Cole as the top 4-3 defensive end in the entire league. Yeah, one spot ahead of Dwight Freeney, four spots ahead of Julius Peppers and five ahead of Justin Tuck. "He gets credit for his pass rushing, but, interestingly, he may be stronger in run defense -- where he has finished with our highest grade in each of the past two years," the site writes. "That's certainly not a slight to his pass rushing ability in that time, where only three defenders have accumulated more total quarterback disruptions."

Washington Redskins

Washington Post columnist Jason Reid has some pretty harsh criticism for Mike Shanahan and the job he did in his first year in Washington. Jason's conclusion in this column is that Shanahan needs to do pretty much everything differently in Year 2 than he did in Year 1 in order for his time as Redskins coach to have a chance to succeed. Jason also warns against wasting any more time with Donovan McNabb and Albert Haynesworth on the roster, and he believes Shanahan deserves a fair amount of blame for the collapse of those two situations. I'm with him on McNabb, but while I don't think Shanahan necessarily made every right move when it came to Haynesworth, I blame the player pretty close to 100 percent for that situation.

Santana Moss said on the radio that, once the lockout ends, he'd like the Redskins to sign him "real quick." Yes, Santana, we're all very impatient.

Anyway, welcome to your Tuesday-that-feels-like-a-Monday. Don't forget (as I did the last time we had one of these Tuesdays) that we will chat today at noon. And while our series on free agency came to a conclusion Friday, I still plan to have plenty of goodies for you today and throughout the short week.
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Tom Brady or Peyton Manning? It's the debate of the moment in today's NFL. Which superstar quarterback is the best? Who, between that pair of excellent, future Hall of Fame signal-callers, would you pick if you had the choice? That's not the question that was asked of our Power Rankings panel this week, but it turned out to be the one we answered.

Yes, after weeks upon weeks of power-ranking everything we could think of in the NFL, we've decided to throw all qualifiers and designations out the window and make it very simple: Who are the best players in the league?

As was the case when our panel was asked to rank the league's top quarterbacks, Brady beat out Manning for the top spot in this week's power rankings. Six of the eight NFL bloggers polled ranked Brady No. 1 overall, and the two who didn't -- Mike Sando and Paul Kuharsky -- ranked him second behind Manning. The top four players in our rankings and seven of the top 10 (of the top 11, technically, since Michael Vick and Andre Johnson tied for the No. 10 spot) all play the same position -- quarterback -- which says a lot about the way we value that position.

"Quarterback is the most significant position on the field and can make the difference between a lopsided losing record and the playoffs," said AFC East blogger Tim Graham, whose ballot had quarterbacks in each of the first seven spots and eight of 10 overall. "It takes a truly special running back or defensive player to outweigh the importance of a quarterback. For example, Adrian Peterson is a sensational player. But without Brett Favre producing at quarterback, Peterson couldn't carry the Vikings to the playoffs."

So the question then became which quarterback was the best. The debate these days seems to be squarely between Manning and Brady, though two of our eight bloggers did rank Manning third on this week's list. We'll get to them in a minute. We'll start with the majority opinion -- that Brady is the best player in the league right now.


I was one of the six who ranked Brady in the top spot, and the main reason was that I think Brady has attained a level of excellence in New England that's beyond what Manning has been able to attain in Indianapolis. Brady's accomplishments in 2007, when he combined with Randy Moss to set all kinds of offensive records and went undefeated until losing the Super Bowl to the Giants, were all-time legendary. But what people may not realize (perhaps because of the ludicrous level at which Brady excelled that year) is that the past two seasons have been the second-best and third-best statistical seasons of Brady's career. If Brady hadn't hurt his knee in the first game of the 2008 season and missed the rest of that year, it's very possible he would be on the kind of run right now that would make a Brady-Manning debate seem silly.

After the Patriots traded Randy Moss in the middle of 2010, the question was whether they were giving up on the season. What they were doing instead was committing to a midseason overhaul of the offense that wouldn't have been possible without the confidence they had in Brady to manage it. All Brady did was muster the second-best completion percentage and second-highest touchdown-pass total of his career while throwing just four interceptions and winning at least 14 games for the fourth time.

Not everybody agreed, however.

"Manning is simply asked to do more than any player in the league is asked to do," Kuharsky said. "He's superb at it. I love Brady. But Manning can do more, is asked to do more, and has to do more. Jim Caldwell is an OK coach so far. Bill Belichick is an all-time great. The guy making up the gap in order to have the Colts stay in range of the Patriots is Manning."

