If they franchise Flynn and attempt to trade him, they would probably open the bidding with a first-round pick and hope to settle for a second-rounder. But if they do nothing and allow Flynn to depart free agency, then the Packers would probably receive a third-round compensatory pick in 2013.
So would the difference between one round of draft pick compensation be worth the trouble and risk of going through the franchise process? That's one of the questions we'll try to ask general manager Ted Thompson when he speaks to reporters Friday.
Compensatory picks are impossible to predict with 100 percent accuracy, but Clayton is assuming the Packers would get premium value based on the long-term contract Flynn would eventually sign and the likelihood that the Packers won't sign any free agents of their own. Stay tuned.