NFC North: Minnesota Vikings

Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Minnesota Vikings in 2012.

Dream scenario (9-7): Quarterback Christian Ponder makes a big leap in his second season, spurred in part by confidence in his new offensive line. Ponder makes good use of his two pass-catching tight ends, Kyle Rudolph and John Carlson, and either Jerome Simpson or Greg Childs provides a legitimate downfield threat. Tailback Adrian Peterson (knee) is back to full strength early in the season, if not in Week 1. The Vikings get a big return on overhauling the middle of their defense and aren't hindered by starting one rookie safety (Harrison Smith) and perhaps two (with Robert Blanton). In a tough division, they're thrilled to finish with a winning record.

Nightmare scenario (3-13): The Vikings show no improvement from 2011, giving them a three-year record of 12-36. Ponder's inconsistency raises questions about his future with the franchise. Peterson returns but isn't a dominant runner any longer. The defense implodes because of its inexperience and lack of playmakers in the back end. It's clear the franchise has another year or more to go before matching the rest of the division.
We're Black and Blue All Over:

The vast majority of you pleaded for the continuation of BBAO in responding to last week's suggestion request, so I will of course oblige. The Friday heading into Memorial Day weekend, however, is going to be a bit thin. News is as news does. Or something like that.

On with it ...
  • Rob Demovsky of the Green Bay Press-Gazette covered a public discussion on the early 1990s revival of the Green Bay Packers by Bob Harlan and Ron Wolf. Prior to that point, national media members were suggesting that the team be moved to Milwaukee.
  • The Minneapolis City Council is expected to ratify the Minnesota Vikings' stadium bill formally on Friday, notes Eric Roper of the Star Tribune.
  • Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press: "If Cliff Avril and the Detroit Lions don’t work out a long-term deal this summer, and Avril hits the unrestricted free-agent market next spring, the biggest in-house beneficiary could be Willie Young."
  • Several Lions players, including Young, will compete in a fishing tournament against pro Kevin VanDam on June 12. Chris McCosky of the Detroit News has more.
  • Vaughn McClure of the Chicago Tribune: "Bears linebacker J.T. Thomas likely will be cleared of a misdemeanor drug possession charge before the regular season begins, provided he completes the terms of a deferred sentence."
  • Here is some audio of former NFL tight end Jermaine Wiggins speaking to ESPN 1000 about the Bears' offense under offensive coordinator Mike Tice and how he would handle the Matt Forte contract situation.
And you thought we were done with this silliness.

Out of respect to those of you with stadium fatigue, I've stayed out of the anticlimactic (and little-known) final stage of the Minnesota Vikings' stadium approval process. But for the record, we should remind everyone that the final bill must be approved by the Minneapolis City Council, and further, that two-day process began Thursday.

I'll let Minnesota Public Radio explain the details if you're interested. In essence, the council approved the bill in a preliminary vote, an outcome that has been considered inevitable since a majority of council members pledged support in March.

The final vote will take place Friday and is expected to mirror Thursday's 7-6 decision. Design and construction planning will begin immediately afterward.

Related: Grantland.com's Steve Marsh explains the stadium story through the eyes of a Minnesotan.
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Green Bay Packers fans have loved ESPN's Skip Bayless for years, especially for his analysis of quarterback Aaron Rodgers' play. So I'm sure they'll be thrilled to hear who Skip has picked to win the NFC North in 2012. It's near the end of this video and here's your only hint: ROAR!
First in a series of posts on NFC North rookies who have generated some spring buzz.

One of the most consistent suggestions I received in the wake of last week's request was for more discussion about intriguing rookies, who in many ways represent the first stop of hope and excitement for the upcoming season. So let's start with Minnesota Vikings receiver Greg Childs, a fourth-round pick who has just emerged from an 18-month recovery from a serious knee injury.

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Greg Childs
AP Photo/Genevieve RossGreg Childs insists he has fully recovered from his knee injury.
In October 2010, Childs was projected as one of college football's best NFL receiver prospects before tearing the patella tendon in his right knee. Doctors told him it could take up to a year and a half to recover fully, which would have cost him his final season at Arkansas. Childs decided to play in 2011, but as it turned out, he might have been better off sitting out.

His 21 receptions were less than half of his 2010 total, and he put a season's worth of slow route running and minimal separation on tape for NFL scouts. He wasn't much better at the February scouting combine, running the 40-yard dash in 4.55 seconds, and suddenly one of the best receivers of 2010 was on track to be a mid-round draft choice.