But the Colts really weren't in range of the Patriots this year, and for that reason Manning's star has dimmed in the eyes of a couple of our panelists. NFC North blogger Kevin Seifert ranked Aaron Rodgers No. 2 and Manning No. 3. And NFC South blogger Pat Yasinskas ranked Saints quarterback Drew Brees in that No. 2 spot ahead of Manning.

"I'm not trying to diminish Peyton in any way. He's going to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. But, if you look at his numbers and Brees' numbers over the last three or four years, they're similar and, in some ways, Brees' numbers are better," Yasinskas said. "Brees and Manning each have won one Super Bowl title. My argument is that, right now, Brees is even more valuable to the Saints than Manning is to the Colts. Times change and circumstances change. But right now I think Brees is the perfect quarterback for the Saints and is in the perfect situation with their offensive system and coaching staff. In fact, I considered voting for Brees No. 1 overall, but couldn't quite bring myself to rank him ahead of Tom Brady."

Steelers safety Troy Polamalu, who came in first in the defensive player power rankings, ranked fifth on the overall list. AFC North blogger James Walker ranked Polamalu fourth, and Seifert ranked him fifth. Walker's ballot was the most generous overall to defensive players, as he ranked Polamalu fourth, Cowboys pass rusher DeMarcus Ware fifth, Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis eighth and 49ers linebacker Patrick Willis ninth.

Walker and Kuharsky (who ranked him 10th) were the only ones who ranked Ware at all, and Kuharsky seemed a little chapped about it.

"If we rate these quarterbacks so highly, how can we not rate the guy we said was tops at disrupting quarterbacks highly too," Paul asked. "Makes no sense. I had him too low at 10. For six of you guys to leave him off entirely dents your collective credibility. Next I imagine you'll say the E Street Band isn't the all-time best backing band."

Paul is grouchy.

"I value pass-rushers, and no player has more sacks the past two seasons than DeMarcus Ware (26.5)," Walker said. "Getting to the quarterback is the best way to combat the league's increasing number of pass-happy offenses, and no one does it better right now than Ware."

The highest-ranked offensive player who wasn't a quarterback was Peterson, who came in sixth after being named on five of eight ballots. Sando, Walker and AFC West blogger Bill Williamson left the Minnesota running back off their ballots -- the third time in three tries that Williamson has ranked Peterson lower than most of the rest of us did.

"This is a quarterback league and that's how I built my top 10," Williamson explained. "There were only three non-quarterbacks on my top 10. After I constructed the quarterback rankings, I went to the best available non-quarterbacks, and the list was quite short. But to reiterate, this is the top 10. The best of the best. I think Peterson is probably a top-15 guy and that’s pretty good in a league of 1,800-plus professionals."

Pretty good indeed. But as Bill said, it's a quarterback league. And for that reason, the debate about the best player in the league came down, once again, to Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady.

Good morning, friends. I was away for a couple of days. Osi and Shady still fighting? That might be a good Fired-Up Friday topic this week: Which two NFC East players would you most like to see fight, either on Twitter or in real life? "Twitter gangster." That's still making me laugh.

Anyway, new week, new links:

Dallas Cowboys

We're not the only ones who like to do the rankings/comparisons thing during this lockout-imposed downtime. The DCFanatics blog was mulling the relative rankings of Chargers QB Philip Rivers and the Cowboys' Tony Romo in the NFL Network's player-voted top 100 and tweeted receiver Patrick Crayton (who's played with both) to ask him who's the better team leader. Crayton's response was what you'd expect, since he's a current teammate of Rivers' and since this isn't really a close call. I've said a few times here that I put Romo in or right on the edge of the top 10 QBs in the league. But Rivers is top five, and right now I don't see any comparison. Good for DCF, though, for thinking to ask someone with firsthand knowledge.

And while we're on the topic of the NFL Network's list, Nick Eatman muses on the idea that the Cowboys' most-talented player might not even be on it.

New York Giants

The Osi Umenyiora stuff still had some legs Friday night and into Saturday, and Ralph Vacchiano drew an interesting comparison to past Giants malcontent Jeremy Shockey while raising the specter of a Umenyiora holdout. I'm interested (as Ralph apparently is) to see how far Umenyiora wants to push this. Because when things have flared up with him in recent years, they've been able to talk to him and mellow him out before it became a real problem. Right now, his GM and his coaches can't talk to him. So all he can do is stew and talk to the media. By the time there's anything resembling a Giants training camp, this could be a pretty serious brush fire.

