NFC East: playoff scenarios

NFC East playoff scenarios refresher

December, 30, 2012
12/30/12
8:00
AM ET
Eli Manning,  Robert Griffin III and Tony RomoUS PresswireEli Manning, left, and the Giants need help; Robert Griffin III and Tony Romo control their fates.


By the end of this day, the Washington Redskins or the Dallas Cowboys will be NFC East champions. If the Redskins are the champs, and three other games break the right way, the New York Giants can make the playoffs as a wild-card team but the Cowboys cannot. If the Cowboys are the champs, and two other games break the right way, the Redskins can make the playoffs as a wild-card team but the Giants cannot.

It'll all be resolved soon enough, but the playoff scenarios for the three NFC East teams that still have a chance remain complicated enough to warrant a refresher explanation. So here's the breakdown of what has to happen today to get your team in, whichever team that may be.

The basics:

  • Tonight's game between Cowboys and Redskins at FedEx Field will determine the NFC East champion. Whoever wins that game will win the division and be the No. 4 seed in the NFC playoffs.
  • The Redskins could still make the playoffs as a wild-card team if they lose to the Cowboys and get help elsewhere.
  • The Cowboys cannot make the playoffs as a wild-card team. They will either be division champions or miss the playoffs.
  • The Giants cannot win the division but can make the playoffs as a wild-card team if they beat the Philadelphia Eagles and get help.
  • Any NFC East team that reaches the playoffs would play either the Seahawks or the 49ers in the first round.
And here's a more in-depth explanation of the whole thing:

If the Redskins beat the Cowboys, the Redskins will be 10-6, the Cowboys will be 8-8 and the Giants will be no better than 9-7, so no tiebreakers come into play. The Redskins win the NFC East outright.

If the Cowboys beat the Redskins, the Redskins and the Cowboys will both be 9-7, and the Giants will be no better than 9-7. The Giants would be eliminated from a three-team tiebreaker because they would be 3-3 in the division and the other two teams would be 4-2. The Cowboys would then win with the two-way tiebreaker by virtue of their superior record in games played against common opponents -- teams they and the Redskins both played. The Cowboys are 8-4 in those games, with victories the Redskins couldn't get over the Bengals, Steelers and Panthers, while the Redskins are 7-5. Common-opponents record is the No. 3 tiebreaker in two-way ties, after head-to-head record (Cowboys and Redskins would be 1-1 against each other) and division record (they'd both be 4-2 in the division).

If the Redskins lose, they can still be a wild-card team if the Vikings lose to the Packers and the Bears lose in Detroit. Those games will be completed by the time the Redskins and the Cowboys kick off at 8:20 p.m. ET, so the Redskins will know before they take the field whether they still have the safety net of the wild card or whether they need to win the division to reach the playoffs.

If the Giants beat the Eagles, they would need the Cowboys, Vikings and Bears all to lose in order to reach the playoffs as a wild-card team. So if the Giants win their game at 1 p.m. ET while the Lions beat the Bears and then the Packers beat the Vikings in their 4:25 pm ET game, the Giants will watch the prime-time game needing the Redskins to win it. If any of those four games breaks the wrong way, the Giants are out. So Giants fans need the Giants, Lions, Packers and Redskins all to win.

The NFC East champion will be the No. 4 seed in the NFC and will host a first-round game against the No. 5 seed, which will be either the Seahawks or the 49ers. The Seahawks are the more likely opponent. They will be the No. 5 seed unless they beat the Rams and the 49ers lose to the Cardinals today. But if those two results happen, the Seahawks will win the NFC West and the 49ers will be the No. 5 seed and visit the NFC East champion on Saturday or Sunday for a first-round playoff game.

If the Redskins or Giants end up with a wild-card berth, they will be the No. 6 seed in the NFC and will play on the road in the first round against the No. 3 seed in either San Francisco or Seattle. If the Packers win their game today, they are the No. 2 seed and get a bye, which means the No. 3 seed would be the NFC West champion (see above) and host the sixth-seeded wild-card team, which the Giants or Redskins could be. If the Packers lose their game today to the Vikings, they could be the No. 3 seed, but that wouldn't matter for NFC East purposes, because it would mean the Vikings got the final wild-card spot and the only NFC East team going to the playoffs this year will be the Cowboys-Redskins winner.