The Vikings were encouraged by a better performance at his pro day; at 6-foot-3 and nearly 220 pounds, Childs ran a 4.41 and hit 41.5 inches on his vertical leap. Many fans are no doubt miffed that the Vikings didn't devote more resources toward upgrading their downfield passing attack, but if Childs is truly recovered from the patella injury, they might well get away with it.

Childs seems quite aware of his opportunity, telling the "Vikings Tonight" radio show that "I definitely have a chip on my shoulder," adding that he wants to "show everyone that I can still be one of the top receivers and that I will be a steal of this draft."

Indeed, draft analyst Matt Waldman -- writing for The New York Times last month -- considered Childs the fifth-best receiver available in the draft. Waldman wrote that Childs' pro day was indicative of a full recovery and "a return to the skills he displayed as a sophomore and junior."

The Vikings really have only one receiver position locked down, and that's wherever Percy Harvin plays. Veteran Michael Jenkins is expected to return from a knee injury, and newcomer Jerome Simpson will add a level of playmaking when he returns from a three-game NFL suspension. But if Childs can run a true 4.4 at his size, it's going to be hard for the Vikings to keep him off the field once he learns the offense.

The Vikings started him off at the traditional "X" receiver spot that Jenkins played last season, but Jenkins is more of a possession receiver and lacks the explosion Childs will have if his recovery is in fact complete.

And listening to Childs, it is.

"I'm not concerned about the knee problem at all," he said. "I'm 100 percent, full throttle, no slowing down."
We're Black and Blue All Over:

It was almost an afterthought amid discussion of quarterback Jay Cutler's new weapons, the weight loss of receiver Johnny Knox and the configuration of the offensive line. But we might as well acknowledge it: Newcomer Michael Bush was the Chicago Bears' first-team tailback during Wednesday's organized team activity as starter Matt Forte stays away from the facility in a contract dispute.

Forte has yet to sign his $7.7 million franchise tag while pushing for a long-term extension. If there is an end in sight to those negotiations, it hasn't been reported publicly. While no one thinks Forte will elect to miss regular-season games, it isn't clear if he'll report for any part of the Bears' offseason program or training camp.

Bush, via Jeff Dickerson of ESPNChicago.com: "Nobody has ever brought up Forte's name or wished he was here or anything to make me feel uncomfortable. But me being me, [I think] Forte needs to come on out so we can get it going. But I know he's got to take care of himself and his family as well."

To be continued.

Now for our morning spin around the division:
video I witnessed a portion of Minnesota Vikings tailback Adrian Peterson's highly motivated rehabilitation from major knee surgery earlier this month at the team's practice facility. ESPN's Josina Anderson visited Peterson in Houston last week, and the message is the same: Peterson intends to play in the Vikings' Week 1 game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, a little more than nine months after surgery.

The team's medical staff has made no such declaration, and it's fair to look back at how former Vikings quarterback Daunte Culpepper's determination to return from his own knee injury in 2006 helped derail his career. That's exactly what I did in this week's Blogger Blitz.
A committee of ESPN experts -- including Trent Dilfer, Mel Kiper, Gary Horton, Matt Williamson -- assembled this offseason to create a unique version of our traditional Power Rankings.

Naturally, NFC North teams are featured prominently in what amounts to a three-year projection of Power Rankings for the 2015 season Insider. The Green Bay Packers received the top spot as the team best equipped to compete three years from now, while the Detroit Lions were not far behind at No. 6.

The file requires an Insider subscription to read in full, but I can pass along where our four teams ranked and also a glimpse at the methodology used. Here is how the committee evaluated each team and the degree of impact each category had:
  • Roster (32.5 percent of total score): Players under 30 emphasized
  • Coaching (20 percent): Capability and stability of current staff
  • Quarterback (17.5 percent): Where quarterback play would be in three years
  • Draft (15 percent): Based on team's 2012 class and how many picks available in next three years.
  • Front office (15 percent): Ability to manage roster and market's attraction to free agents.

Now on to the NFC North rankings with comments from me:

1. Green Bay Packers
Seifert comment:
The presence of a 28-year-old MVP quarterback and one of the NFL's top general manager-coach combinations puts the Packers on an ideal long-term path.

6. Detroit Lions
Seifert comment:
Quarterback Matthew Stafford had a 5,000-yard season before his 24th birthday. That's a nice start. General manager Martin Mayhew has elevated the team's talent level every season of his tenure and most of the Lions' key players -- Stafford, receiver Calvin Johnson, tight end Brandon Pettigrew, defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, safety Louis Delmas and linebacker Stephen Tulloch -- are under 30.

17. Chicago Bears
Seifert comment:
Jay Cutler is a legitimate franchise quarterback, but the best players on the Bears' defense are all over 30. That list includes defensive end Julius Peppers, linebackers Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, and cornerback Charles Tillman.