If you still care at all about Tiki Barber, you can apparently catch an interview with him Tuesday night on "Real Sports" on HBO. You'll have to tell me how it was. "He now needs football more than it needs him?" No kidding.

Philadelphia Eagles

Mark Eckel says the key to the Eagles' 2011 season will be the offensive line. Specifically, he says the season will be determined by new line coach Howard Mudd and guard Todd Herremans. And he wonders if the Eagles would be better off moving Herremans to right tackle, where uncertainty surrounds the Winston Justice/King Dunlap combo. I got nothing on this. Your thoughts?

And a Michael Vick autograph signing in New Jersey brought into focus once again two the unavoidable truth about Vick: There are people who will never forgive him for what he did, and people who just don't care anymore because he's so good at football. I'm not big into extremes either way, and this I guess is kind of why. There's more nuance to the Vick story than most people want to bother with. Most people, it seems, aren't really into nuance.

Washington Redskins

Bruce Allen says he'd trade for Donovan McNabb again. This seems foolish to me, and not just because McNabb is already on the team. (bah-dum-bump!) Seriously, though, I don't see what's so bad about saying, "Hey, it looked like a good move at the time and it didn't work out." Guess maybe they need to maintain some shred of leverage in negotiations when the lockout ends and they need to trade him, but I don't think they're kidding anybody.

I got a kick out of the idea that LaVar Arrington devoted a portion of his DC-area radio show last week to disputing his placement on Redskins.com's list of the top five Redskins draft picks of the 2000s. Here is the writer's defense of that ranking, which seems very logical. I just happen to like LaVar a great deal personally and wish I'd been listening when he was arguing for his right to the top spot.

Enjoy these tasty morning morsels to get a new week off to the right kind of start here on the NFC East blog, and I promise I'll be back soon with much, much more.

Are Romo and Manning 'elite' quarterbacks?

January, 5, 2011
1/05/11
12:20
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ESPN.com's John "The Professor" Clayton went to the trouble of ranking the starting quarterbacks in the league this week. After Michael Vick's breakout performance this season, I expected him to easily be in the top five. But Clayton has him at No. 8 on the list behind Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan. It's also interesting that Tony Romo of the Dallas Cowboys is No. 9 overall.

Clayton believes that Romo and the Giants' Eli Manning both belong in the "elite" category. What's his definition of elite?

"These quarterbacks complete better than 60 percent of their passes, have 4,000-yard passing potential and demonstrate fourth-quarter comeback ability. These players can carry a team to the playoffs," writes Clayton.

Clayton included 12 quarterbacks in his "Elite Division." How many elite quarterbacks do you think are in the league right now?

I would probably say seven. Anxious to hear your thoughts.

Michael Vick at No. 3 on MVP Watch

November, 17, 2010
11/17/10
1:45
PM ET
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Michael Vick has surged to No. 3 on Mike Sando's prestigious MVP Watch on ESPN.com. Vick had been on the list earlier in the season, but he dropped off following his rib cartilage injury against the Washington Redskins. Sando doesn't think Vick's relatively low number of snaps this season due to injury will hurt his candidacy in the end:

"Every other player in the league with more than two TD passes has also thrown an interception," writes Sando. "Every other player with more than six TD passes has at least three picks. Vick has 11 TD passes, no interceptions and the highest passer rating in the league.

"Have you seen Vick throw the football? I'm not sure NASA could engineer a device capable of producing tighter spirals on intermediate and deep passes. Have you seen Vick run the football? Vick has 40 fewer rushing yards than Marshawn Lynch. He has run for more first downs than Ricky Williams, Shonn Greene or LeGarrette Blount. He has five runs of at least 20 yards, same as Adrian Peterson and more than Jackson, Jones-Drew or Peyton Hillis."

If Vick leads the Eagles to win over the Giants on Sunday, look for him to challenge Tom Brady for the top spot in Sando's MVP Watch. I would've already moved him past Philip Rivers simply based on the Eagles' 6-3 record. Even Giants coach Tom Coughlin admitted Wednesday that he put his pencil down during Monday's game and became "a fan" as he watched Vick's remarkable performance.