NFC East playoff scenarios

December, 24, 2012
12/24/12
10:05
AM ET
With one week to go, the playoff scenarios in the NFC East have become somewhat more simplified but remain complex. Here are the basics of what we know, and I'll get into more detail a little bit further down the post.
  • The game Sunday night between the Dallas Cowboys and the Washington Redskins at FedEx Field will determine the NFC East champion. Whoever wins that game will win the division and be the No. 4 seed in the NFC playoffs.
  • The Redskins could still make the playoffs as a wild-card team if they lose to the Cowboys and get help elsewhere.
  • The Cowboys cannot make the playoffs as a wild-card team. They will either be division champions or miss the playoffs.
  • The New York Giants cannot win the division but can make the playoffs as a wild-card team if they beat the Eagles and get help.
You can work a lot of this out yourself with the help of the Playoff Machine. But in case you're like me and you're working today and don't have hours and hours to blow on the Playoff Machine, I've got your scenarios (tiebreaker and otherwise) in traditional form.

If the Redskins beat the Cowboys, the Redskins will be 10-6, the Cowboys will be 8-8 and the Giants will be no better than 9-7, so no tiebreakers come into play. The Redskins win the NFC East outright.

If the Cowboys beat the Redskins, the Redskins and the Cowboys will both be 9-7, and the Giants will be no better than 9-7. The Giants would be eliminated from a three-team tiebreaker because they would be 3-3 in the division and the other two teams would be 4-2. The Cowboys would then win with the two-way tiebreaker by virtue of their superior record in games played against common opponents -- teams they and the Redskins both played. The Cowboys are 8-4 in those games, with victories the Redskins couldn't get over the Bengals, Steelers and Panthers, while the Redskins are 7-5. Common-opponents record is the No. 3 tiebreaker in two-way ties, after head-to-head record (Cowboys and Redskins would be 1-1 against each other) and division record (they'd both be 4-2 in the division).

If the Redskins lose, they can still be a wild-card team if the Vikings lose to the Packers and the Bears lose in Detroit. Those games will be completed by the time the Redskins and the Cowboys kick off at 8:20 p.m. ET, so the Redskins will know before they take the field whether they still ave the safety net of the wild card or whether they need to win the division to reach the playoffs.

If the Giants beat the Eagles, they would need the Cowboys, Vikings and Bears all to lose in order to reach the playoffs as a wild-card team. So if the Giants win their game at 1 p.m. ET while the Lions beat the Bears and then the Packers beat the Vikings later in the day, the Giants will watch the prime-time game needing the Redskins to win it. If any of those four games breaks the wrong way, the Giants are out. So Giants fans need the Giants, Lions, Packers and Redskins all to win. Gonna be tough.

The NFC East champion will be the No. 4 seed in the NFC and will host a first-round game against the No. 5 seed, which will be either the Seahawks or the 49ers. (Most likely the Seahawks.)

If the Redskins or Giants end up with a wild-card berth, they will be the No. 6 seed in the NFC and will play on the road in the first round against the No. 3 seed in either Green Bay, San Francisco or Seattle.

I hope that helps!
In this morning's post about NFC East playoff scenarios, I did not mention the possibility that any of our division's teams might actually be able to clinch anything in Week 16. But we all mull this stuff over and look at all kinds of scenarios all day, just like you guys do. We even use the Playoff Machine. And as we do that, new information and possibilities come to light.

So I'm here to fill you in, with the help of ESPN Stats & Information, on the chances that the Washington Redskins or the New York Giants could clinch playoff spots this week.

The Giants clinch a playoff spot this week if they win and the Cowboys, Redskins, Vikings and Bears all lose. This is because, even though a Week 17 loss by the Giants would cost them the tiebreaker against the Cowboys-Redskins winner for the division title, they'd win tiebreakers over any combination of the Seahawks, Vikings and Bears in the wild-card race.

The Redskins clinch a playoff spot this week if they win and the Giants, Vikings and Bears all lose. That's because, even if they lost to the Cowboys in Week 17 and failed to win the division, they'd win wild-card tiebreakers over any combination of the Seahawks, Giants, Vikings and Bears.

One other note: According to NFL.com, via The Newark Star-Ledger, the Giants could actually be eliminated from playoff contention this week. Here it is.

The Giants are eliminated from playoff contention if they lose, the Redskins and Cowboys win and the Seahawks win or tie. This is because a Giants loss would mean they can win no more than nine games, whereas the Seahawks would have 10 (or nine and a tie) and the winner of the Week 17 Redskins-Cowboys game would be guaranteed to have at least 10.

So, a little bit on the line for the Giants this week, it would seem!

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