31. Minnesota Vikings
Seifert comment:
Questions about quarterback Christian Ponder's long-term prospects made it difficult for the committee to project future success. There are also concerns about a lack of young impact players on defense. Defensive end Jared Allen is 30 and linebacker Chad Greenway is 29.

We're Black and Blue All Over:

Chicago Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher confirmed Tuesday night that he isn't likely to participate in organized team activities (OTAs) -- and probably not veteran minicamp, either -- as he rehabilitates a sprained knee suffered in a Week 17 game against the Minnesota Vikings. Urlacher told reporters that he expects to be ready to start training camp, a completely reasonable schedule that nevertheless highlights one of the few holes on the team's roster.

Namely: Who would play for Urlacher if he was injured during the regular season?

According to ESPNChicago.com's Jeff Dickerson, second-year linebacker Dom DeCicco -- an undrafted free agent in 2011 -- will take the majority of snaps during the offseason. If nothing else, the Bears should know at the end of the spring whether DeCicco is capable of filling in for Urlacher in a regular-season environment, or whether they would need to look elsewhere. Finding a long-term replacement for Urlacher, 33, remains one of the most important challenges facing this franchise.

Continuing around the NFC North:
  • Urlacher, via Vaughn McClure of the Chicago Tribune: "It's getting better. I'm on schedule, so I feel good. At this stage, I know the defense pretty well. I'm not worried about being out there and not knowing what I'm doing.''
  • Bears receiver Brandon Marshall on his reunion with quarterback Jay Cutler and quarterbacks coach Jeremy Bates, via Sean Jensen of the Chicago Sun-Times: "That just doesn't happen in sports. You don’t have a Pro Bowl receiver and a Pro Bowl quarterback and one of the most talented minds in football in Jeremy Bates back together. It just doesn't."
  • Mike Freeman of CBSSports.com thinks the Detroit Lions can contend for the Super Bowl -- "[b]ut only if this team can harness what is an amazing lack of self-control. The Lions remain one of the least disciplined teams in football."
  • Bob Wojnowski of the Detroit News: "Dumb stuff happens in football, as in life. But the Lions have too much at stake now to be dealing with it, way too much to gain and way too much to lose. The spate of player incidents -- mostly minor -- is not a sign of a rambunctious team losing its way. But it's a pointed reminder that young talent is unpredictable, and a warning that the Lions' rough edges still need work."
  • Lions cornerback Chris Houston isn't ready to be anyone's mentor, writes the News' Chris McCosky.
  • Lori Nickel of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel covered the MACC Fund charity event in Milwaukee headlined by Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
  • Packers coach Mike McCarthy on his 2012 team, via Mike Vandermause of the Green Bay Press-Gazette: "This is clearly the most experienced football team in conjunction with the most talent that I've had a chance to coach."
  • Tom Oates of the Wisconsin State Journal: "The Green Bay Packers’ all-defense, all-the-time draft has already achieved one of its goals. The six rookie defenders have supplied a jolt of energy for a defense -- and a team -- that might have grown a little complacent after following up its victory in Super Bowl XLV with a 15-1 regular season in 2011."
  • Packers linebacker Clay Matthews on moving to the right side, with rookie Nick Perry taking over on the left side, via Jason Wilde of ESPNMilwaukee.com: "The misnomer about the position is that we're stuck to one side. On paper, it's going to say 'left outside linebacker' or 'right outside linebacker.' Really, those positions are interchangeable, so the faster we can get [Perry] up to speed, the faster we can have some fun moving him around, flying around and making some plays together."
  • Packers defensive end Anthony Hargrove didn't have much to add about his role in the New Orleans Saints' bounty story after Tuesday's OTA, according to Tyler Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
  • The Packers' defensive additions in the draft were "expected" and "necessary," according to linebacker Desmond Bishop via Rob Demovsky of the Press-Gazette.
  • Dave Campbell of the Associated Press looks ahead at the Minnesota Vikings' three-week stay for training camp.
  • The Vikings have signed a total of seven of their draft picks, according to Jeremy Fowler of the St. Paul Pioneer Press.
Those of you who have been stressing the Minnesota Vikings' slow-moving rookie contract negotiations can rest easier. The team announced Tuesday the signing of six draft picks, including fourth-round receivers Jarius Wright and Greg Childs, and have four to go with a mere two months remaining before training camp.

Here's an division-wide update:

Chicago Bears: Draft class signed.

Detroit Lions: First-round offensive lineman Riley Reiff is only unsigned rookie.

Green Bay Packers: Draft class signed.