Eli Manning shows up on MVP Watch

November, 11, 2010
11/11/10
10:49
AM ET
Both Ahmad Bradshaw and Hakeem Nicks have appeared on NFC West blogger Mike Sando's famous MVP Watch in recent weeks, but now it's time for Eli Manning to climb the charts. Manning shows up at No. 7 on this quarterback-heavy list. Only Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, Joe Flacco and Tom Brady stand in his way right now.

My only argument with Sando's list is that Peyton was allowed to stay at No. 1 following his mediocre performance in Sunday's 26-24 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Here's what Sando wrote about Eli:
"The Giants QB trails only Rivers and Brees in TD passes this season. Five consecutive Giants victories and three consecutive games with a rating in triple digits push Manning into the MVP conversation."

Sando moved Oakland running back Darren McFadden into the No. 9 spot on his MVP Watch, but I think Bradshaw's had the better overall season. If he has a big day Sunday against an injury-depleted Cowboys defensive line, he'll likely return to one of the most exclusive tops 10s in all of sports.

Wednesday NFC Beastlines

October, 6, 2010
10/06/10
10:50
AM ET
Let's take a quick spin around the division while we await first pitch of Rangers-Rays:

Cowboys
Eagles
Giants
Redskins
  • Matt Terl, the author of Redskins Blog, has an excellent report on the third annual All-Star Survivors Luncheon. Chris Cooley and Derrick Dockery are to be commended for their leadership roles in an event tailored to help women battling breast cancer. I failed to mention it Sunday, but I thought seeing all the pink shoes and gloves across the league was an awesome way to raise awareness in the fight against breast cancer.

Wrap-up: Chargers 20, Cowboys 17

December, 13, 2009
12/13/09
8:22
PM ET

Chargers head coach Norv Turner served up another painful reminder Sunday that Cowboys owner Jerry Jones made the wrong decision when he chose Wade Phillips over him three years ago. The Chargers remained perfect in December during the Turner era with a 20-17 win over the Cowboys.

With their second consecutive loss in December, the Cowboys fell to 8-5 on the season and they'll have to rally to even make the playoffs. The cushion they created in October and November has vanished. And at the end of the night, they'll either be in a three-way tie for the NFC East lead or trail the Eagles (8-4) by a game.

Either way, the Cowboys are in big trouble as they prepare for a game in New Orleans on Saturday. Tony Romo and Philip Rivers put up similar numbers, but Rivers made big-time throws when it counted. With the game tied at 10, the Cowboys lost outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware to a neck injury. After the All-Pro player was carted off the field, the Chargers faced a third-and-long situation with 90,000 fans roaring. He responded with a perfect pass to Vincent Jackson for 38 yards and then hit tight end Antonio Gates for a touchdown on the next play.

The Cowboys spent most of the first half in Chargers territory but only had three points to show for it. They were stoned on three consecutive plays from the goal line in the second quarter and then Nick Folk missed a 42-yard field goal out of the hold of Romo. The Cowboys found some success on the ground with Marion Barber and Felix Jones, but drives continued to stall.

At this point, it's hard to imagine owner Jerry Jones bringing back Phillips for a fourth season. Jones reacted angrily in his luxury suite late in the game. The Cowboys still have time to rally for a playoff spot but that would require them to win at least two of their next three games.

Since two of those games are in December, I don't see it happening. The only good news to come out of this game is that Ware only has a sprained neck and he's moving his arms and legs.

What's in Mosley's Mailbag?

December, 12, 2009
12/12/09
5:46
PM ET
Let's answer four questions on four teams. You guys have been as prolific as ever. Keep up the good work.

Omar from Oakland, Calif., has some concerns with my recent column suggesting the Cowboys should have hired Norv Turner instead of Wade Phillips: Listen, the Cowboys did not make the wrong decision with Phillips over Turner. Record comparison is comparable with Turner 28-16 and Phillips 30-14. Of course, Turner has won three playoff games to Wade's zero. But here's the thing. Tony Romo is a good quarterback and not a great one. Philips Rivers is the best quarterback in the leauge this side of Manning and Brees. Believe me, the Chargers are winning in spite of Turner. He is a great offensive coordinator and Wade is great defensive coordinator. Neither are great head coaches and never will be, although because of Rivers, Turner may get to a Super Bowl this year while the Cowboys are the fourth or fifth best team at best in the NFC. Bottom line, Turner has Rivers and Wade has Romo. Simply put, no comparison.

Mosley: Could we at least give Turner a little credit for his work with making Rivers one of the top quarterbacks in the league? Turner's recognized as one of the best quarterback gurus (Troy Aikman anyone?) in the game and I think he would've done an unbelievable job with Romo. When you simply talk about skill level, I don't think Rivers is far ahead of Romo -- if at all. But yes, Rivers has three more playoff wins than Romo. Turner has taken quarterbacks such as Brad Johnson and Alex Smith and led them to excellent seasons. Let's not act like he just lucked into a good quarterback. I think Turner's a huge part of Rivers' success and I can't help but think that he would've already helped Romo get at least one playoff win.


Yatin from Los Angeles has a question about Kevin Kolb: Hey Matt, I've tried asking this several times in the chats, but no luck. So I'm giving your mailbag a shot. What do you think Eagles management should do with Kevin Kolb? It's not too different from Favre-Rodgers in that there's a veteran quarterback in Donovan McNabb who is still playing at a high level, but a young talent in Kolb who is not going to be happy sitting forever. While I love Donovan and don't think we should release him, I'm worried we're going to lose our potential quarterback of the future in Kolb.

Mosley: The good thing for the Eagles is that they've now seen that Kolb can perform well in a regular-season game. It wasn't fair to judge the guy on the second half against the Ravens last year. In two games this season, Kolb put up solid numbers and proved that he's a capable backup. My thought is that McNabb will be the starter in 2010 for sure. After that, who knows what will happen? If there's a team out there that thinks of Kolb like the Texans thought of Matt Schaub when he played for the Falcons, then the Eagles will be all ears. But for now, I think Andy Reid still believes that Kolb is the heir apparent to McNabb.


Amari H. from Richmond, Va., doesn't think London Fletcher deserves your Pro Bowl vote: I'm sorry but I couldn't disagree with you more. Although London Fletcher is a really good player, he obviously hasn't stood out enough to be considered a Pro Bowl player. There is no way you can compare his numbers to Ray Lewis'. He may get a similar number of tackles, but if you want to go to the Pro Bowl then you have to be a dynamic linebacker. Ray Lewis, Brian Urlacher and Patrick Willis not only make tackles but they make interceptions, cause fumbles, get sacks, and score touchdowns. They make dynamic plays for their football team. Only two of these guys can get on the Pro Bowl squad and clearly Fletcher hasn't seperated from the pack enough to warrant consideration. This story comes up literally every year and yet still no results. Are you really asking for a handout on behalf of London Fletcher? Right now I got Willis, A.J. Hawk and Keith Brooking ahead of him. And if you can give me any reason to put him ahead of those guys, I am all ears. But can this please be the last time this story comes up. I know he won Super Bowl, I know he's started so many games and I know that he always makes a lot of tackles. But these Redskins players are whining about the Pro Bowl too much.

Mosley: I don't think Peter King would've placed London Fletcher on his all-decade team if he didn't have a little something. No one's looking for handouts, but it is a tremendous slap in the face that Fletcher's never made a Pro Bowl. You brought up forced fumbles and sacks. Well, he's right up there with Lewis in those categories over the past decade. He's also the ultimate leader. I've watched him completely take over football games, so I don't know how you can argue that he's not a dynamic player. He's having another brilliant season at linebacker. This is not some lifetime achievement award we're talking about. He's earned a Pro Bowl trip this season, just like he has for the past six or seven.


Jonathan from Boulder, Colo. has a question about the Giants' O-line: You keep saying in chats and columns that you expect the Giants to change up their O-line in the offseason. After all the success they had last year, what is the difference this year? Who's the weak link and who do you expect to be gone?

Mosley: Last year the offensive line did a nice job of protecting Eli Manning the first 12 or 13 games of the season. This year, the line has given up too many sacks and hasn't done a good job opening up holes in the running game. There are still good players up front -- right guard Chris Snee is one of the best in the league -- but I do think there are changes on the way. For starters, I think David Diehl's days at left tackle are numbered. I think he'd be more effective at left guard. I could also see third-round draft pick Will Beatty pushing Kareem McKenzie at right tackle. It would not surprise me at all to see some of those changes take place this offseason. The Giants' offensive line has had remarkable continuity dating back to the Super Bowl season, but I think changes are on the way.

Final Word: NFC East

December, 11, 2009
12/11/09
4:00
PM ET

» NFC Final Word: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Five nuggets of knowledge about the Week 14.