Minnesota Vikings: First-round offensive lineman Matt Kalil and safety Harrison Smith, third-round cornerback Josh Robinson and fourth-round tight end Rhett Ellison are unsigned.

NFC North chat alert

May, 22, 2012
May 22
10:20
AM ET
There will be no suckerpunches in this week's NFC North chat. You can turn away for a moment and feel confident in your personal safety. Please join me over at 2 p.m. ET for our weekly sparring session.
We're Black and Blue All Over:

The Detroit Lions had a busy news day Monday. We noted both the charity of quarterback Matthew Stafford and the poor behavior of receiver Titus Young, but that left out plenty of other tidbits.

Running backs Jahvid Best (concussion) and Mikel Leshoure (Achilles) were both on the field, participating in a limited portion of the Lions' opening organized team activity (OTA) of the offseason. So was rookie receiver Ryan Broyles, who is six months removed from major knee surgery.

Middle linebacker Stephen Tulloch, meanwhile, didn't practice because of knee tendinitis and might not be back on the field until training camp. That's a bit of a disconcerting turn of events for a player so critical to the Lions' 2011 improvement, but keep in mind that Tulloch hasn't missed a game in his six-year career.

Continuing around the NFC North:
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ESPN's Josina Anderson spent some time recently with Minnesota Vikings tailback Adrian Peterson in Houston, where Peterson is conducting part of his rehabilitation from knee surgery. This clip offers some higher-quality footage of his work than I was able to provide via Twitter a few weeks ago.

Asked how likely it is that he will be on the field for the Vikings' Week 1 game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Peterson said: "Ultimately I'm going to be smart and do what's best for me. I know my body. I know if once that Week 1 comes, regular season, if I'm going to be able to go out and perform the way I know I need to. And I know I'm going to be able to do that."

Earlier: Peterson's career arc isn't lining up with the timing of the Vikings' latest rebuilding project.
We're Black and Blue All Over:

Good Monday morning to everyone. It doesn't get a whole lot bigger than the first week of organized team activities, or OTAs as we call them in the business, and that's exactly the point we've reached in the NFL offseason.

The Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers have scheduled their first OTAs of the spring for Monday, and the Chicago Bears will have one Tuesday. The Minnesota Vikings will open OTAs a week from Tuesday. Over on our NFL Nation blog, we have a comprehensive schedule of all 32 team's OTA schedules.

For newcomers, OTAs are on-field practices without pads or (presumably) contact. Some are open to the media, so expect to see some coverage in the coming days of how your favorite players are performing in jerseys and shorts.

Before we move on to our morning roundup, I want to thank everyone for their feedback to Friday's post on our blog operations. If you missed the post and/or want to share further thoughts about what you like and don't like, by all means hit up the mailbag.

OK, now, continuing around the NFC North:
I spent a good part of this week reviewing not only the past year on this blog but also some of our daily and weekly events that have become routine over time. I have some thoughts and ideas, but first I want to hear from you.

As NFC East readers did earlier this week for colleague Dan Graziano, I want your unvarnished take on what you like about this blog, what you don't like and how you want it to change and evolve. I can't guarantee any particular tweak, but this is certainly the time of year to consider them.

Use the comments section or the mailbag, and don't worry about hurting my feelings, which clearly has never been a concern for most of you in the past. A few points to get your brains moving:

How important is the early-morning BBAO post? I initially conceived it to simulate the traditional act of reading the newspaper and catching up on news first thing. Nowadays, however, the news cycle isn't the same. Newspapers post stories on their sites all day long, as do Internet-only organizations. So does it matter if BBAO is posted in the morning, afternoon or evening? Or do you need it at all?

Has "Have at It" run its course? During the season, we try to have a weekly debate post on a topical NFC North issue. Some weeks are stronger than others, and toward the end of last season participation fell off. Are you bored with it or ready to attack it for another season?

Should we freshen up the "Free Head Exam?" I like the idea of reviewing games on Monday, but is there is a different way to do it?

What would you like to see from ESPN Stats & Information? We added playing time this year to the reams of data I can filter out for you. In previous years, you've seemed particularly receptive to blitz percentages, air yards and drops, among other categories. What other details can I mine for you?

Is there anything we can do together during games? My general sense is that if you're connected to the Internet during games, it's to check fantasy stats. Is there anything we can do on the blog to run parallel to that?

What, if anything, should we be doing on social media that we aren't already? We're relatively fluent in Twitter and Facebook. Are the interaction levels good enough? More? Less? Do many of you go to Google+? I have a Google+ account but don't really know what it's for. You're not going to make me do Pinterest, are you?

Those are just a few quick points to get the juices flowing. Let me know what you think, if you are in fact thinking here on a Friday afternoon.
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