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Antonio Gates
Harry How/Getty ImagesAntonio Gates poses matchup problems for the Cowboys.
The most disturbing thing to the Giants about their loss in Philly last month was that they were gashed in the running game. They didn't immediately get it fixed but the run defense was excellent in Sunday's 31-24 win over the Cowboys. Defensive tackle Barry Cofield might have played his best game of the season in destroying Cowboys right guard Leonard Davis on several plays. He made himself "skinny" and beat double-teams from Andre Gurode and Davis on a couple of occasions. If the Giants can shut down Leonard Weaver and LeSean McCoy in the early going, they can try to make the Eagles even more one-dimensional than they already are. Brian Westbrook has had some big games against the Giants over the years, but he'll be sidelined because of a concussion. I think you'll see McCoy get at least six or seven touches early in the game. We'll see if the Giants' defensive line can continue to own the line of scrimmage. And keep your eye on Eagles right guard Nick Cole in this game. Everyone talks about left tackle Jason Peters and the rise of right tackle Winston Justice, but it's Cole who's been the glue of this offensive line. He's become a very reliable player and the former New Mexico State standout is about to play himself into a nice contract if he doesn't watch out.

The key for the Cowboys is slowing down Chargers tight end Antonio Gates. The Cowboys did a really nice job against Falcons tight end Tony Gonzalez and they held down the Eagles' talented young tight end Brent Celek for much of the game. But Gates is a different case. He's a master at pushing off without getting called. Quarterback Philip Rivers has a lot of faith that Gates will adjust to balls, so he's not afraid to fling it in his direction. The Cowboys will try to jam Gates near the line of scrimmage with nickel linebacker Bobby Carpenter, which can be good and bad. Gates is athletic enough to get a quick release, so the strategy could backfire on the Cowboys. The Eagles might have had a chance of beating the Chargers if they had anyone who could cover Gates. Instead, he sealed a win over them by beating a defender across the middle. If Gates only ends up with three catches for 24 yards, I think the Cowboys win this game.

If you can't get fired up for Skins-Raiders week, you're a hopeless cause. This is mediocrity at it's best. Actually, you have to hand it to both teams for still playing inspired football after being eliminated from the playoff race several weeks ago. The Redskins will be without cornerback DeAngelo Hall and defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth. Safety LaRon Landry needs to show a little discipline and consider staying back to help when one of Tom Cable's receivers runs his ninth fly pattern of the game. Landry's refusal to play under control has contributed to the Redskins giving up too many big plays. On offense, it will be interesting to see how Devin Thomas reacts to such physical cornerbacks. The Raiders like to stay in man coverage and beat up receivers at the line of scrimmage. Miles Austin made the Raiders pay a few weeks ago for their aggressiveness. I think Thomas can do something similar if he can manage to get some clean releases. Quarterback Jason Campbell will continue his tryout for other teams around the league. He has played some excellent football over the past month. He's ignored the patchwork offensive line in front of him and used his legs to extend plays.

I don't think the Eagles respect the back end of the Giants' defense. I know Aaron Rouse has brought a little stability at safety but he and Michael Johnson could struggle against this group of receivers. DeSean Jackson will use a double move to blow by cornerbacks and safeties. But Jason Avant and Jeremy Maclin can get their catches by going up high and making contested catches. The problem with the Giants' defensive backs is not so much that they're getting burned all the time. They simply do a poor job on those contested balls. Corey Webster was burned for three touchdowns against the Cowboys. He'll end up in a one-on-one situation with Maclin at some point Sunday -- and I don't like that matchup for the Giants. If you're getting dominated by Roy Williams off the line of scrimmage, how are you going to stay with the Eagles' receivers? Maybe Webster will bounce back with an impressive performance, but I do expect the Eagles to go right at him.

If Tony Romo has enough time, he can light up the Chargers' secondary. I think Antonio Cromartie is susceptible to double moves because he's such an aggressive cornerback. And the other corner, Quentin Jammer, is known for playing a little soft. Throw in two nondescript starting safeties and you have the makings of a huge game for Austin and Jason Witten. The Chargers know that they have to hit Romo in the mouth from the start. Shawne Merriman has had his moments this season, but we've also seen teams line up and run right at him. (See Denver.) If the Chargers can collapse the pocket, the Chargers' secondary will have a chance to make some plays. But if Romo has too much time in this game, I think he'll throw for 300 yards and two or three touchdowns. I would not be shocked to see this game turn into a track meet. Two talented quarterbacks and some excellent receivers. I could see a 35-31 game. In fact, that's what I'm hoping for. Have a wonderful football weekend.
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